Long range forecasts of the numbers of Helicoverpa punctigera and H-armigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia using the Southern Oscillation Index and the Sea Surface Temperature

The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hubner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6-15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

A note on the decomposition of the health concentration index

In recent work, the concentration index has been widely used as a measure of income-related health inequality. The purpose of this note is to illustrate two different methods for decomposing the overall health concentration index using data collected from a Short Form (SF-36) survey of the general Australian population conducted in 1995. For simplicity, we focus on the physical functioning scale of the SF-36. Firstly we examine decomposition 'by component' by separating the concentration index for the physical functioning scale into the ten items on which it is based. The results show that the items contribute differently to the overall inequality measure, i.e. two of the items contributed 13% and 5%, respectively, to the overall measure. Second, to illustrate the 'by subgroup' method we decompose the concentration index by employment status. This involves separating the population into two groups: individuals currently in employment; and individuals not currently employed. We find that the inequality between these groups is about five times greater than the inequality within each group. These methods provide insights into the nature of inequality that can be used to inform policy design to reduce income related health inequalities. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Early life course determinants of young adults' gambling behaviour. An Australian Longitudinal Study

Problem gambling represents a public concern as both a social and health issue. Available evidence shows problem gambling is associated with a range of psychological disorders, criminality, and disruption to families. While gambling itself may represent a pleasurable pursuit for the majority, for a proportion, gambling-related activities may assume many of the characteristics of an addiction and have the capacity to undermine individuals� mental and physical health, social relationships, financial independence, as well as the financial and psychological wellbeing of their families and/or friends. The objectives of this study are based on the need to increase our understanding of gambling behaviour, its antecedents, as well its influence on the health and wellbeing of gamblers and their families. One of the most important and unresolved issues in gambling research is whether the mental health and social/family correlates of gambling precede or follow gambling behaviour. This report focuses on this issue.

An evaluation of the changes in malocclusion index scores over a 25-year period

Background: The measured values of specific traits of occlusion may be subject to significant change due to growth and maturation of the dentofacial structures. Some traits may show improvement while others may show deterioration. Rarely is there an opportunity to examine a sample of occlusions 25 years after the acquisition of the original set of records. This study examines the changes in traits of occlusion in a sample of 46 subjects who were originally examined between 1971-1973 and for whom records were again obtained in 1998. Methods: The 46 patients were a sub-group of a previously selected randomised school-based sample and study models obtained in 1971-1973 were still available. New models for each patient were obtained in 1998. Of the 46 subjects, only eight had received orthodontic treatment. Results: Assessments of the changes in specific traits were made using the methods proposed in the Harry L Draker, California Modification (HLD Cal Mod) index. This simple index was chosen because the main component traits were well defined and, when analysed separately, reflected changes with time. The total index score gave a broad indication of the global changes in the individual's occlusion. The five basic traits of the HLD index include overjet, overbite, openbite, mandibular protrusion and labio-lingual spread. Three additional traits (ectopic eruption, anterior crowding and posterior crossbite) are used in the HLD Cal Mod index. These traits provided a useful reflection of occlusal changes with time. Measurements were made with reference to specifications and the details outlined in the HLD Cal Mod protocol. The results revealed an increase in total index scores over time with a significant increase in lower labio-lingual spread associated with an increased score in anterior crowding. Overjet and overbite, however, displayed a significant decrease with time. Conclusions: These findings are in keeping with previous studies and highlight the importance of time as a significant issue in the assessment of occlusion.

Genetic and non-genetic factors affecting birth-weight and adult body mass index

Birthweight affects neonatal mortality and morbidity and has been used as a marker of foetal undernutrition in studies of prenatal effects on adult characteristics. It is potentially influenced by genetic and environmental influences on the mother, and effects of foetal genotype, which is partially derived from the maternal genotype. Interpretations of variation in birthweight and associated characteristics as being due to prenatal environment ignore other possible modes of materno-foetal transmission. Subjects were adult twins recruited through the Australian Twin Registry, aged 17 to 87 years, and the sample comprised 1820 men and 4048 women. Twins reported their own birthweight as part of a health questionnaire. Body Mass Index (BMI) was calculated from self-reports of height and weight. Correlations between co-twins' birthweights were high for both monozygotic (r = 0.77) and dizygotic (r = 0.67) pairs, leading to substantial estimates of shared environmental effects (56% of variance) with significant additive genetic (23%) and non-shared environmental (21%) components. Adult BMI was mainly influenced by genetic factors, both additive (36% of variance) and nonadditive (35%). The correlation between birthweight and BMI was positive, in that heavier babies became on average more obese adults. A bivariate model of birthweight and adult BMI showed significant positive genetic (rg = 0.16, p = 0.005) and environmental (re = 0.08, p = 0.000011) correlations. Intra-uterine environmental or perinatal influences shared by cotwins exercise a strong influence on birthweight, but the factors which affect both birthweight and adult BMI are partly genetic and partly non-shared environmental.

Predictors of non-response to a questionnaire survey of a volunteer twin panel: Findings from the Australian 1989 twin cohort

Questionnaire surveys, while more economical, typically achieve poorer response rates than interview surveys. We used data from a national volunteer cohort of young adult twins, who were scheduled for assessment by questionnaire in 1989 and by interview in 1996-2000, to identify predictors of questionnaire non-response. Out of a total of 8536 twins, 5058 completed the questionnaire survey (59% response rate), and 6255 completed a telephone interview survey conducted a decade later (73% response rate). Multinomial logit models were fitted to the interview data to identify socioeconomic, psychiatric and health behavior correlates of non-response in the earlier questionnaire survey. Male gender, education below University level, and being a dizygotic rather than monozygotic twin, all predicted reduced likelihood of participating in the questionnaire survey. Associations between questionnaire response status and psychiatric history and health behavior variables were modest, with history of alcohol dependence and childhood conduct disorder predicting decreased probability of returning a questionnaire, and history of smoking and heavy drinking more weakly associated with non-response. Body-mass index showed no association with questionnaire non-response. Despite a poor response rate to the self-report questionnaire survey, we found only limited sampling biases for most variables. While not appropriate for studies where socioeconomic variables are critical, it appears that survey by questionnaire, with questionnaire administration by telephone to non-responders, will represent a viable strategy for gene-mapping studies requiring that large numbers of relatives be screened.

Dieting and health in young Australian women

This paper examines the prevalence of dieting behaviours and correlates with physical and mental health in young Australian women who are participants in the Australian Longitudinal Stud of Women's Health. A total of 14 686 women aged 18-23 years, randomly selected from the National Medicare database, with over-sampling from rural and remote areas, responded to a questionnaire seeking dieting and health information. The results showed that 66.5 percent of the women had a BMI within the healthy weight range (18- < 25 kg/m(2)). However only 21.6 percent of these women were happy with their weight and almost half (46 percent) had dieted to lose weight in the last year (also one in five who had a BMI < 18.5 kg/m(2)). High frequency of dieting (rather than dieting per se) and earlier dieting onset were associated with poorer physical and mental health (including depression), more disordered eating (bingeing and purging), extreme weight and shape dissatisfaction and more frequent general health problems. The results suggest that there is a need for programmes that will enhance self esteem and weight/shape acceptance and promote more appropriate strategies for maintenance of healthy weight. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association.

Scoring occupational categories for social research: A review of current practice, with Australian examples

The scoring of occupational categories has along history. After reviewing the historical background, we develop and discuss the properties of two new Australian scales based on current theorising in stratification research. The first is based on the operation of the labour market and scores occupations to reflect their central role in converting educational credentials into market income. The second is based on patterns of social interaction and scores occupations to reflect the choices that people make in marriage markets. While these two scales are not theoretically or empirically equivalent, they are closely related and provide equally valid, but alternative, ways of measuring the underlying stratification order of modern societies.

Experimental infection of Australian brushtail possums, Trichosurus vulpecula (Phalangeridae : Marsupialia), with Ross River and Barmah Forest viruses by use of a natural mosquito vector system

Brushtail possums, Trichosurus vulpecula Kerr, were experimentally infected with Ross River (RR) or Barmah Forest (BF) virus by Aedes vigilax (Skuse) mosquitoes. Eight of 10 animals exposed to RR virus developed neutralizing antibody, and 3 possums developed high viremia for < 48 hr after infection, sufficient to infect recipient mosquitoes. Two of 10 animals exposed to BF virus developed neutralizing antibody. Both infected possums maintained detectable neutralizing antibody to BF for at least 45 days after infection (log neutralization index > 2.0 at 45 days). Eight possums did not develop neutralizing antibody to BF despite exposure to infected mosquitoes. These results suggest that T. vulpecula may potentially act as a reservoir species for RR in urban areas. However, T. vulpecula infected with BF do not develop viremia sufficient to infect mosquitoes and are unlikely to be important hosts for BF.

Relationships between nutrition screening checklists and the health and well-being of older Australian women

Objectives: To examine associations between nutrition screening checklists and the health of older women. Design: Cross-sectional postal survey including measures of health and health service utilisation, as well as the Australian Nutrition Screening Initiative (ANSI), adapted from the Nutrition Screening Initiative (NSI). Setting: Australia, 1996. Subjects: In total, 12 939 women aged 70-75 years randomly selected as part of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Results: Responses to individual items in the ANSI checklist, and ANSI and NSI scores, were associated with measures of health and health service utilisation. Women with high ANSI and NSI scores had poorer physical and mental health, higher health care utilisation and were less likely to be in the acceptable weight range. The performance of an unweighted score (TSI) was also examined and showed similar results. Whereas ANSI classified 30% of the women as 'high-risk', only 13% and 12% were classified as 'high-risk' by the NSI and TSI, respectively. However, for identifying women with body mass index outside the acceptable range, sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values for all of these checklists were less than 60%. Conclusions: Higher scores on both the ANSI and NSI are associated with poorer health. The simpler unweighted method of scoring the ANSI (TSI) showed better discrimination for the identification of 'at risk' women than the weighted ANSI method. The predictive value of individual items and the checklist scores need to be examined longitudinally.

Spatial and temporal patterns in Australian wheat yield and their relationship with ENSO

Spatial and temporal variability in wheat production in Australia is dominated by rainfall occurrence. The length of historical production records is inadequate, however, to analyse spatial and temporal patterns conclusively. In this study we used modelling and simulation to identify key spatial patterns in Australian wheat yield, identify groups of years in the historical record in which spatial patterns were similar, and examine association of those wheat yield year groups with indicators of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A simple stress index model was trained on 19 years of Australian Bureau of Statistics shire yield data (1975-93). The model was then used to simulate shire yield from 1901 to 1999 for all wheat-producing shires. Principal components analysis was used to determine the dominating spatial relationships in wheat yield among shires. Six major components of spatial variability were found. Five of these represented near spatially independent zones across the Australian wheatbelt that demonstrated coherent temporal (annual) variability in wheat yield. A second orthogonal component was required to explain the temporal variation in New South Wales. The principal component scores were used to identify high- and low-yielding years in each zone. Year type groupings identified in this way were tested for association with indicators of ENSO. Significant associations were found for all zones in the Australian wheatbelt. Associations were as strong or stronger when ENSO indicators preceding the wheat season (April-May phases of the Southern Oscillation Index) were used rather than indicators based on classification during the wheat season. Although this association suggests an obvious role for seasonal climate forecasting in national wheat crop forecasting, the discriminatory power of the ENSO indicators, although significant, was not strong. By examining the historical years forming the wheat yield analog sets within each zone, it may be possible to identify novel climate system or ocean-atmosphere features that may be causal and, hence, most useful in improving seasonal forecasting schemes.

NEW Solutions: An Australian health promotion programme for people with mental illness

The prevalence of people who are overweight or obese is continuing to rise. This is a key risk indicator of preventable morbidity and mortality resulting from many diseases. The increase in the number of obese people is associated with dietary practices and a reduction in physical activity. There is a need to implement strategies for the reduction of obesity in at-risk groups. People with a mental illness are at high risk of many physical illnesses related to behavioural factors, which include poor diet and lack of exercise. Health promotion programmes need to be incorporated into mental-health services to improve the general health and wellbeing of people with a mental illness. An Australian psychiatric rehabilitation service developed and implemented a health promotion programme, NEW Solutions, which aimed to address issues related to weight gain, dietary practice and physical inactivity.

Sitting time and work patterns as indicators of overweight and obesity in Australian adults

BACKGROUND: Increasing levels of physical inactivity and sedentariness are contributing to the current overweight and obesity epidemic. In this paper, the findings of two recent studies are used to explore the relationships between sitting time ( in transport, work and leisure), physical activity and body mass index (BMI) in two contrasting samples of adult Australians. METHODS: Data on sitting time, physical activity, BMI and a number of demographic characteristics were compared for participants in two studies-529 women who were participants in a preschool health promotion project ('mothers'), and 185 men and women who were involved in a workplace pedometer study ('workers'). Relationships between age, number of children, physical activity, sitting time, BMI, gender and work patterns were explored. Logistic regression was used to predict the likelihood of being overweight or obese, among participants with different physical activity, sitting time and work patterns. RESULTS: The total reported time spent sitting per day ( across all domains) was almost 6 h less among the mothers than the workers (P