Essays in behavioral economics

In this work we conduct an experimental analysis on different behavioral models of economic choice. In particular, we analyze the role of overconfidence in shaping the beliefs of economics agents about the future path of their consumption or investment. We discuss the relevance of this bias in expectation formation both from a static and from a dynamic point of view and we analyze the effect of possible interventions aimed to achieve some policy goals. The methodology we follow is both theoretical and empirical. In particular, we make large use of controlled economic field experiments in order to test the predictions of the theoretical models we propose. In the second part of the thesis we discuss the role of cognition and personality in affecting economic preferences and choices. In this way we make a bridge between established psychological research and novel findings in economics. Finally, we conduct a field study on the role of incentives on education. We design different incentive schemes and we test, on randomized groups of students, their effectiveness in improving academic performance.

Distinct microRNA Expression Profile in Prostate Cancer Patients with Early Clinical Failure and the Impact of let-7 as Prognostic Marker in High-Risk Prostate Cancer

Background The identification of additional prognostic markers to improve risk stratification and to avoid overtreatment is one of the most urgent clinical needs in prostate cancer (PCa). MicroRNAs, being important regulators of gene expression, are promising biomarkers in various cancer entities, though the impact as prognostic predictors in PCa is poorly understood. The aim of this study was to identify specific miRNAs as potential prognostic markers in high-risk PCa and to validate their clinical impact. Methodology and Principal Findings We performed miRNA-microarray analysis in a high-risk PCa study group selected by their clinical outcome (clinical progression free survival (CPFS) vs. clinical failure (CF)). We identified seven candidate miRNAs (let-7a/b/c, miR-515-3p/5p, -181b, -146b, and -361) that showed differential expression between both groups. Further qRT-PCR analysis revealed down-regulation of members of the let-7 family in the majority of a large, well-characterized high-risk PCa cohort (n = 98). Expression of let-7a/b/and -c was correlated to clinical outcome parameters of this group. While let-7a showed no association or correlation with clinical relevant data, let-7b and let-7c were associated with CF in PCa patients and functioned partially as independent prognostic marker. Validation of the data using an independent high-risk study cohort revealed that let-7b, but not let-7c, has impact as an independent prognostic marker for BCR and CF. Furthermore, we identified HMGA1, a non-histone protein, as a new target of let-7b and found correlation of let-7b down-regulation with HMGA1 over-expression in primary PCa samples. Conclusion Our findings define a distinct miRNA expression profile in PCa cases with early CF and identified let-7b as prognostic biomarker in high-risk PCa. This study highlights the importance of let-7b as tumor suppressor miRNA in high-risk PCa and presents a basis to improve individual therapy for high-risk PCa patients.

Increased levels of choline metabolites are an early marker of docetaxel treatment response in BRCA1-mutated mouse mammary tumors: an assessment by ex vivo proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy.

BACKGROUND Docetaxel is one of the most frequently used drugs to treat breast cancer. However, resistance or incomplete response to docetaxel is a major challenge. The aim of this study was to utilize MR metabolomics to identify potential biomarkers of docetaxel resistance in a mouse model for BRCA1-mutated breast cancer. METHODOLOGY High resolution magic angle spinning (HRMAS) (1)H MR spectroscopy was performed on tissue samples obtained from docetaxel-sensitive or -resistant BRCA1-mutated mammary tumors in mice. Measurements were performed on samples obtained before treatment and at 1-2, 3-5 and 6-7 days after a 25 mg/kg dose of docetaxel. The MR spectra were analyzed by multivariate analysis, followed by analysis of the signals of individual compounds by peak fitting and integration with normalization to the integral of the creatine signal and of all signals between 2.9 and 3.6 ppm. RESULTS The HRMAS spectra revealed significant metabolic differences between sensitive and resistant tissue samples. In particular choline metabolites were higher in resistant tumors by more than 50% with respect to creatine and by more than 30% with respect to all signals between 2.9 and 3.6 ppm. Shortly after treatment (1-2 days) the normalized choline metabolite levels were significantly increased by more than 30% in the sensitive group coinciding with the time of highest apoptotic activity induced by docetaxel. Thereafter, choline metabolites in these tumors returned towards pre-treatment levels. No change in choline compounds was observed in the resistant tumors over the whole time of investigation. CONCLUSIONS Relative tissue concentrations of choline compounds are higher in docetaxel resistant than in sensitive BRCA1-mutated mouse mammary tumors, but in the first days after docetaxel treatment only in the sensitive tumors an increase of these compounds is observed. Thus both pre- and post-treatment tissue levels of choline compounds have potential to predict response to docetaxel treatment.

Sociodemographic, behavioral and genetic determinants of allostatic load in a Swiss population-based study.

Allostatic load (AL) is a marker of physiological dysregulation which reflects exposure to chronic stress. High AL has been related to poorer health outcomes including mortality. We examine here the association of socioeconomic and lifestyle factors with AL. Additionally, we investigate the extent to which AL is genetically determined. We included 803 participants (52% women, mean age 48±16years) from a population and family-based Swiss study. We computed an AL index aggregating 14 markers from cardiovascular, metabolic, lipidic, oxidative, hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal and inflammatory homeostatic axes. Education and occupational position were used as indicators of socioeconomic status. Marital status, stress, alcohol intake, smoking, dietary patterns and physical activity were considered as lifestyle factors. Heritability of AL was estimated by maximum likelihood. Women with a low occupational position had higher AL (low vs. high OR=3.99, 95%CI [1.22;13.05]), while the opposite was observed for men (middle vs. high OR=0.48, 95%CI [0.23;0.99]). Education tended to be inversely associated with AL in both sexes(low vs. high OR=3.54, 95%CI [1.69;7.4]/OR=1.59, 95%CI [0.88;2.90] in women/men). Heavy drinking men as well as women abstaining from alcohol had higher AL than moderate drinkers. Physical activity was protective against AL while high salt intake was related to increased AL risk. The heritability of AL was estimated to be 29.5% ±7.9%. Our results suggest that generalized physiological dysregulation, as measured by AL, is determined by both environmental and genetic factors. The genetic contribution to AL remains modest when compared to the environmental component, which explains approximately 70% of the phenotypic variance.

A GENETIC MARKER STUDY OF NON - INSULIN DEPENDENT DIABETICS IN THE MEXICAN-AMERICAN COMMUNITY FROM STARR COUNTY, TEXAS (PLASMA GLUCOSE, HEMOGLOBIN ANALYSIS)

Diabetes mellitus occurs in two forms, insulin-dependent (IDDM, formerly called juvenile type) and non-insulin dependent (NIDDM, formerly called adult type). Prevalence figures from around the world for NIDDM, show that all societies and all races are affected; although uncommon in some populations (.4%), it is common (10%) or very common (40%) in others (Tables 1 and 2).^ In Mexican-Americans in particular, the prevalence rates (7-10%) are intermediate to those in Caucasians (1-2%) and Amerindians (35%). Information about the distribution of the disease and identification of high risk groups for developing glucose intolerance or its vascular manifestations by the study of genetic markers will help to clarify and solve some of the problems from the public health and the genetic point of view.^ This research was designed to examine two general areas in relation to NIDDM. The first aims to determine the prevalence of polymorphic genetic markers in two groups distinguished by the presence or absence of diabetes and to observe if there are any genetic marker-disease association (univariate analysis using two by two tables and logistic regression to study the individual and joint effects of the different variables). The second deals with the effect of genetic differences on the variation in fasting plasma glucose and percent glycosylated hemoglobin (HbAl) (analysis of Covariance for each marker, using age and sex as covariates).^ The results from the first analysis were not statistically significant at the corrected p value of 0.003 given the number of tests that were performed. From the analysis of covariance of all the markers studied, only Duffy and Phosphoglucomutase were statistically significant but poor predictors, given that the amount they explain in terms of variation in glycosylated hemoglobin is very small.^ Trying to determine the polygenic component of chronic disease is not an easy task. This study confirms the fact that a larger and random or representative sample is needed to be able to detect differences in the prevalence of a marker for association studies and in the genetic contribution to the variation in glucose and glycosylated hemoglobin. The importance that ethnic homogeneity in the groups studied and standardization in the methodology will have on the results has been stressed. ^

Methodology based on registration techniques for representing subjects and their deformations acquired from general purpose 3D sensors

In this thesis a methodology for representing 3D subjects and their deformations in adverse situations is studied. The study is focused in providing methods based on registration techniques to improve the data in situations where the sensor is working in the limit of its sensitivity. In order to do this, it is proposed two methods to overcome the problems which can difficult the process in these conditions. First a rigid registration based on model registration is presented, where the model of 3D planar markers is used. This model is estimated using a proposed method which improves its quality by taking into account prior knowledge of the marker. To study the deformations, it is proposed a framework to combine multiple spaces in a non-rigid registration technique. This proposal improves the quality of the alignment with a more robust matching process that makes use of all available input data. Moreover, this framework allows the registration of multiple spaces simultaneously providing a more general technique. Concretely, it is instantiated using colour and location in the matching process for 3D location registration.

A novel dried blood spot-LCMS method for the quantification of methotrexate polyglutamates as a potential marker for methotrexate use in children

Objective: Development and validation of a selective and sensitive LCMS method for the determination of methotrexate polyglutamates in dried blood spots (DBS). Methods: DBS samples [spiked or patient samples] were prepared by applying blood to Guthrie cards which was then dried at room temperature. The method utilised 6-mm disks punched from the DBS samples (equivalent to approximately 12 μl of whole blood). The simple treatment procedure was based on protein precipitation using perchloric acid followed by solid phase extraction using MAX cartridges. The extracted sample was chromatographed using a reversed phase system involving an Atlantis T3-C18 column (3 μm, 2.1x150 mm) preceded by Atlantis guard column of matching chemistry. Analytes were subjected to LCMS analysis using positive electrospray ionization. Key Results: The method was linear over the range 5-400 nmol/L. The limits of detection and quantification were 1.6 and 5 nmol/L for individual polyglutamates and 1.5 and 4.5 nmol/L for total polyglutamates, respectively. The method has been applied successfully to the determination of DBS finger-prick samples from 47 paediatric patients and results confirmed with concentrations measured in matched RBC samples using conventional HPLC-UV technique. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance: The methodology has a potential for application in a range of clinical studies (e.g. pharmacokinetic evaluations or medication adherence assessment) since it is minimally invasive and easy to perform, potentially allowing parents to take blood samples at home. The feasibility of using DBS sampling can be of major value for future clinical trials or clinical care in paediatric rheumatology. © 2014 Hawwa et al.

Research on the influence of behavioral forces that motivate trader behavior and sentiment: A prospect theory exegesis

This study focuses on empirical investigations and seeks implications by utilizing three different methodologies to test various aspects of trader behavior. The first methodology utilizes Prospect Theory to determine trader behavior during periods of extreme wealth contracting periods. Secondly, a threshold model to examine the sentiment variable is formulated and thirdly a study is made of the contagion effect and trader behavior. ^ The connection between consumers' sense of financial well-being or sentiment and stock market performance has been studied at length. However, without data on actual versus experimental performance, implications based on this relationship are meaningless. The empirical agenda included examining a proprietary file of daily trader activities over a five-year period. Overall, during periods of extreme wealth altering conditions, traders "satisfice" rather than choose the "best" alternative. A trader's degree of loss aversion depends on his/her prior investment performance. A model that explains the behavior of traders during periods of turmoil is developed. Prospect Theory and the data file influenced the design of the model. ^ Additional research included testing a model that permitted the data to signal the crisis through a threshold model. The third empirical study sought to investigate the existence of contagion caused by declining global wealth effects using evidence from the mining industry in Canada. Contagion, where a financial crisis begins locally and subsequently spreads elsewhere, has been studied in terms of correlations among similar regions. The results provide support for Prospect Theory in two out of the three empirical studies. ^ The dissertation emphasizes the need for specifying precise, testable models of investors' expectations by providing tools to identify paradoxical behavior patterns. True enhancements in this field must include empirical research utilizing reliable data sources to mitigate data mining problems and allow researchers to distinguish between expectations-based and risk-based explanations of behavior. Through this type of research, it may be possible to systematically exploit "irrational" market behavior. ^

Mediational effects in cognitive behavioral treatment for anxiety disorders in children and adolescents

The current study examined whether variables that have been found to influence treatment outcome serve as mediators of a child and adolescent cognitive behavioral treatment (CBT) anxiety program at multiple time points throughout the intervention. The study also examined mediating variables measured at multiple time points during treatment to determine the time lags necessary for changes in the mediator variable to translate into changes on treatment gains. Participants were 168 youth (ages 6 to 16 years; 54% males) and their mothers who presented to the Child Anxiety and Phobia Program (CAPP) at Florida International University (FIU). Overall, results indicate that the mediators at multiple time points influenced youth anxiety in a fluctuating manner, such that a decrease in skills at one given session caused changes in youth anxiety at a later session. This dynamic between the mediator and outcome may be reflective of the process of therapeutic change and suggests that skills gained from session to session took time to exert their effect on youth anxiety. The methodology employed helps to elucidate how variables mediate treatment outcome in youth anxiety disorders.

Research on the influence of behavioral forces that motivate trader behavior and sentiment- a prospect theory exegesis

This study focuses on empirical investigations and seeks implications by utilizing three different methodologies to test various aspects of trader behavior. The first methodology utilizes Prospect Theory to determine trader behavior during periods of extreme wealth contracting periods. Secondly, a threshold model to examine the sentiment variable is formulated and thirdly a study is made of the contagion effect and trader behavior. The connection between consumers' sense of financial well-being or sentiment and stock market performance has been studied at length. However, without data on actual versus experimental performance, implications based on this relationship are meaningless. The empirical agenda included examining a proprietary file of daily trader activities over a five-year period. Overall, during periods of extreme wealth altering conditions, traders "satisfice" rather than choose the "best" alternative. A trader's degree of loss aversion depends on his/her prior investment performance. A model that explains the behavior of traders during periods of turmoil is developed. Prospect Theory and the data file influenced the design of the model. Additional research included testing a model that permitted the data to signal the crisis through a threshold model. The third empirical study sought to investigate the existence of contagion caused by declining global wealth effects using evidence from the mining industry in Canada. Contagion, where a financial crisis begins locally and subsequently spreads elsewhere, has been studied in terms of correlations among similar regions. The results provide support for Prospect Theory in two out of the three empirical studies. The dissertation emphasizes the need for specifying precise, testable models of investors' expectations by providing tools to identify paradoxical behavior patterns. True enhancements in this field must include empirical research utilizing reliable data sources to mitigate data mining problems and allow researchers to distinguish between expectations-based and risk-based explanations of behavior. Through this type of research, it may be possible to systematically exploit "irrational" market behavior.

From theory-inspired to theory-based interventions : A protocol for developing and testing a methodology for linking behaviour change techniques to theoretical mechanisms of action

This research is funded by UK Medical Research Council grant number MR/L011115/1

From Theory-Inspired to Theory-Based Interventions : A Protocol for Developing and Testing a Methodology for Linking Behaviour Change Techniques to Theoretical Mechanisms of Action

This research is funded by UK Medical Research Council grant number MR/L011115/1. We would like to thank the 105 experts in behaviour change who have committed their time and offered their expertise for study 2 of this research. We are also very grateful to all those who sent us peer-reviewed behaviour change intervention descriptions for study 1. Finally, we would like thank Dr. Emma Beard and Dr. Dan Dediu for their statistical input and to all the researchers, particularly Holly Walton, who have assisted in the coding of papers for study 1.

Iowa Seat Belt Use Survey 2012 Data Collection Methodology Report September 13, 2012

In an effort to achieve greater consistency and comparability in state‐wide seat belt use reporting, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued new requirements in 2011 for observing and reporting future seat belt use. The requirements included the involvement of a qualified statistician in the sampling and weighting portions of the process as well as a variety of operational details. The Iowa Governor’s Traffic Safety Bureau contracted with Iowa State University’s Survey & Behavioral Research Services (SBRS) in 2011 to develop the study design and data collection plan for the State of Iowa annual survey that would meet the new requirements of the NHTSA. A seat belt survey plan for Iowa was developed by SBRS with statistical expertise provided by Zhengyuan Zhu, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Statistics at Iowa State University. The Iowa plan was submitted to NHTSA in December of 2011 and official approval was received on March 19, 2012.

The need for a marker predicting benefit following cardiovascular disease risk reduction treatment

Developing a robust method to study characteristics of vascular flow using ultrasound may be useful to assess endothelial function and vasodilatation. There are four stages in this proposal. 1.The first stage is to standardise and validate the methodology to enable computational risk flow data and other flow characteristics to be used clinically. (Current Study). Further development of fluid modelling methods will enable particulate haemodynamics to be investigated, and incorporate detailed endothelial structure together with cellular pathways. 2. This should be followed up by studies in different patient groups investigating the association between the derived values and estimated risk (using other methods such as Framingham risk score). 3. Then, associated with underlying cardiovascular risk, prospective studies would be made to establish whether computational flow dynamic data can predict outcome. If successful it could prove to be a very useful marker of benefit following treatment in a clinical setting.

Iowa Seat Belt Use Survey 2013 Data Collection Methodology Report, September 26, 2013

In an effort to achieve greater consistency and comparability in state-wide seat belt use reporting, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued new requirements in 2011 for observing and reporting future seat belt use. The requirements included the involvement of a qualified statistician in the sampling and weighting portions of the process as well as a variety of operational details. The Iowa Governor’s Traffic Safety Bureau contracted with Iowa State University’s Survey & Behavioral Research Services (SBRS) in 2011 to develop the study design and data collection plan for the State of Iowa annual survey that would meet the new requirements of the NHTSA. A seat belt survey plan for Iowa was developed by SBRS with statistical expertise provided by Zhengyuan Zhu, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Statistics at Iowa State University and was approved by NHTSA on March 19, 2012.