On the impossibility of fair risk allocation

Measuring and allocating risk properly are crucial for performance evaluation and internal capital allocation of portfolios held by banks, insurance companies, investment funds and other entities subject to financial risk. We show that by using coherent measures of risk it is impossible to allocate risk satisfying simultaneously the natural requirements of Core Compatibility, Equal Treatment Property and Strong Monotonicity. To obtain the result we characterize the Shapley value on the class of totally balanced games and also on the class of exact games.

Properties of risk capital allocation methods: Core Compatibility, Equal Treatment Property and Strong Monotonicity

In finance risk capital allocation raises important questions both from theoretical and practical points of view. How to share risk of a portfolio among its subportfolios? How to reserve capital in order to hedge existing risk and how to assign this to different business units? We use an axiomatic approach to examine risk capital allocation, that is we call for fundamental properties of the methods. Our starting point is Csóka and Pintér (2011) who show by generalizing Young (1985)'s axiomatization of the Shapley value that the requirements of Core Compatibility, Equal Treatment Property and Strong Monotonicity are irreconcilable given that risk is quantified by a coherent measure of risk. In this paper we look at these requirements using analytic and simulations tools. We examine allocation methods used in practice and also ones which are theoretically interesting. Our main result is that the problem raised by Csóka and Pintér (2011) is indeed relevant in practical applications, that is it is not only a theoretical problem. We also believe that through the characterizations of the examined methods our paper can serve as a useful guide for practitioners.

A Note on the Social versus Private Value of Suits when Care is Bilateral

This paper re-examines the social versus private value of lawsuits when both injurers and victims can take care. The basic conclusions of that literature remain valid in this context: the private and social values generally differ, and there is no necessary relationship between them, meaning that there may be either too many or too few suits. Introducing the possibility of victim care does, however, alter the calculation of the deterrent effect of lawsuits. In particular, because allowing suits tends to reduce the incentives for victims to invest in precaution, the social value of prohibiting suits increases in direct relation to the productivity of victim care in lowering accident risk.

Assessment of groups in a network organization based on the Shapley group value.

The focus of this paper is the assessment of groups of agents or units in a network organization. Given a social network, the relations between agents are modeled by means of a graph, and its functionality will be codified by means of a cooperative game. Building on previous work of Gomez et al. (2003) for the individual case, we propose a Myerson group value to evaluate the ability of each group of agents inside the social network to achieve the organization's goals. We analyze this centrality measure, and in particular we offer several decompositions that facilitate obtaining a precise interpretation of it.

Optical Quality in Eyes Implanted With Aspheric and Spherical Intraocular Lenses Assessed by NIDEK OPD-Scan: A Randomized, Bilateral, Clinical Trial

PURPOSE: To determine whether implantation of an intraocular lens (IOL) with an aspheric surface (Akreos AO, Bausch & Lomb Inc) results in reduced ocular aberrations (spherical aberration) and improved Strehl ratio and modulation transfer function (MTF) after cataract surgery. METHODS: In an intraindividual, randomized, double-masked, prospective study of 50 eyes (25 patients) with bilateral cataract, an IOL with modified anterior and posterior surfaces (Akreos AO) was implanted in one eye and a biconvex IOL with spherical surfaces (Akreos Fit, Bausch & Lomb Inc) implanted in the fellow eye. Ocular aberrations, Strehl ratio, and MTF curve with 4.5-, 5.0-, and 6.0-mm pupils were measured with a NIDEK OPD-Scan dynamic retinoscopy aberrometer 3 months after surgery. Uncorrected and corrected distance visual acuity (UDVA and CDVA, respectively) were also measured. RESULTS: No statistically significant difference was noted between eyes in postoperative UDVA and CDVA at 1 month. At 3 months, the Akreos AO IOL group obtained statistically significant lower values of higher order and spherical aberrations with 4.5-, 5.0-, and 6.0-mm pupil diameters than the Akreos Fit IOL group (P<.05). The value of Strehl ratio was statistically significantly higher in eyes with the Akreos AO IOL for 4.5- and 6.0-mm pupils (P<.05). The MTF curve was better in the Akreos AO IOL group in 4.5-, 5.0-, and 6.0-mm pupils (P<.05). CONCLUSIONS: The aspheric Akreos AO IOL induced significantly less spherical aberration than the Akreos Fit IOL for 4.5-, 5.0-, and 6.0-mm pupils. Modulation transfer function and Strehl ratio were also better in eyes implanted with the Akreos AO IOL than the Akreos Fit. [J Refract Surg. 2011;27(4):287-292.] doi:10.3928/1081597X-20100714-01

Effects of electrotactile vestibular substitution on rehabilitation of patients with bilateral vestibular loss

The present study evaluated the effectiveness of electrotactile tongue biofeedback (BrainPort (R)) as a sensory substitute for the vestibular apparatus in patients with bilateral vestibular loss (BVL) who did not have a good response to conventional vestibular rehabilitation (VR). Seven patients with BVL were trained to use the device. Stimulation on the surface of the tongue was created by a dynamic pattern of electrical pulses and the patient was able to adjust the intensity of stimulation and spatially centralize the stimulus on the electrode array. Patients were directed to continuously adjust head orientation and to maintain the stimulus pattern at the center of the array. Postural tasks that present progressive difficulties were given during the use of the device. Pre- and post-treatment distribution of the sensory organization test (SOT) composite score showed an average value of 38.3 +/- 8.7 and 59.9 +/- 11.3, respectively, indicating a statistically significant improvement (p = 0.01). Electrotactile tongue biofeedback significantly improved the postural control of the study group, even if they had not improved with conventional VR. The electrotactile tongue biofeedback system was able to supply additional information about head position with respect to gravitational vertical orientation in the absence of vestibular input, improving postural control. Patients with BVL can integrate electrotactile information in their postural control in order to improve stability after conventional VR. These results were obtained and verified not only by the subjective questionnaire but also by the SOT composite score. The limitations of the study are the small sample size and short duration of the follow-up. The current findings show that the sensory substitution mediated by electrotactile tongue biofeedback may contribute to the improved balance experienced by these patients compared to VR. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of clinical response after renal angioplasty: respective value of renal Doppler sonography and scintigraphy.

OBJECTIVE: The goal of our study was to compare Doppler sonography and renal scintigraphy as tools for predicting the therapeutic response in patients after undergoing renal angioplasty. SUBJECTS AND METHODS. Seventy-four hypertensive patients underwent clinical examination, Doppler sonography, and renal scintigraphy before and after receiving captopril in preparation for renal revascularization. The patients were evaluated for the status of hypertension 3 months after the procedure. The predictive values of the findings of clinical examination, Doppler sonography, renal scintigraphy, and angiography were assessed. RESULTS: For prediction of a favorable therapeutic outcome, abnormal results from renal scintigraphy before and after captopril administration had a sensitivity of 58% and specificity of 57%. Findings of Doppler sonography had a sensitivity of 68% and specificity of 50% before captopril administration and a sensitivity of 81% and specificity of 32% after captopril administration. Significant predictors of a cure or reduction of hypertension after revascularization were low unilateral (p = 0.014) and bilateral resistive (p = 0.016) indexes on Doppler sonography before (p = 0.009) and after (p = 0.028) captopril administration. On multivariate analysis, the best predictors were a unilateral resistive index of less than 0.65 (odds ratio [OR] = 3.7) after captopril administration and a kidney longer than 93 mm (OR = 7.8). The two best combined criteria to predict the favorable therapeutic outcome were a bilateral resistive index of less than 0.75 before captopril administration combined with a unilateral resistive index of less than 0.70 after captopril administration (sensitivity, 76%; specificity, 58%) or a bilateral resistive index of less than 0.75 before captopril administration and a kidney measuring longer than 90 mm (sensitivity, 81%; specificity, 50%). CONCLUSION: Measurements of kidney length and unilateral and bilateral resistive indexes before and after captopril administration were useful in predicting the outcome after renal angioplasty. Renal scintigraphy had no significant predictive value.

The manufacturing industry in Brazil in the era of global value chains

This article presents a comprehensive and detailed overview of the international trade performance of the manufacturing industry in Brazil over the last decades, emphasizing its participation in Global Value Chains. It uses information from recent available global inputoutput tables such as WIOD (World Input-output database) and TIVA (Trade in Value Added, OECD) as well as complementary information from the GTAP 8 (Global Trade Analysis Project) database. The calculation of a broad set of value added type indicators allows a precise contextualization of the ongoing structural changes in the Brazilian industry, highlighting the relative isolation of its manufacturing sector from the most relevant international supply chains. This article also proposes a public policy discussion, presenting two case studies: the first one related to trade facilitation and the second one to preferential trade agreements. The main conclusions are twofold: first, the reduction of time delays at customs in Brazil may significantly improve the trade performance of its manufacturing industry, specially for the more capital intensive sectors which are generally the ones with greater potential to connection to global value chains; second, the extension of the concept of a “preferential trade partner” to the context of the global unbundling of production may pave the way to future trade policy in Brazil, particularly in the mapping of those partners whose bilateral trade relations with Brazil should receive greater priority by policy makers.

The manufacturing industry in Brazil in the era of global value chains

This article presents a comprehensive and detailed overview of the international trade performance of the manufacturing industry in Brazil over the last decades, emphasizing its participation in Global Value Chains. It uses information from recent available global inputoutput tables such as WIOD (World Input-output database) and TIVA (Trade in Value Added, OECD) as well as complementary information from the GTAP 8 (Global Trade Analysis Project) database. The calculation of a broad set of value added type indicators allows a precise contextualization of the ongoing structural changes in the Brazilian industry, highlighting the relative isolation of its manufacturing sector from the most relevant international supply chains. This article also proposes a public policy discussion, presenting two case studies: the first one related to trade facilitation and the second one to preferential trade agreements. The main conclusions are twofold: first, the reduction of time delays at customs in Brazil may significantly improve the trade performance of its manufacturing industry, specially for the more capital intensive sectors which are generally the ones with greater potential to connection to global value chains; second, the extension of the concept of a “preferential trade partner” to the context of the global unbundling of production may pave the way to future trade policy in Brazil, particularly in the mapping of those partners whose bilateral trade relations with Brazil should receive greater priority by policy makers

Assessing Pathogenicity for Novel Mutation/Sequence Variants: The Value of Healthy Older Individuals

Improvement in DNA technology is increasingly revealing unexpected/unknown mutations in healthy persons and generating anxiety due to their still unknown health consequences. We report a 44-year-old healthy father of a 10-year-old daughter with bilateral coloboma and hearing loss, but without muscle weakness, in whom a whole-genome CGH revealed a deletion of exons 38-44 in the dystrophin gene. This mutation was inherited from her asymptomatic father, who was further clinically and molecularly evaluated for prognosis and genetic counseling (GC). This deletion was never identified by us in 982 Duchenne/Becker patients. To assess whether the present case represents a rare case of non-penetrance, and aiming to obtain more information for prognosis and GC, we suggested that healthy older relatives submit their DNA for analysis, to which several complied. Mutation analysis revealed that his mother, brother, and 56-year-old maternal uncle also carry the 38-44 deletion, suggesting it an unlikely cause of muscle weakness. Genome sequencing will disclose mutations and variants whose health impact are still unknown, raising important problems in interpreting results, defining prognosis, and discussing GC. We suggest that, in addition to family history, keeping the DNA of older relatives could be very informative, in particular for those interested in having their genome sequenced.

Comparison of two scoring systems for evaluation of treatment outcome in patients with complete bilateral cleft lip and palate

Objective : To compare two scoring systems: the Huddart/Bodenham system (HB system) and the Bauru-BCLP yardstick (BCLP yardstick), which classify treatment outcome in terms of dental arch relationships in patients with complete bilateral cleft lip and palate (CBCLP). The predictive value of these scoring systems for treatment outcome was also evaluated. Design : Retrospective longitudinal study. Patients : Dental arch relationships of 43 CBCLP patients were evaluated at 6, 9, and 12 years. Setting : Treatment outcome in BCLP patients using two scoring systems. Main Outcome Measures : For each age group, the HB scores were correlated with the BCLP yardstick scores using Spearman's correlation coefficient. The predictive value of the two scoring systems was evaluated by backward regression analysis. Results : Intraobserver Kappa values for the BCLP yardstick scoring for the two observers were .506 and .627, respectively, and the interobserver reliability ranged from .427 and .581. The intraobserver reliability for the HB system ranged from .92 to .97 and the interobserver reliability from .88 to .96. The BCLP yardstick scores of 6 and 9 years together were predictors for the outcome at 12 years (explained variance 41.3%). Adding the incisor and lateral HB scores in the regression model increased the explained variance to 67%. Conclusions : The BCLP yardstick and the HB system are reliable scoring systems for evaluation of dental arch relationships of CBCLP patients. The HB system categorizes treatment outcome into similar categories as the BCLP yardstick. In case a more sensitive measure of treatment outcome is needed, selectively both scoring systems should be used.

Limited value of cyclosporine A for the treatment of patients with uveitis associated with juvenile idiopathic arthritis

AIMS: Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) is often associated with severe chronic anterior uveitis (CAU), and immunosuppressive therapy may be required. In this study, the value of cyclosporine A (CsA) as monotherapy or as combination therapy for treating uveitis was studied in a large cohort of JIA children. METHODS: Multicentre retrospective study including 82 JIA children (girls n=60) suffering from unilateral or bilateral (n=55) CAU. The indication for CsA was active uveitis, although patients were on topical or systemic corticosteroids, MTX, or other immunosuppressive drugs. RESULTS: Inactivity of uveitis during the entire treatment period (mean 3.9 years) was obtained with CsA monotherapy in 6 of 25 (24%) patients, but more often when CsA was combined with the immunosuppressives (35/72 patients; 48.6%, P=0.037), or MTX (18/37 patients, 48.6%, P=0.065), which had already been given. With CsA (mean dosage 2.9 mg/kg), systemic immunosuppressive drugs and steroids could be reduced by >or=50% (n=19) or topical steroids reduced to value as a second-line immunosuppressive drug for the treatment of JIA-associated CAU. The efficacy was better as the combination therapy in patients not responding to other immunosuppressives (eg, MTX) than the systemic monotherapy.

Tracing CO2 emissions in global value chains

This paper integrates two lines of research into a unified conceptual framework: trade in global value chains and embodied emissions. This allows both value added and emissions to be systematically traced at the country, sector, and bilateral levels through various production network routes. By combining value-added and emissions accounting in a consistent way, the potential environmental cost (amount of emissions per unit of value added) along global value chains can be estimated. Using this unified accounting method, we trace CO2 emissions in the global production and trade network among 41 economies in 35 sectors from 1995 to 2009, basing our calculations on the World Input–Output Database, and show how they help us to better understand the impact of cross-country production sharing on the environment.

Wave impedance selection for passivity-based bilateral teleoperation

When a task must be executed in a remote or dangerous environment, teleoperation systems may be employed to extend the influence of the human operator. In the case of manipulation tasks, haptic feedback of the forces experienced by the remote (slave) system is often highly useful in improving an operator's ability to perform effectively. In many of these cases (especially teleoperation over the internet and ground-to-space teleoperation), substantial communication latency exists in the control loop and has the strong tendency to cause instability of the system. The first viable solution to this problem in the literature was based on a scattering/wave transformation from transmission line theory. This wave transformation requires the designer to select a wave impedance parameter appropriate to the teleoperation system. It is widely recognized that a small value of wave impedance is well suited to free motion and a large value is preferable for contact tasks. Beyond this basic observation, however, very little guidance exists in the literature regarding the selection of an appropriate value. Moreover, prior research on impedance selection generally fails to account for the fact that in any realistic contact task there will simultaneously exist contact considerations (perpendicular to the surface of contact) and quasi-free-motion considerations (parallel to the surface of contact). The primary contribution of the present work is to introduce an approximate linearized optimum for the choice of wave impedance and to apply this quasi-optimal choice to the Cartesian reality of such a contact task, in which it cannot be expected that a given joint will be either perfectly normal to or perfectly parallel to the motion constraint. The proposed scheme selects a wave impedance matrix that is appropriate to the conditions encountered by the manipulator. This choice may be implemented as a static wave impedance value or as a time-varying choice updated according to the instantaneous conditions encountered. A Lyapunov-like analysis is presented demonstrating that time variation in wave impedance will not violate the passivity of the system. Experimental trials, both in simulation and on a haptic feedback device, are presented validating the technique. Consideration is also given to the case of an uncertain environment, in which an a priori impedance choice may not be possible.

Sino-African State Trading in Services: Added-Value through Angola-Model loaning, GATS commitments or FTAs?

Paper presented by Charlotte Sieber-Gasser at the 5th Annual TRAPCA Conference, Arusha (Tanzania), 25-26 November 2010. Despite the increasing volume of trade between China and African countries, not one single conventional free trade agreement (FTA) or economic partnership agreement (EPA) has yet been signed between an African country and China. Initially, Sino-African trade relations were to a very large extent centred on investments secured through bilateral investment agreements (BITs). The more recent Chinese investments on the African continent, however, are more informally based on FDI contracts with the state at the receiving end and a government-owned private company as the investor, or loosely attached to loans commonly known under term ‘the Angola-Model’. This rather unusual basis for economic integration and development assistance, outside the trodden path of free trade agreements and ODA, requires further analysis in order to understand how the current legal framework between China and the African continent impacts economic development and national sovereignty, and what kind of distributive consequences it may have.