937 resultados para C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods


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Measures of agro-ecosystems genetic variability are essential to sustain scientific-based actions and policies tending to protect the ecosystem services they provide. To build the genetic variability datum it is necessary to deal with a large number and different types of variables. Molecular marker data is highly dimensional by nature, and frequently additional types of information are obtained, as morphological and physiological traits. This way, genetic variability studies are usually associated with the measurement of several traits on each entity. Multivariate methods are aimed at finding proximities between entities characterized by multiple traits by summarizing information in few synthetic variables. In this work we discuss and illustrate several multivariate methods used for different purposes to build the datum of genetic variability. We include methods applied in studies for exploring the spatial structure of genetic variability and the association of genetic data to other sources of information. Multivariate techniques allow the pursuit of the genetic variability datum, as a unifying notion that merges concepts of type, abundance and distribution of variability at gene level.

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The need for the simulation of spectrum compatible earthquake time histories has existed since earthquake engineering for complicated structures began. More than the safety of the main structure, the analysis of the equipment (piping, racks, etc.) can only be assessed on the basis of the time history of the floor in which they are contained. This paper presents several methods for calculating simulated spectrum compatible earthquakes as well as a comparison between them. As a result of this comparison, the use of the phase content in real earthquakes as proposed by Ohsaki appears as an effective alternative to the classical methods. With this method, it is possible to establish an approach without the arbitrary modulation commonly used in other methods. Different procedures are described as is the influence of the different parameters which appear in the analysis. Several numerical examples are also presented, and the effectiveness of Ohsaki's method is confirmed.

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Cover title.

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Most of the pages of the photocopy, which are in double columns, represent two pages of the original.

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Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

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MSC subject classification: 65C05, 65U05.

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2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: primary: 60J80, 60J85, secondary: 62M09, 92D40

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This study had three objectives: (1) to develop a comprehensive truck simulation that executes rapidly, has a modular program construction to allow variation of vehicle characteristics, and is able to realistically predict vehicle motion and the tire-road surface interaction forces; (2) to develop a model of doweled portland cement concrete pavement that can be used to determine slab deflection and stress at predetermined nodes, and that allows for the variation of traditional thickness design factors; and (3) to implement these two models on a work station with suitable menu driven modules so that both existing and proposed pavements can be evaluated with respect to design life, given specific characteristics of the heavy vehicles that will be using the facility. This report summarizes the work that has been performed during the first year of the study. Briefly, the following has been accomplished: A two dimensional model of a typical 3-S2 tractor-trailer combination was created. A finite element structural analysis program, ANSYS, was used to model the pavement. Computer runs have been performed varying the parameters defining both vehicle and road elements. The resulting time specific displacements for each node are plotted, and the displacement basin is generated for defined vehicles. Relative damage to the pavement can then be estimated. A damage function resulting from load replications must be assumed that will be reflected by further pavement deterioration. Comparison with actual damage on Interstate 80 will eventually allow verification of these procedures.

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This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.

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In a very volatile industry of high technology it is of utmost importance to accurately forecast customers’ demand. However, statistical forecasting of sales, especially in heavily competitive electronics product business, has always been a challenging task due to very high variation in demand and very short product life cycles of products. The purpose of this thesis is to validate if statistical methods can be applied to forecasting sales of short life cycle electronics products and provide a feasible framework for implementing statistical forecasting in the environment of the case company. Two different approaches have been developed for forecasting on short and medium term and long term horizons. Both models are based on decomposition models, but differ in interpretation of the model residuals. For long term horizons residuals are assumed to represent white noise, whereas for short and medium term forecasting horizon residuals are modeled using statistical forecasting methods. Implementation of both approaches is performed in Matlab. Modeling results have shown that different markets exhibit different demand patterns and therefore different analytical approaches are appropriate for modeling demand in these markets. Moreover, the outcomes of modeling imply that statistical forecasting can not be handled separately from judgmental forecasting, but should be perceived only as a basis for judgmental forecasting activities. Based on modeling results recommendations for further deployment of statistical methods in sales forecasting of the case company are developed.

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The Kineticist's Workbench is a program that simulates chemical reaction mechanisms by predicting, generating, and interpreting numerical data. Prior to simulation, it analyzes a given mechanism to predict that mechanism's behavior; it then simulates the mechanism numerically; and afterward, it interprets and summarizes the data it has generated. In performing these tasks, the Workbench uses a variety of techniques: graph- theoretic algorithms (for analyzing mechanisms), traditional numerical simulation methods, and algorithms that examine simulation results and reinterpret them in qualitative terms. The Workbench thus serves as a prototype for a new class of scientific computational tools---tools that provide symbiotic collaborations between qualitative and quantitative methods.

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Hybrid vehicles represent the future for automakers, since they allow to improve the fuel economy and to reduce the pollutant emissions. A key component of the hybrid powertrain is the Energy Storage System, that determines the ability of the vehicle to store and reuse energy. Though electrified Energy Storage Systems (ESS), based on batteries and ultracapacitors, are a proven technology, Alternative Energy Storage Systems (AESS), based on mechanical, hydraulic and pneumatic devices, are gaining interest because they give the possibility of realizing low-cost mild-hybrid vehicles. Currently, most literature of design methodologies focuses on electric ESS, which are not suitable for AESS design. In this contest, The Ohio State University has developed an Alternative Energy Storage System design methodology. This work focuses on the development of driving cycle analysis methodology that is a key component of Alternative Energy Storage System design procedure. The proposed methodology is based on a statistical approach to analyzing driving schedules that represent the vehicle typical use. Driving data are broken up into power events sequence, namely traction and braking events, and for each of them, energy-related and dynamic metrics are calculated. By means of a clustering process and statistical synthesis methods, statistically-relevant metrics are determined. These metrics define cycle representative braking events. By using these events as inputs for the Alternative Energy Storage System design methodology, different system designs are obtained. Each of them is characterized by attributes, namely system volume and weight. In the last part the work, the designs are evaluated in simulation by introducing and calculating a metric related to the energy conversion efficiency. Finally, the designs are compared accounting for attributes and efficiency values. In order to automate the driving data extraction and synthesis process, a specific script Matlab based has been developed. Results show that the driving cycle analysis methodology, based on the statistical approach, allows to extract and synthesize cycle representative data. The designs based on cycle statistically-relevant metrics are properly sized and have satisfying efficiency values with respect to the expectations. An exception is the design based on the cycle worst-case scenario, corresponding to same approach adopted by the conventional electric ESS design methodologies. In this case, a heavy system with poor efficiency is produced. The proposed new methodology seems to be a valid and consistent support for Alternative Energy Storage System design.

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Mixed longitudinal designs are important study designs for many areas of medical research. Mixed longitudinal studies have several advantages over cross-sectional or pure longitudinal studies, including shorter study completion time and ability to separate time and age effects, thus are an attractive choice. Statistical methodology used in general longitudinal studies has been rapidly developing within the last few decades. Common approaches for statistical modeling in studies with mixed longitudinal designs have been the linear mixed-effects model incorporating an age or time effect. The general linear mixed-effects model is considered an appropriate choice to analyze repeated measurements data in longitudinal studies. However, common use of linear mixed-effects model on mixed longitudinal studies often incorporates age as the only random-effect but fails to take into consideration the cohort effect in conducting statistical inferences on age-related trajectories of outcome measurements. We believe special attention should be paid to cohort effects when analyzing data in mixed longitudinal designs with multiple overlapping cohorts. Thus, this has become an important statistical issue to address. ^ This research aims to address statistical issues related to mixed longitudinal studies. The proposed study examined the existing statistical analysis methods for the mixed longitudinal designs and developed an alternative analytic method to incorporate effects from multiple overlapping cohorts as well as from different aged subjects. The proposed study used simulation to evaluate the performance of the proposed analytic method by comparing it with the commonly-used model. Finally, the study applied the proposed analytic method to the data collected by an existing study Project HeartBeat!, which had been evaluated using traditional analytic techniques. Project HeartBeat! is a longitudinal study of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in childhood and adolescence using a mixed longitudinal design. The proposed model was used to evaluate four blood lipids adjusting for age, gender, race/ethnicity, and endocrine hormones. The result of this dissertation suggest the proposed analytic model could be a more flexible and reliable choice than the traditional model in terms of fitting data to provide more accurate estimates in mixed longitudinal studies. Conceptually, the proposed model described in this study has useful features, including consideration of effects from multiple overlapping cohorts, and is an attractive approach for analyzing data in mixed longitudinal design studies.^

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Low noise surfaces have been increasingly considered as a viable and cost-effective alternative to acoustical barriers. However, road planners and administrators frequently lack information on the correlation between the type of road surface and the resulting noise emission profile. To address this problem, a method to identify and classify different types of road pavements was developed, whereby near field road noise is analyzed using statistical learning methods. The vehicle rolling sound signal near the tires and close to the road surface was acquired by two microphones in a special arrangement which implements the Close-Proximity method. A set of features, characterizing the properties of the road pavement, was extracted from the corresponding sound profiles. A feature selection method was used to automatically select those that are most relevant in predicting the type of pavement, while reducing the computational cost. A set of different types of road pavement segments were tested and the performance of the classifier was evaluated. Results of pavement classification performed during a road journey are presented on a map, together with geographical data. This procedure leads to a considerable improvement in the quality of road pavement noise data, thereby increasing the accuracy of road traffic noise prediction models.