Multicollinearity and financial constraint in investment decisions: a Bayesian generalized ridge regression

This paper addresses the investment decisions considering the presence of financial constraints of 373 large Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using panel data. A Bayesian econometric model was used considering ridge regression for multicollinearity problems among the variables in the model. Prior distributions are assumed for the parameters, classifying the model into random or fixed effects. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters, considering normal and Student t distributions for the error and assumed that the initial values for the lagged dependent variable are not fixed, but generated by a random process. The recursive predictive density criterion was used for model comparisons. Twenty models were tested and the results indicated that multicollinearity does influence the value of the estimated parameters. Controlling for capital intensity, financial constraints are found to be more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.

Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fast-convergent iterative scheme for filtering velocity signals and finding Kolmogorov scales

The present fundamental knowledge of fluid turbulence has been established primarily from hot- and cold-wire measurements. Unfortunately, however, these measurements necessarily suffer from contamination by noise since no certain method has previously been available to optimally filter noise from the measured signals. This limitation has impeded our progress of understanding turbulence profoundly. We address this limitation by presenting a simple, fast-convergent iterative scheme to digitally filter signals optimally and find Kolmogorov scales definitely. The great efficacy of the scheme is demonstrated by its application to the instantaneous velocity measured in a turbulent jet.

Molecular characterization of the Hepatitis B virus genotypes in Colombia: A Bayesian inference on the genotype F

Hepatitis B is a worldwide health problem affecting about 2 billion people and more than 350 million are chronic carriers of the virus. Nine HBV genotypes (A to I) have been described. The geographical distribution of HBV genotypes is not completely understood due to the limited number of samples from some parts of the world. One such example is Colombia, in which few studies have described the HBV genotypes. In this study, we characterized HBV genotypes in 143 HBsAg-positive volunteer blood donors from Colombia. A fragment of 1306 bp partially comprising HBsAg and the DNA polymerase coding regions (S/POL) was amplified and sequenced. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to obtain the maximum clade credibility (MCC) tree using BEAST v.1.5.3. Of all samples, 68 were positive and 52 were successfully sequenced. Genotype F was the most prevalent in this population (77%) - subgenotypes F3 (75%) and Fib (2%). Genotype G (7.7%) and subgenotype A2 (15.3%) were also found. Genotype G sequence analysis suggests distinct introductions of this genotype in the country. Furthermore, we estimated the time of the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) for each HBV/F subgenotype and also for Colombian F3 sequences using two different datasets: (i) 77 sequences comprising 1306 bp of S/POL region and (ii) 283 sequences comprising 681 bp of S/POL region. We also used two other previously estimated evolutionary rates: (i) 2.60 x 10(-4) s/s/y and (ii) 1.5 x 10(-5) s/s/y. Here we report the HBV genotypes circulating in Colombia and estimated the TMRCA for the four different subgenotypes of genotype F. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Lanczos subspace filter diagonalization: Homogeneous recursive filtering and a low-storage method for the calculation of matrix elements

We develop a new iterative filter diagonalization (FD) scheme based on Lanczos subspaces and demonstrate its application to the calculation of bound-state and resonance eigenvalues. The new scheme combines the Lanczos three-term vector recursion for the generation of a tridiagonal representation of the Hamiltonian with a three-term scalar recursion to generate filtered states within the Lanczos representation. Eigenstates in the energy windows of interest can then be obtained by solving a small generalized eigenvalue problem in the subspace spanned by the filtered states. The scalar filtering recursion is based on the homogeneous eigenvalue equation of the tridiagonal representation of the Hamiltonian, and is simpler and more efficient than our previous quasi-minimum-residual filter diagonalization (QMRFD) scheme (H. G. Yu and S. C. Smith, Chem. Phys. Lett., 1998, 283, 69), which was based on solving for the action of the Green operator via an inhomogeneous equation. A low-storage method for the construction of Hamiltonian and overlap matrix elements in the filtered-basis representation is devised, in which contributions to the matrix elements are computed simultaneously as the recursion proceeds, allowing coefficients of the filtered states to be discarded once their contribution has been evaluated. Application to the HO2 system shows that the new scheme is highly efficient and can generate eigenvalues with the same numerical accuracy as the basic Lanczos algorithm.

The effect of high-pass filtering on TEOAE in 2-month-old infants

The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of high-pass filtering on TEOAE obtained from 2-month-old infants as a function of filter cut-off frequency, activity states and pass/fail status of infants. Two experiments were performed. In Experiment 1, 100 2-month-old infants (200 ears) in five activity states (asleep, awake but peaceful, sucking a pacifier, feeding, restless) were tested by use of TEOAE technology. Five different filter conditions were applied to the TEOAE responses post hoc. The filter conditions were set at 781 Hz (default setting), 1.0, 1.2, 1.4 and 1.6 kHz. Results from this experiment showed that TEOAE parameters, such as whole-wave reproducibility (WR) and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) at 0.8 kHz and 1.6 kHz, changed as a function of the cut-off frequency. The findings suggest that the 1.6 kHz and 1.2 kHz filter conditions are optimal for WR and SNR pass/fail criteria, respectively. Although all infant recordings appeared to benefit from the filtering, infants in the noisy states seemed to benefit the most. In Experiment 2, the high-pass filtering technique was applied to 23 infants (35 ears) who apparently failed the TEOAE tests on initial screening but were subsequently awarded a pass status based on the results from a follow-up auditory brainstem response (ABR) assessment. The findings showed a significant decrease in noise contamination of the TEOAE with a corresponding significant increase in WR. With high-pass filtering at 1.6 kHz, 21/35 ears could be reclassified into the pass category.