A Bayesian Model for Learning Using Flashcards

Report published in the Proceedings of the National Conference on "Education and Research in the Information Society", Plovdiv, May, 2015

Stopping rules in Bayesian adaptive threshold estimation

Threshold estimation with sequential procedures is justifiable on the surmise that the index used in the so-called dynamic stopping rule has diagnostic value for identifying when an accurate estimate has been obtained. The performance of five types of Bayesian sequential procedure was compared here to that of an analogous fixed-length procedure. Indices for use in sequential procedures were: (1) the width of the Bayesian probability interval, (2) the posterior standard deviation, (3) the absolute change, (4) the average change, and (5) the number of sign fluctuations. A simulation study was carried out to evaluate which index renders estimates with less bias and smaller standard error at lower cost (i.e. lower average number of trials to completion), in both yes–no and two-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) tasks. We also considered the effect of the form and parameters of the psychometric function and its similarity with themodel function assumed in the procedure. Our results show that sequential procedures do not outperform fixed-length procedures in yes–no tasks. However, in 2AFC tasks, sequential procedures not based on sign fluctuations all yield minimally better estimates than fixed-length procedures, although most of the improvement occurs with short runs that render undependable estimates and the differences vanish when the procedures run for a number of trials (around 70) that ensures dependability. Thus, none of the indices considered here (some of which are widespread) has the diagnostic value that would justify its use. In addition, difficulties of implementation make sequential procedures unfit as alternatives to fixed-length procedures.

Bayesian analysis of a mastitis control plan to investigate the influence of veterinary prior beliefs on clinical interpretation

The fundamental objective for health research is to determine whether changes should be made to clinical decisions. Decisions made by veterinary surgeons in the light of new research evidence are known to be influenced by their prior beliefs, especially their initial opinions about the plausibility of possible results. In this paper, clinical trial results for a bovine mastitis control plan were evaluated within a Bayesian context, to incorporate a community of prior distributions that represented a spectrum of clinical prior beliefs. The aim was to quantify the effect of veterinary surgeons’ initial viewpoints on the interpretation of the trial results. A Bayesian analysis was conducted using Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures. Stochastic models included a financial cost attributed to a change in clinical mastitis following implementation of the control plan. Prior distributions were incorporated that covered a realistic range of possible clinical viewpoints, including scepticism, enthusiasm and uncertainty. Posterior distributions revealed important differences in the financial gain that clinicians with different starting viewpoints would anticipate from the mastitis control plan, given the actual research results. For example, a severe sceptic would ascribe a probability of 0.50 for a return of <£5 per cow in an average herd that implemented the plan, whereas an enthusiast would ascribe this probability for a return of >£20 per cow. Simulations using increased trial sizes indicated that if the original study was four times as large, an initial sceptic would be more convinced about the efficacy of the control plan but would still anticipate less financial return than an initial enthusiast would anticipate after the original study. In conclusion, it is possible to estimate how clinicians’ prior beliefs influence their interpretation of research evidence. Further research on the extent to which different interpretations of evidence result in changes to clinical practice would be worthwhile.

Bayesian Linear Regression for estimation of the Fractal Dimension of the Cerebral Cortex

The cerebral cortex presents self-similarity in a proper interval of spatial scales, a property typical of natural objects exhibiting fractal geometry. Its complexity therefore can be characterized by the value of its fractal dimension (FD). In the computation of this metric, it has usually been employed a frequentist approach to probability, with point estimator methods yielding only the optimal values of the FD. In our study, we aimed at retrieving a more complete evaluation of the FD by utilizing a Bayesian model for the linear regression analysis of the box-counting algorithm. We used T1-weighted MRI data of 86 healthy subjects (age 44.2 ± 17.1 years, mean ± standard deviation, 48% males) in order to gain insights into the confidence of our measure and investigate the relationship between mean Bayesian FD and age. Our approach yielded a stronger and significant (P < .001) correlation between mean Bayesian FD and age as compared to the previous implementation. Thus, our results make us suppose that the Bayesian FD is a more truthful estimation for the fractal dimension of the cerebral cortex compared to the frequentist FD.

Five Years Of Implementation Of Guidelines In Hematology And Transfusion Medicine In Brazil.

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[strategies For Integration Of Health Care Practices And Sanitary Surveillance In The Context Of The Implementation Of Rede Cegonha - A Brazilian Mother And Infant Health Care Network].

Mother and infant mortality has been the scope of analysis throughout the history of public health in Brazil and various strategies to tackle the issue have been proposed to date. The Ministry of Health has been working on this and the Rede Cegonha strategy is the most recent policy in this context. Given the principle of comprehensive health care and the structure of the Unified Health System in care networks, it is necessary to ensure the integration of health care practices, among which are the sanitary surveillance actions (SSA). Considering that the integration of health care practices and SSA can contribute to reduce mother and infant mortality rates, this article is a result of qualitative research that analyzed the integration of these actions in four cities in the State of São Paulo/Brazil: Campinas, Indaiatuba, Jaguariúna and Santa Bárbara D'Oeste. The research was conducted through interviews with SSA and maternal health managers, and the data were evaluated using thematic analysis. The results converge with other studies, identifying the isolation of health care practices and SSA. The insertion of SSA in collectively-managed areas appears to be a potential strategy for health planning and implementation of actions in the context under scrutiny.

[child Protection Network And The Intersector Implementation Of The Circle Of Security As Alternatives To Medication].

To describe the clinical history of a child with aggressive behavior and recurring death-theme speech, and report the experience of the team of authors, who proposed an alternative to medication through the establishment of a protection network and the inter-sector implementation of the circle of security concept. A 5-year-old child has a violent and aggressive behavior at the day-care. The child was diagnosed by the healthcare center with depressive disorder and behavioral disorder, and was medicated with sertraline and risperidone. Side effects were observed, and the medications were discontinued. Despite several actions, such as talks, teamwork, psychological and psychiatric follow-up, the child's behavior remained unchanged. A unique therapeutic project was developed by Universidade Estadual de Campinas' Medical School students in order to establish a connection between the entities responsible for the child's care (daycare center, healthcare center, and family). Thus, the team was able to develop a basic care protection network. The implementation of the inter-sector circle of security, as well as the communication and cooperation among the teams, produced very favorable results in this case. This initiative was shown to be a feasible and effective alternative to the use of medication for this child.

Quality Of Life Of Coronary Artery Disease Patients After The Implementation Of Planning Strategies For Medication Adherence.

to compare the general and specific health-related quality of life (HRQoL) between the Intervention (IG) and Control (CG) groups of coronary artery disease patients after the implementation of Action Planning and Coping Planning strategies for medication adherence and to verify the relationship between adherence and HRQoL. this was a controlled and randomized study. the sample (n=115) was randomized into two groups, IG (n=59) and CG (n=56). Measures of medication adherence and general and specific HRQoL were obtained in the baseline and after two months of monitoring. the findings showed that the combination of intervention strategies - Action Planning and Coping Planning for medication adherence did not affect the HRQoL of coronary artery disease patients in outpatient monitoring.

The full Bayesian significance test for mixture models: results in gene expression clustering

Gene clustering is a useful exploratory technique to group together genes with similar expression levels under distinct cell cycle phases or distinct conditions. It helps the biologist to identify potentially meaningful relationships between genes. In this study, we propose a clustering method based on multivariate normal mixture models, where the number of clusters is predicted via sequential hypothesis tests: at each step, the method considers a mixture model of m components (m = 2 in the first step) and tests if in fact it should be m - 1. If the hypothesis is rejected, m is increased and a new test is carried out. The method continues (increasing m) until the hypothesis is accepted. The theoretical core of the method is the full Bayesian significance test, an intuitive Bayesian approach, which needs no model complexity penalization nor positive probabilities for sharp hypotheses. Numerical experiments were based on a cDNA microarray dataset consisting of expression levels of 205 genes belonging to four functional categories, for 10 distinct strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. To analyze the method's sensitivity to data dimension, we performed principal components analysis on the original dataset and predicted the number of classes using 2 to 10 principal components. Compared to Mclust (model-based clustering), our method shows more consistent results.

Development, implementation, and assessment of a distance module in endocrine physiology

Rangel EM, Mendes IA, Carnio EC, Marchi Alves LM, Godoy S, Crispim JA. Development, implementation, and assessment of a distance module in endocrine physiology. Adv Physiol Educ 34: 70-74, 2010; doi: 10.1152/advan.00070.2009.-This study aimed to develop, implement, and assess a distance module in endocrine physiology in TelEduc for undergraduate nursing students from a public university in Brazil, with a sample size of 44 students. Stage 1 consisted of the development of the module, through the process of creating a distance course by means of the Web. Stage 2 was the planning of the module's practical functioning, and stage 3 was the planning of student evaluations. In the experts' assessment, the module complied with pedagogical and technical requirements most of the time. In the practical functioning stage, 10 h were dedicated for on-site activities and 10 h for distance activities. Most students (93.2%) were women between 19 and 23 yr of age (75%). The internet was the most used means to remain updated for 23 students (59.0%), and 30 students (68.2%) accessed it from the teaching institution. A personal computer was used by 23 students (56.1%), and most of them (58.1%) learned to use it alone. Access to a forum was more dispersed (variation coefficient: 86.80%) than access to chat (variation coefficient: 65.14%). Average participation was 30 students in forums and 22 students in the chat. Students' final grades in the module averaged 8.5 (SD: 1.2). TelEduc was shown to be efficient in supporting the teaching- learning process of endocrine physiology.

Democracy on the edge: limits and possibilities for the implementation of an urban reform agenda in Brazil

In Brazil the 1990s constituted years of institutional achievements in the fields of housing and urban rights, given the incorporation of the principles of the social function of cities and property, the recognition of tenure rights for slum dwellers and the direct participation of citizens in the decision making process of urban policies, within the 1988 Constitution. These proposals have become the pillars of the Urban Reform agenda which has penetrated the federal government apparatus since the creation of the Ministry of Cities under Lula's administration. The article evaluates the limits and possibilities for the implementation of this agenda through the analysis of two policies proposed by the Ministry: the National Council of Cities and the campaign for Participatory Master Plans. The approach is based on the organization of the Brazilian State in terms of urban development, the relationship with the political system and the characteristics of Brazilian democracy.

Disequilibrium Coefficient: A Bayesian Perspective

Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) is an important genetic property that populations should have whenever they are not observing adverse situations as complete lack of panmixia, excess of mutations, excess of selection pressure, etc. HWE for decades has been evaluated; both frequentist and Bayesian methods are in use today. While historically the HWE formula was developed to examine the transmission of alleles in a population from one generation to the next, use of HWE concepts has expanded in human diseases studies to detect genotyping error and disease susceptibility (association); Ryckman and Williams (2008). Most analyses focus on trying to answer the question of whether a population is in HWE. They do not try to quantify how far from the equilibrium the population is. In this paper, we propose the use of a simple disequilibrium coefficient to a locus with two alleles. Based on the posterior density of this disequilibrium coefficient, we show how one can conduct a Bayesian analysis to verify how far from HWE a population is. There are other coefficients introduced in the literature and the advantage of the one introduced in this paper is the fact that, just like the standard correlation coefficients, its range is bounded and it is symmetric around zero (equilibrium) when comparing the positive and the negative values. To test the hypothesis of equilibrium, we use a simple Bayesian significance test, the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST); see Pereira, Stern andWechsler (2008) for a complete review. The disequilibrium coefficient proposed provides an easy and efficient way to make the analyses, especially if one uses Bayesian statistics. A routine in R programs (R Development Core Team, 2009) that implements the calculations is provided for the readers.

Phylogenetic position of the acariform mites: sensitivity to homology assessment under total evidence

Background: Mites (Acari) have traditionally been treated as monophyletic, albeit composed of two major lineages: Acariformes and Parasitiformes. Yet recent studies based on morphology, molecular data, or combinations thereof, have increasingly drawn their monophyly into question. Furthermore, the usually basal (molecular) position of one or both mite lineages among the chelicerates is in conflict to their morphology, and to the widely accepted view that mites are close relatives of Ricinulei. Results: The phylogenetic position of the acariform mites is examined through employing SSU, partial LSU sequences, and morphology from 91 chelicerate extant terminals (forty Acariformes). In a static homology framework, molecular sequences were aligned using their secondary structure as guide, whereby regions of ambiguous alignment were discarded, and pre-aligned sequences analyzed under parsimony and different mixed models in a Bayesian inference. Parsimony and Bayesian analyses led to trees largely congruent concerning infraordinal, well-supported branches, but with low support for inter-ordinal relationships. An exception is Solifugae + Acariformes (P. P = 100%, J. = 0.91). In a dynamic homology framework, two analyses were run: a standard POY analysis and an analysis constrained by secondary structure. Both analyses led to largely congruent trees; supporting a (Palpigradi (Solifugae Acariformes)) clade and Ricinulei as sister group of Tetrapulmonata with the topology (Ricinulei (Amblypygi (Uropygi Araneae))). Combined analysis with two different morphological data matrices were run in order to evaluate the impact of constraining the analysis on the recovered topology when employing secondary structure as a guide for homology establishment. The constrained combined analysis yielded two topologies similar to the exclusively molecular analysis for both morphological matrices, except for the recovery of Pedipalpi instead of the (Uropygi Araneae) clade. The standard (direct optimization) POY analysis, however, led to the recovery of trees differing in the absence of the otherwise well-supported group Solifugae + Acariformes. Conclusions: Previous studies combining ribosomal sequences and morphology often recovered topologies similar to purely morphological analyses of Chelicerata. The apparent stability of certain clades not recovered here, like Haplocnemata and Acari, is regarded as a byproduct of the way the molecular homology was previously established using the instrumentalist approach implemented in POY. Constraining the analysis by a priori homology assessment is defended here as a way of maintaining the severity of the test when adding new data to the analysis. Although the strength of the method advocated here is keeping phylogenetic information from regions usually discarded in an exclusively static homology framework; it still has the inconvenience of being uninformative on the effect of alignment ambiguity on resampling methods of clade support estimation. Finally, putative morphological apomorphies of Solifugae + Acariformes are the reduction of the proximal cheliceral podomere, medial abutting of the leg coxae, loss of sperm nuclear membrane, and presence of differentiated germinative and secretory regions in the testis delivering their products into a common lumen.

Bayesian online algorithms for learning in discrete Hidden Markov Models

We propose and analyze two different Bayesian online algorithms for learning in discrete Hidden Markov Models and compare their performance with the already known Baldi-Chauvin Algorithm. Using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a measure of generalization we draw learning curves in simplified situations for these algorithms and compare their performances.

Covariant Gauge on the Lattice: A New Implementation

We derive a new implementation of linear covariant gauges on the lattice, based on a minimizing functional that can be interpreted as the Hamiltonian of a spin-glass model in a random external magnetic field. We show that our method solves most problems encountered in earlier implementations, mostly related to the no-go condition formulated by Giusti [Nucl. Phys. B498, 331 (1997)]. We carry out tests in the SU(2) case in four space-time dimensions. We also present preliminary results for the transverse gluon propagator at different values of the gauge parameter xi.