A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

The effect of resource aggregation at different scales: Optimal foraging behavior of Cotesia rubecula

Resources can be aggregated both within and between patches. In this article, we examine how aggregation at these different scales influences the behavior and performance of foragers. We developed an optimal foraging model of the foraging behavior of the parasitoid wasp Cotesia rubecula parasitizing the larvae of the cabbage butterfly Pieris rapae. The optimal behavior was found using stochastic dynamic programming. The most interesting and novel result is that the effect of resource aggregation within and between patches depends on the degree of aggregation both within and between patches as well as on the local host density in the occupied patch, but lifetime reproductive success depends only on aggregation within patches. Our findings have profound implications for the way in which we measure heterogeneity at different scales and model the response of organisms to spatial heterogeneity.

Bayesian feedback versus Markovian feedback in a two-level atom

We compare two different approaches to the control of the dynamics of a continuously monitored open quantum system. The first is Markovian feedback, as introduced in quantum optics by Wiseman and Milburn [Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 548 (1993)]. The second is feedback based on an estimate of the system state, developed recently by Doherty and Jacobs [Phys. Rev. A 60, 2700 (1999)]. Here we choose to call it, for brevity, Bayesian feedback. For systems with nonlinear dynamics, we expect these two methods of feedback control to give markedly different results. The simplest possible nonlinear system is a driven and damped two-level atom, so we choose this as our model system. The monitoring is taken to be homodyne detection of the atomic fluorescence, and the control is by modulating the driving. The aim of the feedback in both cases is to stabilize the internal state of the atom as close as possible to an arbitrarily chosen pure state, in the presence of inefficient detection and other forms of decoherence. Our results (obtained without recourse to stochastic simulations) prove that Bayesian feedback is never inferior, and is usually superior, to Markovian feedback. However, it would be far more difficult to implement than Markovian feedback and it loses its superiority when obvious simplifying approximations are made. It is thus not clear which form of feedback would be better in the face of inevitable experimental imperfections.

Inhibition of rat platelet aggregation by the diazeniumdiolate nitric oxide donor MAHMA NONOate

1 Inhibition of rat platelet aggregation by the nitric oxide (NO) donor MAHMA NONOate (Z-1-{N-methyl-N-[6-(N-methylammoniohexyl)amino]}diazen-l-ium-1,2-diolate) was investigated. The aims were to compare its anti-aggregatory effect with vasorelaxation, to determine the effects of the soluble guanylate cyclase inhibitor, ODQ (1H-[1,2,4]oxadiazolo[4,3-ajquinoxalin-1-one), and to investigate the possible role of activation of sarco-encloplasmic reticulum calcium-ATPase (SERCA), independent of soluble guanylate cyclase, using thapsigargin. 2 MAHMA NONOate concentration-dependently inhibited sub-maximal aggregation responses to collagen (2 - 10 mug ml(-1)) and adenosine diphosphate (ADP; 2 mum) in platelet rich plasma. It was (i) more effective at inhibiting aggregation induced by collagen than by ADP, and (ii) less potent at inhibiting platelet aggregation than relaxing rat pulmonary artery. 3 ODQ (10 mum) caused only a small shift (approximately half a log unit) in the concentration-response curve to MAHMA NONOate irrespective of the aggregating agent. 4 The NO-independent activator of soluble guanylate cyclase, YC-1 (3-(5'-hydroxymethyl-2'-furyl)-1-benzy] indazole; 1 - 100 mum), did not inhibit aggregation. The cGMP analogue, 8-pCPT-cGMP (8-(4-chlorophenylthio)guanosine 3'5' cyclic monophosphate; 0.1 - 1 mm), caused minimal inhibition. 5 On collagen-aggregated platelets responses to MAHMA NONOate (ODQ 10 PM present) were abolished by thapsigargin (200 nm). On ADP-aggregated platelets thapsigargin caused partial inhibition. 6 Results with S-nitrosoglutathione (GSNO) resembled those with MAHMA NONOate. Glyceryl trinitrate and sodium nitroprusside were poor inhibitors of aggregation. 7 Thus inhibition of rat platelet aggregation by MAHMA NONOate (like GSNO) is largely ODQ-resistant and, by implication, independent of soluble guanylate cyclase. A likely mechanism of inhibition is activation of SERCA.

Prolonged retention after aggregation into secretory granules of human R183H-growth hormone (GH), a mutant that causes autosomal dominant GH deficiency type II

Human R183H-GH causes autosomal dominant GH deficiency type II. Because we show here that the mutant hormone is fully bioactive, we have sought to locate an impairment in its progress through the secretory pathway as assessed by pulse chase experiments. Newly synthesized wild-type and R183H-GH were stable when expressed transiently in AtT20 cells, and both formed equivalent amounts of Lubrol-insoluble aggregates within 40 min after synthesis. There was no evidence for intermolecular disulfide bond formation in aggregates of wild-type hormone or the R183H mutant. Both wildtype and R183H-GH were packaged into secretory granules, assessed by the ability of 1 mm BaCl2 to stimulate release and by immunocytochemistry. The mutant differed from wildtype hormone in its retention in the cells after packaging into secretory granules; 50% more R183H-GH than wild-type aggregates were retained in AtT20 cells 120 min after synthesis, and stimulated release of R183H-GH or a mixture of R183H-GH and wild-type that had been retained in the cell was reduced. The longer retention of R183H-GH aggregates indicates that a single point mutation in a protein contained in secretory granules affects the rate of secretory granule release.

Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.

5-Hydroxytryptamine and platelets: uptake and aggregation in hypoxic pulmonary hypertensive rats

Pulmonary hypertension is associated with various alterations in 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT) physiology. In this study in platelets from hypoxic pulmonary hypertensive rats (10% O-2; 1 week) and normoxic rats (room air), (i) initial rates of specific [H-3]5-HT uptake were measured and (ii) potentiation of collagen- and ADP-induced aggregation by 5-HT was quantified. The platelet count was almost halved in hypoxic rats. In uptake experiments, there was a decrease in 5-HT uptake in platelets from hypoxic compared with normoxic rats, due to a 36% reduction in the maximal initial rate of uptake. The aggregation experiments showed that 5-HT (1-100 muM) increased the magnitude of responses to collagen and the duration of responses to ADP, but there was no difference between hypoxic and normoxic rats. Abnormalities in platelet function may conceivably lead to increases in plasma 5-HT levels in hypoxic pulmonary hypertension, but are unlikely to aggravate pulmonary thromboembolism. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Are Ichthyosporea animals or fungi? Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of elongation factor 1α of Ichthyophonus irregularis

Ichthyosporea is a recently recognized group of morphologically simple eukaryotes, many of which cause disease in aquatic organisms. Ribosomal RNA sequence analyses place Ichthyosporea near the divergence of the animal and fungal lineages, but do not allow resolution of its exact phylogenetic position. Some of the best evidence for a specific grouping of animals and fungi (Opisthokonta) has come from elongation factor 1alpha, not only phylogenetic analysis of sequences but also the presence or absence of short insertions and deletions. We sequenced the EF-1alpha gene from the ichthyosporean parasite Ichthyophonus irregularis and determined its phylogenetic position using neighbor-joining, parsimony and Bayesian methods. We also sequenced EF-1alpha genes from four chytrids to provide broader representation within fungi. Sequence analyses and the presence of a characteristic 12 amino acid insertion strongly indicate that I. irregularis is a member of Opisthokonta, but do not resolve whether I. irregularis is a specific relative of animals or of fungi. However, the EF-1alpha of I. irregularis exhibits a two amino acid deletion heretofore reported only among fungi. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Effect of cylindrical filler aggregation on the electrical conductivity of composites

This work reports on the effect of carbon nanotube aggregation on the electrical conductivity and other network properties of polymer/carbon nanotube composites by modeling the carbon nanotubes as hard-core cylinders. It is shown that the conductivity decreases for increasing filler aggregation, and that this effect is more significant for higher cylinder volume fractions. It is also demonstrated, for volume fractions at which the giant component is present, that increasing the fraction of cylinders within clusters leads to a break of the giant component and the formation of a set of finite clusters. The decrease of the giant component with the increase of the fraction of cylinders within the cluster can be related to a decrease of the spanning probability due to a decrease of the number of cylinders between the clusters. Finally, it is demonstrated that the effect of aggregation can be understood by employing the network theory.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa amidase: Aggregation in recombinant Escherichia coli

The effect of cultivation parameters such as temperature incubation, IPTG induction and ethanol shock on the production of Pseudomonasaeruginosa amidase (E.C.3.5.1.4) in a recombinant Escherichia coli strain in LB ampicillin culture medium was investigated. The highest yield of solubleamidase, relatively to other proteins, was obtained in the condition at 37 degrees C using 0.40 mM IPTG to induce growth, with ethanol. Our results demonstrate the formation of insoluble aggregates containing amidase, which was biologically active, in all tested growth conditions. Addition of ethanol at 25 degrees C in the culture medium improved amidase yield, which quantitatively aggregated in a biologically active form and exhibited in all conditions an increased specific activity relatively to the soluble form of the enzyme. Non-denaturing solubilization of the aggregated amidase was successfully achieved using L-arginine. The aggregates obtained from conditions at 37 degrees C by Furier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) analysis demonstrated a lower content of intermolecular interactions, which facilitated the solubilization step applying non-denaturing conditions. The higher interactions exhibited in aggregates obtained at suboptimal conditions compromised the solubilization yield. This work provides an approach for the characterization and solubilization of novel reported biologically active aggregates of this amidase.