Evaluación económica de los impactos del cambio climático sobre la salud

El Informe Stern, realizado a instancias del Gobierno Británico, se ha convertido en el documento paradigmático de la economía del cambio climático. No solo proporciona una estimación de los costes del cambio climático, sino que resulta ser una aportación fundamental a la evaluación de los datos existentes y al fomento de un mayor conocimiento de los aspectos económicos del cambio climático. El informe tiene una perspectiva internacional, por cuanto el cambio climático es un problema mundial, tanto en sus causas como en sus consecuencias. La adopción de medidas colectivas a nivel internacional es crucial para conseguir una respuesta eficaz, eficiente y equitativa. Así, se insta a la comunidad internacional a actuar con fuerza y de forma inmediata en la toma de decisiones que permitan reducir las emisiones (de CO2) para que los efectos del cambio climático no comiencen a ser irremediables. De hecho, la principal conclusión del informe es que los beneficios de la adopción de medidas prontas y firmes sobre el cambio climático superarán con creces los costes

Estratègies d'adaptació al canvi climàtic a la Costa Brava: una reflexió teòrica sobre la relació amb el rejoveniment de les destinacions madures

Aquesta Master Tesi té per objecte investigar la relació entre el canvi climàtic i el desenvolupament de destinacions turístiques madures. En concret, es pretén avançar en el coneixement que es té sobre: 1) com afectarà el canvi climàtic a les destinacions madures; 2) quines mesures s’estan prenent per a fer-hi front des de l’àmbit públic; i 3) en quina mesura la lluita contra el canvi climàtic pot alinear-se al costat dels processos de rejoveniment de les destinacions, de forma que ambdós es retroalimentin i generin sinèrgies positives perquè les destinacions turístiques les aprofitin per esdevenir més sostenibles i, a la vegada, es projectin cap al futur resultant més atractives. Per contrastar els avenços teòrics a nivell pràctic, s’ha decidit delimitar l’àrea geogràfica de la Costa Brava (Catalunya, Espanya) per tal de formular un estudi de cas, que consisteix en l’anàlisi de les Agendes 21 locals dels municipis de litoral. Aquesta anàlisi ha permès extreure conclusions que, si bé encara s’han de considerar a nivell prospectiu i les quals caldrà que siguin revalidades per la comunitat científica, igualment s’han de considerar valuoses per la seva aportació en les teories de gestió de destinacions turístiques i d’estratègies per fer front del canvi climàtic

The economic relevance of climate variables in agriculture: the case of Spain

We estimate how climate variables affect price and acreage of productive farmland using the Ricardian approach. Furthermore, we use our estimations to evaluate the joint effects of possible cli- mate changes within the time horizon of 2010 and 2050. Our results show that the price of rainfed land in Spain tends to increase but rainfed acreage decreases. On the other hand, the effect on irrigated farmland price and acreage presents some mixed results, however, in the long run the dominant pattern is clearly increasing for both prices and acreage.

Preface: Forecast and projection in climate scenario of Mediterranean intense events: uncertainties and propagation on environment (the MEDUP project)

The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, partly due to its quite unique character that results both from physiographic conditions and societal development. The region features indeed a near-closed sea surrounded by very urbanised littorals and mountains from which numerous rivers originate. This results in a lot of interactions and feedbacks between oceanic-atmospheric-hydrological processes that play a predominant role on climate and extreme events that frequently cause heavy dam- ages and human losses in the Mediterranean ...

Decreasing fires in a Mediterranean region (1970-2010, NE Spain)

We analyse the recent evolution of fires in Catalonia (north-eastern Iberian Peninsula), a typical Mediterranean region. We examine a homogeneous series of forest fires in the period 1970-2010. During this period, more than 9000 fire events greater than 0.5 ha were recorded, and the total burned area was more than 400 kha. Our analysis shows that both the burned area and number of fire series display a decreasing trend. Superposed onto this general decrease, strong oscillations on shorter time scales are evident. After the large fires of 1986 and 1994, the increased effort in fire prevention and suppression could explain part of the decreasing trend. Although it is often stated that fires have increased in Mediterranean regions, the higher efficiency in fire detection could have led to spurious trends and misleading conclusions.

Preface: Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning

This special issue of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) contains eight papers presented as oral or poster contributions in the Natural Hazards NH-1.2 session on"Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning", held at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, on 13-18 April 2008. The aim of the session was to provide an international forum for presenting new results and for discussing innovative ideas and concepts on extreme hydro-meteorological events, including: (i) the assessment of the risk posed by the extreme events, (ii) the expected changes in the frequency and intensity of the events driven by a changing climate and by multiple human- induced causes, (iii) new modelling approaches and original forecasting methods to predict extreme events and their consequences, and (iv) strategies for hazard mitigation and risk reduction, and for a improved adaptation to extreme hydro-meteorological events ...

Assessing trends in insured losses from floods in Spain 1971-2008

Economic impacts from floods have been increasing over recent decades, a fact often attributed to a changing climate. On the other hand, there is now a significant body of scientific scholarship all pointing towards increasing concentrations and values of assets as the principle cause of the increasing cost of natural disasters. This holds true for a variety of perils and across different jurisdictions. With this in mind, this paper examines the time history of insured losses from floods in Spain between 1971 and 2008. It as- sesses whether any discernible residual signal remains after adjusting the data for the increase in the number and value of insured assets over this period of time. Data on insured losses from floods were sourced from Consorcio de Com- pensacíon de Seguros (CCS). Although a public institution, CCS compensates homeowners for the damage produced by floods, and thus plays a role similar to that of a private insurance company. Insured losses were adjusted using two proxy measures: first, changes in the total amount of annual surcharges (premiums) paid by customers to CCS, and secondly, changes in the total value of dwellings per year. The adjusted data reveals no significant trend over the period 1971-2008 and serves again to confirm that at this juncture, societal in- fluences remain the prime factors driving insured and economic losses from natural disasters.

Preface"11th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms"

The EGU Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms was established in 1999 within the framework of the Interdisciplinary Working Group on Natural Hazards (IWG-NH) of the former European Geophysical Society (EGS)- since 2002,European Geosciences Union (EGU). Since its advent, the Plinius Conference series has provided a crucial interdisciplinary forum for improving our understanding of hazardous storms over the Mediterranean basin that are capable of producing strong winds, heavy rains, explosive landslides, devastating flash floods and other related extremes ...

Spatiotemporal variability in radial growth of trees in the Central Pyrenees: climatic and site influences.

To understand how tree growth has responded to recent climate warming, an understanding of the tree-climate-site complex is necessary. To achieve this, radial growth variability among 204 trees established before 1850 was studied in relation to both climatic and site factors. Seventeen forest stands were sampled in the Spanish Central Pyrenees. Three species were studied: Pinus uncinata, Abies alba, and Pinus sylvestris. For each tree, a ring-width residual chronology was built. All trees cross-dated well, indicating a common influence of the regional climate. For the 1952-1993 period, the radial growth of all species, especially P. uncinata, was positively correlated with warm Novembers during the year before ring formation and warm Mays of the year the annual ring formed. Differences in species-stand elevation modulated the growth-climate associations. Radial growth in P. uncinata at high elevation sites was reduced when May temperatures were colder and May precipitation more abundant. In the 20th century, two contrasting periods in radial growth were observed: one (1900-1949) with low frequency of narrow and wide rings, low mean annual sensitivity, and low common growth variation; and another (1950-1994) with the reverse characteristics. The increased variability in radial growth since the 1950s was observed for all species and sites, which suggests a climatic cause. The low shared variance among tree chronologies during the first half of the 20th century may result from a"relaxation" of the elevation gradient, allowing local site conditions to dominate macroclimatic influence. These temporal trends may be related to the recently reported increase of climatic variability and warmer conditions. This study emphasizes the need to carefully assess the relationships between radial growth and site conditions along ecological gradients to improve dendroclimatic reconstructions.

Fluctuaciones de la extension del casquete glacial de la isla de Livingston (Shetland del sur) desde 1956 hasta 1996.

A partir de documentos cartográficos e imágenes de satélite se constata un 4,31% de reducción de extensión del casquete glacial de la isla Livingston desde 1956 hasta 1996. Se detecta la influencia de factores locales, fundamentalmente de tipo topogr á fico, que condicionan los avances y retrocesos del frente glacial en los diferentes sectores de la costa y se establece un modelo simple en el que se relaciona la reducción del conjunto del casquete con el calentamiento atmosférico experimentado en los últimos decenios en la zona de la Península Antártica.

Evidence for the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the total ozone column at northern low latitudes and midlatitudes during winter and summer seasons.

The strong influence of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the total ozone column (TOC) in the Northern Hemisphere has been reported in a number of previous studies. In this study we show that this influence is not restricted to the winter season but is also significant in summer. Especially interesting effects of the summer NAO (SNAO) on the TOC are observed over the eastern Mediterranean region, where a strongly positive SNAO index is related to the creation of a geopotential height-negative anomaly over Greece with maximum amplitude at 200 hPa. Another anomaly was observed west of the Iberian Peninsula with similar effects on the TOC. Analyzing 26 years of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) data from the equator to midlatitudes (60°) in the Northern Hemisphere, we demonstrate that the SNAO accounts for up to 30% of the TOC variability with a strong latitudinal and longitudinal dependence. Additionally, we obtain significant correlations between the NAO index and the thermal tropopause pressure and also with the geopotential heights at 200 and 500 hPa. Finally, some indirect connections between NAO and the TOC through teleconnections are also discussed.

Cambio climático y diversidad de la flora vascular en las montañas tabulares de Guayana.

Una de las posibles consecuencias del calentamiento global es la extinción de especies de alta montaña por migración ascendente de las condiciones ambientales y pérdida de hábitat, fenómeno que, por el momento, ha sido considerado únicamente en montañas templadas y boreales. Este trabajo analiza la misma situación en montañas tropicales y estima el grado de amenaza de la flora vascular de las cimas de las montañas neotropicales de Guayana, al norte de Sudamérica. Del estudio basado en una muestra de 83 especies, entre aproximadamente el 8 y el 33% de las mismas se encuentran en peligro de extinguirse debido a la desaparición de su hábitat. La mayoría de estas especies son endémicas de Guayana, por lo que su desaparición afectaría a la biodiversidad global.

Estimating 750 years of temperature variations and uncertainties in the Pyrenees by tree-ring reconstructions and climate simulations.

Past temperature variations are usually inferred from proxy data or estimated using general circulation models. Comparisons between climate estimations derived from proxy records and from model simulations help to better understand mechanisms driving climate variations, and also offer the possibility to identify deficiencies in both approaches. This paper presents regional temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring maximum density series in the Pyrenees, and compares them with the output of global simulations for this region and with regional climate model simulations conducted for the target region. An ensemble of 24 reconstructions of May-to-September regional mean temperature was derived from 22 maximum density tree-ring site chronologies distributed over the larger Pyrenees area. Four different tree-ring series standardization procedures were applied, combining two detrending methods: 300-yr spline and the regional curve standardization (RCS). Additionally, different methodological variants for the regional chronology were generated by using three different aggregation methods. Calibration verification trials were performed in split periods and using two methods: regression and a simple variance matching. The resulting set of temperature reconstructions was compared with climate simulations performed with global (ECHO-G) and regional (MM5) climate models. The 24 variants of May-to-September temperature reconstructions reveal a generally coherent pattern of inter-annual to multi-centennial temperature variations in the Pyrenees region for the last 750 yr. However, some reconstructions display a marked positive trend for the entire length of the reconstruction, pointing out that the application of the RCS method to a suboptimal set of samples may lead to unreliable results. Climate model simulations agree with the tree-ring based reconstructions at multi-decadal time scales, suggesting solar variability and volcanism as the main factors controlling preindustrial mean temperature variations in the Pyrenees. Nevertheless, the comparison also highlights differences with the reconstructions, mainly in the amplitude of past temperature variations and in the 20th century trends. Neither proxy-based reconstructions nor model simulations are able to perfectly track the temperature variations of the instrumental record, suggesting that both approximations still need further improvements.

A look to the HyMeX program (Una mirada al programa HyMeX)

The international HyMeX (Hydrological Mediterranean Experiment) program aims to improve our understanding of the water cycle in the Mediterranean, using a multidisciplinary and multiscale approach and with emphasis on extreme events. This program will improve our understanding and our predictive ability of hydrometeorological hazards including their evolution within the next century. One of the most important results of the program will be its observational campaigns, which will greatly improve the data available, leading to significant scientific results. The interest of the program for the Spanish research groups is described, as the active participation of some of them in the design and execution of the observational activities. At the same time, due to its location, Spain is key to the program, being a good observation platform. HyMeX will enrich the work of the Spanish research groups, it will improve the predictive ability of the weather services, will help us to have a better understanding of the impacts of hydrometeorological extremes on our society and will lead to better strategies for adapting to climate change.

El canvi climàtic posa en perill el cafè i el cacau

PER A MOLTES PERSONES, beure cafè i menjar xocolata és un autèntic plaer. Tant les plantes de cafè com les de cacau es cultiven en unes zones molt concretes de la Terra, als cinturons tropicals, i en teoria representen una font de riquesa per als països productors. Tanmateix, la demanda creixent, combinada amb els efectes del canvi climàtic i les desigualtats econòmiques entre productors i consumidors, posen en perill aquests cultius. Així ho indiquen dos estudis publicats a la revista Plos One i un altre a Current Biology, que suggereixen que per mantenir la productivitat actual cal incrementar la diversitat genètica d"aquestes plantes i afavorir un model de comerç just.