Central bank balance sheet concerns and credible optimal escape from the Liquidity trap

I show that when a central bank is financially independent from the treasury and has balance sheet concerns, an increase in the size or a change in the composition of the central bank's balance sheet (quantitative easing) can serve as a commitment device in a liquidity trap scenario. In particular, when the short-term interest rate is up against the zero lower bound, an open market operation by the central bank that involves purchases of long-term bonds can help mitigate the deation and a large negative output gap under a discretionary equilibrium. This is because such an open market operation provides an incentive to the central bank to keep interest rates low in future in order to avoid losses in its balance sheet.

What happens after the Central Bank of Brazil increases the target interbank rate by 1%?

In this paper I use Taylor's (2001) model and Vector Auto Regressions to shed some light on the evolution of some key macroeconomic variables after the Central Bank of Brazil, through the COPOM, increases the target interest rate by 1%. From a quantitative perspective, the best estimate from the empírical analysis, obtained with a 1994 : 2 - 2004 : 2 subsample of the data, is that GDP goes through an accumulated decline, over the next four years, around 0.08%. Innovations to interest rates explain around 9.2% of the forecast erro r of GDP.

Evaluating and classifying contaminated areas based on loss functions using annealing simulations

This paper presents a methodology based on geostatistical theory for quantifying the risks associated with heavy-metal contamination in the harbor area of Santana, Amapa State, Northern Brazil. In this area there were activities related to the commercialization of manganese ore from Serra do Navio. Manganese and arsenic concentrations at unsampled sites were estimated by postprocessing results from stochastic annealing simulations; the simulations were used to test different criteria for optimization, including average, median, and quantiles. For classifying areas as contaminated or uncontaminated, estimated quantiles based on functions of asymmetric loss showed better results than did estimates based on symmetric loss, such as the average or the median. The use of specific loss functions in the decision-making process can reduce the costs of remediation and health maintenance. The highest global health costs were observed for manganese. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Brazil's derivatives markets: hedging, Central Bank intervention and regulation

Includes bibliography

The Central Bank and Chilean macroeconomic policy in the 1990s

Includes bibliography

Central bank independence and its relationship to inflation

Includes bibliography

Financial market reaction to central bank monetary policy communications under an inflation- targeting regime: the case of Brazil

Includes bibliography

Chile's macroeconomic policies in the 1990s as seen from the vantage point of the Central Bank

Includes bibliography