Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

A Bayesian changepoint analysis on spatio-temporal point processes

Changepoint analysis is a well established area of statistical research, but in the context of spatio-temporal point processes it is as yet relatively unexplored. Some substantial differences with regard to standard changepoint analysis have to be taken into account: firstly, at every time point the datum is an irregular pattern of points; secondly, in real situations issues of spatial dependence between points and temporal dependence within time segments raise. Our motivating example consists of data concerning the monitoring and recovery of radioactive particles from Sandside beach, North of Scotland; there have been two major changes in the equipment used to detect the particles, representing known potential changepoints in the number of retrieved particles. In addition, offshore particle retrieval campaigns are believed may reduce the particle intensity onshore with an unknown temporal lag; in this latter case, the problem concerns multiple unknown changepoints. We therefore propose a Bayesian approach for detecting multiple changepoints in the intensity function of a spatio-temporal point process, allowing for spatial and temporal dependence within segments. We use Log-Gaussian Cox Processes, a very flexible class of models suitable for environmental applications that can be implemented using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), a computationally efficient alternative to Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods for approximating the posterior distribution of the parameters. Once the posterior curve is obtained, we propose a few methods for detecting significant change points. We present a simulation study, which consists in generating spatio-temporal point pattern series under several scenarios; the performance of the methods is assessed in terms of type I and II errors, detected changepoint locations and accuracy of the segment intensity estimates. We finally apply the above methods to the motivating dataset and find good and sensible results about the presence and quality of changes in the process.

Lateral sediment sources and knickzones as controls on spatio-temporal variations of sediment transport in an Alpine river

Modern mixed alluvial-bedrock channels in mountainous areas provide natural laboratories for understanding the time scales at which coarse-grained material has been entrained and transported from their sources to the adjacent sedimentary sink, where these deposits are preserved as conglomerates. This article assesses the shear stress conditions needed for the entrainment of the coarse-bed particles in the Glogn River that drains the 400 km2 Val Lumnezia basin, eastern Swiss Alps. In addition, quantitative data are presented on sediment transport patterns in this stream. The longitudinal stream profile of this river is characterized by three ca 500 m long knickzones where channel gradients range from 0·02 to 0·2 m m−1, and where the valley bottom confined into a <10 m wide gorge. Downstream of these knickzones, the stream is flat with gradients <0·01 m m−1 and widths ≥30 m. Measurements of the grain-size distribution along the trunk stream yield a mean D84 value of ca 270 mm, whereas the mean D50 is ca 100 mm. The consequences of the channel morphology and the grain-size distribution for the time scales of sediment transport were explored by using a one-dimensional step-backwater hydraulic model (Hydrologic Engineering Centre – River Analysis System). The results reveal that, along the entire trunk stream, a two to 10 year return period flood event is capable of mobilizing both the D50 and D84 fractions where the Shields stress exceeds the critical Shields stress for the initiation of particle motion. These return periods, however, varied substantially depending on the channel geometry and the pebble/boulder size distribution of the supplied material. Accordingly, the stream exhibits a highly dynamic boulder cover behaviour. It is likely that these time scales might also have been at work when coarse-grained conglomerates were constructed in the geological past.

Modelling the spatio-temporal pattern of primary dispersal in stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) stands in the Northern Plateau (Spain)

Natural regeneration in stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) managed forests in the Spanish Northern Plateau is not achieved successfully under current silviculture practices, constituting a main concern for forest managers. We modelled spatio-temporal features of primary dispersal to test whether (a) present low stand densities constrain natural regeneration success and (b) seed release is a climate-controlled process. The present study is based on data collected from a 6 years seed trap experiment considering different regeneration felling intensities. From a spatial perspective, we attempted alternate established kernels under different data distribution assumptions to fit a spatial model able to predict P. pinea seed rain. Due to P. pinea umbrella-like crown, models were adapted to account for crown effect through correction of distances between potential seed arrival locations and seed sources. In addition, individual tree fecundity was assessed independently from existing models, improving parameter estimation stability. Seed rain simulation enabled to calculate seed dispersal indexes for diverse silvicultural regeneration treatments. The selected spatial model of best fit (Weibull, Poisson assumption) predicted a highly clumped dispersal pattern that resulted in a proportion of gaps where no seed arrival is expected (dispersal limitation) between 0.25 and 0.30 for intermediate intensity regeneration fellings and over 0.50 for intense fellings. To describe the temporal pattern, the proportion of seeds released during monthly intervals was modelled as a function of climate variables – rainfall events – through a linear model that considered temporal autocorrelation, whereas cone opening took place over a temperature threshold. Our findings suggest the application of less intensive regeneration fellings, to be carried out after years of successful seedling establishment and, seasonally, subsequent to the main rainfall period (late fall). This schedule would avoid dispersal limitation and would allow for a complete seed release. These modifications in present silviculture practices would produce a more efficient seed shadow in managed stands.

Spatio-Temporal Tracking and Phylodynamics of an Urban Dengue 3 Outbreak in Sao Paulo, Brazil

The dengue virus has a single-stranded positive-sense RNA genome of similar to 10.700 nucleotides with a single open reading frame that encodes three structural (C, prM, and E) and seven nonstructural (NS1, NS2A, NS2B, NS3, NS4A, NS4B, and NS5) proteins. It possesses four antigenically distinct serotypes (DENV 1-4). Many phylogenetic studies address particularities of the different serotypes using convenience samples that are not conducive to a spatio-temporal analysis in a single urban setting. We describe the pattern of spread of distinct lineages of DENV-3 circulating in Sao Jose do Rio Preto, Brazil, during 2006. Blood samples from patients presenting dengue-like symptoms were collected for DENV testing. We performed M-N-PCR using primers based on NS5 for virus detection and identification. The fragments were purified from PCR mixtures and sequenced. The positive dengue cases were geo-coded. To type the sequenced samples, 52 reference sequences were aligned. The dataset generated was used for iterative phylogenetic reconstruction with the maximum likelihood criterion. The best demographic model, the rate of growth, rate of evolutionary change, and Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor (TMRCA) were estimated. The basic reproductive rate during the epidemics was estimated. We obtained sequences from 82 patients among 174 blood samples. We were able to geo-code 46 sequences. The alignment generated a 399-nucleotide-long dataset with 134 taxa. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that all samples were of DENV-3 and related to strains circulating on the isle of Martinique in 2000-2001. Sixty DENV-3 from Sao Jose do Rio Preto formed a monophyletic group (lineage 1), closely related to the remaining 22 isolates (lineage 2). We assumed that these lineages appeared before 2006 in different occasions. By transforming the inferred exponential growth rates into the basic reproductive rate, we obtained values for lineage 1 of R(0) = 1.53 and values for lineage 2 of R(0) = 1.13. Under the exponential model, TMRCA of lineage 1 dated 1 year and lineage 2 dated 3.4 years before the last sampling. The possibility of inferring the spatio-temporal dynamics from genetic data has been generally little explored, and it may shed light on DENV circulation. The use of both geographic and temporally structured phylogenetic data provided a detailed view on the spread of at least two dengue viral strains in a populated urban area.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Experimental infection of Australian brushtail possums, Trichosurus vulpecula (Phalangeridae : Marsupialia), with Ross River and Barmah Forest viruses by use of a natural mosquito vector system

Brushtail possums, Trichosurus vulpecula Kerr, were experimentally infected with Ross River (RR) or Barmah Forest (BF) virus by Aedes vigilax (Skuse) mosquitoes. Eight of 10 animals exposed to RR virus developed neutralizing antibody, and 3 possums developed high viremia for < 48 hr after infection, sufficient to infect recipient mosquitoes. Two of 10 animals exposed to BF virus developed neutralizing antibody. Both infected possums maintained detectable neutralizing antibody to BF for at least 45 days after infection (log neutralization index > 2.0 at 45 days). Eight possums did not develop neutralizing antibody to BF despite exposure to infected mosquitoes. These results suggest that T. vulpecula may potentially act as a reservoir species for RR in urban areas. However, T. vulpecula infected with BF do not develop viremia sufficient to infect mosquitoes and are unlikely to be important hosts for BF.

Spatio-temporal trends of mortality in small areas of Southern Spain

Background: Most mortality atlases show static maps from count data aggregated over time. This procedure has several methodological problems and serious limitations for decision making in Public Health. The evaluation of health outcomes, including mortality, should be approached from a dynamic time perspective that is specific for each gender and age group. At the moment, researches in Spain do not provide a dynamic image of the population’s mortality status from a spatio-temporal point of view. The aim of this paper is to describe the spatial distribution of mortality from all causes in small areas of Andalusia (Southern Spain) and evolution over time from 1981 to 2006. Methods: A small-area ecological study was devised using the municipality as the unit for analysis. Two spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian models were estimated for each age group and gender. One of these was used to estimate the specific mortality rate, together with its time trends, and the other to estimate the specific rate ratio for each municipality compared with Spain as a whole. Results: More than 97% of the municipalities showed a diminishing or flat mortality trend in all gender and age groups. In 2006, over 95% of municipalities showed male and female mortality specific rates similar or significantly lower than Spanish rates for all age groups below 65. Systematically, municipalities in Western Andalusia showed significant male and female mortality excess from 1981 to 2006 only in age groups over 65. Conclusions: The study shows a dynamic geographical distribution of mortality, with a different pattern for each year, gender and age group. This information will contribute towards a reflection on the past, present and future of mortality in Andalusia.

Waiting for chikungunya fever in Argentina: spatio-temporal risk maps

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission has been detected in America in 2013 and recently reached south up to Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay, bordering countries of Argentina. The presence of the mosquito Aedes aegyptiin half of the country together with the regional context drove us to make a rapid assessment of transmission risk. Temperature thresholds for vector breeding and for virus transmission, together with adult activity from the literature, were mapped on a monthly basis to estimate risk. Transmission of chikungunya byAe. aegyptiin the world was seen at monthly mean temperatures from 21-34ºC, with the majority occurring between 26-28ºC. In Argentina temperatures above 21ºC are observed since September in the northeast, expanding south until January and retreating back to the northeast in April. The maximum area under risk encompasses more than half the country and around 32 million inhabitants. Vector adult activity was registered where monthly means temperatures exceeded 13ºC, in the northeast all over the year and in the northern half from September-May. The models herein proposed show that conditions for transmission are already present. Considering the regional context and the historic inability to control dengue in the region, chikungunya fever illness seems unavoidable.

SESAM - a new framework integrating macroecological and species distribution models for predicting spatio-temporal patterns of species assemblages

Two different approaches currently prevail for predicting spatial patterns of species assemblages. The first approach (macroecological modelling, MEM) focuses directly on realised properties of species assemblages, whereas the second approach (stacked species distribution modelling, S-SDM) starts with constituent species to approximate assemblage properties. Here, we propose to unify the two approaches in a single 'spatially-explicit species assemblage modelling' (SESAM) framework. This framework uses relevant species source pool designations, macroecological factors, and ecological assembly rules to constrain predictions of the richness and composition of species assemblages obtained by stacking predictions of individual species distributions. We believe that such a framework could prove useful in many theoretical and applied disciplines of ecology and evolution, both for improving our basic understanding of species assembly across spatio-temporal scales and for anticipating expected consequences of local, regional or global environmental changes. In this paper, we propose such a framework and call for further developments and testing across a broad range of community types in a variety of environments.

The residual circulation of the Southern Ocean: which spatio-temporal scales are needed?

The Southern Ocean circulation consists of a complicated mixture of processes and phenomena that arise at different time and spatial scales which need to be parametrized in the state-of-the-art climate models. The temporal and spatial scales that give rise to the present-day residual mean circulation are here investigated by calculating the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in density coordinates from an eddy-permitting global model. The region sensitive to the temporal decomposition is located between 38°S and 63°S, associated with the eddy-induced transport. The ‘‘Bolus’’ component of the residual circulation corresponds to the eddy-induced transport. It is dominated by timescales between 1 month and 1 year. The temporal behavior of the transient eddies is examined in splitting the ‘‘Bolus’’ component into a ‘‘Seasonal’’, an ‘‘Eddy’’ and an ‘‘Inter-monthly’’ component, respectively representing the correlation between density and velocity fluctuations due to the average seasonal cycle, due to mesoscale eddies and due to large-scale motion on timescales longer than one month that is not due to the seasonal cycle. The ‘‘Seasonal’’ bolus cell is important at all latitudes near the surface. The ‘‘Eddy’’ bolus cell is dominant in the thermocline between 50°S and 35°S and over the whole ocean depth at the latitude of the Drake Passage. The ‘‘Inter-monthly’’ bolus cell is important in all density classes and is maximal in the Brazil–Malvinas Confluence and the Agulhas Return Current. The spatial decomposition indicates that a large part of the Eulerian mean circulation is recovered for spatial scales larger than 11.25°, implying that small-scale meanders in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), near the Subantarctic and Polar Fronts, and near the Subtropical Front are important in the compensation of the Eulerian mean flow.

In-situ spatio-temporal measurements of the detailed azimuthal substructure of the substorm current wedge

The substorm current wedge (SCW) is a fundamental component of geomagnetic substorms. Models tend to describe the SCW as a simple line current flowing into the ionosphere towards dawn and out of the ionosphere towards dusk, linked by a westward electrojet. We use multi-spacecraft observations from perigee passes of the Cluster 1 and 4 spacecraft during a substorm on 15 Jan 2010, in conjunction with ground-based observations, to examine the spatial structuring and temporal variability of the SCW. At this time, the spacecraft travelled east-west azimuthally above the auroral region. We show that the SCW has significant azimuthal sub-structure on scales of 100~km at altitudes of 4,000-7,000~km. We identify 26 individual current sheets in the Cluster 4 data and 34 individual current sheets in the Cluster 1 data, with Cluster 1 passing through the SCW 120-240~s after Cluster 4 at 1,300-2,000~km higher altitude. Both spacecraft observed large-scale regions of net upward and downward field-aligned current, consistent with the large-scale characteristics of the SCW, although sheets of oppositely directed currents were observed within both regions. We show that the majority of these current sheets were closely aligned to a north-south direction, in contrast to the expected east-west orientation of the pre-onset aurora. Comparing our results with observations of the field-aligned current associated with bursty bulk flows (BBFs) we conclude that significant questions remain for the explanation of SCW structuring by BBF driven ``wedgelets". Our results therefore represent constraints on future modelling and theoretical frameworks on the generation of the SCW.

Spatio-temporal variation of macrofaunal assemblages in the deep Blanes submarine canyon

The spatio-temporal variations in diversity and abundance of deep-sea macrofaunal assemblages (excluding meiofaunal taxa, as Nematoda, Copepoda and Ostracoda) from the Blanes Canyon (BC) and adjacent open slope are described. The Catalan Sea basin is characterized by the presence of numerous submarine canyons, which are globally acknowledged as biodiversity hot-spots, due to their disturbance regime and incremented conveying of organic matter. This area is subjected to local deep-sea fisheries activities, and to recurrent cold water cascading events from the shelf. The upper canyon (~900 m), middle slope (~1200 m) and lower slope (~1500 m) habitats were investigated during three different months (October 2008, May 2009 and September 2009). A total of 624 specimens belonging to 16 different taxa were found into 67 analyzed samples, which had been collected from the two study areas. Of these, Polychaeta, Mollusca and Crustacea were always the most abundant groups. As expected, the patterns of species diversity and evenness were different in time and space. Both in BC and open slope, taxa diversity and abundance are higher in the shallowest depth and lowest at -1500 m depth. This is probably due to different trophic regimes at these depths. The abundance of filter-feeders is higher inside BC than in the adjacent open slope, which is also related with an increment of predator polychaetes. Surface deposit-feeders are more abundant in the open slope than in BC, along with a decrement of filter-feeders and their predators. Probably these differences are due to higher quantities of suspended organic matter reaching the canyon. The multivariate analyses conducted on major taxa point out major differences effective taxa richness between depths and stations. In September 2009 the analyzed communities double their abundances, with a corresponding increase in richness of taxa. This could be related to a mobilizing event, like the release of accumulated food-supply in a nepheloid layer associated to the arrival of autumn. The highest abundance in BC is detected in the shallowest depth and in late summer (September), probably due to higher food availability caused by stronger flood events coming from Tordera River. The effects of such events seemed to involve adjacent open slope too. The nMDS conducted on major taxa abundance shows a slight temporal difference between the three campaigns samples, with a clear clustering between samples of Sept 09. All depth and all months were dominated by Polychaeta, which have been identified to family level and submitted to further analysis. Family richness have clearly minimum at the -1200 m depth of BC, highlighting the presence of a general impact affecting the populations in the middle slope. Three different matrices have been created, each with a different taxonomic level (All Taxa “AT”, Phylum Level “PL” and Polychaeta Families “PF”). Multivariate analysis (MDS, SIMPER) conducted on PL matrix showed a clear spatial differences between stations (BC and open slope) and depths. MDSs conducted on other two matrices (AT and PF) showed similar patterns, but different from PL analysis. A 2 nd stage analysis have been conducted to understand differences between different taxonomic levels, and PL level has been chosen as the most representative of variation. The faunal differences observed were explained by depth, station and season. All work has been accomplished in the Centre d’estudis avançats de Blanes (CEAB-CSIC), within the framework of Spanish PROMETEO project "Estudio Integrado de Cañones y Taludes PROfundos del MEdiTErráneo Occidental: un hábitat esencial", Ref. CTM2007-66316-C02- 01/MAR.