The EU's Promotion of External Democracy: In search of the plot. CEPS Policy Brief No. 281, 13 September 2012

This policy brief illustrates that both the conceptualisation of democracy and the means to achieve it remain vague, and explains why this is problematic. It points out the risks that stem from a lack of clear understanding about how human rights, governance, civil society and socio-economic development relate to democratisation. It concludes that the EU should reflect on the substance of its external democracy promotion policies and conceptualise the relationship between the different elements of democracy promotion cited above and democratisation. While ongoing reforms of international democracy promotion should continue, a wider debate on substance could help identify what the EU should support in the future. The EU should also establish a reflective external democracy promotion policy where the assessment of actions on democratic development becomes systematic and is institutionalised.

The effect of potato variety mixtures on epidemics of late blight, in relation to plot size and level of resistance

Potatoes of a number of varieties of contrasting levels of resistance were planted in pure or mixed stands in four experiments over 3 years. Three experiments compared the late blight severity and progress in mixtures with that in pure stands. Disease on susceptible or moderately resistant varieties typical of those in commercial use was similar in mixtures and pure stands. In 2 of 3 years, there were slight reductions on cv. Sante, which is moderately susceptible, in mixture with cv. Cara, which is moderately resistant. Cara was unaffected by this mixture. Mixtures of an immune or near-immune partner with Cara or Sante substantially reduced disease on the latter. The effect of the size of plots of individual varieties or mixtures on blight severity was compared in two experiments. Larger plots had a greater area under the disease progress curve, but the average rate of disease progress was greater in smaller plots; this may be because most disease progress took place later, under more favourable conditions, in the smaller plots. In one experiment, two planting densities were used. Density had no effect on disease and did not interact with mixture effects. The overall conclusion is that, while mixtures of potato varieties may be desirable for other reasons, they do not offer any improvement on the average of the disease resistance of the components.

Bode's maximum available feedback and phase margin

'Maximum Available Feedback' is Bode's term for the highest possible loop gain over a given bandwidth, with specified stability margins, in a single loop feedback system. His work using asymptotic analysis allowed Bode to develop a methodology for achieving this. However, the actual system performance differs from that specified, due to the use of asymptotic approximations, and the author[2] has described how, for instance, the actual phase margin is often much lower than required when the bandwidth is high, and proposed novel modifications to the asymptotes to address the issue. This paper gives some new analysis of such systems, showing that the method also contravenes Bode's definition of phase margin, and shows how the author's modifications can be used for different amounts of bandwidth.

Simplifying Bode's maximum available feedback design

Bode's method for obtaining 'maximum obtainable feedback' is a good example of a nontrivial feedback system design technique, but it is largely overlooked. This paper shows how the associated mathematics can be simplified and linear elements used in its implementation, so as to make it accessible for teaching to undergraduates.

Use of the ratio plot in capture-recapture estimation

Statistical graphics are a fundamental, yet often overlooked, set of components in the repertoire of data analytic tools. Graphs are quick and efficient, yet simple instruments of preliminary exploration of a dataset to understand its structure and to provide insight into influential aspects of inference such as departures from assumptions and latent patterns. In this paper, we present and assess a graphical device for choosing a method for estimating population size in capture-recapture studies of closed populations. The basic concept is derived from a homogeneous Poisson distribution where the ratios of neighboring Poisson probabilities multiplied by the value of the larger neighbor count are constant. This property extends to the zero-truncated Poisson distribution which is of fundamental importance in capture–recapture studies. In practice however, this distributional property is often violated. The graphical device developed here, the ratio plot, can be used for assessing specific departures from a Poisson distribution. For example, simple contaminations of an otherwise homogeneous Poisson model can be easily detected and a robust estimator for the population size can be suggested. Several robust estimators are developed and a simulation study is provided to give some guidance on which should be used in practice. More systematic departures can also easily be detected using the ratio plot. In this paper, the focus is on Gamma mixtures of the Poisson distribution which leads to a linear pattern (called structured heterogeneity) in the ratio plot. More generally, the paper shows that the ratio plot is monotone for arbitrary mixtures of power series densities.

Recovery based on plot experiments is a poor predictor of landscape-level population impacts of agricultural pesticides

Current European Union regulatory risk assessment allows application of pesticides provided that recovery of nontarget arthropods in-crop occurs within a year. Despite the long-established theory of source-sink dynamics, risk assessment ignores depletion of surrounding populations and typical field trials are restricted to plot-scale experiments. In the present study, the authors used agent-based modeling of 2 contrasting invertebrates, a spider and a beetle, to assess how the area of pesticide application and environmental half-life affect the assessment of recovery at the plot scale and impact the population at the landscape scale. Small-scale plot experiments were simulated for pesticides with different application rates and environmental half-lives. The same pesticides were then evaluated at the landscape scale (10 km × 10 km) assuming continuous year-on-year usage. The authors' results show that recovery time estimated from plot experiments is a poor indicator of long-term population impact at the landscape level and that the spatial scale of pesticide application strongly determines population-level impact. This raises serious doubts as to the utility of plot-recovery experiments in pesticide regulatory risk assessment for population-level protection. Predictions from the model are supported by empirical evidence from a series of studies carried out in the decade starting in 1988. The issues raised then can now be addressed using simulation. Prediction of impacts at landscape scales should be more widely used in assessing the risks posed by environmental stressors.

Bode na Sala fala do tema consumo na virada sustentável 2014

A série de eventos que trata de temas quentes da sustentabilidade é uma iniciativa da Revista Página22, do Centro de Estudos em Sustentabilidade da FGV-EAESP (GVces)

3º Debate "Bode na sala" (parte 1, 2 e 3)

Nesta edição, especialistas e público foram convidados a refletir sobre o desafio da economia de baixo carbono no contexto da atual crise econômica na qual vive o Brasil neste ano

Bode na sala: Página 22

O Bode na Sala é um evento realizado pela Revista Página22 e pelo FGVces com o objetivo de levantar questões provocativas sobre sustentabilidade. Este vídeo traz uma amostra de debates quentes sobre Consumo (1º semestre de 2014) e Crise Hídrica (1º semestre de 2015).

O índice BODE reflete o nível de atividade física na vida diária de pacientes com DPOC?

Objectives: To study the relationship between the level of physical activity in daily life and disease severity assessed by the BODE index in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods: Sixty-seven patients with COPD (36 men) with forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV(1)) of 39 (27-47)% predicted and age of 66 (61-72) years old were evaluated by spirometry, dyspnea levels (measured by the Medical Research Council scale, MRC) and by the 6-minute walking test (6MWT). The BODE index was calculated based on the body mass index (weight/height(2)), FEV(1), MRC and 6MWT, and then the patients were divided in four quartiles according to their scores (Quartile I: 0 to 2 points, n=15; Quartile II: 3 to 4 points, n=20; Quartile III: 5 to 6 points, n=23; Quartile IV: 7 to 10 points, n=9). Two activity monitors (DynaPort (R) and SenseWear (R)) were used to evaluate the level of physical activity in daily life. The Kruskal-Wallis test (Dunns's post-hoc test), the Mann-Whitney test and the Spearman Correlation Coefficient were used for statistical analysis. Results: There were modest correlation between the BODE index and the time spent walking per day, the total daily energy expenditure and the time spent in moderate and vigorous activities per day (-0.32 <= r <=- 0.47; p <= 0.01 for all variables). When comparing the pooled quartiles I+II with III+IV, there were significant difference between the time spent walking per day, the total daily energy expenditure and the time spent in moderate activities per day (p <= 0.05). Conclusion: The level of physical activity in daily life has a modest correlation with the classification of COPD severity assessed by the BODE index, reflecting only differences between patients with classified as mild-moderate and severe-very severe COPD.

Efeitos agudos do tabagismo sobre a modulação autonômica: análise por meio do plot de poincaré

FUNDAMENTO: O tabagismo altera a função autonômica. OBJETIVO: Investigar os efeitos agudos do tabagismo sobre a modulação autonômica e a recuperação dos índices de variabilidade de frequência cardíaca (VFC) pós-fumo, por meio do plot de Poincaré e índices lineares. MÉTODOS: Foram avaliados 25 fumantes jovens, os quais tiveram a frequência cardíaca analisada, batimento a batimento, na posição sentada, após 8 horas de abstinência, por 30 minutos em repouso, 20 minutos durante o fumo e 30 minutos pós-fumo. Análise de variância para medidas repetidas, seguido do teste de Tukey, ou teste de Friedman seguido do teste de Dunn foram aplicados dependendo da normalidade dos dados, com p < 0,05. RESULTADOS: Durante o fumo, houve redução dos índices SD1 (23,4 ± 9,2 vs 13,8 ± 4,8), razão SD1/SD2 (0,31 ± 0,08 vs 0,2 ± 0,04), RMSSD (32,7 ± 13 vs 19,1 ± 6,8), SDNN (47,6 ± 14,8 vs 35,5 ± 8,4), HFnu (32,5 ± 11,6 vs 19 ± 8,1) e do intervalo RR (816,8 ± 89 vs 696,5 ± 76,3) em relação ao repouso, enquanto que aumentos do índice LFnu (67,5 ± 11,6 vs 81 ± 8,1) e da razão LF/HF (2,6 ± 1,7 vs 5,4 ± 3,1) foram observados. A análise visual do plot mostrou menor dispersão dos intervalos RR durante o fumo. Com exceção da razão SD1/SD2, os demais índices apresentaram recuperação dos valores, 30 minutos após o tabagismo. CONCLUSÃO: O tabagismo produziu agudamente modificações no controle autonômico, caracterizadas por ativação simpática e retirada vagal, com recuperação 30 minutos após o fumo.