846 resultados para C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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This paper addresses the numerical solution of random crack propagation problems using the coupling boundary element method (BEM) and reliability algorithms. Crack propagation phenomenon is efficiently modelled using BEM, due to its mesh reduction features. The BEM model is based on the dual BEM formulation, in which singular and hyper-singular integral equations are adopted to construct the system of algebraic equations. Two reliability algorithms are coupled with BEM model. The first is the well known response surface method, in which local, adaptive polynomial approximations of the mechanical response are constructed in search of the design point. Different experiment designs and adaptive schemes are considered. The alternative approach direct coupling, in which the limit state function remains implicit and its gradients are calculated directly from the numerical mechanical response, is also considered. The performance of both coupling methods is compared in application to some crack propagation problems. The investigation shows that direct coupling scheme converged for all problems studied, irrespective of the problem nonlinearity. The computational cost of direct coupling has shown to be a fraction of the cost of response surface solutions, regardless of experiment design or adaptive scheme considered. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Die transmembrane Potenzialdifferenz Δφm ist direkt mit der katalytischen Aktivität der Cytochrom c Oxidase (CcO) verknüpft. Die CcO ist das terminale Enzym (Komplex IV) in der Atmungskette der Mitochondrien. Das Enzym katalysiert die Reduktion von O2 zu 2 H2O. Dabei werden Elektronen vom natürlichen Substrat Cytochrom c zur CcO übertragen. Der Eleltronentransfer innerhalb der CcO ist an die Protonentranslokation über die Membran gekoppelt. Folglich bildet sich über der inneren Membrane der Mitochondrien eine Differenz in der Protonenkonzentration. Zusätzlich wird eine Potenzialdifferenz Δφm generiert.rnrnDas Transmembranpotenzial Δφm kann mit Hilfe der Fluoreszenzspektroskopie unter Einsatz eines potenzialemfindlichen Farbstoffs gemessen werden. Um quantitative Aussagen aus solchen Untersuchungen ableiten zu können, müssen zuvor Kalibrierungsmessungen am Membransystem durchgeführt werden.rnrnIn dieser Arbeit werden Kalibrierungsmessungen von Δφm in einer Modellmembrane mit inkorporiertem CcO vorgestellt. Dazu wurde ein biomimetisches Membransystem, die Proteinverankerte Doppelschicht (protein-tethered Bilayer Lipid Membrane, ptBLM), auf einem transparenten, leitfähigem Substrat (Indiumzinnoxid, ITO) entwickelt. ITO ermöglicht den simultanen Einsatz von elektrochemischen und Fluoreszenz- oder optischen wellenleiterspektroskopischen Methoden. Das Δφm in der ptBLM wurde durch extern angelegte, definierte elektrische Spannungen induziert. rnrnEine dünne Hydrogelschicht wurde als "soft cushion" für die ptBLM auf ITO eingesetzt. Das Polymernetzwerk enthält die NTA Funktionsgruppen zur orientierten Immobilisierung der CcO auf der Oberfläche der Hydrogels mit Hilfe der Ni-NTA Technik. Die ptBLM wurde nach der Immobilisierung der CcO mittels in-situ Dialyse gebildet. Elektrochemische Impedanzmessungen zeigten einen hohen elektrischen Widerstand (≈ 1 MΩ) der ptBLM. Optische Wellenleiterspektren (SPR / OWS) zeigten eine erhöhte Anisotropie des Systems nach der Bildung der Doppellipidschicht. Cyklovoltammetriemessungen von reduziertem Cytochrom c bestätigten die Aktivität der CcO in der Hydrogel-gestützten ptBLM. Das Membranpotenzial in der Hydrogel-gestützten ptBLM, induziert durch definierte elektrische Spannungen, wurde mit Hilfe der ratiometrischen Fluoreszenzspektroskopie gemessen. Referenzmessungen mit einer einfach verankerten Dopplellipidschicht (tBLM) lieferten einen Umrechnungsfaktor zwischen dem ratiometrischen Parameter Rn und dem Membranpotenzial (0,05 / 100 mV). Die Nachweisgrenze für das Membranpotenzial in einer Hydrogel-gestützten ptBLM lag bei ≈ 80 mV. Diese Daten dienen als gute Grundlage für künftige Untersuchungen des selbstgenerierten Δφm der CcO in einer ptBLM.
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This work is focused on the study of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers, and in particular on the realization of conceptual schemes to evaluate the risk associated with it. Saltwater intrusion depends on different natural and anthropic factors, both presenting a strong aleatory behaviour, that should be considered for an optimal management of the territory and water resources. Given the uncertainty of problem parameters, the risk associated with salinization needs to be cast in a probabilistic framework. On the basis of a widely adopted sharp interface formulation, key hydrogeological problem parameters are modeled as random variables, and global sensitivity analysis is used to determine their influence on the position of saltwater interface. The analyses presented in this work rely on an efficient model reduction technique, based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion, able to combine the best description of the model without great computational burden. When the assumptions of classical analytical models are not respected, and this occurs several times in the applications to real cases of study, as in the area analyzed in the present work, one can adopt data-driven techniques, based on the analysis of the data characterizing the system under study. It follows that a model can be defined on the basis of connections between the system state variables, with only a limited number of assumptions about the "physical" behaviour of the system.
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The overall objective of this thesis was to gain further understanding of the non-enzymatic mechanisms involved in brown-rot wood decay, especially the role of pH, oxalic acid, and low molecular catecholate compounds on the dissolution and reduction of iron, and the formation of reactive oxygen species. Another focus of this study will be the potential application of a biomimetic free radical generating system inspired from fungi wood decay process, especially the non-enzymatic mechanism. The possible pathways of iron uptake and iron redox cycling in non-enzymatic brown-rot decay were investigated in this study. UV-Vis spectroscopy and HPLC were employed to study the kinetics and pathways of the interaction between iron and model catecholate compounds under different pH and chelator/iron molar ratio conditions. Iron chelation and reduction during early non-enzymatic wood decay processes have been studied in this thesis. The results indicate that the effects of the chelator/iron ratio, the pH, and other reaction parameters on the hydroxyl radical generation in a Fenton type system can be determined using ESR spin-trapping techniques. Data also support the hypothesis that superoxide radicals are involved in chelator-mediated Fenton processes. The mechanisms involved in free radical activation of Thermal Mechanical Pulp fibers were investigated. The activation of TMP fibers was evaluated by ESR measurement of free phenoxy radical generation on solid fibers. The results indicate that low molecular weight chelators can improve Fenton reactions, thus in turn stimulating the free radical activation of TMP fibers. A mediated Fenton system was evaluated for decolorization of several types of dyes. The result shows that the Fenton system mediated by a catecholate-type chelator effectively reduced the color of a diluted solution of synthetic dyes after 90 minutes of treatment at room temperature. The results show that compared to a neat Fenton process, the mediated Fenton decolorization process increased the production, and therefore the effective longevity, of hydroxyl radical species to increase the decolorization efficiency.
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Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^
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Las transformaciones martensíticas (MT) se definen como un cambio en la estructura del cristal para formar una fase coherente o estructuras de dominio multivariante, a partir de la fase inicial con la misma composición, debido a pequeños intercambios o movimientos atómicos cooperativos. En el siglo pasado se han descubierto MT en diferentes materiales partiendo desde los aceros hasta las aleaciones con memoria de forma, materiales cerámicos y materiales inteligentes. Todos muestran propiedades destacables como alta resistencia mecánica, memoria de forma, efectos de superelasticidad o funcionalidades ferroicas como la piezoelectricidad, electro y magneto-estricción etc. Varios modelos/teorías se han desarrollado en sinergia con el desarrollo de la física del estado sólido para entender por qué las MT generan microstructuras muy variadas y ricas que muestran propiedades muy interesantes. Entre las teorías mejor aceptadas se encuentra la Teoría Fenomenológica de la Cristalografía Martensítica (PTMC, por sus siglas en inglés) que predice el plano de hábito y las relaciones de orientación entre la austenita y la martensita. La reinterpretación de la teoría PTMC en un entorno de mecánica del continuo (CM-PTMC) explica la formación de los dominios de estructuras multivariantes, mientras que la teoría de Landau con dinámica de inercia desentraña los mecanismos físicos de los precursores y otros comportamientos dinámicos. La dinámica de red cristalina desvela la reducción de la dureza acústica de las ondas de tensión de red que da lugar a transformaciones débiles de primer orden en el desplazamiento. A pesar de las diferencias entre las teorías estáticas y dinámicas dado su origen en diversas ramas de la física (por ejemplo mecánica continua o dinámica de la red cristalina), estas teorías deben estar inherentemente conectadas entre sí y mostrar ciertos elementos en común en una perspectiva unificada de la física. No obstante las conexiones físicas y diferencias entre las teorías/modelos no se han tratado hasta la fecha, aun siendo de importancia crítica para la mejora de modelos de MT y para el desarrollo integrado de modelos de transformaciones acopladas de desplazamiento-difusión. Por lo tanto, esta tesis comenzó con dos objetivos claros. El primero fue encontrar las conexiones físicas y las diferencias entre los modelos de MT mediante un análisis teórico detallado y simulaciones numéricas. El segundo objetivo fue expandir el modelo de Landau para ser capaz de estudiar MT en policristales, en el caso de transformaciones acopladas de desplazamiento-difusión, y en presencia de dislocaciones. Comenzando con un resumen de los antecedente, en este trabajo se presentan las bases físicas de los modelos actuales de MT. Su capacidad para predecir MT se clarifica mediante el ansis teórico y las simulaciones de la evolución microstructural de MT de cúbicoatetragonal y cúbicoatrigonal en 3D. Este análisis revela que el modelo de Landau con representación irreducible de la deformación transformada es equivalente a la teoría CM-PTMC y al modelo de microelasticidad para predecir los rasgos estáticos durante la MT, pero proporciona una mejor interpretación de los comportamientos dinámicos. Sin embargo, las aplicaciones del modelo de Landau en materiales estructurales están limitadas por su complejidad. Por tanto, el primer resultado de esta tesis es el desarrollo del modelo de Landau nolineal con representación irreducible de deformaciones y de la dinámica de inercia para policristales. La simulación demuestra que el modelo propuesto es consistente fcamente con el CM-PTMC en la descripción estática, y también permite una predicción del diagrama de fases con la clásica forma ’en C’ de los modos de nucleación martensítica activados por la combinación de temperaturas de enfriamiento y las condiciones de tensión aplicada correlacionadas con la transformación de energía de Landau. Posteriomente, el modelo de Landau de MT es integrado con un modelo de transformación de difusión cuantitativa para elucidar la relajación atómica y la difusión de corto alcance de los elementos durante la MT en acero. El modelo de transformaciones de desplazamiento y difusión incluye los efectos de la relajación en borde de grano para la nucleación heterogenea y la evolución espacio-temporal de potenciales de difusión y movilidades químicas mediante el acoplamiento de herramientas de cálculo y bases de datos termo-cinéticos de tipo CALPHAD. El modelo se aplica para estudiar la evolución microstructural de aceros al carbono policristalinos procesados por enfriamiento y partición (Q&P) en 2D. La microstructura y la composición obtenida mediante la simulación se comparan con los datos experimentales disponibles. Los resultados muestran el importante papel jugado por las diferencias en movilidad de difusión entre la fase austenita y martensita en la distibución de carbono en las aceros. Finalmente, un modelo multi-campo es propuesto mediante la incorporación del modelo de dislocación en grano-grueso al modelo desarrollado de Landau para incluir las diferencias morfológicas entre aceros y aleaciones con memoria de forma con la misma ruptura de simetría. La nucleación de dislocaciones, la formación de la martensita ’butterfly’, y la redistribución del carbono después del revenido son bien representadas en las simulaciones 2D del estudio de la evolución de la microstructura en aceros representativos. Con dicha simulación demostramos que incluyendo las dislocaciones obtenemos para dichos aceros, una buena comparación frente a los datos experimentales de la morfología de los bordes de macla, la existencia de austenita retenida dentro de la martensita, etc. Por tanto, basado en un modelo integral y en el desarrollo de códigos durante esta tesis, se ha creado una herramienta de modelización multiescala y multi-campo. Dicha herramienta acopla la termodinámica y la mecánica del continuo en la macroescala con la cinética de difusión y los modelos de campo de fase/Landau en la mesoescala, y también incluye los principios de la cristalografía y de la dinámica de red cristalina en la microescala. ABSTRACT Martensitic transformation (MT), in a narrow sense, is defined as the change of the crystal structure to form a coherent phase, or multi-variant domain structures out from a parent phase with the same composition, by small shuffles or co-operative movements of atoms. Over the past century, MTs have been discovered in different materials from steels to shape memory alloys, ceramics, and smart materials. They lead to remarkable properties such as high strength, shape memory/superelasticity effects or ferroic functionalities including piezoelectricity, electro- and magneto-striction, etc. Various theories/models have been developed, in synergy with development of solid state physics, to understand why MT can generate these rich microstructures and give rise to intriguing properties. Among the well-established theories, the Phenomenological Theory of Martensitic Crystallography (PTMC) is able to predict the habit plane and the orientation relationship between austenite and martensite. The re-interpretation of the PTMC theory within a continuum mechanics framework (CM-PTMC) explains the formation of the multivariant domain structures, while the Landau theory with inertial dynamics unravels the physical origins of precursors and other dynamic behaviors. The crystal lattice dynamics unveils the acoustic softening of the lattice strain waves leading to the weak first-order displacive transformation, etc. Though differing in statics or dynamics due to their origins in different branches of physics (e.g. continuum mechanics or crystal lattice dynamics), these theories should be inherently connected with each other and show certain elements in common within a unified perspective of physics. However, the physical connections and distinctions among the theories/models have not been addressed yet, although they are critical to further improving the models of MTs and to develop integrated models for more complex displacivediffusive coupled transformations. Therefore, this thesis started with two objectives. The first one was to reveal the physical connections and distinctions among the models of MT by means of detailed theoretical analyses and numerical simulations. The second objective was to expand the Landau model to be able to study MTs in polycrystals, in the case of displacive-diffusive coupled transformations, and in the presence of the dislocations. Starting with a comprehensive review, the physical kernels of the current models of MTs are presented. Their ability to predict MTs is clarified by means of theoretical analyses and simulations of the microstructure evolution of cubic-to-tetragonal and cubic-to-trigonal MTs in 3D. This analysis reveals that the Landau model with irreducible representation of the transformed strain is equivalent to the CM-PTMC theory and microelasticity model to predict the static features during MTs but provides better interpretation of the dynamic behaviors. However, the applications of the Landau model in structural materials are limited due its the complexity. Thus, the first result of this thesis is the development of a nonlinear Landau model with irreducible representation of strains and the inertial dynamics for polycrystals. The simulation demonstrates that the updated model is physically consistent with the CM-PTMC in statics, and also permits a prediction of a classical ’C shaped’ phase diagram of martensitic nucleation modes activated by the combination of quenching temperature and applied stress conditions interplaying with Landau transformation energy. Next, the Landau model of MT is further integrated with a quantitative diffusional transformation model to elucidate atomic relaxation and short range diffusion of elements during the MT in steel. The model for displacive-diffusive transformations includes the effects of grain boundary relaxation for heterogeneous nucleation and the spatio-temporal evolution of diffusion potentials and chemical mobility by means of coupling with a CALPHAD-type thermo-kinetic calculation engine and database. The model is applied to study for the microstructure evolution of polycrystalline carbon steels processed by the Quenching and Partitioning (Q&P) process in 2D. The simulated mixed microstructure and composition distribution are compared with available experimental data. The results show that the important role played by the differences in diffusion mobility between austenite and martensite to the partitioning in carbon steels. Finally, a multi-field model is proposed by incorporating the coarse-grained dislocation model to the developed Landau model to account for the morphological difference between steels and shape memory alloys with same symmetry breaking. The dislocation nucleation, the formation of the ’butterfly’ martensite, and the redistribution of carbon after tempering are well represented in the 2D simulations for the microstructure evolution of the representative steels. With the simulation, we demonstrate that the dislocations account for the experimental observation of rough twin boundaries, retained austenite within martensite, etc. in steels. Thus, based on the integrated model and the in-house codes developed in thesis, a preliminary multi-field, multiscale modeling tool is built up. The new tool couples thermodynamics and continuum mechanics at the macroscale with diffusion kinetics and phase field/Landau model at the mesoscale, and also includes the essentials of crystallography and crystal lattice dynamics at microscale.
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Mode of access: Internet.
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Title on spine: Library applications of data processing, 1973.
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Mode of access: Internet.
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"Child study literature" : p. xix-xxi.
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CONTENTS. - A model village of homes. - An English half-holiday. - Stage-coaching in England. - Coffee-houses in Great-Britain. - The Sunday-school centenary, London. - A fete of the French republic. - A visit to the World's Columbian exposition, Chicago. - The Great Lakes and the Mediterranean. - Spanish rule, and its end, in Cuba. - A college vacation at the front. - How fine papers are manufactured. - Entertainments for the people. - The flags of all nations.