Intelligent execution monitoring and error analysis in planning involving processes

An intelligent agent, operating in an external world which cannot be fully described in its internal world model, must be able to monitor the success of a previously generated plan and to respond to any errors which may have occurred. The process of error analysis requires the ability to reason in an expert fashion about time and about processes occurring in the world. Reasoning about time is needed to deal with causality. Reasoning about processes is needed since the direct effects of a plan action can be completely specified when the plan is generated, but the indirect effects cannot. For example, the action `open tap' leads with certainty to `tap open', whereas whether there will be a fluid flow and how long it might last is more difficult to predict. The majority of existing planning systems cannot handle these kinds of reasoning, thus limiting their usefulness. This thesis argues that both kinds of reasoning require a complex internal representation of the world. The use of Qualitative Process Theory and an interval-based representation of time are proposed as a representation scheme for such a world model. The planning system which was constructed has been tested on a set of realistic planning scenarios. It is shown that even simple planning problems, such as making a cup of coffee, require extensive reasoning if they are to be carried out successfully. The final Chapter concludes that the planning system described does allow the correct solution of planning problems involving complex side effects, which planners up to now have been unable to solve.

Seasonal dynamic pattern analysis in service of climate change research. A methodical case-study - monitoring and simulation based on an aquatic insect community

Our aim was to approach an important and well-investigable phenomenon – connected to a relatively simple but real field situation – in such a way, that the results of field observations could be directly comparable with the predictions of a simulation model-system which uses a simple mathematical apparatus and to simultaneously gain such a hypothesis-system, which creates the theoretical opportunity for a later experimental series of studies. As a phenomenon of the study, we chose the seasonal coenological changes of aquatic and semiaquatic Heteroptera community. Based on the observed data, we developed such an ecological model-system, which is suitable for generating realistic patterns highly resembling to the observed temporal patterns, and by the help of which predictions can be given to alternative situations of climatic circumstances not experienced before (e.g. climate changes), and furthermore; which can simulate experimental circumstances. The stable coenological state-plane, which was constructed based on the principle of indirect ordination is suitable for unified handling of data series of monitoring and simulation, and also fits for their comparison. On the state-plane, such deviations of empirical and model-generated data can be observed and analysed, which could otherwise remain hidden.

Social sustainability initiatives in cocoa supply chains in Africa:an analysis of sustainability reporting of world's major chocolatiers

This research paper focuses on the self-declared initiatives of the four largest chocolate companies to tackle social problems within the context of establishing a sustainable supply chain. After the literature review of sustainability, supply chain management, and cocoa farming, this paper gives an assessment of the extant practices of the chocolatiers and makes a comparative analysis based on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and Sustainability Reports. This paper uses a case study approach based on secondary-data. A roadmap and benchmarking of social sustainability initiatives were conducted for the supply chain management activities of the world's four largest chocolatiers. This paper analyses the extant sustainability practices of the chocolatiers and offers a model framework for comparison of the measures taken. This paper is based on self-declared secondary data. There is a chance that some practices were not documented by the case companies; or that companies claim what they don't actually do. This paper provides a framework for agricultural businesses to compare their sustainability efforts and improve the performance of their supply chains. Originality and value of this research reside in terms of both literature and methodology. The framework for analysing the social sustainability aspects of agricultural supply chains is original and gives an up-to-date view of sustainability practices. The use of secondary data to compare self-declared initiatives is also a novel approach to business sustainability research.

Monitoring and conservation of the largest loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting population in Africa: successes and challenges.

[EN] The Republic of Cape Verde is situated about 500 km off the coast of Senegal, West Africa. The islands of Sal, Boa Vista and Maio constitute the Eastern group and harbour the most important nesting beaches for loggerhead turtles in the Archipelago. During 1998-2004 nesting seasons, fieldwork has been focused on the eastern beaches of Boa Vista and, occasionally, in other beaches of Boa Vista and in the islands of Maio, Sal and Santa Luzia. The main study area includes a total extension of 3.1 km of suitable nesting beaches. All through these years, a tagging program has been carried out, alongside recording of biological data and monitoring of nests.

Whole of life cycle cost analysis in bridge rehabilitation

The report presents a methodology for whole of life cycle cost analysis of alternative treatment options for bridge structures, which require rehabilitation. The methodology has been developed after a review of current methods and establishing that a life cycle analysis based on a probabilistic risk approach has many advantages including the essential ability to consider variability of input parameters. The input parameters for the analysis are identified as initial cost, maintenance, monitoring and repair cost, user cost and failure cost. The methodology utilizes the advanced simulation technique of Monte Carlo simulation to combine a number of probability distributions to establish the distribution of whole of life cycle cost. In performing the simulation, the need for a powerful software package, which would work with spreadsheet program, has been identified. After exploring several products on the market, @RISK software has been selected for the simulation. In conclusion, the report presents a typical decision making scenario considering two alternative treatment options.

Monitoring and analysis of internet traffic targeting unused address spaces

Today’s evolving networks are experiencing a large number of different attacks ranging from system break-ins, infection from automatic attack tools such as worms, viruses, trojan horses and denial of service (DoS). One important aspect of such attacks is that they are often indiscriminate and target Internet addresses without regard to whether they are bona fide allocated or not. Due to the absence of any advertised host services the traffic observed on unused IP addresses is by definition unsolicited and likely to be either opportunistic or malicious. The analysis of large repositories of such traffic can be used to extract useful information about both ongoing and new attack patterns and unearth unusual attack behaviors. However, such an analysis is difficult due to the size and nature of the collected traffic on unused address spaces. In this dissertation, we present a network traffic analysis technique which uses traffic collected from unused address spaces and relies on the statistical properties of the collected traffic, in order to accurately and quickly detect new and ongoing network anomalies. Detection of network anomalies is based on the concept that an anomalous activity usually transforms the network parameters in such a way that their statistical properties no longer remain constant, resulting in abrupt changes. In this dissertation, we use sequential analysis techniques to identify changes in the behavior of network traffic targeting unused address spaces to unveil both ongoing and new attack patterns. Specifically, we have developed a dynamic sliding window based non-parametric cumulative sum change detection techniques for identification of changes in network traffic. Furthermore we have introduced dynamic thresholds to detect changes in network traffic behavior and also detect when a particular change has ended. Experimental results are presented that demonstrate the operational effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach, using both synthetically generated datasets and real network traces collected from a dedicated block of unused IP addresses.

Diagnostic of Rolling Element Bearings with Envelope Analysis in Non-Stationary Conditions

In the field of rolling element bearing diagnostics, envelope analysis has gained in the last years a leading role among the different digital signal processing techniques. The original constraint of constant operating speed has been relaxed thanks to the combination of this technique with the computed order tracking, able to resample signals at constant angular increments. In this way, the field of application of this technique has been extended to cases in which small speed fluctuations occur, maintaining high effectiveness and efficiency. In order to make this algorithm suitable to all industrial applications, the constraint on speed has to be removed completely. In fact, in many applications, the coincidence of high bearing loads, and therefore high diagnostic capability, with acceleration-deceleration phases represents a further incentive in this direction. This chapter presents a procedure for the application of envelope analysis to speed transients. The effect of load variation on the proposed technique will be also qualitatively addressed.

Profiles of illicit drug use during annual key holiday and control periods in Australia: Wastewater analysis in an urban, a semi-rural and a vacation area

AIMS: To examine changes in illicit drug consumption between peak holiday season (23 December-3 January) in Australia and a control period two months later in a coastal urban area, an inland semi-rural area and an island populated predominantly by vacationers during holidays. DESIGN: Analysis of representative daily composite wastewater samples collected from the inlet of the major wastewater treatment plant in each area. SETTING: Three wastewater treatment plants. PARTICIPANTS: Wastewater treatment plants serviced approximately 350, 000 persons in the urban area, 120,000 in the semi-rural area and 1100-2400 on the island. MEASUREMENTS: Drug residues were analysed using liquid chromatography coupled to a tandem mass spectrometer. Per capita drug consumption was estimated. Changes in drug use were quantified using Hedges' g. FINDINGS: During the holidays, cannabis consumption in the semi-rural area declined (g = -2.8) as did methamphetamine (-0.8), whereas cocaine (+1.5) and ecstasy (+1.6) use increased. In the urban area, consumption of all drugs increased during holidays (cannabis +1.6, cocaine +1.2, ecstasy +0.8 and methamphetamine +0.3). In the vacation area, methamphetamine (+0.7), ecstasy (+0.7) and cocaine (+1.1) use increased, but cannabis (-0.5) use decreased during holiday periods. CONCLUSIONS: While the peak holiday season in Australia is perceived as a period of increased drug use, this is not uniform across all drugs and areas. Substantial declines in drug use in the semi-rural area contrasted with substantial increases in urban and vacation areas. Per capita drug consumption in the vacation area was equivalent to that in the urban area, implying that these locations merit particular attention for drug use monitoring and harm minimisation measures.

Illicit drug use between an annual key holiday and a control period: Wastewater analysis in a semi-rural, an urban and a vacation area

Introduction and Aims: Holiday periods are potentially a time for increased substance use as social events and private parties are more common. Data on community illicit drug consumption during holiday periods are limited. Besides existing methods for determining drug use, such as population surveys, one emerging method is to measure illicit drugs and/or their metabolites in wastewater samples. This study examined the change in consumption of cannabis, methamphetamine, cocaine and 3,4- methylenedioxymethamphetamine in three different types of areas (an inland semi-rural area, a coastal urban area and a vacation island) with respect to holiday times. Design and Methods: Samples were collected at the inlet of the major wastewater treatment plant in each area during a key annual holiday (i.e. the summer holiday including Christmas and New Year) and control period. Illicit drug residues in the daily composited samples were measured by liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. Results: Drug use varied substantially among the three areas within each monitoring period as well as between the holiday and control period within each area. Use consistently increased and peaked over New Year particularly for cocaine and 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine whereas cannabis and methamphetamine were relatively less subjected to holiday times in all the areas. Discussion and Conclusions: Wastewater sampling and analysis provides higher spatio-temporal resolution than national surveys and supplements drug epidemiology studies originating primary in metropolitan locations. Such data is essential for policy makers to plan potential intervention strategies associated with these illicit substances in regional areas and other settings besides urban areas in the future.

Estimating daily and diurnal variations of illicit drug use in Hong Kong: A pilot study of using wastewater analysis in an Asian metropolitan city

The measurement of illicit drug metabolites in raw wastewater is increasingly being adopted as an approach to objectively monitor population-level drug use, and is an effective complement to traditional epidemiological methods. As such, it has been widely applied in western countries. In this study, we utilised this approach to assess drug use patterns over nine days during April 2011 in Hong Kong. Raw wastewater samples were collected from the largest wastewater treatment plant serving a community of approximately 3.5 million people and analysed for excreted drug residues including cocaine, ketamine, methamphetamine, 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) and key metabolites using liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. The overall drug use pattern determined by wastewater analysis was consistent with that have seen amongst people coming into contact with services in relation to substance use; among our target drugs, ketamine (estimated consumption: 1400–1600 mg/day/1000 people) was the predominant drug followed by methamphetamine (180–200 mg/day/1000 people), cocaine (160–180 mg/day/1000 people) and MDMA (not detected). The levels of these drugs were relatively steady throughout the monitoring period. Analysing samples at higher temporal resolution provided data on diurnal variations of drug residue loads. Elevated ratios of cocaine to benzoylecgonine were identified unexpectedly in three samples during the evening and night, providing evidence for potential dumping events of cocaine. This study provides the first application of wastewater analysis to quantitatively evaluate daily drug use in an Asian metropolitan community. Our data reinforces the benefit of wastewater monitoring to health and law enforcement authorities for strategic planning and evaluation of drug intervention strategies.

Improved Approach for Analyzing Bromophenols in Seafood Using Stable Isotope Dilution Analysis in Combination with SPME

An analytical method for the measurement of five naturally occurring bromophenols of sensory relevance in seafood (barramundi and prawns) is presented. The method combines simultaneous distillation−extraction followed by alkaline back extraction of a hexane extract and subsequent acetylation of the bromophenols. Analysis of the bromophenol acetates was accomplished by headspace solid phase microextraction and gas chromatography−mass spectrometry using selected ion monitoring. The addition of 13C6 bromophenol stable isotope internal standards for each of the five congeners studied permitted the accurate quantitation of 2-bromophenol, 4-bromophenol, 2,6-dibromophenol, 2,4-dibromophenol, and 2,4,6-tribromophenol down to a limit of quantification of 0.05 ng/g of fish flesh. The method indicated acceptable precision and repeatability and excellent linearity over the typical concentration range of these compounds in seafood (0.5−50 ng/g). The analytical method was applied to determine the concentration of bromophenols in a range of farmed and wild barramundi and prawns and was also used to monitor bromophenol uptake in a pilot feeding trial.

Evidence that dicot-infecting mastreviruses are particularly prone to inter-species recombination and have likely been circulating in Australia for longer than in Africa and the Middle East

Viruses of the genus Mastrevirus (family Geminiviridae) are transmitted by leafhoppers and infect either mono- or dicotyledonous plants. Here we have determined the full length sequences of 49 dicot-infecting mastrevirus isolates sampled in Australia, Eritrea, India, Iran, Pakistan, Syria, Turkey and Yemen. Comprehensive analysis of all available dicot-infecting mastrevirus sequences showed the diversity of these viruses in Australia to be greater than in the rest of their known range, consistent with earlier studies, and that, in contrast with the situation in monocot-infecting mastreviruses, detected inter-species recombination events outnumbered intra-species recombination events. Consistent with Australia having the greatest diversity of known dicot-infecting mastreviruses phylogeographic analyses indicating the most plausible scheme for the spread of these viruses to their present locations, suggest that most recent common ancestor of these viruses is likely nearer Australia than it is to the other regions investigated.

Rapid monitoring of nitrogen in mango trees

Nitrogen (N) is an essential nutrient in mango, influencing both productivity and fruit quality. In Australian mango orchards, tree N is traditionally assessed once a year at the dormant pre-flowering stage using laboratory analysis of leaf N. This single assessment is insufficient to determine tree N status at all stages of the annual phenological cycle. Development of a field-based rapid N test would allow more frequent monitoring of tree N status and improved fertiliser management. These experiments examined the accuracy and useability of several devices used in other horticultural crops to rapidly assess mango leaf N in the field; the Konica Minolta 'SPAD-502 chlorophyll meter', Horiba 'Cardy Meter' and the Merck 'RQflex 10.' Regression and correlation analyses were used to determine the relationship between total leaf N and the measurements from the rapid test devices. The relationship between the chlorophyll index measured by the SPAD-502 meter and leaf N was highly significant at late fruit set (R 2=0.72, n=40) and post-harvest (R 2=0.81, n=40) stages and significant at the flowering stage (R 2=0.51, n=40) in the cultivar 'Kensington Pride', indicating the device can be used to rapidly assess mango leaf N in the field. Correlation analysis indicated the relationship between petiole sap measured with the Cardy or Merck devices and leaf N was non-significant.