Potential drought stress in a Swiss mountain catchment-Ensemble forecasting of high mountain soil moisture reveals a drastic decrease, despite major uncertainties

Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations.

An Appraisal of the Current Status and the Potential of Surface Water in Upper Anseba Catchment, Eritrea

The study deals with the status and potential of surface water resources in Upper Anseba, Central Highlands of Eritrea, one of the most densely populated regions in Eritrea, including small scale farming and the country's capital city. water demand is increasing rapidly for all uses. The area has no perennial water course and depends very largely on reservoirs for its water supply. The report finds that there are 74 reservoirs in the area, of which 49 are in Upper Anseba. Total reservoir capacity already corresponds to 70% of runoff. the capacity of some of the reservoirs already exceeds annual runoff of their catchment. Recommendations thus include the use of water saving technologies for irrigation; and above all, preparation of a regional master plan for development, including water allocation planning with a mid term perspective.

Discharge data derived from five water level gauges and discharge measurements in the Aguima and Niaou catchment, Benin, West Africa

This paper analyzes the hydrological processes and the impact of soil properties and land use on these processes in tropical headwater catchment in the sub-humid part of Benin (West-Africa), the Aguima catchment. The presented study is integrated in the GLOWA IMPETUS project, which investigates the effects of global change on the water cycle and water availability on a regional scale in Morocco and Benin. The lack of field investigations concerning soil and surface hydrology in the Benin research area necessitates detailed field measurements including measurements of discharge, soil water dynamics, soil physical properties etc. on the local scale in order to understand the dominant runoff generation processes and its influencing factors. This is a pre-requisite to be able to forecast the effects which global change has on hydrological processes and water availability in the region. The paper gives an overview over the hydrologic measuring concept of the IMPETUS-Benin project focusing on measurements concerning the soil saturated conductivity ksat and discharge behaviour of two different sub-catchment of the Aguima catchment. The results of ksat measurements revealed that interflow is the dominant runoff process on the hillslopes of the investigated catchment. Concerning the impact of land use on the hydrological processes infiltration experiments showed that infiltration rates were reduced on cultivated land compared to natural land cover. This results in significant differences in runoff behaviour and runoff ratios while comparing natural and agricultural used catchments.

(Table 1) Basin area, average late-summer speedup, number of sinks and runoff of West Greenland Ice Sheet catchments

We use interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations recorded in a land-terminating sector of western Greenland to characterise the ice sheet surface hydrology and to quantify spatial variations in the seasonality of ice sheet flow. Our data reveal a non-uniform pattern of late-summer ice speedup that, in places, extends over 100 km inland. We show that the degree of late-summer speedup is positively correlated with modelled runoff within the 10 glacier catchments of our survey, and that the pattern of late-summer speedup follows that of water routed at the ice sheet surface. In late-summer, ice within the largest catchment flows on average 48% faster than during winter, whereas changes in smaller catchments are less pronounced. Our observations show that the routing of seasonal runoff at the ice sheet surface plays an important role in shaping the magnitude and extent of seasonal ice sheet speedup.

Conceptual modelling to assess how the interplay of hydrological connectivity, catchment storage and tracer dynamics controls nonstationary water age estimates

Acknowledgements We would like to gratefully acknowledge the data provided by SEPA, Iain Malcolm. Mark Speed, Susan Waldron and many MSS staff helped with sample collection and lab analysis. We thank the European Research Council (project GA 335910 VEWA) for funding and are grateful for the constructive comments provided by three anonymous reviewers.

Landscape influence on small-scale water temperature variations in a moorland catchment

Peer reviewed

Catchment characteristics and soil and water chemistry of the San Francisco basin and subbasins, Ecuador

In this study, the Mean Transit Time and Mixing Model Analysis methods are combined to unravel the runoff generation process of the San Francisco River basin (73.5 km**2) situated on the Amazonian side of the Cordillera Real in the southernmost Andes of Ecuador. The montane basin is covered with cloud forest, sub-páramo, pasture and ferns. Nested sampling was applied for the collection of streamwater samples and discharge measurements in the main tributaries and outlet of the basin, and for the collection of soil and rock water samples. Weekly to biweekly water grab samples were taken at all stations in the period April 2007-November 2008. Hydrometric data, Mean Transit Time and Mixing Model Analysis allowed preliminary evaluation of the processes controlling the runoff in the San Francisco River basin. Results suggest that flow during dry conditions mainly consists of lateral flow through the C-horizon and cracks in the top weathered bedrock layer, and that all subcatchments have an important contribution of this deep water to runoff, no matter whether pristine or deforested. During normal to low precipitation intensities, when antecedent soil moisture conditions favour water infiltration, vertical flow paths to deeper soil horizons with subsequent lateral subsurface flow contribute most to streamflow. Under wet conditions in forested catchments, streamflow is controlled by near surface lateral flow through the organic horizon. Exceptionally, saturation excess overland flow occurs. By absence of the litter layer in pasture, streamflow under wet conditions originates from the A horizon, and overland flow.

Characteristics of soil profiles from the Ouémé Upper Catchment (HVO), Térou, Benin

Soil degradation threatens agricultural production and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. In the coming decades, soil degradation, in particular soil erosion, will become worse through the expansion of agriculture into savannah and forest and changes in climate. This study aims to improve the understanding of how land use and climate change affect the hydrological cycle and soil erosion rates at the catchment scale. We used the semi-distributed, time-continuous erosion model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) to quantify runoff processes and sheet and rill erosion in the Upper Ouémé River catchment (14500 km**2, Central Benin) for the period 1998-2005. We could then evaluate a range of land use and climate change scenarios with the SWAT model for the period 2001-2050 using spatial data from the land use model CLUE-S and the regional climate model REMO. Field investigations were performed to parameterise a soil map, to measure suspended sediment concentrations for model calibration and validation and to characterise erosion forms, degraded agricultural fields and soil conservation practices. Modelling results reveal current "hotspots" of soil erosion in the north-western, eastern and north-eastern parts of the Upper Ouémé catchment. As a consequence of rapid expansion of agricultural areas triggered by high population growth (partially caused by migration) and resulting increases in surface runoff and topsoil erosion, the mean sediment yield in the Upper Ouémé River outlet is expected to increase by 42 to 95% by 2025, depending on the land use scenario. In contrast, changes in climate variables led to decreases in sediment yield of 5 to 14% in 2001-2025 and 17 to 24% in 2026-2050. Combined scenarios showed the dominance of land use change leading to changes in mean sediment yield of -2 to +31% in 2001-2025. Scenario results vary considerably within the catchment. Current "hotspots" of soil erosion will aggravate, and a new "hotspot" will appear in the southern part of the catchment. Although only small parts of the Upper Ouémé catchment belong to the most degraded zones in the country, sustainable soil and plant management practices should be promoted in the entire catchment. The results of this study can support planning of soil conservation activities in Benin.

Pathways utilized by heavy metal pollutants in urban stormwater runoff

The research concerned the assessment of the pathways utilized by heavy metal pollutants in urban stormwater runoff. A separately sewered urban residential catchment of approximately 107 hectares in Chelmsley Wood, north-east Birmingham was the subject of the field investigation. The catchment area, almost entirely residential, had no immediate industrial heavy metal input, however, industry was situated to the north of the catchment. The perimeter of the catchment was bounded by the M6 motorway on the northern and eastern sides and was believed to contribute to aerial deposition. Metal inputs to the ground surface were assumed to be confined to normal suburban activities, namely, aerial deposition, vehicular activity and anthropological activities. A programme of field work was undertaken over a 12 month period, from July 1983 to July 1984. Monthly deposition rates were monitored using a network of deposit cannisters and roadside sediment and soil samples were taken. Stormwater samples were obtained for 19 separate events. All samples were analysed for iron, lead, zinc, copper, chromium, nickel and cadmium content. Rainfall was recorded on site with additional meteorological data obtained from local Meteorological Offices. Use was made of a simple conceptual model designed for the catchment to substantiate hypotheses derived from site investigations and literature, to investigate the pathways utilized for the transportation of heavy metals throughout the catchment.

Spatial organisation of groundwater dynamics and streamflow response from different hydropedological units in a montane catchment

Funding was provided by the Leibniz Association (SAW-2012-IGB 4167) within the International Leibniz Graduate School: Aquatic boundaries and linkages- Aqualink. We would like to thank the NRI staff for their help during field work.

Modeling long-term variability and change of soil moisture and groundwater level - from catchment to global scale

The water stored in and flowing through the subsurface is fundamental for sustaining human activities and needs, feeding water and its constituents to surface water bodies and supporting the functioning of their ecosystems. Quantifying the changes that affect the subsurface water is crucial for our understanding of its dynamics and changes driven by climate change and other changes in the landscape, such as in land-use and water-use. It is inherently difficult to directly measure soil moisture and groundwater levels over large spatial scales and long times. Models are therefore needed to capture the soil moisture and groundwater level dynamics over such large spatiotemporal scales. This thesis develops a modeling framework that allows for long-term catchment-scale screening of soil moisture and groundwater level changes. The novelty in this development resides in an explicit link drawn between catchment-scale hydroclimatic and soil hydraulics conditions, using observed runoff data as an approximation of soil water flux and accounting for the effects of snow storage-melting dynamics on that flux. Both past and future relative changes can be assessed by use of this modeling framework, with future change projections based on common climate model outputs. By direct model-observation comparison, the thesis shows that the developed modeling framework can reproduce the temporal variability of large-scale changes in soil water storage, as obtained from the GRACE satellite product, for most of 25 large study catchments around the world. Also compared with locally measured soil water content and groundwater level in 10 U.S. catchments, the modeling approach can reasonably well reproduce relative seasonal fluctuations around long-term average values. The developed modeling framework is further used to project soil moisture changes due to expected future climate change for 81 catchments around the world. The future soil moisture changes depend on the considered radiative forcing scenario (RCP) but are overall large for the occurrence frequency of dry and wet events and the inter-annual variability of seasonal soil moisture. These changes tend to be higher for the dry events and the dry season, respectively, than for the corresponding wet quantities, indicating increased drought risk for some parts of the world.

Conversion to soy on the Amazonian agricultural frontier increases streamflow without affecting stormflow dynamics

Large-scale soy agriculture in the southern Brazilian Amazon now rivals deforestation for pasture as the region`s predominant form of land use change. Such landscape-level change can have substantial consequences for local and regional hydrology, but these effects remain relatively unstudied in this ecologically and economically important region. We examined how the conversion to soy agriculture influences water balances and stormflows using stream discharge (water yields) and the timing of discharge (stream hydrographs) in small (2.5-13.5 km2) forested and soy headwater watersheds in the Upper Xingu Watershed in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. We monitored water yield for 1 year in three forested and four soy watersheds. Mean daily water yields were approximately four times higher in soy than forested watersheds, and soy watersheds showed greater seasonal variability in discharge. The contribution of stormflows to annual streamflow in all streams was low (< 13% of annual streamflow), and the contribution of stormflow to streamflow did not differ between land uses. If the increases in water yield observed in this study are typical, landscape-scale conversion to soy substantially alters water-balance, potentially altering the regional hydrology over large areas of the southern Amazon.

Influence of land-use change on near-surface hydrological processes: Undisturbed forest to pasture

Soil compaction that follows the clearing of tropical forest for cattle pasture is associated with lower soil hydraulic conductivity and increased frequency and volume of overland flow. We investigated the frequency of perched water tables, overland flow and stormflow in an Amazon forest and in an adjacent 25-year-old pasture cleared from the same forest. We compared the results with the frequencies of these phenomena estimated from comparisons of rainfall intensity and soil hydraulic conductivity. The frequency of perched water tables based on rainfall intensity and soil hydraulic conductivity was expected to double in pasture compared with forest. This corresponded closely with an approximate doubling of the frequency of stormflow and overland flow in pasture. In contrast, the stormflow volume in pasture increased 17-fold. This disproportional increase of stormflow resulted from overland flow generation over large areas of pasture, while overland flow generation in the forest was spatially limited and was observed only very near the stream channel. In both catchments, stormflow was generated by saturation excess because of perched water tables and near-surface groundwater levels. Stormflow was occasionally generated in the forest by rapid return flow from macropores, while slow return flow from a continuous perched water table was more common in the pasture. These results suggest that deforestation for pasture alters fundamental mechanisms of stormflow generation and may increase runoff volumes over wide regions of Amazonia. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cement stabilization of runoff residuals: A study of stabilization/solidification of urban rainfall-runoff residuals in type 1 Portland cement by XRD and Si-29 NMR analysis

Urban rainfall-runoff residuals contain metals such as Cr, Zn, Cu, As, Pb and Cd and are thus reasonable candidates for treatment using Portland cement-based solidification-stabilization (S/S). This research is a study of S/S of urban storm water runoff solid residuals in Portland cement with quicklime and sodium bentonite additives. The solidified residuals were analyzed after 28 days of hydration time using X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) and solid-state Si-29 nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. X-ray diffraction (XRD) results indicate that the main cement hydration products are ettringite, calcium hydroxide and hydrated calcium silicates. Zinc hydroxide and lead and zinc silicates are also present due to the reactions of the waste compounds with the cement and its hydration products. Si-29 NMR analysis shows that the coarse fraction of the waste apparently does not interfere with cement hydration, but the fine fraction retards silica polymerization.