Um Modelo híbrido para previsão de curvas de produção de petróleo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Previsão de cargas elétricas através de um modelo híbrido de regressão com redes neurais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Relação dos indicadores microbiológicos com outros parâmetros limnológicos no rio Corumbataí, SP, no intuito de propor um modelo matemático para gestão ambiental

Pós-graduação em Ciências Biológicas (Microbiologia Aplicada) - IBRC

Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Radiogenic isotope trace composition of the Labrador Sea

Geological reconstructions and general circulation models suggest that the onset of both Northern Hemisphere glaciation, 2.7 Myr ago, and convection of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) were caused by the closure of the Panama Gateway ~4.5 Myr ago. Time series data that have been obtained from studies of ferromanganese crusts from the northwestern Atlantic suggest that radiogenic isotopes of intermediate ocean residence time (Pb and Nd) can serve as suitable tracers to reconstruct these events. However, it has been unclear until now as to whether the changes that have been observed in isotope composition at this time are the result of increased thermohaline circulation or due to the effects of increased glacial weathering. In this paper we adopt a box model approach to demonstrate that the shifts in radiogenic isotope compositions are unlikely to be due to changes in convection in LSW but can be explained in terms of increases of erosion levels due to the glaciation of Greenland and Canada. Furthermore, we provide experimental evidence for the incongruent release of a labile fraction of strongly radiogenic Pb and nonradiogenic Nd from continental detritus eroding into the Labrador Sea. This can be attributed to the glacial weathering of old continents and accounts for the paradox that one of the areas of the world most deficient in radiogenic Pb should provide such a rich supply of radiogenic Pb to the oceans. An important general conclusion is that the compositions of radiogenic isotopes in seawater are not always a reflection of their continental sources. Perhaps more importantly, the transition from chemical weathering to mechanical erosion is likely to result in significant variations in radiogenic tracers in seawater.

(Table 1) Estimated e-Nd(0) input calculated using the relative fraction of ODP Hole 105-647A amphibole grains originated from different provinces of the North America

Many marine radiogenic isotope records show both spatial and temporal variations, reflecting both the degree of mixing of distinct sources in the oceans and changes in the distribution of chemical weathering on the continents. However, changes in weathering and transport processes may themselves affect the composition of radiogenic isotopes released into seawater. The provenance of physically weathered material in the Labrador Sea, constrained through the use of Ar-Ar ages of individual detrital minerals, has been used to estimate the relative contributions of chemically weathered terranes releasing radiogenic isotopes into the Labrador Sea. A simple box-model approach for balancing observed Nd-isotope variations has been used to constrain the relative importance of localised input in the Labrador Sea, and the subsequent mixing of Labrador Sea Water into North Atlantic Deep-Water. The long-term pattern of erosion and deep-water formation around the North Atlantic seems to have been a relatively stable feature since 1.5 Ma, although there has been a dramatic shift in the nature of physical and chemical weathering affecting the release of Hf and Pb isotopes. The modelled Nd isotopes imply a relative decrease in water mass advection into the Labrador Sea between 2.4 and 1.5 Ma, accompanied by a decrease in the rate of overturning, possibly caused by an increased freshwater input into the Labrador Sea.

Aplicación de modelos autorregresivos a la simulación de las características físicas de envases de vidrio

Se presenta en este artículo la simulación de las características de envases de vidrio, mediante modelos auto regresivos (AR), siguiendo el enfoque Box-Jenkins. El artículo se presenta en dos partes: en la primera, se demuestra la adecuación de un modelo AR (2), para la simulación de los espesores a partir de las características estadísticas determinadas sobre cortes longitudinales de envases reales. En la segunda parte, se presenta la forma práctica que se ha desarrollado para la simulación de una muestra de veinte recipientes.

Simplified small-signal stability analysis for optimized power system architecture

The optimization of power architectures is a complex problem due to the plethora of different ways to connect various system components. This issue has been addressed by developing a methodology to design and optimize power architectures in terms of the most fundamental system features: size, cost and efficiency. The process assumes various simplifications regarding the utilized DC/DC converter models in order to prevent the simulation time to become excessive and, therefore, stability is not considered. The objective of this paper is to present a simplified method to analyze small-signal stability of a system in order to integrate it into the optimization methodology. A black-box modeling approach, applicable to commercial converters with unknown topology and components, is based on frequency response measurements enabling the system small-signal stability assessment. The applicability of passivity-based stability criterion is assessed. The stability margins are stated utilizing a concept of maximum peak criteria derived from the behavior of the impedance-based sensitivity function that provides a single number to state the robustness of the stability of a well-defined minor-loop gain.

Analyse exploratoire de la dynamique des maladies infectieuses communes de l'enfance au Canada

Thèse numérisée par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Analyse exploratoire de la dynamique des maladies infectieuses communes de l'enfance au Canada

Thèse numérisée par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Um Modelo híbrido para previsão de curvas de produção de petróleo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Non-planar double-box, massive and massless pentabox Feynman integrals in the negative-dimensional approach

The negative-dimensional integration method is a technique which can be applied, with success, in usual covariant gauge calculations. We consider three two-loop diagrams: the scalar massless non-planar double-box with six propagators and the scalar pentabox in two cases, where six virtual particles have the same mass, and in the case all of them are massless. Our results are given in terms of hypergeometric functions of Mandelstam variables and also for arbitrary exponents of propagators and dimension D.

The colloidal tool-box approach for fuel cell catalysts: Systematic study of perfluorosulfonate-ionomer impregnation and Pt loading

In this study, the correlation between the impregnation of proton exchange membrane fuel cell catalysts with perfluorosulfonate-ionomer (PFSI) and its electrochemical and electrocatalytic properties is investigated for different Pt loadings and carbon supports using a rotating-disk electrode (RDE) setup. We concentrate on its influence on the electrochemical surface area (ECSA) and the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) activity. For this purpose, platinum (Pt) nanoparticles are prepared via a colloidal based preparation route and supported on three different carbon supports. Based on RDE experiments, we show that the ionomer has an influence both on the Pt utilization and the apparent kinetic current density of ORR. The experimental data reveal a strong interaction in the microstructure between the electrochemical properties and the surface properties of the carbon supports, metal loading and ionomer content. This study demonstrates that the colloidal synthesis approach offers interesting potential for systematic studies for the optimization of fuel cell catalysts.

Description of continuous data using bar graphs: a misleading approach

INTRODUCTION:With the ease provided by current computational programs, medical and scientific journals use bar graphs to describe continuous data.METHODS:This manuscript discusses the inadequacy of bars graphs to present continuous data.RESULTS:Simulated data show that box plots and dot plots are more-feasible tools to describe continuous data.CONCLUSIONS:These plots are preferred to represent continuous variables since they effectively describe the range, shape, and variability of observations and clearly identify outliers. By contrast, bar graphs address only measures of central tendency. Bar graphs should be used only to describe qualitative data.