An investigation of multiple pathways of developmental intervention change

Convergence among treatment, prevention, and developmental intervention approaches has led to the recognition of the need for evaluation models and research designs that employ a full range of evaluation information to provide an empirical basis for enhancing the efficiency, efficacy, and effectiveness of prevention and positive development interventions. This study reports an investigation of a positive youth development program using an Outcome Mediation Cascade (OMC) evaluation model, an integrated model for evaluating the empirical intersection between intervention and developmental processes. The Changing Lives Program (CLP) is a community supported positive youth development intervention implemented in a practice setting as a selective/indicated program for multi-ethnic, multi-problem at risk youth in urban alternative high schools. This study used a Relational Data Analysis integration of quantitative and qualitative data analysis strategies, including the use of both fixed and free response measures and a structural equation modeling approach, to construct and evaluate the hypothesized OMC model. Findings indicated that the hypothesized model fit the data (χ2 (7) = 6.991, p = .43; RMSEA = .00; CFI = 1.00; WRMR = .459). Findings also provided preliminary evidence consistent with the hypothesis that in addition to having effects on targeted positive outcomes, PYD interventions are likely to have progressive cascading effects on untargeted problem outcomes that operate through effects on positive outcomes. Furthermore, the general pattern of findings suggested the need to use methods capable of capturing both quantitative and qualitative change in order to increase the likelihood of identifying more complete theory informed empirically supported models of developmental intervention change processes.

Habitat use and foraging ecology of a batoid community in Shark Bay, Western Australia

Worldwide declines in populations of large elasmobranchs and the potential cascading effects on marine ecosystems have garnered considerable attention. Far less appreciated are the potential ecological impacts of changes in abundances of small to medium bodied elasmobranchs mesopredators. Crucial to elucidating the role of these elasmobranchs is an understanding of their habitat use and foraging ecology in pristine conditions. I investigated the trophic interactions and factors driving spatiotemporal variation in abundances of elasmobranch mesopredators in the relatively pristine ecosystem of Shark Bay, Australia. First, I describe the species composition and seasonal habitat use patterns of elasmobranch mesopredator on the sandflats of Shark Bay. Juvenile batoids dominated this diverse community and were extremely abundant in nearshore microhabitats during the warm season. Stomach content analysis and stable isotopic analysis revealed that there is a large degree of dietary overlap between common batoid species. Crustaceans, which tend to be found in seagrass habitats, dominated diets. Despite isotopic differences between many species, overlap in isotopic niche space was high and there was some degree of individual specialization. I then, investigated the importance of abiotic (temperature and water depth) and biotic (prey and predator abundance) factors in shaping batoid habitat use. Batoids were most abundant and tended to rest in shallow nearshore waters when temperatures were high. This pattern coincides with periods of large shark abundance suggesting batoids were seeking refuge from predators rather than selecting optimal temperatures. Finally, I used acoustic telemetry to examine batoid residency and diel use of the sandflats. Individual batoids were present on the sandflats during both the warm and cold seasons and throughout the diel cycle, suggesting lower sandflat densities during the cold season were a result of habitat shifts rather than migration out of Shark Bay. Combined, habitat use and dietary results suggest that batoids have the potential to seasonally impact sandflat dynamics through their presence, although foraging may be limited on the sandflats. Interestingly, my results suggest that elasmobranch mesopredators in pristine ecosystems probably are not regulated by food supply and their habitat use patterns and perhaps ecosystem impacts may be influenced by their predators.

Exploring the role of large predators in marsh food webs: evidence for a behaviorally-mediated trophic cascade

The influence of large predators on lower trophic levels in oligotrophic, structurally complex, and frequently disturbed aquatic environments is generally thought to be limited. We looked for effects of large predators in two semi-permanent, spikerush-dominated marshes by excluding large fish (>12 mm body depth) and similarly sized herpetofauna from 1 m2 cages (exclosures) for 2 weeks. The exclosures allowed for colonization by intermediate (in size and trophic position) consumers, such as small fish, shrimp, and crayfish. Exclosures were compared to control cages that allowed large fish to move freely in and out. At the end of the experiment, intermediate-consumer densities were higher in exclosures than in controls at both sites. Decapod crustaceans, especially the riverine grass shrimp (Palaemonetes paludosus), accounted for the majority of the response. Effects of large fish on shrimp were generally consistent across sites, but per capita effects were sensitive to estimates of predator density. Densities of intermediate consumers in our exclosures were similar to marsh densities, while the open controls had lower densities. This suggests that these animals avoided our experimental controls because they were risky relative to the surrounding environment, while the exclosures were neither avoided nor preferred. Although illuminating about the dynamics of open-cage experiments, this finding does not influence the main results of the study. Small primary consumers (mostly small snails, amphipods, and midges) living on floating periphyton mats and in flocculent detritus (“floc”) were less abundant in the exclosures, indicative of a trophic cascade. Periphyton mat characteristics (i.e., biomass, chlorophyll a, TP) were not clearly or consistently affected by the exclosure, but TP in the floc was lower in exclosures. The collective cascading effects of large predators were consistent at both sites despite differences in drought frequency, stem density, and productivity.

Patterns and ecosystem consequences of shark declines in the ocean

Whereas many land predators disappeared before their ecological roles were studied, the decline of marine apex predators is still unfolding. Large sharks in particular have experienced rapid declines over the last decades. In this study, we review the documented changes in exploited elasmobranch communities in coastal, demersal, and pelagic habitats, and synthesize the effects of sharks on their prey and wider communities. We show that the high natural diversity and abundance of sharks is vulnerable to even light fishing pressure. The decline of large predatory sharks reduces natural mortality in a range of prey, contributing to changes in abundance, distribution, and behaviour of small elasmobranchs, marine mammals, and sea turtles that have few other predators. Through direct predation and behavioural modifications, top-down effects of sharks have led to cascading changes in some coastal ecosystems. In demersal and pelagic communities, there is increasing evidence of mesopredator release, but cascading effects are more hypothetical. Here, fishing pressure on mesopredators may mask or even reverse some ecosystem effects. In conclusion, large sharks can exert strong top-down forces with the potential to shape marine communities over large spatial and temporal scales. Yet more empirical evidence is needed to test the generality of these effects throughout the ocean.

Disturbance and recovery following catastrophic grazing: studies of a successional chronosequence in a seagrass bed

In August 1997, a large aggregation of the common sea urchin, Lytechinus variegatus, was discovered moving southward through a lush and productive seagrass monoculture of Syringodium filiforme in the Florida Keys, FL. Sea urchin densities at the grazing front were greater than 300 individuals m−2 which resulted in the overgrazing of seagrasses and a complete denuding of all vegetation from this area. The steady rate of the grazing front migration permitted the estimation of the time since disturbance for any point behind this grazing front allowing the use of a chronosequence approach to investigate the processes early on in succession of these communities. In May 1999, six north-south parallel transects were established across the disturbed seagrass communities and into the undisturbed areas south of the grazing front. Based on the measured rates of the migration of the grazing front, we grouped 60 sites into five categories (disturbed, recently grazed, active grazing front, stressed and undisturbed). The large scale loss of seagrass biomass initiated community-wide cascading effects that significantly altered resource regimes and species diversity. The loss of the seagrass canopy and subsequent death and decay of the below-ground biomass resulted in a de-stabilization of the sediments. As the sediments were eroded into the water column, turbidity significantly increased, reducing light availability and significantly reducing the sediment nitrogen pool and depleting the seed bank. The portion of the chronosequence that has had the longest period of recovery now consists of a mixed community of seagrass and macroalgae, as remnant survivors and quick colonizers coexist and jointly take advantage of the open space.

Influence of teleost abundance on the distribution and abundance of sharks in Florida Bay, USA

Understanding the factors that influence the distribution and abundance of predators, including sharks, is important for predicting the impacts of human changes to the environment. Such studies are particularly important in Florida Bay, USA where there are planned large-scale changes to patterns of freshwater input from the Everglades ecosystem. Studies of many marine predators suggest that links between predator and prey habitat use may vary with spatial scale, but there have been few studies of the role of prey distribution in shaping habitat use and abundance of sharks. We used longline catches of sharks and trawls for potential teleost prey to determine the influence of teleost abundance on shark abundance at the scale of regions and habitats in Florida Bay. We found that shark catch per unit effort (CPUE) was not linked to CPUE ofteleosts at the scale of sampling sites, but shark CPUE was positively correlated with the mean CPUE for teleosts within a region. Although there does not appear to be a strong match between the abundance of teleosts and sharks at small spatial scales, regional shark abundance is likely driven, at least partially, by the availability of prey. Management strategies that influence teleost abundance will have cascading effects to higher trophic levels in Florida Bay.

Cognitive competence and life course change in multi-problem adolescents

The dissertation reports on two studies. The purpose of Study I was to develop and evaluate a measure of cognitive competence (the Critical Problem Solving Skills Scale – Qualitative Extension) using Relational Data Analysis (RDA) with a multi-ethnic, adolescent sample. My study builds on previous work that has been conducted to provide evidence for the reliability and validity of the RDA framework in evaluating youth development programs (Kurtines et al., 2008). Inter-coder percent agreement among the TOC and TCC coders for each of the category levels was moderate to high, with a range of .76 to .94. The Fleiss' kappa across all category levels was from substantial agreement to almost perfect agreement, with a range of .72 to .91. The correlation between the TOC and the TCC demonstrated medium to high correlation, with a range of r(40)=.68, p<.001 to r(40)=.79, p<.001. Study II reports an investigation of a positive youth development program using an Outcome Mediation Cascade (OMC) evaluation model, an integrated model for evaluating the empirical intersection between intervention and developmental processes. The Changing Lives Program (CLP) is a community supported positive youth development intervention implemented in a practice setting as a selective/indicated program for multi-ethnic, multi-problem at risk youth in urban alternative high schools in the Miami Dade County Public Schools (M-DCPS). The 259 participants for this study were drawn from the CLP's archival data file. The study used a structural equation modeling approach to construct and evaluate the hypothesized model. Findings indicated that the hypothesized model fit the data (χ2 (7) = 5.651, p = .83; RMSEA = .00; CFI = 1.00; WRMR = .319). My study built on previous research using the OMC evaluation model (Eichas, 2010), and the findings are consistent with the hypothesis that in addition to having effects on targeted positive outcomes, PYD interventions are likely to have progressive cascading effects on untargeted problem outcomes that operate through effects on positive outcomes.

No Free Lunch: Displaced Marsh Consumers Regulate a Prey Subsidy to an Estuarine Consumer

Pulse subsidies account for a substantial proportion of resource availability in many systems, having persistent and cascading effects on consumer population dynamics, and energy flow within and across ecosystem boundaries. Although the importance of pulsed resource subsidies is well-established, the mechanisms that regulate resource fluxes across ecosystem boundaries are not well understood. The aim of our study was to determine the extent that marsh consumers regulated a marsh prey subsidy to estuarine consumers in the oligohaline reaches of an Everglades estuary. We characterized a marsh pulsed subsidy of cyprinodontoid, invertebrate and sunfish prey that move into the upper estuary from adjacent drying marshes. In response to the prey pulse, we examined the numerical, fitness and dietary responses of three focal consumers in the upper estuary; two marsh species (largemouth bass and bowfin) that accompanied the subsidy as a result of marsh drying, and one estuarine consumer (snook). At the onset of marsh drying and the prey subsidy, estuarine consumers switched diets to consume the larger marsh prey (sunfishes), while bass and bowfin maintained similar diets (cyprinodontoids and invertebrates respectively) than pre and post subsidy. From the consumption of this subsidy, bass (marsh species) and snook (estuarine species) exhibited fitness gains while bowfin did not. Although both marsh and estuarine consumers benefitted from the subsidy, we found evidence that freshwater consumers shunted some of the subsidy away from snook. Of the prey sampled in consumer stomachs, 41% of marsh prey biomass was eaten by marsh consumers, while 59% was consumed by the estuarine consumer. We conclude that the amount of the marsh prey available to estuarine consumers may be greater in the absence of marsh consumers, thus the magnitude of the prey subsidy could depend on the dynamics of the marsh consumers from donor communities.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

Cognitive Competence and Life Course Change in Multi-Problem Adolescents

The dissertation reports on two studies. The purpose of Study I was to develop and evaluate a measure of cognitive competence (the Critical Problem Solving Skills Scale – Qualitative Extension) using Relational Data Analysis (RDA) with a multi-ethnic, adolescent sample. My study builds on previous work that has been conducted to provide evidence for the reliability and validity of the RDA framework in evaluating youth development programs (Kurtines et al., 2008). Inter-coder percent agreement among the TOC and TCC coders for each of the category levels was moderate to high, with a range of .76 to .94. The Fleiss’ kappa across all category levels was from substantial agreement to almost perfect agreement, with a range of .72 to .91. The correlation between the TOC and the TCC demonstrated medium to high correlation, with a range of r(40)=.68, p Study II reports an investigation of a positive youth development program using an Outcome Mediation Cascade (OMC) evaluation model, an integrated model for evaluating the empirical intersection between intervention and developmental processes. The Changing Lives Program (CLP) is a community supported positive youth development intervention implemented in a practice setting as a selective/indicated program for multi-ethnic, multi-problem at risk youth in urban alternative high schools in the Miami Dade County Public Schools (M-DCPS). The 259 participants for this study were drawn from the CLP’s archival data file. The study used a structural equation modeling approach to construct and evaluate the hypothesized model. Findings indicated that the hypothesized model fit the data (χ2 (7) = 5.651, p = .83; RMSEA = .00; CFI = 1.00; WRMR = .319). My study built on previous research using the OMC evaluation model (Eichas, 2010), and the findings are consistent with the hypothesis that in addition to having effects on targeted positive outcomes, PYD interventions are likely to have progressive cascading effects on untargeted problem outcomes that operate through effects on positive outcomes.

Cascading climate effects and related ecological consequences during past centuries

The interface between climate and ecosystem structure and function is incompletely understood, partly because few ecological records start before the recent warming phase. Here, we analyse an exceptional 100-yr long record of the great tit (Parus major) population in Switzerland in relation to climate and habitat phenology. Using structural equation analysis, we demonstrate an uninterrupted cascade of significant influences of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (North-Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, and North-sea – Caspian Pattern, NCP) on habitat and breeding phenology, and further on fitness-relevant life history traits within great tit populations. We then apply the relationships of this analysis to reconstruct the circulation-driven component of fluctuations in great tit breeding phenology and productivity on the basis of new seasonal NAO and NCP indices back to 1500 AD. According to the structural equation model, the multi-decadal oscillation of the atmospheric circulation likely led to substantial variation in habitat phenology, productivity and consequently, tit population fluctuations with minima during the "Maunder Minimum" (∼ 1650–1720) and the Little Ice Age Type Event I (1810–1850). The warming since 1975 was not only related with a quick shift towards earlier breeding, but also with the highest productivity since 1500, and thus, the impact of the NAO and NCP has contributed to an unprecedented increase of the population. A verification of the structural equation model against two independent data series (1970–2000 and 1750–1900) corroborates that the retrospective model reliably depicts the major long-term NAO/NCP impact on ecosystem parameters. The results suggest a complex cascade of climate effects beginning at a global scale and ending at the level of individual life histories. This sheds light on how large-scale climate conditions substantially affect major life history parameters within a population, and thus influence key ecosystem parameters at the scale of centuries.

Effects of genetic diversity of grass on insect species diversity at higher trophic levels are not due to cascading diversity effects

Genetic diversity in plant populations has been shown to affect the species diversity of insects. In grasses, infection with fungal endophytes can also have strong effects on insects, potentially modifying the effects of plant genetic diversity. We manipulated the genetic diversity and endophyte infection of a grass in a field experiment. We show that diversity of primary parasitoids (3rd trophic level) and, especially, secondary parasitoids (4th trophic level) increases with grass genetic diversity while there was no effect of endophyte infection. The increase in insect diversity appeared to be due to a complementarity effect rather than a sampling effect. The higher parasitoid diversity could not be explained by a cascading diversity effect because herbivore diversity was not affected and the same herbivore species were present in all treatments. The effects on the higher trophic levels must therefore be due to a direct response to plant traits or mediated by effects on traits at intermediate trophic levels.

Cascading ecological effects of low-level phosphorus enrichment in the Florida Everglades

Few studies have examined long-term ecological effects of sustained low-level nutrient enhancement on wetland biota. To determine sustained effects of phosphorus (P) addition on Everglades marshes we added P at low levels (5, 15, and 30 µg L-1 above ambient) for 5 yr to triplicate 100-m flow-through channels in pristine marsh. A cascade of ecological responses occurred in similar sequence among treatments. Although the rate of change increased with dosing level, treatments converged to similar enriched endpoints, characterized most notably by a doubling of plant biomass and elimination of native, calcareous periphyton mats. The full sequence of biological changes occurred without an increase in water total P concentration, which remained near ambient levels until Year 5. This study indicates that Everglades marshes have a near-zero assimilative capacity for P without a state change, that ecosystem responses to enrichment accumulate over time, and that downstream P transport mainly occurs through biota rather than the water column.

Intraspecific variation in a predator affects community structure and cascading trophic interactions.

Intraspecific phenotypic variation in ecologically important traits is widespread and important for evolutionary processes, but its effects on community and ecosystem processes are poorly understood. We use life history differences among populations of alewives, Alosa pseudoharengus, to test the effects of intraspecific phenotypic variation in a predator on pelagic zooplankton community structure and the strength of cascading trophic interactions. We focus on the effects of differences in (1) the duration of residence in fresh water (either seasonal or year-round) and (2) differences in foraging morphology, both of which may strongly influence interactions between alewives and their prey. We measured zooplankton community structure, algal biomass, and spring total phosphorus in lakes that contained landlocked, anadromous, or no alewives. Both the duration of residence and the intraspecific variation in foraging morphology strongly influenced zooplankton community structure. Lakes with landlocked alewives had small-bodied zooplankton year-round, and lakes with no alewives had large-bodied zooplankton year-round. In contrast, zooplankton communities in lakes with anadromous alewives cycled between large-bodied zooplankton in the winter and spring and small-bodied zooplankton in the summer. In summer, differences in feeding morphology of alewives caused zooplankton biomass to be lower and body size to be smaller in lakes with anadromous alewives than in lakes with landlocked alewives. Furthermore, intraspecific variation altered the strength of the trophic cascade caused by alewives. Our results demonstrate that intraspecific phenotypic variation of predators can regulate community structure and ecosystem processes by modifying the form and strength of complex trophic interactions.