A new credit monitoring framework for agents' networks

The purpose of this work is to develop a practicable approach for Telecom firms to manage the credit risk exposition to their commercial agents’ network. Particularly it will try to approach the problem of credit concession to clients’ from a corporation perspective and explore the particular scenario of agents that are part of the commercial chain of the corporation and therefore are not end-users. The agents’ network that served as a model for the presented study is composed by companies that, at the same time, are both clients and suppliers of the Telecommunication Company. In that sense the credit exposition analysis must took into consideration all financial fluxes, both inbound and outbound. The current strain on the Financial Sector in Portugal, and other peripheral European economies, combined with the high leverage situation of most companies, generates an environment prone to credit default risk. Due to these circumstances managing credit risk exposure is becoming increasingly a critical function for every company Financial Department. The approach designed in the current study combined two traditional risk monitoring tools: credit risk scoring and credit limitation policies. The objective was to design a new credit monitoring framework that is more flexible, uses both external and internal relationship history to assess risk and takes into consideration commercial objectives inside the agents’ network. Although not explored at length, the blueprint of a Credit Governance model was created for implementing the new credit monitoring framework inside the telecom firm. The Telecom Company that served as a model for the present work decided to implement the new Credit Monitoring framework after this was presented to its Executive Commission.

An epidemiological study determining blood pressure in a Portuguese cohort: the Guimaraes/Vizela study

Surveying the evolution of blood pressure (BP) levels and hypertension (HTN) prevalence is important. A stringent strategy was utilized in a population cohort study. The BP was measured at two visits at least 3 months apart, and the results were analyzed using the following two methods: the Surveillance method (three BP measurements were performed in one visit, and the results were compared with those published previously for the identical method) and the Clinical method (three measurements per visit for two visits, and the concordant results in both visits were used to determine the BP classification). A total of 2542 subjects completed the evaluation. Using the Clinical method, an average systolic/diastolic BP value of 129.8/76.8?mm?Hg was obtained, and the prevalence of HTN was 31.6%. Of the hypertensive patients, 74.3% were aware of his/her condition; 69.1% were treated and 40.8% of those treated had adequate BP control. A total of 24.7% of subjects changed his/her BP classification between visits, and 13.7% misreported HTN. Using the Surveillance method, we determined that the average global SBP has been maintained, with HTN prevalence increasing in this region, drifting from reported trends nationally and worldwide. There has been improvement in the proportion of treated and controlled subjects; however, the Surveillance method overestimated the HTN prevalence and underestimated the proportion of treated and controlled subjects. The BP levels were higher than observed worldwide in high-cardiovascular (CV) risk countries as well as higher than the minimum risk exposure level for developing CV disease.

Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity

We study a general static noisy rational expectations model where investors have private information about asset payoffs, with common and private components, and about their own exposure to an aggregate risk factor, and derive conditions for existence and uniqueness (or multiplicity) of equilibria. We find that a main driver of the characterization of equilibria is whether the actions of investors are strategic substitutes or complements. This latter property in turn is driven by the strength of a private learning channel from prices, arising from the multidimensional sources of asymmetric information, in relation to the usual public learning channel. When the private learning channel is strong (weak) in relation to the public we have strong (weak) strategic complementarity in actions and potentially multiple (unique) equilibria. The results enable a precise characterization of whether information acquisition decisions are strategic substitutes or complements. We find that the strategic substitutability in information acquisition result obtained in Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) is robust. JEL Classification: D82, D83, G14 Keywords: Rational expectations equilibrium, asymmetric information, risk exposure, hedging, supply information, information acquisition.

Five-year monitoring of a gay-friendly voluntary counselling and testing facility in Switzerland: who got tested and why?

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: An increase in new HIV cases among men who have sex with men (MSM) has been reported in Switzerland since 2001. A rapid result HIV testing for MSM through voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) facility ("Checkpoint") was opened in Geneva in 2005. This gay-friendly facility, the first to open in Switzerland, provides testing for sexually transmitted infections (STI) and rapid result HIV testing and counselling. Our objective was to analyze Checkpoint's activity over its first five years of activity and its ability to attract at-risk MSM. METHODS: We used routine data collected anonymously about the facility activity (number of clients, number of tests, and test results) and about the characteristics of the clientele (sociodemographic data, sexual risk behaviour, and reasons for testing) from 2005 to 2009. RESULTS: The yearly number of HIV tests performed increased from 249 in 2005 to 561 in 2009. The annual proportion of positive tests among tests performed varied between 2% and 3%. Among MSM clients, the median annual number of anal intercourse (AI) partners was three. Roughly 30% of all MSM clients had at least one unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) experience in the previous 12 months with a partner of different/unknown HIV status.The main reason for testing in 2007, 2008, and 2009 was "sexual risk exposure" (~40%), followed by "routine" testing (~30%) and "condom stopping in the beginning of a new steady relationship" (~10%). Clients who came to the facility after a sexual risk exposure, compared to clients who came for "routine testing" or "condom stopping" reasons, had the highest number of AI partners in the previous 12 months, were more likely to have had UAI with a partner of different/unknown HIV status in the previous 12 months (respectively 57.3%, 12.5%, 23.5%), more likely to have had an STI diagnosed in the past (41.6%, 32.2%, 22.9%), and more likely to report recent feelings of sadness or depression (42.6%; 32.8%, 18.5%). CONCLUSION: Many of Checkpoint's clients reported elevated sexual risk exposure and risk factors, and the annual proportion of new HIV cases in the facility is stable. This VCT facility attracts the intended population and appears to be a useful tool contributing to the fight against the HIV epidemic among MSM in Switzerland.

Innate Immune Sensing of Fusarium culmorum by Mouse Dendritic Cells.

Chronic inhalation of grain dust is associated with asthma and chronic bronchitis in grain worker populations. Exposure to fungal particles was postulated to be an important etiologic agent of these pathologies. Fusarium species frequently colonize grain and straw and produce a wide array of mycotoxins that impact human health, necessitating an evaluation of risk exposure by inhalation of Fusarium and its consequences on immune responses. Data showed that Fusarium culmorum is a frequent constituent of aerosols sampled during wheat harvesting in the Vaud region of Switzerland. The aim of this study was to examine cytokine/chemokine responses and innate immune sensing of F. culmorum in bone-marrow-derived dendritic cells and macrophages. Overall, dendritic cells and macrophages responded to F. culmorum spores but not to its secreted components (i.e., mycotoxins) by releasing large amounts of macrophage inflammatory protein (MIP)-1α, MIP-1β, MIP-2, monocyte chemoattractant protein (MCP)-1, RANTES, and interleukin (IL)-12p40, intermediate amounts of tumor necrosis factor (TNF), IL-6, IL-12p70, IL-33, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF), and interferon gamma-induced protein (IP-10), but no detectable amounts of IL-4 and IL-10, a pattern of mediators compatible with generation of Th1 or Th17 antifungal protective immune responses rather than with Th2-dependent allergic responses. The sensing of F. culmorum spores by dendritic cells required dectin-1, the main pattern recognition receptor involved in β-glucans detection, but likely not MyD88 and TRIF-dependent Toll-like receptors. Taken together, our results indicate that F. culmorum stimulates potently innate immune cells in a dectin-1-dependent manner, suggesting that inhalation of F. culmorum from grain dust may promote immune-related airway diseases in exposed worker populations.

The effects of derivative use on equity fund performance

Investing in mutual funds has become more popular than ever and the amount of money invested in mutual funds registered in Finland has hit its all-time high. Mutual funds provide a relatively low-cost method for private investors to invest in stock market and achieve diversified portfolios. In finance there is always a tradeoff between risk and return, where higher expected returns can usually be achieved only by taking higher risks. Diversifying the portfolio gets rid some of the risk but systematic risk cannot be diversified away. These risks can be managed by hedging the investments with derivatives. The use of derivatives should improve the performance of the portfolios using them compared to the funds that don’t. However, previous studies have shown that the risk exposure and return performance of derivative users does not considerably differ from nonusers. The purpose of this study is to examine how the use of derivatives affects the performance of equity funds. The funds studied were 155 equity funds registered in Finland in 2013. Empirical research was done by studying the derivative use of the funds during a 6-year period between 2008–2013. The performance of the funds was studied quantitatively by using several different performance measures used in mutual fund industry; Sharpe Ratio, Treynor Ratio, Jensen's alpha, Sortino Ratio, M2 and Omega Ratio. The effect of derivative use on funds' performance was studied by using a dummy variable and comparing performance measures of derivative-users and nonusers. The differences in performance measures between the two groups were analyzed with statistical tests. The hypothesis was that funds' derivative use should improve their performance relative to the funds that don't use them. The results of this study are in line with previous studies that state that the use of derivatives does not improve mutual funds' performance. When performance was measured with Jensen's alpha, funds that did not use derivatives performed better than the ones that used them. When measured with other performance measures, the results didn’t differ between two groups.

Privacidad e intimidad en las interacciones virtuales

El presente trabajo es una revisión de la literatura de investigación en Ciberpsicología centrada en las categorías de privacidad, intimidad, identidad y vulnerabilidad, y en la forma como estas se desarrollan en las redes sociales virtuales. Los principales hallazgos indicaron que son los jóvenes quienes dedican gran parte de su tiempo a interactuar en dichas redes, y a su vez, dado el manejo que les dan, tienen mayor exposición ante los posibles riesgos de estas, como el matoneo, las conductas auto lesivas, la explotación sexual y los trastornos de la alimentación. Se describen estos riesgos y se proponen posibles soluciones.

Verificación de los niveles de atenuación de dos tipos de protectores auditivos tipo copa en trabajadores de una empresa del sector Hidrocarburos. Barrancabermeja-Colombia 2013.

El presente estudio se realizó con el fin de verificar los niveles de atenuación de dos tipos de protectores auditivos tipo copa, bajo condiciones reales de operación en una empresa del sector hidrocarburos en Colombia. Esta verificación se llevó a cabo determinando las diferencias existentes entre los niveles de atenuación establecidos por el fabricante (NRR Teórico), los niveles de atenuación ajustados de acuerdo a la metodología propuesta por NIOSH (NRR Ajustado) y los niveles de atenuación obtenidos experimentalmente (NRR Experimental). El estudio se desarrolló sobre la evaluación de los niveles equivalentes de presión sonora, mediante dosimetrías de doble canal, valorando los niveles de ruido al interior y al exterior del pabellón auditivo de forma simultánea. Los valores obtenidos en las mediciones se ajustaron a los criterios establecidos en la norma ISO 11904 parte 1 considerando la estimación de niveles de inmisión sonora mediante técnica MIRE (Microphone In a Real Ear) corregidos a condiciones de campo libre. Los resultados obtenidos permitieron establecer diferencias significativas entre los niveles de atenuación teóricos, ajustados y experimentales, aspecto que brinda oportunidades de mejora cuando se trata de seleccionar y mantener elementos de protección personal auditiva como estrategia preventiva primaria en el propósito de la disminución de la probabilidad de ocurrencia de hipoacusia neurosensorial inducida por ruido en el lugar de trabajo.

A Gradient-Type Method For Real-Time State Estimation Of Water Distribution Networks

Drinking water distribution networks risk exposure to malicious or accidental contamination. Several levels of responses are conceivable. One of them consists to install a sensor network to monitor the system on real time. Once a contamination has been detected, this is also important to take appropriate counter-measures. In the SMaRT-OnlineWDN project, this relies on modeling to predict both hydraulics and water quality. An online model use makes identification of the contaminant source and simulation of the contaminated area possible. The objective of this paper is to present SMaRT-OnlineWDN experience and research results for hydraulic state estimation with sampling frequency of few minutes. A least squares problem with bound constraints is formulated to adjust demand class coefficient to best fit the observed values at a given time. The criterion is a Huber function to limit the influence of outliers. A Tikhonov regularization is introduced for consideration of prior information on the parameter vector. Then the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is applied that use derivative information for limiting the number of iterations. Confidence intervals for the state prediction are also given. The results are presented and discussed on real networks in France and Germany.

Ensaios em macroeconometria e finanças

This thesis is composed of three essays referent to the subjects of macroeconometrics and Önance. In each essay, which corresponds to one chapter, the objective is to investigate and analyze advanced econometric techniques, applied to relevant macroeconomic questions, such as the capital mobility hypothesis and the sustainability of public debt. A Önance topic regarding portfolio risk management is also investigated, through an econometric technique used to evaluate Value-at-Risk models. The Örst chapter investigates an intertemporal optimization model to analyze the current account. Based on Campbell & Shillerís (1987) approach, a Wald test is conducted to analyze a set of restrictions imposed to a VAR used to forecast the current account. The estimation is based on three di§erent procedures: OLS, SUR and the two-way error decomposition of Fuller & Battese (1974), due to the presence of global shocks. A note on Granger causality is also provided, which is shown to be a necessary condition to perform the Wald test with serious implications to the validation of the model. An empirical exercise for the G-7 countries is presented, and the results substantially change with the di§erent estimation techniques. A small Monte Carlo simulation is also presented to investigate the size and power of the Wald test based on the considered estimators. The second chapter presents a study about Öscal sustainability based on a quantile autoregression (QAR) model. A novel methodology to separate periods of nonstationarity from stationary ones is proposed, which allows one to identify trajectories of public debt that are not compatible with Öscal sustainability. Moreover, such trajectories are used to construct a debt ceiling, that is, the largest value of public debt that does not jeopardize long-run Öscal sustainability. An out-of-sample forecast of such a ceiling is also constructed, and can be used by policy makers interested in keeping the public debt on a sustainable path. An empirical exercise by using Brazilian data is conducted to show the applicability of the methodology. In the third chapter, an alternative backtest to evaluate the performance of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models is proposed. The econometric methodology allows one to directly test the overall performance of a VaR model, as well as identify periods of an increased risk exposure, which seems to be a novelty in the literature. Quantile regressions provide an appropriate environment to investigate VaR models, since they can naturally be viewed as a conditional quantile function of a given return series. An empirical exercise is conducted for daily S&P500 series, and a Monte Carlo simulation is also presented, revealing that the proposed test might exhibit more power in comparison to other backtests.

Os investidores reagem à composição das carteiras de fundos?: evidências da crise de 2008

O principal objetivo desse trabalho é identificar o impacto da composição das carteiras dos fundos sobre sua captação no mercado brasileiro. A hipótese central é que, em períodos de crise, a exacerbação da assimetria de informação acerca da qualidade dos ativos faça com que a existência de ativos com exposição ao risco de crédito privado (principalmente Certificados de Depósitos Bancários - CDBs) impacte negativamente a captação. Para testar essa hipótese foram realizadas análises de regressão em painel com dados mensais de fundos de renda fixa e referenciado, exclusivos e não exclusivos, entre 2007 e 2010. Aprofundando a análise, segregaram-se os CDBs entre aqueles emitidos por bancos grandes e médios-pequenos. Dentre os fundos não-exclusivos, encontrou-se que a proporção de CDBs na carteira impactou negativamente a captação de fundos referenciados, ao passo que a presença de CDBs de bancos médios e pequenos impactou negativamente a captação entre os fundos de renda fixa. Nos fundos exclusivos, em que se supõe que o cotista tenha maior poder de intervenção na gestão, não se identificou relação significativa entre exposição a risco de crédito e captação

Avaliação sorológica de patógenos transmitidos por carrapatos em cães urbanos e rurais do estado do Paraná, Brasil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Parametric VaR with goodness-of-fit tests based on EDF statistics for extreme returns

Parametric VaR (Value-at-Risk) is widely used due to its simplicity and easy calculation. However, the normality assumption, often used in the estimation of the parametric VaR, does not provide satisfactory estimates for risk exposure. Therefore, this study suggests a method for computing the parametric VaR based on goodness-of-fit tests using the empirical distribution function (EDF) for extreme returns, and compares the feasibility of this method for the banking sector in an emerging market and in a developed one. The paper also discusses possible theoretical contributions in related fields like enterprise risk management (ERM). © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Risco de desordens músculo-esqueléticas nos membros superiores de graduandos de Odontologia

Este estudo teve por objetivo avaliar o risco de desenvolvimento de desordens músculo-esqueléticas nos membros superiores de graduandos de Odontologia considerando as variáveis sexo, tipo de procedimento clínico executado, região da boca tratada e prática do trabalho a quatro mãos. Foram avaliados alunos, de ambos os sexos, matriculados no oitavo semestre do curso de graduação da Faculdade de Odontologia de Araraquara - UNESP. Foram efetuadas tomadas fotográficas durante a realização de 283 procedimentos clínicos, utilizando-se máquina fotogrática digital. Para análise das fotografias, utilizou-se o programa Image Tool. As posturas de trabalho adotadas por cada estudante na sua atuação como “operador” foram observadas pelo método RULA (Rapid Upper Limb Assessment), o qual inclui o uso de um diagrama de análise de postura do indivíduo e três tabelas de escores que permitem a avaliação da exposição aos fatores de risco para o desenvolvimento de desordens músculo-esqueléticas. As fotografias foram analisadas por um professor da área de ergonomia calibrado (_=0,91). Para cada procedimento foi atribuído um escore de risco final. Os procedimentos executados foram classificados em duas grandes categorias: procedimentos preparatórios e procedimentos restauradores/reabilitadores. Os dados de risco de desordens músculoesqueléticas nos membros superiores foram apurados, e sua prevalência foi estimada por ponto e por intervalo de confiança de 95%. O estudo da associação do risco de desordens músculo-esqueléticas às variáveis de interesse foi realizado por meio do Teste de Qui-quadrado (_ 2). O nível de significância adotado foi de 5%. Observou-se que na maioria dos procedimentos executados o risco de desordens músculo-esqueléticas segundo a classificação... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo)

Clinical, epidemiological and molecular features of the HIV-1 subtype C and recombinant forms that are circulating in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background: The city of Sao Paulo has the highest AIDS case rate, with nearly 60% in Brazil. Despite, several studies involving molecular epidemiology, lack of data regarding a large cohort study has not been published from this city. Objectives: This study aimed to describe the HIV-1 subtypes, recombinant forms and drug resistance mutations, according to subtype, with emphasis on subtype C and BC recombinants in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Study design: RNA was extracted from the plasma samples of 302 HIV-1-seropositive subjects, of which 211 were drug-naive and 82 were exposed to ART. HIV-1 partial pol region sequences were used in phylogenetic analyses for subtyping and identification of drug resistance mutations. The envelope gene of subtype C and BC samples was also sequenced. Results: From partial pol gene analyses, 239 samples (79.1%) were assigned as subtype B, 23 (7.6%) were F1, 16 (5.3%) were subtype C and 24 (8%) were mosaics (3 CRF28/CRF29-like). The subtype C and BC recombinants were mainly identified in drug-naive patients (72.7%) and the heterosexual risk exposure category (86.3%), whereas for subtype B, these values were 69.9% and 57.3%, respectively (p = 0.97 and p = 0.015, respectively). An increasing trend of subtype C and BC recombinants was observed (p < 0.01). Conclusion: The HIV-1 subtype C and CRFs seem to have emerged over the last few years in the city of Sao Paulo, principally among the heterosexual population. These findings may have an impact on preventive measures and vaccine development in Brazil.