Limited information estimation and evaluation of DSGE models

We advance the proposition that dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models should not only be estimated and evaluated with full information methods. These require that the complete system of equations be specified properly. Some limited information analysis, which focuses upon specific equations, is therefore likely to be a useful complement to full system analysis. Two major problems occur when implementing limited information methods. These are the presence of forward-looking expectations in the system as well as unobservable non-stationary variables. We present methods for dealing with both of these difficulties, and illustrate the interaction between full and limited information methods using a well-known model.

A Raman spectroscopic study of copiapites Fe2+Fe3+(SO4)6(OH)2 · 20H2O: environmental implications

Raman spectroscopy has been used to study selected mineral samples of the copiapite group. Copiapite (Fe2+Fe3+(SO4)6(OH)2 · 20H2O) is a secondary mineral formed through the oxidn. of pyrite. Minerals of the copiapite group have the general formula AFe4(SO4)6(OH)2 · 20H2O, where A has a + 2 charge and can be either magnesium, iron, copper, calcium and/or zinc. The formula can also be B2/3Fe4(SO4)6(OH)2 · 20H2O, where B has a + 3 charge and may be either aluminum or iron. For each mineral, two Raman bands are obsd. at around 992 and 1029 cm-1, assigned to the (SO4)2-ν1 sym. stretching mode. The observation of two bands provides evidence for the existence of two non-equiv. sulfate anions in the mineral structure. Three Raman bands at 1112, 1142 and 1161 cm-1 are obsd. in the Raman spectrum of copiapites, indicating a redn. of symmetry of the sulfate anion in the copiapite structure. This redn. in symmetry is supported by multiple bands in the ν2 and ν4(SO4)2- spectral regions.

Strategy use of children with Down syndrome in a delay of gratification situation

Background: The capacity to delay gratification has been shown to be a very important developmental task for children who are developing typically. There is evidence that children with Down syndrome have more difficulty with a delay of gratification task than typically developing children of the same mental age. This study focused on the strategies children with Down syndrome use while in a delay of gratification situation to ascertain if these contribute to the differences in delay times from those of typically developing children. Method: Thirty-two children with Down syndrome (15 females) and 50 typically developing children participated in the study. Children with Down syndrome had a mental age, as measured by the Stanford-Binet IV, between 36 and 66 months (M = 45.66). The typically developing children had a mean chronological age of 45.76 months. Children participated in a delay of gratification task where they were offered two or one small treats and asked which they preferred. They were then told that they could have the two treats if they waited for the researcher to return (an undisclosed time of 15 min). If they did not want to wait any longer they could call the researcher back but then they could have only one treat. Twenty-two of the children with Down syndrome and 43 of the typically developing children demonstrated understanding of the task and their data are included here. Sessions were videotaped for later analysis. Results: There were significant differences in the mean waiting times of the two groups. The mean of the waiting times for children with Down syndrome was 181.32 s (SD = 347.62) and was 440.21 s (SD = 377.59) for the typically developing children. Eighteen percent of the group with Down syndrome waited for the researcher to return in comparison to 35% of the typically developing group. Sixty-four percent of children with Down syndrome called the researcher back and the remainder (18%) violated. In the typically developing group 37% called the researcher back and 28% violated. The mean waiting time for the group of children with Down syndrome who called the researcher back was 24 s. Examination of strategy use in this group was therefore very limited. There appeared to be quite similar strategy use across the groups who waited the full 15 min. Conclusions: These results confirm the difficulty children with Down syndrome have in delaying gratification. Teaching strategies for waiting, using information drawn from the behaviours of children who are developing typically may be a useful undertaking. Examination of other contributors to delay ability (e.g., language skills) is also likely to be helpful in understanding the difficulties demonstrated in delaying gratification.

An invasive grass shows colonization advantages over native grasses under conditions of low resource availability

Increased or fluctuating resources may facilitate opportunities for invasive exotic plants to dominate. This hypothesis does not, however, explain how invasive species succeed in regions characterized by low resource conditions or how these species persist in the lulls between high resource periods. We compare the growth of three co-occurring C4 perennial bunchgrasses under low resource conditions: an exotic grass, Eragrostis curvula (African lovegrass) and two native grasses, Themeda triandra and Eragrostis sororia. We grew each species over 12 weeks under low nutrients and three low water regimes differentiated by timing: continuous, pulsed, and mixed treatments (switched from continuous to pulsed and back to continuous). Over time, we measured germination rates, time to germination (first and second generations), height, root biomass, vegetative biomass, and reproductive biomass. Contrary to our expectations that the pulsed watering regime would favor the invader, water-supply treatments had little significant effect on plant growth. We did find inherent advantages in a suite of early colonization traits that likely favor African lovegrass over the natives including faster germination speed, earlier flowering times, faster growth rates and from 2 weeks onward it was taller. African lovegrass also showed similar growth allocation strategies to the native grasses in terms of biomass levels belowground, but produced more vegetative biomass than kangaroo grass. Overall our results suggest that even under low resource conditions invasive plant species like African lovegrass can grow similarly to native grasses, and for some key colonization traits, like germination rate, perform better than natives.

Large igneous provinces and silicic large igneous provinces : progress in our understanding over the last 25 years

Large Igneous Provinces are exceptional intraplate igneous events throughout Earth’s history. Their significance and potential global impact is related to the total volume of magma intruded and released during these geologically brief events (peak eruptions are often within 1-5 Myrs duration) where millions to tens of millions of cubic kilometers of magma are produced. In some cases, at least 1% of the Earth’s surface has been directly covered in volcanic rock, being equivalent to the size of small continents with comparable crustal thicknesses. Large Igneous Provinces are thus important, albeit episodic episodes of new crust addition. However, most magmatism is basaltic so that contributions to crustal growth will not always be picked up in zircon geochronology studies that better trace major episodes of extension-related silicic magmatism and the silicic Large Igneous Provinces. Much headway has been made on our understanding of these anomalous igneous events over the last 25 years, driving many new ideas and models. This includes their: 1) global spatial and temporal distribution, with a long-term average of one event approximately every 20 Myrs, but a clear clustering of events at times of supercontinent break-up – Large Igneous Provinces are thus an integral part of the Wilson cycle and are becoming an increasingly important tool in reconnecting dispersed continental fragments; 2) compositional diversity that in part reflects their crustal setting of ocean basins, and continental interiors and margins where in the latter setting, LIP magmatism can be silicicdominant; 3) mineral and energy resources with major PGE and precious metal resources being hosted in these provinces, as well as magmatism impacting on the hydrocarbon potential of volcanic basins and rifted margins through enhancing source rock maturation, providing fluid migration pathways, and trap formation; 4) biospheric, hydrospheric and atmospheric impacts, with Large Igneous Provinces now widely regarded as a key trigger mechanism for mass extinctions, although the exact kill mechanism(s) are still being resolved; 5) role in mantle geodynamics and thermal evolution of the Earth, by potentially recording the transport of material from the lower mantle or core-mantle boundary to the Earth's surface and being a fundamental component in whole mantle convection models; and 6) recognition on the inner planets where the lack of plate tectonics and erosional processes and planetary antiquity means that the very earliest record of LIP events during planetary evolution may be better preserved than on Earth.

Electron microscopy of micron-sized lunar soil

We have performed electron-microscopic analysis on 0.5-1.0µm grains in order to study radiation damage by the solar-wind. We are reporting some interesting results we have found in monomineralic grains from core sample 15010,1130. This is a submature soil which has been studied for rare gas abundance and ferromagnetic resonance by (1) and modal petrology by (2).

Measurement of environmental constructs in disability assessment instruments

The International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) assumes a biopsychosocial basis for disability and provides a framework for understanding how environmental factors contribute to the experience of disability. To determine the utility of prevalent disability assessment instruments, the authors examined the extent to which a range of such instruments addressed the impact of environmental factors on the individual and whether the instruments designed for different disability groups focused differentially on the environment. Items from 20 widely used disability assessment instruments were linked to the five chapters of the ICF environment component using standardized classification rules. Nineteen of the 20 instruments reviewed measured the environment to varying degrees. It was determined that environmental factors from the Natural Environment and Attitudes chapters were not well accommodated by the majority of instruments. Instruments developed for people with intellectual disabilities had the greatest environmental coverage. Only one instrument provided a relatively comprehensive and economical account of environmental barriers. The authors conclude that ICF classification of environmental factors provides a valuable resource for evaluating the environmental content of existing disability-related instruments, and that it may also provide a useful framework for revising instruments in use and for developing future disability assessment instruments.

Cascaded DC-DC converter connection of photovoltaic modules

New residential scale photovoltaic (PV) arrays are commonly connected to the grid by a single dc-ac inverter connected to a series string of pv panels, or many small dc-ac inverters which connect one or two panels directly to the ac grid. This paper proposes an alternative topology of nonisolated per-panel dc-dc converters connected in series to create a high voltage string connected to a simplified dc-ac inverter. This offers the advantages of a "converter-per-panel" approach without the cost or efficiency penalties of individual dc-ac grid connected inverters. Buck, boost, buck-boost, and Cu´k converters are considered as possible dc-dc converters that can be cascaded. Matlab simulations are used to compare the efficiency of each topology as well as evaluating the benefits of increasing cost and complexity. The buck and then boost converters are shown to be the most efficient topologies for a given cost, with the buck best suited for long strings and the boost for short strings. While flexible in voltage ranges, buck-boost, and Cu´k converters are always at an efficiency or alternatively cost disadvantage.

Late Oligocene to Middle Miocene rifting and synextensional magmatism in the southwestern Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico : the beginning of the Gulf of California rift

Although Basin and Range–style extension affected large areas of western Mexico after the Late Eocene, most consider that extension in the Gulf of California region began as subduction waned and ended ca. 14–12.5 Ma. A general consensus also exists in considering Early and Middle Miocene volcanism of the Sierra Madre Occidental and Comondú Group as subduction related, whereas volcanism after ca. 12.5 Ma is extension related. Here we present a new regional geologic study of the eastern Gulf of California margin in the states of Nayarit and Sinaloa, Mexico, backed by 43 new Ar-Ar and U-Pb mineral ages, and geochemical data that document an earlier widespread phase of extension. This extension across the southern and central Gulf Extensional Province began between Late Oligocene and Early Miocene time, but was focused in the region of the future Gulf of California in the Middle Miocene. Late Oligocene to Early Miocene rocks across northern Nayarit and southern Sinaloa were affected by major approximately north-south– to north-northwest– striking normal faults prior to ca. 21 Ma. Between ca. 21 and 11 Ma, a system of north-northwest–south-southeast high angle extensional faults continued extending the southwestern side of the Sierra Madre Occidental. Rhyolitic domes, shallow intrusive bodies, and lesser basalts were emplaced along this extensional belt at 20–17 Ma. Rhyolitic rocks, in particular the domes and lavas, often show strong antecrystic inheritance but only a few Mesozoic or older xenocrysts, suggesting silicic magma generation in the mid-upper crust triggered by an extension induced basaltic infl ux. In northern Sinaloa, large grabens were occupied by huge volcanic dome complexes ca. 21–17 Ma and filled by continental sediments with interlayered basalts dated as 15–14 Ma, a stratigraphy and timing very similar to those found in central Sonora (northeastern Gulf of California margin). Early to Middle Miocene volcanism occurred thus in rift basins, and was likely associated with decompression melting of upper mantle (inducing crustal partial melting) rather than with fluxing by fluids from the young and slow subducting microplates. Along the eastern side of the Gulf of California coast, from Farallón de San Ignacio island offshore Los Mochis, Sinaloa, to San Blas, Nayarit, a strike distance of >700 km, flat lying basaltic lavas dated as ca. 11.5–10 Ma are exposed just above the present sea level. Here crustal thickness is almost half that in the unextended core of the adjacent Sierra Madre Occidental, implying signifi cant lithosphere stretching before ca. 11 Ma. This mafic pulse, with subdued Nb-Ta negative spikes, may be related to the detachment of the lower part of the subducted slab, allowing an upward asthenospheric flow into an upper mantle previously modified by fluid fluxes related to past subduction. Widespread eruption of very uniform oceanic island basalt–like lavas occurred by the late Pliocene and Pleistocene, only 20 m.y. after the onset of rifting and ~9 m.y. after the end of subduction, implying that preexisting subduction-modified mantle had now become isolated from melt source regions. Our study shows that rifting across the southern-central Gulf Extensional Province began much earlier than the Late Miocene and provided a fundamental control on the style and composition of volcanism from at least 30 Ma. We envision a sustained period of lithospheric stretching and magmatism during which the pace and breadth of extension changed ca. 20–18 Ma to be narrower, and again after ca. 12.5 Ma, when the kinematics of rifting became more oblique.

Buckling experiments on hollow flange beams with web stiffeners

The hollow flange beam (HFB) is a new cold-formed and resistance-welded section developed in Australia. Due to its unique geometry comprising two stiff triangular flanges and a slender web, the HFB is susceptible to a lateral-distortional buckling mode of failure involving web distortion. Investigation using finite-element analyses showed that the use of transverse web plate stiffeners effectively eliminated lateral-distortional buckling of HFBs and thus any associated reduction in flexural capacity. A detailed experimental investigation was then carried out to validate the results from the finite-element analysis and to improve the stiffener configuration further. This led to the development of a special stiffener that is screw-fastened to the flanges on alternate sides of the web. This paper presents the details of the experimental investigations, the results, and the final stiffener arrangement whereas the details of the finite-element analyses are presented in a companion paper.

Evolving progress in oncologic and operative outcomes for esophageal and junctional cancer : lessons from the experience of a high-volume center

Objective: Modern series from high-volume esophageal centers report an approximate 40% 5-year survival in patients treated with curative intent and postoperative mortality rates of less than 4%. An objective analysis of factors that underpin current benchmarks within high-volume centers has not been performed. Methods: Three time periods were studied, 1990 to 1998 (period 1), 1999 to 2003 (period 2), and 2004 to 2008 (period 3), in which 471, 254, and 342 patients, respectively, with esophageal cancer were treated with curative intent. All data were prospectively recorded, and staging, pathology, treatment, operative, and oncologic outcomes were compared. Results: Five-year disease-specific survival was 28%, 35%, and 44%, and in-hospital postoperative mortality was 6.7%, 4.4%, and 1.7% for periods 1 to 3, respectively (P < .001). Period 3, compared with periods 1 and 2, respectively, was associated with significantly (P < .001) more early tumors (17% vs 4% and 6%), higher nodal yields (median 22 vs 11 and 18), and a higher R0 rate in surgically treated patients (81% vs 73% and 75%). The use of multimodal therapy increased (P < .05) across time periods. By multivariate analysis, age, T stage, N stage, vascular invasion, R status, and time period were significantly (P < .0001) associated with outcome. Conclusions: Improved survival with localized esophageal cancer in the modern era may reflect an increase of early tumors and optimized staging. Important surgical and pathologic standards, including a higher R0 resection rate and nodal yields, and lower postoperative mortality, were also observed. Copyright © 2012 by The American Association for Thoracic Surgery.

Exposure to ambient heat and urolithiasis among outdoor workers in Guangzhou, China

Objectives: To assess the impact of exposure to ambient heat on urolithiasis among outdoor workers in a subtropical city of China. Methods: The 2003–2010 health check data of a shipbuilding company in Guangzhou, China were acquired. 190 cases and 760 matched controls were involved in this study. We assessed the relationship between exposure to ambient heat and urolithiasis for different occupations using conditional logistic regression. Results: Spray painters were most likely to develop urolithiasis (OR = 4.4; 95% CI: 1.7, 11.4), followed by smelter workers (OR = 4.0; 95% CI: 1.8, 9.2), welders (OR = 3.7; 95% CI: 1.9, 7.2), production security and quality inspectors (OR = 2.7; 95% CI: 1.4, 3.0), and assemblers (OR = 2.2; 95% CI: 1.1, 4.3). Overall, outdoor workers were more likely to present with urolithiasis compared with indoor employees (p b 0.05). In addition, workers with longer cumulative exposure time (OR = 1.5; 95% CI: 1.2, 1.8) and abnormal blood pressure (OR = 1.6; 95% CI: 1.0, 2.5) had higher risk for urolithiasis. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate a significant association between exposure to ambient heat and urolithiasis among outdoor working populations. Public health intervention strategies should be developed to specifically target outdoor occupations.

Do children and adolescents with Down syndrome have deficits in motivation?

There appears to be a general acceptance that individuals with intellectual disability (ID) have deficits in motivation. Yet research with infants and young children has usually identified few differences in motivation for children with ID compared with those of the same mental age who are developing typically. Studies of motivation in children with ID in the middle years of childhood or adolescence are almost non-existent. However, research conducted more than 30 years ago (Harter & Zigler, 1974) continues to be cited as evidence of motivational deficits in those with ID even though the life experiences of people with ID have changed dramatically since that time.

Low delta18O zircon grains in the Neoarchean Rum Jungle Complex, northern Australia: An indicator of emergent continental crust

The timing of widespread continental emergence is generally considered to have had a dramatic effect on the hydrological cycle, atmospheric conditions, and climate. New secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) oxygen and laser-ablation–multicollector–inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry (LA-MC-ICP-MS) Lu-Hf isotopic results from dated zircon grains in the granitic Neoarchean Rum Jungle Complex provide a minimum time constraint on the emergence of continental crust above sea level for the North Australian craton. A 2535 ± 7 Ma monzogranite is characterized by magmatic zircon with slightly elevated δ18O (6.0‰–7.5‰ relative to Vienna standard mean ocean water [VSMOW]), consistent with some contribution to the magma from reworked supracrustal material. A supracrustal contribution to magma genesis is supported by the presence of metasedimentary rock enclaves, a large population of inherited zircon grains, and subchondritic zircon Hf (εHf = −6.6 to −4.1). A separate, distinct crustal source to the same magma is indicated by inherited zircon grains that are dominated by low δ18O values (2.5‰–4.8‰, n = 9 of 15) across a range of ages (3536–2598 Ma; εHf = −18.2 to +0.4). The low δ18O grains may be the product of one of two processes: (1) grain-scale diffusion of oxygen in zircon by exchange with a low δ18O magma or (2) several episodes of magmatic reworking of a Mesoarchean or older low δ18O source. Both scenarios require shallow crustal magmatism in emergent crust, to allow interaction with rocks altered by hydrothermal meteoric water in order to generate the low δ18O zircon. In the first scenario, assimilation of these altered rocks during Neoarchean magmatism generated low δ18O magma with which residual detrital zircons were able to exchange oxygen, while preserving their U-Pb systematics. In the second scenario, wholesale melting of the altered rocks occurred in several distinct events through the Mesoarchean, generating low δ18O magma from which zircon crystallized. Ultimately, in either scenario, the low δ18O zircons were entrained as inherited grains in a Neoarchean granite. The data suggest operation of a modern hydrological cycle by the Neoarchean and add to evidence for the increased emergence of continents by this time