Maintenance strategy optimization using a continuous-state partially observable semi-Markov decision process

Due to the limitation of current condition monitoring technologies, the estimates of asset health states may contain some uncertainties. A maintenance strategy ignoring this uncertainty of asset health state can cause additional costs or downtime. The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) is a commonly used approach to derive optimal maintenance strategies when asset health inspections are imperfect. However, existing applications of the POMDP to maintenance decision-making largely adopt the discrete time and state assumptions. The discrete-time assumption requires the health state transitions and maintenance activities only happen at discrete epochs, which cannot model the failure time accurately and is not cost-effective. The discrete health state assumption, on the other hand, may not be elaborate enough to improve the effectiveness of maintenance. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP). An algorithm that combines the Monte Carlo-based density projection method and the policy iteration is developed to solve the POSMDP. Different types of maintenance activities (i.e., inspections, replacement, and imperfect maintenance) are considered in this paper. The next maintenance action and the corresponding waiting durations are optimized jointly to minimize the long-run expected cost per unit time and availability. The result of simulation studies shows that the proposed maintenance optimization approach is more cost-effective than maintenance strategies derived by another two approximate methods, when regular inspection intervals are adopted. The simulation study also shows that the maintenance cost can be further reduced by developing maintenance strategies with state-dependent maintenance intervals using the POSMDP. In addition, during the simulation studies the proposed POSMDP shows the ability to adopt a cost-effective strategy structure when multiple types of maintenance activities are involved.

Oral intake and serum levels of ascorbic acid in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis patients

Oral intake of ascorbic acid is essential for optimum health in human beings. Continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients have an increased need for ascorbic acid, because of increased loss through dialysate, reduced intake owing to nausea and loss of appetite, and increased oxidative stress. However, optimum intake is still controversial. We studied 50 clinically stable patients to determine the relationship between oral ascorbic acid intake and serum ascorbic acid (SAA) level. Total oral intake ranged from 28 mg daily to 412 mg daily. Only one patient had an oral intake of ascorbic acid below 60 mg per day. The SAA levels ranged from 1 mg/L to 36.17 mg/L. Although a strong correlation existed between intake and SAA (p < 0.001, R2 = 0.47), the variation in SAA at any given intake level was wide. Of the studied patients, 62% had an SAA < 8.7 mg/L, 40% had an SAA < 5.1 mg/L (below the level in a healthy population), and 12% had a level below 2 mg/L (scorbutic). None of the patients demonstrated clinical manifestations of scurvy. Our results show that, in CAPD patients, ascorbic acid deficiency can be reliably detected only with SAA measurements, and oral intake may influence SAA level. To maintain ascorbic acid in the normal range for healthy adults, daily oral intake needs to be increased above the U.S. recommended dietary allowance to 80-140 mg.

Continuous and pedagogically sound assessment : A new economy of power relations in Australian Law schools

In recent decades, assessment practices within Australian law schools have moved from the overwhelming use of end-of-year closed-book examinations to an increase in the use of a wider range of techniques. This shift is often characterised as providing a ‘better’ learning environment for students, contributing more positively to their own ‘personal development’ within higher education, or, considered along the lines of critical legal thought, as ‘liberating’ them from the ‘conservatising’ and ‘indoctrinating’ effects of the power relations that operate in law schools. This paper seeks to render problematic such liberal-progressive narratives about these changes to law school assessment practices. It will do so by utilising the work of French historian and philosopher Michel Foucault on power, arguing that the current range of assessment techniques demonstrates a shift in the ‘economy’ of power relations within the law school. Rather than ‘liberating’ students from relations of power, these practices actually extend the power relations through which students are governed. This analysis is intended to inform legal education research and assessment practice by providing a far more nuanced conceptual framework than one that seeks to ‘free’ law students from these ‘repressive’ practices, or hopes to ‘objectively’ contribute to their ‘personal development’.

Continuous innovation in SMEs : how design innovation shapes business performance through doing more with less

Firms face the challenge to survive and thrive in an increasingly competitive global market, developing strategies to continuously innovate, often having to do more with less. Increasing awareness of the benefits of stimulating continuous innovation in small and medium enterprises has led to the development and implementation of design innovation programs, with many western countries investing in design innovation programs for better firm performance. This paper investigates how firms respond to a design innovation program and engage in continuous innovation, doing more business with a focused less diverse strategy. Early findings from a study of companies engaged in a design innovation program indicate that applying design principles to all aspects of their business has delivered better business performance and better positioning in global markets.

A continuous time model for election timing

We consider a continuous time model for election timing in a Majoritarian Parliamentary System where the government maintains a constitutional right to call an early election. Our model is based on the two-party-preferred data that measure the popularity of the government and the opposition over time. We describe the poll process by a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) and use a martingale approach to derive a Partial Differential Equation (PDE) for the government’s expected remaining life in office. A comparison is made between a three-year and a four-year maximum term and we also provide the exercise boundary for calling an election. Impacts on changes in parameters in the SDE, the probability of winning the election and maximum terms on the call exercise boundaries are discussed and analysed. An application of our model to the Australian Federal Election for House of Representatives is also given.

A longitudinal study of corporate earnings guidance in Australia’s continuous disclosure environment

Since the introduction of a statutory‐backed continuous disclosure regime (CDR) in 1994, regulatory reforms have significantly increased litigation risk in Australia for failure to disclose material information or for false and misleading disclosure. However, there is almost no empirical research on the impact of the reforms on corporate disclosure behaviour. Motivated by the absence of research and using management earnings forecasts (MEFs) as a disclosure proxy, this study examines (1) why managers issue earnings forecasts, (2) what firm‐specific factors influence MEF characteristics, and (3) how MEF behaviour changes as litigation risk increases. Based on theories in information economics, a theoretical framework for MEF behaviour is formulated which includes antecedent influencing factors related to firms‟ internal and external environments. Applying this framework, hypotheses are developed and tested using multivariate models and a large sample of hand-collected MEFs (7,213) issued by top 500 ASX-listed companies over the 1994 to 2008 period. The results reveal strong support for the hypotheses. First, MEFs are issued to reduce information asymmetry, litigation risk and signal superior performance. Second, firms with better financial performance, smaller earnings changes, and lower operating uncertainty provide better quality MEFs. Third, forecast frequency and quality (accuracy, timeliness and precision) noticeably improve as litigation risk increases. However, managers appear to be still reluctant to disclose earnings forecasts when there are large earnings changes, and an asymmetric treatment of news type continues to prevail (a good news bias). Thus, the findings generally provide support for the effectiveness of the CDR regulatory reforms in improving disclosure behaviour and will be valuable to market participants and corporate regulators in understanding the implications of management forecasting decisions and areas for further improvement.

Motivational Interviewing (MINT) improves Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP) acceptance and adherence : a randomised controlled trial

Objective: Adherence to Continuous Positive Airway Pressure Therapy (CPAP) for Obstructive Sleep Apnoea (OSA) is poor. We assessed the effectiveness of a motivational interviewing intervention (MINT) in addition to best practice standard care to improve acceptance and adherence to CPAP therapy in people with a new diagnosis of OSA. Method: 106 Australian adults (69% male) with a new diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnoea and clinical recommendation for CPAP treatment were recruited from a tertiary sleep disorders centre. Participants were randomly assigned to receive either three sessions of a motivational interviewing intervention ‘MINT’ (n=53; mean age=55.4 years), or no intervention ‘Control’ (n=53; mean age=57.74). The primary outcome was the difference between the groups in objective CPAP adherence at 1 month, 2 months, 3 months and 12 months follow-up. Results: Fifty (94%) participants in the MINT group and 50 (94%) of participants in the control group met all inclusion and exclusion criteria and were included in the primary analysis. The hours of CPAP use per night in the MINT group at 3 months was 4.63 hours and 3.16 hours in the control group (p=0.005). This represents almost 50% better adherence in the MINT group relative to the control group. Patients in the MINT group were substantially more likely to accept CPAP treatment. Conclusions: MINT is a brief, manualized, effective intervention which improves CPAP acceptance and objective adherence rates as compared to standard care alone.

Loop closure detection on a suburban road network using a continuous appearance-based trajectory

This paper presents a novel technique for performing SLAM along a continuous trajectory of appearance. Derived from components of FastSLAM and FAB-MAP, the new system dubbed Continuous Appearance-based Trajectory SLAM (CAT-SLAM) augments appearancebased place recognition with particle-filter based ‘pose filtering’ within a probabilistic framework, without calculating global feature geometry or performing 3D map construction. For loop closure detection CAT-SLAM updates in constant time regardless of map size. We evaluate the effectiveness of CAT-SLAM on a 16km outdoor road network and determine its loop closure performance relative to FAB-MAP. CAT-SLAM recognizes 3 times the number of loop closures for the case where no false positives occur, demonstrating its potential use for robust loop closure detection in large environments.

Investigation to enhance high speed rail accessibility

High Speed Rail (HSR) is rapidly gaining popularity worldwide as a safe and efficient transport option for long-distance travel. Designed to win market shares from air transport, HSR systems optimise their productivity between increasing speeds and station spacing to offer high quality service and gain ridership. Recent studies have investigated the effects that the deployment of HSR infrastructure has on spatial distribution and the economic development of cities and regions. Findings appear mostly positive at higher geographical scales, where HSR links connect major urban centres several hundred kilometres apart and already well positioned within a national or international context. Also, at the urban level, studies have shown regeneration and concentration effects around HSR station areas with positive returns on city’s image and economy. However, doubts persist on the effects of HSR at an intermediate scale, where the accessibility trade off on station spacing limits access to many small and medium agglomerations. Thereby, their ability to participate in the development opportunities facilitated by HSR infrastructure is significantly reduced. The locational advantages deriving from transport improvements appear contrasting especially in regions that tend to have a polycentric structure, where cities may present greater accessibility disparities between those served by HSR and those left behind. This thesis fits in this context where intermediate and regional cities do not directly enjoy the presence of an HSR station while having an existing or planned proximate HSR corridor. With the aim of understanding whether there might be a solution to this apparent incongruity, the research investigates strategies to integrate HSR accessibility at the regional level. While current literature recommends to commit with ancillary investments to the uplift of station areas and the renewal of feeder systems, I hypothesised the interoperability between the HSR and the conventional networks to explore the possibilities offered by mixed traffic and infrastructure sharing. Thus, I developed a methodology to quantify the exchange of benefits deriving from this synergistic interaction. In this way, it was possible to understand which level of service quality offered by alternative transit strategies best facilitates the distribution of accessibility benefits for areas far from actual HSR stations. Therefore, strategies were selected for their type of service capable of regional extensions and urban penetrations, while incorporating a combination of specific advantages (e.g. speed, sub-urbanity, capacity, frequency and automation) in order to emulate HSR quality with increasingly efficient services. The North-eastern Italian macro region was selected as case study to ground the research offering concurrently a peripheral polycentric metropolitan form, the presence of a planned HSR corridor with some portions of HSR infrastructure implementation, and the project to develop a suburban rail service extended regionally. Results show significant distributive potential, in terms of network effects produced in relation with HSR, in increasing proportions for all the strategies considered: a regional metro rail strategy (abbreviated RMR), a regional high speed rail strategy (abbreviated RHSR), a regional light rail transit (abbreviated LRT) strategy, and a non-stopping continuous railway system (abbreviated CRS) strategy. The provision of additional tools to value HSR infrastructure against its accessibility benefits and their regional distribution through alternative strategies beyond the actual HSR stations, would have great implications, both politically and technically, in moving towards new dimensions of HSR evaluation and development.

CAT-SLAM : probabilistic localisation and mapping using a continuous appearance-based trajectory

This paper describes a new system, dubbed Continuous Appearance-based Trajectory Simultaneous Localisation and Mapping (CAT-SLAM), which augments sequential appearance-based place recognition with local metric pose filtering to improve the frequency and reliability of appearance-based loop closure. As in other approaches to appearance-based mapping, loop closure is performed without calculating global feature geometry or performing 3D map construction. Loop-closure filtering uses a probabilistic distribution of possible loop closures along the robot’s previous trajectory, which is represented by a linked list of previously visited locations linked by odometric information. Sequential appearance-based place recognition and local metric pose filtering are evaluated simultaneously using a Rao–Blackwellised particle filter, which weights particles based on appearance matching over sequential frames and the similarity of robot motion along the trajectory. The particle filter explicitly models both the likelihood of revisiting previous locations and exploring new locations. A modified resampling scheme counters particle deprivation and allows loop-closure updates to be performed in constant time for a given environment. We compare the performance of CAT-SLAM with FAB-MAP (a state-of-the-art appearance-only SLAM algorithm) using multiple real-world datasets, demonstrating an increase in the number of correct loop closures detected by CAT-SLAM.

Continuous intravenous infusion of glucose induces endogenous hyperinsulinaemia and lamellar histopathology in Standardbred horses

Endocrinopathic laminitis is frequently associated with hyperinsulinaemia but the role of glucose in the pathogenesis of the disease has not been fully investigated. This study aimed to determine the endogenous insulin response to a quantity of glucose equivalent to that administered during a laminitis-inducing, euglycaemic, hyperinsulinaemic clamp, over 48. h in insulin-sensitive Standardbred racehorses. In addition, the study investigated whether glucose infusion, in the absence of exogenous insulin administration, would result in the development of clinical and histopathological evidence of laminitis. Glucose (50% dextrose) was infused intravenously at a rate of 0.68 mL/kg/h for 48. h in treated horses (n = 4) and control horses (n = 3) received a balanced electrolyte solution (0.68 mL/kg/h). Lamellar histology was examined at the conclusion of the experiment. Horses in the treatment group were insulin sensitive (M value 0.039 ± 0.0012. mmol/kg/min and M-to-I ratio (100×) 0.014 ± 0.002) as determined by an approximated hyperglycaemic clamp. Treated horses developed glycosuria, hyperglycaemia (10.7 ± 0.78. mmol/L) and hyperinsulinaemia (208 ± 26.1. μIU/mL), whereas control horses did not. None of the horses became lame as a consequence of the experiment but all of the treated horses developed histopathological evidence of laminitis in at least one foot. Combined with earlier studies, the results showed that laminitis may be induced by either insulin alone or a combination of insulin and glucose, but that it is unlikely to be due to a glucose overload mechanism. Based on the histopathological data, the potential threshold for insulin toxicity (i.e. laminitis) in horses may be at or below a serum concentration of ∼200. μIU/mL.

Towards persistent localization and mapping with a continuous appearance-based topology

Appearance-based localization can provide loop closure detection at vast scales regardless of accumulated metric error. However, the computation time and memory requirements of current appearance-based methods scale not only with the size of the environment but also with the operation time of the platform. Additionally, repeated visits to locations will develop multiple competing representations, which will reduce recall performance over time. These properties impose severe restrictions on long-term autonomy for mobile robots, as loop closure performance will inevitably degrade with increased operation time. In this paper we present a graphical extension to CAT-SLAM, a particle filter-based algorithm for appearance-based localization and mapping, to provide constant computation and memory requirements over time and minimal degradation of recall performance during repeated visits to locations. We demonstrate loop closure detection in a large urban environment with capped computation time and memory requirements and performance exceeding previous appearance-based methods by a factor of 2. We discuss the limitations of the algorithm with respect to environment size, appearance change over time and applications in topological planning and navigation for long-term robot operation.

Validation of a new hand-held electronic data capture method for continuous monitoring of subjective appetite sensations

Background When large scale trials are investigating the effects of interventions on appetite, it is paramount to efficiently monitor large amounts of human data. The original hand-held Electronic Appetite Ratings System (EARS) was designed to facilitate the administering and data management of visual analogue scales (VAS) of subjective appetite sensations. The purpose of this study was to validate a novel hand-held method (EARS II (HP® iPAQ)) against the standard Pen and Paper (P&P) method and the previously validated EARS. Methods Twelve participants (5 male, 7 female, aged 18-40) were involved in a fully repeated measures design. Participants were randomly assigned in a crossover design, to either high fat (>48% fat) or low fat (<28% fat) meal days, one week apart and completed ratings using the three data capture methods ordered according to Latin Square. The first set of appetite sensations was completed in a fasted state, immediately before a fixed breakfast. Thereafter, appetite sensations were completed every thirty minutes for 4h. An ad libitum lunch was provided immediately before completing a final set of appetite sensations. Results Repeated measures ANOVAs were conducted for ratings of hunger, fullness and desire to eat. There were no significant differences between P&P compared with either EARS or EARS II (p > 0.05). Correlation coefficients between P&P and EARS II, controlling for age and gender, were performed on Area Under the Curve ratings. R2 for Hunger (0.89), Fullness (0.96) and Desire to Eat (0.95) were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Conclusions EARS II was sensitive to the impact of a meal and recovery of appetite during the postprandial period and is therefore an effective device for monitoring appetite sensations. This study provides evidence and support for further validation of the novel EARS II method for monitoring appetite sensations during large scale studies. The added versatility means that future uses of the system provides the potential to monitor a range of other behavioural and physiological measures often important in clinical and free living trials.