Clearing the cloudy crystal balls: Hybrid modelling for energy and climate change mitigation scenarios – A case study for Portugal

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ambiente

Application of multivariate statistical process control to fuel cell manufacturing

Univariate statistical control charts, such as the Shewhart chart, do not satisfy the requirements for process monitoring on a high volume automated fuel cell manufacturing line. This is because of the number of variables that require monitoring. The risk of elevated false alarms, due to the nature of the process being high volume, can present problems if univariate methods are used. Multivariate statistical methods are discussed as an alternative for process monitoring and control. The research presented is conducted on a manufacturing line which evaluates the performance of a fuel cell. It has three stages of production assembly that contribute to the final end product performance. The product performance is assessed by power and energy measurements, taken at various time points throughout the discharge testing of the fuel cell. The literature review performed on these multivariate techniques are evaluated using individual and batch observations. Modern techniques using multivariate control charts on Hotellings T2 are compared to other multivariate methods, such as Principal Components Analysis (PCA). The latter, PCA, was identified as the most suitable method. Control charts such as, scores, T2 and DModX charts, are constructed from the PCA model. Diagnostic procedures, using Contribution plots, for out of control points that are detected using these control charts, are also discussed. These plots enable the investigator to perform root cause analysis. Multivariate batch techniques are compared to individual observations typically seen on continuous processes. Recommendations, for the introduction of multivariate techniques that would be appropriate for most high volume processes, are also covered.

Conceiving Comparative Policy Analysis : Implementing Air Quality Improvement Programs

The comparative analysis of air quality control policies provides an interesting field for studies of comparative policy analysis including program formulation and implementation processes. In European countries, the problem is comparable, whereas implementation structures, programs and policy impacts vary to a considerable extent. Analysis testing possibilities and constraints of air control policies under varying conditions are likely to contribute to a further development of a theory of policy analysis. This paper presents the analytical framework applied in a continuing empirical study explaining program formulation and implementation processes with respect to the different actors involved. Concrete emitter behavior can be explained by interaction processes at the very local level, by program elements of national legislation, and by structural constraints under which such programs are produced.

Fertilization response likelihood for the interpretation of leaf analyses

Leaf analysis is the chemical evaluation of the nutritional status where the nutrient concentrations found in the tissue reflect the nutritional status of the plants. Thus, a correct interpretation of the results of leaf analysis is fundamental for an effective use of this tool. The purpose of this study was to propose and compare the method of Fertilization Response Likelihood (FRL) for interpretation of leaf analysis with that of the Diagnosis and Recommendation Integrated System (DRIS). The database consisted of 157 analyses of the N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn, and B concentrations in coffee leaves, which were divided into two groups: low yield (< 30 bags ha-1) and high yield (> 30 bags ha-1). The DRIS indices were calculated using the method proposed by Jones (1981). The fertilization response likelihood was computed based on the approximation of normal distribution. It was found that the Fertilization Response Likelihood (FRL) allowed an evaluation of the nutritional status of coffee trees, coinciding with the DRIS-based diagnoses in 84.96 % of the crops.

Sieve Analysis of Combined Aggregate Samples by Different Test Methods, MLR-84-05, 1982

This past winter the sieve analysis of combined aggregate was investigated. This study was given No. 26 by the Central Laboratory. The purpose of this work was to try and develop a sieve analysis procedure for combined aggregate which is less time consuming and has the same accuracy as the method described in I.M. 304. In an attempt to use a variety of aggregates for this investigation, a request was made to each District Materials Office to obtain at least 3 different combined aggregate samples in their respective districts. At the same time it was also requested that the field technician test these samples, prior to submitting them to the Central Laboratory. The field technician was instructed to test each sample as described in method I.M. 304 and also by a modified AASHTO T27 method which will be identified in the report as Method A. The modified AASHTO Method A was identical to T27 with the exception that a smaller sample is used for testing. The field technicians submitted the samples, test results and also comments regarding the modified AASHTO procedure. The general comments of the modified AASHTO procedure were: The method was much simpler to follow; however, it took about the same amount of time so there was no real advantage. After reviewing AASHTO T27, T164, I.M. 304 and Report No. FHWA-RD-77-53 another test method was purposed. Report No. FHWA-RD-77-53 is a report prepared by FHWA from data they gathered concerning control practices and shortcut or alternative test methods for aggregate gradation. A second test method was developed which also was very similar to AASHTO T27, The test procedure for this method is attached and is identified as Method B. The following is a summary of test results submitted by the Field Technicians and obtained by the aggregate section of the Central Laboratory.

Gas exchange, phisiological indexes and ionic accumulation in Annona emarginata (Schltdl.) H. Rainer seedlings in nutrients solution

"Araticum-de-terra-fria" (Annona emarginata (Schltdl.) H. Rainer) has been consider a good alternative in rootstock production for the main commercial Annonaceae species. Although this species develops in different soil and climate conditions, there is no understanding by the physiological responses of this species at different nutritional levels. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of different ionic strengths on development of vegetative species known as "Araticum-de-terra-fria". It was evaluated in seedlings grown in different ionic strengths (25% I, 50% I, 75% I and 100% I) of the complete nutrient solution Hoagland and Arnon (1950) nº 2, for 140 days, the following characteristics: Gas Exchange (CO2 assimilation rate, stomatal conductance, internal CO2 concentration, transpiration rate, water use efficiency, Rubisco carboxylation efficiency); Vegetative growth characteristics (diameter, leaf number, dry matter); Physiological Indexes (leaf area ratio, specific leaf area, relative growth rate, net assimilation rate, leaf weight ratio) and Ionic Accumulation (nutrients leaf analysis). Seedlings grown under 50% I showed the highest values of Leaf CO2 assimilation rate, water use efficiency, carboxylation efficiency, growth, relative growth rate, net assimilation rate and ionic accumulation in the total dry matter. So it is concluded that "Araticum-de-terra-fria" seedlings grown under intermediate nutrient concentrations of complete nutrient solution Hoagland and Arnon (1950) nº 2, explored more adequately their physiological potential that justify their adaptation in different nutritional conditions and allow reducing the amount of mineral nutrition of seedlings production.

The causal factors of international inequality in CO2 emissions per capita: a regression-based inequality decomposition analysis

This paper uses the possibilities provided by the regression-based inequality decomposition (Fields, 2003) to explore the contribution of different explanatory factors to international inequality in CO2 emissions per capita. In contrast to previous emissions inequality decompositions, which were based on identity relationships (Duro and Padilla, 2006), this methodology does not impose any a priori specific relationship. Thus, it allows an assessment of the contribution to inequality of different relevant variables. In short, the paper appraises the relative contributions of affluence, sectoral composition, demographic factors and climate. The analysis is applied to selected years of the period 1993–2007. The results show the important (though decreasing) share of the contribution of demographic factors, as well as a significant contribution of affluence and sectoral composition.

Multivariate study of Nile tilapia byproducts enriched with omega-3 and dried with different methods

Abstract The present work aimed at studying the effect of different drying methods applied to tilapia byproducts (heads, viscera and carcasses) fed with flaxseed, verifying the contents of omega-3 fatty acids. Two diets were given to the tilapia: a control and a flaxseed formulation, over the course of 60 days. After this period, they were slaughtered and their byproducts (heads, viscera and carcasses) were collected. These fish parts were analyzed in natura, lyophilized and oven dried. Byproducts from tilapia fed with flaxseed presented docosapentaenoic, eicopentaenoic and docosahexanoic fatty acids as a result of the enzymatic metabolism of the fish. The byproducts from the oven drying process had lower levels of polyunsaturated fatty acids. In the multivariate analysis, the byproducts from fish fed with flaxseed had a greater composition of fatty acids. The addition of flaxseed in fish diets, as well as the utilization of their byproducts, may become a good business strategy. Additionally, the byproducts may be dried to facilitate transport and storage.

L’incidence du programme Vers le pacifique sur les buts de maîtrise et le sentiment d’appartenance à l’école

La présente étude avait pour but de déterminer si un programme de prévention de la violence par l’entraînement aux habiletés en résolution de conflits et en médiation pouvait avoir une incidence sur la motivation scolaire et le sentiment d’appartenance à l’école. De par ses trois missions fondamentales (instruire, qualifier et socialiser), l’école québécoise est pour l’élève à la fois un milieu de vie et un milieu d’apprentissage. Toutefois, des problèmes de comportement et de motivation à apprendre peuvent freiner la réussite de certains jeunes. Pour remédier à la situation, des programmes visant à améliorer le comportement des élèves et à prévenir la violence à l’école ont été mis sur pied et évalués, indiquant une amélioration de certains comportements. Quelques études ont aussi noté une corrélation entre ces programmes et la motivation à apprendre. Sachant que l’adoption de buts de maîtrise et le sentiment d’appartenance à l’école sont des variables qui agissent positivement sur la motivation à apprendre, il est pertinent de se demander si un tel programme peut avoir une incidence sur ces variables. Des analyses secondaires de données issues du Rapport final d’évaluation des impacts du programme Vers le pacifique pour les quatre années de sa mise en œuvre (Bowen, 2006) ont été effectuées afin de vérifier si le programme Vers le Pacifique avait un impact sur les buts de maîtrise et le sentiment d’appartenance et déterminer quels comportements appris grâce au programme agissaient sur ces deux mêmes variables. De plus, le sexe des participants, ainsi que le niveau d’implantation du programme dans les écoles, ont été considérés dans les analyses. Les résultats aux analyses de variance ont révélé que le programme Vers le pacifique n’avait pas d’incidence sur les buts de maîtrise et le sentiment d’appartenance. Peu importe le groupe et le sexe, les buts de maîtrise et le sentiment d’appartenance ont diminué au deuxième temps de mesure. Toutefois, un des comportements appris grâce à Vers le pacifique, la gestion des émotions, agit positivement sur l’adoption de buts de maîtrise. À la lumière de ces résultats, qui cadrent avec certaines théories présentes dans la littérature, il est recommandé aux praticiens d’intégrer de manière plus explicite un volet motivationnel au programme Vers le pacifique, dans le but de contrer la diminution des buts de maîtrise et du sentiment d’appartenance et ainsi favoriser le développement de la motivation à apprendre et la réussite scolaire.

Code clones in program test sequence identification

Code clones are portions of source code which are similar to the original program code. The presence of code clones is considered as a bad feature of software as the maintenance of software becomes difficult due to the presence of code clones. Methods for code clone detection have gained immense significance in the last few years as they play a significant role in engineering applications such as analysis of program code, program understanding, plagiarism detection, error detection, code compaction and many more similar tasks. Despite of all these facts, several features of code clones if properly utilized can make software development process easier. In this work, we have pointed out such a feature of code clones which highlight the relevance of code clones in test sequence identification. Here program slicing is used in code clone detection. In addition, a classification of code clones is presented and the benefit of using program slicing in code clone detection is also mentioned in this work.

Formas de poblamiento y desigualdades en los desplazamientos. La evolución de la movilidad cotidiana en dos periferias populares de Bogotá: Soacha y Madrid (1993-2009)

Este estudio trata sobre la evolución de la movilidad cotidiana en dos municipios que ilustran la diversidad de las periferias populares de Bogotá: Soacha está integrado al mercado residencial y laboral de Bogotá, mientras Madrid conserva cierta autonomía. Ambos han entrado hoy día en una fase de “maduración urbana”, que se traduce en una diversificación de su composición demográfica, en una consolidación de lo construido, en un cierto arraigo residencial de sus habitantes y en un mejoramiento de la oferta local de empleos y servicios, entre los que se encuentra el de educación. El análisis de los censos realizados por el Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadísticas (DANE) en 1993 y 2005 y de unas encuestas específicas sobre movilidad (1993, 2009) muestra una relativa homogeneización de la composición social de los municipios, la cual contrasta con el recrudecimiento de las desigualdades de movilidad cotidiana, particularmente en Soacha. Estas desigualdades nos solo reflejan las jerarquías sociales, s  o también los efectos del género y de la edad, pues se observan diferencias importantes entre individuos de un mismo hogar.

Spatio-temporal surface soil heat flux estimates from satellite data: results for the AMMA experiment at the Fakara (Niger) supersite

This paper describes a method that employs Earth Observation (EO) data to calculate spatiotemporal estimates of soil heat flux, G, using a physically-based method (the Analytical Method). The method involves a harmonic analysis of land surface temperature (LST) data. It also requires an estimate of near-surface soil thermal inertia; this property depends on soil textural composition and varies as a function of soil moisture content. The EO data needed to drive the model equations, and the ground-based data required to provide verification of the method, were obtained over the Fakara domain within the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) program. LST estimates (3 km × 3 km, one image 15 min−1) were derived from MSG-SEVIRI data. Soil moisture estimates were obtained from ENVISAT-ASAR data, while estimates of leaf area index, LAI, (to calculate the effect of the canopy on G, largely due to radiation extinction) were obtained from SPOT-HRV images. The variation of these variables over the Fakara domain, and implications for values of G derived from them, were discussed. Results showed that this method provides reliable large-scale spatiotemporal estimates of G. Variations in G could largely be explained by the variability in the model input variables. Furthermore, it was shown that this method is relatively insensitive to model parameters related to the vegetation or soil texture. However, the strong sensitivity of thermal inertia to soil moisture content at low values of relative saturation (<0.2) means that in arid or semi-arid climates accurate estimates of surface soil moisture content are of utmost importance, if reliable estimates of G are to be obtained. This method has the potential to improve large-scale evaporation estimates, to aid land surface model prediction and to advance research that aims to explain failure in energy balance closure of meteorological field studies.

Thermodynamic efficiency and entropy production in the climate system

We present an outlook on the climate system thermodynamics. First, we construct an equivalent Carnot engine with efficiency and frame the Lorenz energy cycle in a macroscale thermodynamic context. Then, by exploiting the second law, we prove that the lower bound to the entropy production is times the integrated absolute value of the internal entropy fluctuations. An exergetic interpretation is also proposed. Finally, the controversial maximum entropy production principle is reinterpreted as requiring the joint optimization of heat transport and mechanical work production. These results provide tools for climate change analysis and for climate models’ validation.

Climate change: dichotomy of drought and deluge

Freshwater deficits and heavy rainfall have been projected to intensify in a warming climate. An analysis of hydrological data suggests that past changes in wet and dry extremes were more complex than a simple amplification of existing patterns.

EthoSeq: A tool for phylogenetic analysis and data mining in behavioral sequences

This article introduces the software program called EthoSeq, which is designed to extract probabilistic behavioral sequences (tree-generated sequences, or TGSs) from observational data and to prepare a TGS-species matrix for phylogenetic analysis. The program uses Graph Theory algorithms to automatically detect behavioral patterns within the observational sessions. It includes filtering tools to adjust the search procedure to user-specified statistical needs. Preliminary analyses of data sets, such as grooming sequences in birds and foraging tactics in spiders, uncover a large number of TGSs which together yield single phylogenetic trees. An example of the use of the program is our analysis of felid grooming sequences, in which we have obtained 1,386 felid grooming TGSs for seven species, resulting in a single phylogeny. These results show that behavior is definitely useful in phylogenetic analysis. EthoSeq simplifies and automates such analyses, uncovers much of the hidden patterns of long behavioral sequences, and prepares this data for further analysis with standard phylogenetic programs. We hope it will encourage many empirical studies on the evolution of behavior.