Immuno-reactive proteins from Mycobacterium immunogenum useful for serodiagnosis of metalworking fluid hypersensitivity pneumonitis.

Metalworking fluid-associated hypersensitivity pneumonitis (MWF-HP) is a pulmonary disease caused by inhaling microorganisms present in the metalworking fluids used in the industrial sector. Mycobacterium immunogenum is the main etiological agent. Among the clinical, radiological and biological tools used for diagnosis, serological tests are important. The aim of this study was to identify immunogenic proteins in M. immunogenum and to use recombinant antigens for serological diagnosis of MWF-HP. Immunogenic proteins were detected by two-dimensional Western blot and candidate proteins were identified by mass spectrometry. Recombinant antigens were expressed in Escherichia coli and tested by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with the sera of 14 subjects with MWF-HP and 12 asymptomatic controls exposed to M. immunogenum. From the 350 spots visualized by two-dimensional gel electrophoresis with M. immunogenum extract, 6 immunogenic proteins were selected to be expressed as recombinant antigens. Acyl-CoA dehydrogenase antigen allowed for the best discrimination of MWF-HP cases against controls with an area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve of 0.930 (95% CI=0.820-1), a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 83% for the optimum threshold. Other recombinant antigens correspond to acyl-CoA dehydrogenase FadE, cytosol aminopeptidase, dihydrolipoyl dehydrogenase, serine hydroxymethyltransferase and superoxide dismutase. This is the first time that recombinant antigens have been used for the serodiagnosis of hypersensitivity pneumonitis. The availability of recombinant antigens makes it possible to develop standardized serological tests which in turn could simplify diagnosis, thus making it less invasive.

Prospective validation of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index. A clinical prognostic model for pulmonary embolism

Practice guidelines recommend outpatient care for selected patients with non-massive pulmonary embolism (PE), but fail to specify how these low-risk patients should be identified. Using data from U.S. patients, we previously derived the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), a prediction rule that risk stratifies patients with PE. We sought to validate the PESI in a European patient cohort. We prospectively validated the PESI in patients with PE diagnosed at six emergency departments in three European countries. We used baseline data for the rule's 11 prognostic variables to stratify patients into five risk classes (I-V) of increasing probability of mortality. The outcome was overall mortality at 90 days after presentation. To assess the accuracy of the PESI to predict mortality, we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for low- (risk classes I/II) versus higher-risk patients (risk classes III-V), and the discriminatory power using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Among 357 patients with PE, overall mortality was 5.9%, ranging from 0% in class I to 17.9% in class V. The 186 (52%) low-risk patients had an overall mortality of 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-3.8%) compared to 11.1% (95% CI: 6.8-16.8%) in the 171 (48%) higher-risk patients. The PESI had a high sensitivity (91%, 95% CI: 71-97%) and a negative predictive value (99%, 95% CI: 96-100%) for predicting mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.70-0.86). The PESI reliably identifies patients with PE who are at low risk of death and who are potential candidates for outpatient care. The PESI may help physicians make more rational decisions about hospitalization for patients with PE.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients with chest pain : a clinical prediction score

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.

Current genetic data do not improve the prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus: the CoLaus study.

CONTEXT: Several genetic risk scores to identify asymptomatic subjects at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have been proposed, but it is unclear whether they add extra information to risk scores based on clinical and biological data. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to assess the extra clinical value of genetic risk scores in predicting the occurrence of T2DM. DESIGN: This was a prospective study, with a mean follow-up time of 5 yr. SETTING AND SUBJECTS: The study included 2824 nondiabetic participants (1548 women, 52 ± 10 yr). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Six genetic risk scores for T2DM were tested. Four were derived from the literature and two were created combining all (n = 24) or shared (n = 9) single-nucleotide polymorphisms of the previous scores. A previously validated clinic + biological risk score for T2DM was used as reference. RESULTS: Two hundred seven participants (7.3%) developed T2DM during follow-up. On bivariate analysis, no differences were found for all but one genetic score between nondiabetic and diabetic participants. After adjusting for the validated clinic + biological risk score, none of the genetic scores improved discrimination, as assessed by changes in the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (range -0.4 to -0.1%), sensitivity (-2.9 to -1.0%), specificity (0.0-0.1%), and positive (-6.6 to +0.7%) and negative (-0.2 to 0.0%) predictive values. Similarly, no improvement in T2DM risk prediction was found: net reclassification index ranging from -5.3 to -1.6% and nonsignificant (P X05; 0.49) integrated discrimination improvement. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, adding genetic information to a previously validated clinic + biological score does not seem to improve the prediction of T2DM.

Hypermethylated 14-3-3-sigma and ESR1 gene promoters in serum as candidate biomarkers for the diagnosis and treatment efficacy of breast cancer metastasis

Background: Numerous hypermethylated genes have been reported in breast cancer, and the silencing of these genes plays an important role in carcinogenesis, tumor progression and diagnosis. These hypermethylated promoters are very rarely found in normal breast. It has been suggested that aberrant hypermethylation may be useful as a biomarker, with implications for breast cancer etiology, diagnosis, and management. The relationship between primary neoplasm and metastasis remains largely unknown. There has been no comprehensive comparative study on the clinical usefulness of tumor-associated methylated DNA biomarkers in primary breast carcinoma and metastatic breast carcinoma. The objective of the present study was to investigate the association between clinical extension of breast cancer and methylation status of Estrogen Receptor1 (ESR1) and Stratifin (14-3-3-σ) gene promoters in disease-free and metastatic breast cancer patients. Methods: We studied two cohorts of patients: 77 patients treated for breast cancer with no signs of disease, and 34 patients with metastatic breast cancer. DNA was obtained from serum samples, and promoter methylation status was determined by using DNA bisulfite modification and quantitative methylation-specific PCR. Results: Serum levels of methylated gene promoter 14-3-3-σ significantly differed between Control and Metastatic Breast Cancer groups (P < 0.001), and between Disease-Free and Metastatic Breast Cancer groups (P < 0.001). The ratio of the 14-3-3-σ level before the first chemotherapy cycle to the level just before administration of the second chemotherapy cycle was defined as the Biomarker Response Ratio [BRR]. We calculated BRR values for the "continuous decline" and "rise-and-fall" groups. Subsequent ROC analysis showed a sensitivity of 75% (95% CI: 47.6 - 86.7) and a specificity of 66.7% (95% CI: 41.0 - 86.7) to discriminate between the groups for a cut-off level of BRR = 2.39. The area under the ROC curve (Z = 0.804 ± 0.074) indicates that this test is a good approach to post-treatment prognosis. Conclusions: The relationship of 14-3-3-σ with breast cancer metastasis and progression found in this study suggests a possible application of 14-3-3-σ as a biomarker to screen for metastasis and to follow up patients treated for metastatic breast cancer, monitoring their disease status and treatment response.

Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

Peritoneal carcinomatosis due to ovarian cancer: comparison between MDCT, MRI and positron emission tomography-computed tomography with F18-fluorodeoxyglucose

Purpose: To compare MDCT, MRI and 18F-FDG PET/CT for the detection of peritoneal carcinomatosis due to ovarian cancerMethods and Materials: Fifteen women (mean age 65±) with clinical suspicion of ovarian cancer and peritoneal carcinomatosis underwent MDCT, MRI and 18F-FDG PET/CT, simultaneously and shortly performed before surgery (delay 8.1± days). According to the peritoneal cancer index nine abdominopelvic regions were defined. We applied four scores of lesion size on MDCT and MR images, while the maximal standard uptake value (SUVmax) was measured on 18F-FDG PET/CT. Three sites of lymphadenopathy and posterobasal pleural carcinomatosis were also analyzed. First, one radiologist blindly and separately read MDCT and MR images, while one nuclear physician blindly read PET/CT images grading each lesion according to four diagnostic certitudes. Secondly, all the images were reviewed jointly and compared with histopathology. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis was performed.Results: Peritoneal implants were proven in ten women (75%). Altogether, 228 abdominopelvic sites were compared. Sensitivity and specificity for MDCT was 90.2% and 90.6%, for MRI 93.5% and 86.3%, and for 18F-FDG PET/CT 92.7% and 95.7%, respectively. ROC area under the curve were 0.93 for MDCT and MRI, and 0.96 for 18F-FDG PET/CT respectively. No significant differences (p=0.11) were found between the three modalities.Conclusion: Although MRI revealed to be the most sensitive and 18F-FDG PET/CT the most specific modality, no significant differences were shown between the three techniques.

Oseltamivir in seasonal, avian H5N1 and pandemic 2009 A/H1N1 influenza: pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics.

Oseltamivir is the ester-type prodrug of the neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir carboxylate. It has been shown to be an effective treatment for both seasonal influenza and the recent pandemic 2009 A/H1N1 influenza, reducing both the duration and severity of the illness. It is also effective when used preventively. This review aims to describe the current knowledge of the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics of this agent, and to address the issue of possible therapeutic drug monitoring. According to the currently available literature, the pharmacokinetics of oseltamivir carboxylate after oral administration of oseltamivir are characterized by mean ± SD bioavailability of 79 ± 12%, apparent clearance of 25.3 ± 7.0 L/h, an elimination half-life of 7.4 ± 2.5 hours and an apparent terminal volume of distribution of 267 ± 122 L. A maximum plasma concentration of 342 ± 83 μg/L, a time to reach the maximum plasma concentration of 4.2 ± 1.1 hours, a trough plasma concentration of 168 ± 32 μg/L and an area under the plasma concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 hours of 6110 ± 1330 μg · h/L for a 75 mg twice-daily regimen were derived from literature data. The apparent clearance is highly correlated with renal function, hence the dosage needs to be adjusted in proportion to the glomerular filtration rate. Interpatient variability is moderate (28% in apparent clearance and 46% in the apparent central volume of distribution); there is no indication of significant erratic or limited absorption in given patient subgroups. The in vitro pharmacodynamics of oseltamivir carboxylate reveal wide variation in the concentration producing 50% inhibition of influenza A and B strains (range 0.17-44 μg/L). A formal correlation between systemic exposure to oseltamivir carboxylate and clinical antiviral activity or tolerance in influenza patients has not yet been demonstrated; thus no formal therapeutic or toxic range can be proposed. The pharmacokinetic parameters of oseltamivir carboxylate after oseltamivir administration (bioavailability, apparent clearance and the volume of distribution) are fairly predictable in healthy subjects, with little interpatient variability outside the effect of renal function in all patients and bodyweight in children. Thus oseltamivir carboxylate exposure can probably be controlled with sufficient accuracy by thorough dosage adjustment according to patient characteristics. However, there is a lack of clinical study data on naturally infected patients. In addition, the therapeutic margin of oseltamivir carboxylate is poorly defined. The usefulness of systematic therapeutic drug monitoring in patients therefore appears to be questionable; however, studies are still needed to extend the knowledge to particular subgroups of patients or dosage regimens.

Ganciclovir exposure under a 450mg daily dosage of valganciclovir for cytomegalovirus prevention in kidney transplantation: a prospective study.

Manuel O, Pascual M, Perrottet N, Lamoth F, Venetz J-P, Decosterd LA, Buclin T, Meylan PR. Ganciclovir exposure under a 450 mg daily dosage of valganciclovir for cytomegalovirus prevention in kidney transplantation: a prospective study. 
Clin Transplant 2010: 24: 794-800. Abstract:  This prospective study aimed at determining the ganciclovir exposure observed under a daily dosage of 450 mg valganciclovir routinely applied to kidney transplant recipients with a GFR above 25 mL/min at risk for cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease. Ganciclovir levels at trough (C(trough) ) and at peak (C(3 h) ) were measured monthly. Ganciclovir exposure (area under the curve [AUC(0-24) ]) was estimated using Bayesian non-linear mixed-effect modeling (NONMEM). Thirty-six patients received 450 mg of valganciclovir daily for three months. Median ganciclovir C(3 h) was 3.9 mg/L (range: 1.3-7.1), and C(trough) was 0.4 mg/L (range 0.1-2.7). Median AUC(0-24) of ganciclovir was 59.3 mg h/L (39.0-85.3) in patients with GFR(MDRD) 26-39 mL/min, 35.8 mg h/L (24.9-55.8) in patients with GFR(MDRD) 40-59 mL/min, and 29.6 mg h/L (22.0-43.2) in patients with GFR(MDRD)  X05; 60 mL/min. No major differences in adverse events according to ganciclovir exposure were observed. CMV viremia was not detected during prophylaxis. After discontinuing prophylaxis, CMV viremia was seen in 8/36 patients (22%), and 4/36 patients (11%) developed CMV disease. Ganciclovir exposure after administration of valganciclovir 450 mg daily in recipients with GFR X05;60 mL/min was comparable to those previously reported with oral ganciclovir. A routine daily dose of 450 mg valganciclovir appears to be acceptable for CMV prophylaxis in most kidney transplant recipients.

Cell disposition of raltegravir and newer antiretrovirals in HIV-infected patients: high inter-individual variability in raltegravir cellular penetration.

Objectives The site of pharmacological activity of raltegravir is intracellular. Our aim was to determine the extent of raltegravir cellular penetration and whether raltegravir total plasma concentration (C(tot)) predicts cellular concentration (C(cell)). Methods Open-label, prospective, pharmacokinetic study on HIV-infected patients on a stable raltegravir-containing regimen. Plasma and peripheral blood mononuclear cells were simultaneously collected during a 12 h dosing interval after drug intake. C(tot) and C(cell) of raltegravir, darunavir, etravirine, maraviroc and ritonavir were measured by liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry after protein precipitation. Longitudinal mixed effects analysis was applied to the C(cell)/C(tot) ratio. Results Ten HIV-infected patients were included. The geometric mean (GM) raltegravir total plasma maximum concentration (C(max)), minimum concentration (C(min)) and area under the time-concentration curve from 0-12 h (AUC(0-12)) were 1068 ng/mL, 51.1 ng/mL and 4171 ng·h/mL, respectively. GM raltegravir cellular C(max), C(min) and AUC(0-12) were 27.5 ng/mL, 2.9 ng/mL and 165 ng·h/mL, respectively. Raltegravir C(cell) corresponded to 5.3% of C(tot) measured simultaneously. Both concentrations fluctuate in parallel, with C(cell)/C(tot) ratios remaining fairly constant for each patient without a significant time-related trend over the dosing interval. The AUC(cell)/AUC(tot) GM ratios for raltegravir, darunavir and etravirine were 0.039, 0.14 and 1.55, respectively. Conclusions Raltegravir C(cell) correlated with C(tot) (rR02;=R02;0.86). Raltegravir penetration into cells is low overall (∼5% of plasma levels), with distinct raltegravir cellular penetration varying by as much as 15-fold between patients. The importance of this finding in the context of development of resistance to integrase inhibitors needs to be further investigated.

Pancreatic stone protein as a novel marker for neonatal sepsis.

PURPOSE: Early-onset sepsis (EOS) is one of the main causes for the admission of newborns to the neonatal intensive care unit. However, traditional infection markers are poor diagnostic markers of EOS. Pancreatic stone protein (PSP) is a promising sepsis marker in adults. The aim of this study was to investigate whether determining PSP improves the diagnosis of EOS in comparison with other infection markers. METHODS: This was a prospective multicentre study involving 137 infants with a gestational age of >34 weeks who were admitted with suspected EOS. PSP, procalcitonin (PCT), soluble human triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 (sTREM-1), macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured at admission. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed. RESULTS: The level of PSP in infected infants was significantly higher than that in uninfected ones (median 11.3 vs. 7.5 ng/ml, respectively; p = 0.001). The ROC area under the curve was 0.69 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.59-0.80; p < 0.001] for PSP, 0.77 (95 % CI 0.66-0.87; p < 0.001) for PCT, 0.66 (95 % CI 0.55-0.77; p = 0.006) for CRP, 0.62 (0.51-0.73; p = 0.055) for sTREM-1 and 0.54 (0.41-0.67; p = 0.54) for MIF. PSP independently of PCT predicted EOS (p < 0.001), and the use of both markers concomitantly significantly increased the ability to diagnose EOS. A bioscore combining PSP (>9 ng/ml) and PCT (>2 ng/ml) was the best predictor of EOS (0.83; 95 % CI 0.74-0.93; p < 0.001) and resulted in a negative predictive value of 100 % and a positive predictive value of 71 %. CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective study, the diagnostic performance of PSP and PCT was superior to that of traditional markers and a combination bioscore improved the diagnosis of sepsis. Our findings suggest that PSP is a valuable biomarker in combination with PCT in EOS.

Blood glucose and prognosis in children with presumed severe malaria: is there a threshold for 'hypoglycaemia'?

OBJECTIVES: Hypoglycaemia (glucose <2.2 mmol/l) is a defining feature of severe malaria, but the significance of other levels of blood glucose has not previously been studied in children with severe malaria. METHODS: A prospective study of 437 consecutive children with presumed severe malaria was conducted in Mali. We defined hypoglycaemia as <2.2 mmol/l, low glycaemia as 2.2-4.4 mmol/l and hyperglycaemia as >8.3 mmol/l. Associations between glycaemia and case fatality were analysed for 418 children using logistic regression models and a receiver operator curve (ROC). RESULTS: There was a significant difference between blood glucose levels in children who died (median 4.6 mmol/l) and survivors (median 7.6 mmol/l, P < 0.001). Case fatality declined from 61.5% of the hypoglycaemic children to 46.2% of those with low glycaemia, 13.4% of those with normal glycaemia and 7.6% of those with hyperglycaemia (P < 0.001). Logistic regression showed an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 0.75 (0.64-0.88) for case fatality per 1 mmol/l increase in baseline blood glucose. Compared to a normal blood glucose, hypoglycaemia and low glycaemia both significantly increased the odds of death (AOR 11.87, 2.10-67.00; and 5.21, 1.86-14.63, respectively), whereas hyperglycaemia reduced the odds of death (AOR 0.34, 0.13-0.91). The ROC [area under the curve at 0.753 (95% CI 0.684-0.820)] indicated that glycaemia had a moderate predictive value for death and identified an optimal threshold at glycaemia <6.1 mmol/l, (sensitivity 64.5% and specificity 75.1%). CONCLUSIONS: If there is a threshold of blood glucose which defines a worse prognosis, it is at a higher level than the current definition of 2.2 mmol/l.

Growth arrest-specific gene 6 » (Gas6) as an intra-hospital mortality predictor for patients in septic shock

Aim: Gas6 is known to be elevated in sepsis, correlating with the severity of infection and¦organ failure. We aimed to investigate the performance of Gas6 plasma levels at¦admission to predict the risk of mortality in a cohort of septic patients.¦Methods: We used prospectively collected data and plasma samples from the "Sepsis¦Cohorte Romande". Gas6 level was measured by ELISA at admission and expressed in¦percentage relative to its level in a pool of normal plasma.¦Results: Non-survivors (n=21) presented higher Gas6 levels than survivors (n=73) (median¦258% vs 164%, IQR 194 and 117 respectively) (p=0.0027). Gas6 correlated positively with¦different cytokines and was the best mortality predictor, as shown by the ROC curves area.¦In patients with septic shock (n=66), using 249% as a cut-off value, Gas6 measurement¦had a specificity of 67% and a sensitivity of 81% for predicting mortality. ROC curve area¦was 0.75. Positive and negative predictive values were 57% and 87%, respectively.¦Conclusion: Thus, Gas6 plasma level at admission might be a useful tool to predict¦mortality in patients with septic shock. Although Gas6 hold promise as an early sepsis¦marker, its precise implication in sepsis remains to be elucidated. Our observation should¦be further investigated in larger prospective clinical trials.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients with chest pain: a clinical prediction score.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.

INTERMED predicts non-return to work in an occupational rehabilitation setting for individuals with orthopaedic trauma-Part I

Introduction.- Knowledge of predictors of an unfavourable outcome, e.g. non-return to work after an injury enables to identify patients at risk and to target interventions for modifiable predictors. It has been recently shown that INTERMED; a tool to measure biopsychosocial complexity in four domains (biologic, psychologic, social and care, with a score between 0-60 points) can be useful in this context. The aim of this study was to set up a predictive model for non-return to work using INTERMED in patients in vocational rehabilitation after orthopaedic injury.Patients and methods.- In this longitudinal prospective study, the cohort consisted of 2156 consecutively included inpatients with orthopaedic trauma attending a rehabilitation hospital after a work, traffic or sport related injury. Two years after discharge, a questionnaire regarding return to work was sent (1502 returned their questionnaires). In addition to INTERMED, 18 predictors known at baseline of the rehabilitation were selected based on previous research. A multivariable logistic regression was performed.Results.- In the multivariate model, not-returning to work at 2 years was significantly predicted by the INTERMED: odds-ratio (OR) 1.08 (95% confidence interval, CI [1.06; 1.11]) for a one point increase in scale; by qualified work-status before the injury OR = 0.74, CI (0.54; 0.99), by using French as preferred language OR = 0.60, CI (0.45; 0.80), by upper-extremity injury OR = 1.37, CI (1.03; 1.81), by higher education (> 9 years) OR = 0.74, CI (0.55; 1.00), and by a 10 year increase in age OR = 1.15, CI (1.02; 1.29). The area under the receiver-operator-characteristics curve (ROC)-curve was 0.733 for the full model (INTERMED plus 18 variables).Discussion.- These results confirm that the total score of the INTERMED is a significant predictor for return to work. The full model with 18 predictors combined with the total score of INTERMED has good predictive value. However, the number of variables (19) to measure is high for the use as screening tool in a clinic.