A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Bayesian feedback versus Markovian feedback in a two-level atom

We compare two different approaches to the control of the dynamics of a continuously monitored open quantum system. The first is Markovian feedback, as introduced in quantum optics by Wiseman and Milburn [Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 548 (1993)]. The second is feedback based on an estimate of the system state, developed recently by Doherty and Jacobs [Phys. Rev. A 60, 2700 (1999)]. Here we choose to call it, for brevity, Bayesian feedback. For systems with nonlinear dynamics, we expect these two methods of feedback control to give markedly different results. The simplest possible nonlinear system is a driven and damped two-level atom, so we choose this as our model system. The monitoring is taken to be homodyne detection of the atomic fluorescence, and the control is by modulating the driving. The aim of the feedback in both cases is to stabilize the internal state of the atom as close as possible to an arbitrarily chosen pure state, in the presence of inefficient detection and other forms of decoherence. Our results (obtained without recourse to stochastic simulations) prove that Bayesian feedback is never inferior, and is usually superior, to Markovian feedback. However, it would be far more difficult to implement than Markovian feedback and it loses its superiority when obvious simplifying approximations are made. It is thus not clear which form of feedback would be better in the face of inevitable experimental imperfections.

Prediction of coal ash fusion temperatures with the F*A*C*T thermodynamic computer package

This paper outlines research on the processes taking place within the coal mineral matter at high temperatures and development of the relationship between ash fusion temperatures (AFT) and phase equilibria of the coal ash slags. A new thermodynamic database for the Al-Ca-Fe-O-Si system developed by the author was used in conjunction with the thermodynamic computer package F*A*C*T for these purposes. In addition, high temperature experimental studies were undertaken that involved heat treatment and quenching of the ash cones followed by the analyses using different techniques. The study provided new information on the processes taking place during AFT test and demonstrated the validity of the AFTs predictions with F*A*C*T. Examples of practical applications of the AFT prediction method are given in the paper. The results of this study are important not only for the AFT predictions, but also in general for the application of phase equilibrium science to the characterisation of the coal mineral matter interactions at high temperature. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of latent heat of fusion on heat transfer in fluidized-bed coating of thin plates

This paper presents a numerical study of fluidized-bed coating on thin plates using an orthogonal collocation technique. Inclusion of the latent heat of fusion term in the boundary conditions of the mathematical model accounts for the fact that some polymer powders used in coating may be partially crystalline. Predictions of coating thickness on flat plates were made with actual polymers used in fluidized-bed coating. Reasonably good agreement between numerical predictions of the coating thickness and experimental coating data of Richart was obtained for steel panels preheated to 316 degreesC. A good agreement was also obtained between numerical predictions and our coating thickness data for nylon-11 and polyethylene powders. Predicted coating thickness for polyethylene powder on flat plates were obtained with values of heat transfer coefficient closer to those obtained from our experiments. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.

Are Ichthyosporea animals or fungi? Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of elongation factor 1α of Ichthyophonus irregularis

Ichthyosporea is a recently recognized group of morphologically simple eukaryotes, many of which cause disease in aquatic organisms. Ribosomal RNA sequence analyses place Ichthyosporea near the divergence of the animal and fungal lineages, but do not allow resolution of its exact phylogenetic position. Some of the best evidence for a specific grouping of animals and fungi (Opisthokonta) has come from elongation factor 1alpha, not only phylogenetic analysis of sequences but also the presence or absence of short insertions and deletions. We sequenced the EF-1alpha gene from the ichthyosporean parasite Ichthyophonus irregularis and determined its phylogenetic position using neighbor-joining, parsimony and Bayesian methods. We also sequenced EF-1alpha genes from four chytrids to provide broader representation within fungi. Sequence analyses and the presence of a characteristic 12 amino acid insertion strongly indicate that I. irregularis is a member of Opisthokonta, but do not resolve whether I. irregularis is a specific relative of animals or of fungi. However, the EF-1alpha of I. irregularis exhibits a two amino acid deletion heretofore reported only among fungi. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Structural characterization of respiratory syncytial virus fusion inhibitor escape mutants: homology model of the F protein and a syncytium formation assay

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a ubiquitous human pathogen and the leading cause of lower respiratory tract infections in infants. Infection of cells and subsequent formation of syncytia occur through membrane fusion mediated by the RSV fusion protein (RSV-F). A novel in vitro assay of recombinant RSV-F function has been devised and used to characterize a number of escape mutants for three known inhibitors of RSV-F that have been isolated. Homology modeling of the RSV-F structure has been carried out on the basis of a chimera derived from the crystal structures of the RSV-F core and a fragment from the orthologous fusion protein from Newcastle disease virus (NDV). The structure correlates well with the appearance of RSV-F in electron micrographs, and the residues identified as contributing to specific binding sites for several monoclonal antibodies are arranged in appropriate solvent-accessible clusters. The positions of the characterized resistance mutants in the model structure identify two promising regions for the design of fusion inhibitors. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Entity localization and tracking: a sensor fusion-based mechanism in WSNs

Knowing exactly where a mobile entity is and monitoring its trajectory in real-time has recently attracted a lot of interests from both academia and industrial communities, due to the large number of applications it enables, nevertheless, it is nowadays one of the most challenging problems from scientific and technological standpoints. In this work we propose a tracking system based on the fusion of position estimations provided by different sources, that are combined together to get a final estimation that aims at providing improved accuracy with respect to those generated by each system individually. In particular, exploiting the availability of a Wireless Sensor Network as an infrastructure, a mobile entity equipped with an inertial system first gets the position estimation using both a Kalman Filter and a fully distributed positioning algorithm (the Enhanced Steepest Descent, we recently proposed), then combines the results using the Simple Convex Combination algorithm. Simulation results clearly show good performance in terms of the final accuracy achieved. Finally, the proposed technique is validated against real data taken from an inertial sensor provided by THALES ITALIA.

Value of a lower limb immobilization device for SPECT/CT image fusion optimization

The foot and the ankle are small structures commonly affected by disorders, and their complex anatomy represent significant diagnostic challenges. SPECT/CT Image fusion can provide missing anatomical and bone structure information to functional imaging, which is particularly useful to increase diagnosis certainty of bone pathology. However, due to SPECT acquisition duration, patient’s involuntary movements may lead to misalignment between SPECT and CT images. Patient motion can be reduced using a dedicated patient support. We aimed at designing an ankle and foot immobilizing device and measuring its efficacy at improving image fusion. Methods: We enrolled 20 patients undergoing distal lower-limb SPECT/CT of the ankle and the foot with and without a foot holder. The misalignment between SPECT and CT images was computed by manually measuring 14 fiducial markers chosen among anatomical landmarks also visible on bone scintigraphy. Analysis of variance was performed for statistical analysis. Results: The obtained absolute average difference without and with support was 5.1±5.2 mm (mean±SD) and 3.1±2.7 mm, respectively, which is significant (p<0.001). Conclusion: The introduction of the foot holder significantly decreases misalignment between SPECT and CT images, which may have clinical influence in the precise localization of foot and ankle pathology.

Robot visual localization through local feature fusion: an evaluation of multiple classifiers combination approaches

In the last decade, local image features have been widely used in robot visual localization. In order to assess image similarity, a strategy exploiting these features compares raw descriptors extracted from the current image with those in the models of places. This paper addresses the ensuing step in this process, where a combining function must be used to aggregate results and assign each place a score. Casting the problem in the multiple classifier systems framework, in this paper we compare several candidate combiners with respect to their performance in the visual localization task. For this evaluation, we selected the most popular methods in the class of non-trained combiners, namely the sum rule and product rule. A deeper insight into the potential of these combiners is provided through a discriminativity analysis involving the algebraic rules and two extensions of these methods: the threshold, as well as the weighted modifications. In addition, a voting method, previously used in robot visual localization, is assessed. Furthermore, we address the process of constructing a model of the environment by describing how the model granularity impacts upon performance. All combiners are tested on a visual localization task, carried out on a public dataset. It is experimentally demonstrated that the sum rule extensions globally achieve the best performance, confirming the general agreement on the robustness of this rule in other classification problems. The voting method, whilst competitive with the product rule in its standard form, is shown to be outperformed by its modified versions.

Person Localization Using Sensor Information Fusion

Nowadays the incredible grow of mobile devices market led to the need for location-aware applications. However, sometimes person location is difficult to obtain, since most of these devices only have a GPS (Global Positioning System) chip to retrieve location. In order to suppress this limitation and to provide location everywhere (even where a structured environment doesn’t exist) a wearable inertial navigation system is proposed, which is a convenient way to track people in situations where other localization systems fail. The system combines pedestrian dead reckoning with GPS, using widely available, low-cost and low-power hardware components. The system innovation is the information fusion and the use of probabilistic methods to learn persons gait behavior to correct, in real-time, the drift errors given by the sensors.

Localization system for pedestrians based on sensor and information fusion

Nowadays there is an increase of location-aware mobile applications. However, these applications only retrieve location with a mobile device's GPS chip. This means that in indoor or in more dense environments these applications don't work properly. To provide location information everywhere a pedestrian Inertial Navigation System (INS) is typically used, but these systems can have a large estimation error since, in order to turn the system wearable, they use low-cost and low-power sensors. In this work a pedestrian INS is proposed, where force sensors were included to combine with the accelerometer data in order to have a better detection of the stance phase of the human gait cycle, which leads to improvements in location estimation. Besides sensor fusion an information fusion architecture is proposed, based on the information from GPS and several inertial units placed on the pedestrian body, that will be used to learn the pedestrian gait behavior to correct, in real-time, the inertial sensors errors, thus improving location estimation.