Evaluation of techniques for warning of slow-moving vehicles ahead: executive summary. Final report.

Mode of access: Internet.

Accident prediction model for railway-highway interfaces

Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes. Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes.

Understanding the abnormal brain activity in epilepsy as a potential predictor of the onset of an epileptic seizure

The Brain Research Institute (BRI) uses various types of indirect measurements, including EEG and fMRI, to understand and assess brain activity and function. As well as the recovery of generic information about brain function, research also focuses on the utilisation of such data and understanding to study the initiation, dynamics, spread and suppression of epileptic seizures. To assist with the future focussing of this aspect of their research, the BRI asked the MISG 2010 participants to examine how the available EEG and fMRI data and current knowledge about epilepsy should be analysed and interpreted to yield an enhanced understanding about brain activity occurring before, at commencement of, during, and after a seizure. Though the deliberations of the study group were wide ranging in terms of the related matters considered and discussed, considerable progress was made with the following three aspects. (1) The science behind brain activity investigations depends crucially on the quality of the analysis and interpretation of, as well as the recovery of information from, EEG and fMRI measurements. A number of specific methodologies were discussed and formalised, including independent component analysis, principal component analysis, profile monitoring and change point analysis (hidden Markov modelling, time series analysis, discontinuity identification). (2) Even though EEG measurements accurately and very sensitively record the onset of an epileptic event or seizure, they are, from the perspective of understanding the internal initiation and localisation, of limited utility. They only record neuronal activity in the cortical (surface layer) neurons of the brain, which is a direct reflection of the type of electrical activity they have been designed to record. Because fMRI records, through the monitoring of blood flow activity, the location of localised brain activity within the brain, the possibility of combining fMRI measurements with EEG, as a joint inversion activity, was discussed and examined in detail. (3) A major goal for the BRI is to improve understanding about ``when'' (at what time) an epileptic seizure actually commenced before it is identified on an eeg recording, ``where'' the source of this initiation is located in the brain, and ``what'' is the initiator. Because of the general agreement in the literature that, in one way or another, epileptic events and seizures represent abnormal synchronisations of localised and/or global brain activity the modelling of synchronisations was examined in some detail. References C. M. Michel, G. Thut, S. Morand, A. Khateb, A. J. Pegna, R. Grave de Peralta, S. Gonzalez, M. Seeck and T. Landis, Electric source imaging of human brain functions, Brain Res. 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Propagating excitatory potentials within the fear conditioning circuit of the lateral amygdala

In the Hebbian postulate, transiently reverberating cellular ensembles can sustain activity to facilitate temporal coincidence detection. Auditory fear conditioning is believed to be formed in the lateral amygdala (LA), by way of plasticity at auditory input synapses on principal neurons. To evaluate the contribution of LA cellular ensembles in the formation of conditioned fear memories, we investigated the LA micro-circuitry by electrophysiological and anatomical approaches. Polysynaptic field potentials evoked in the LA by stimulation of auditory thalamus(MGm/PIN) or auditory cortical (TE3) afferents were analyzed in vitro and in vivo. In vivo, two potentials were identified following stimulation of either pathway. In vitro, these multiple potentials were revealed by adding 75uM Picrotoxin or 30uM Bicuculine, with the first potential peaking at 15-20 ms, followed by two additional potentials at 20 – 25 and 30 – 35 ms, respectively. These data show single stimulation events can result in multiple synchronized excitatory events within the lateral amygdala. In order to determine underlying mechanisms of auditory signal propagation, LA principal neuron axon collateral trajectory patterns and morphology were analyzed. Neurons were found to have local axon collaterals that are topographically organized. Each axon collateral within the LA totaled 14.1 ± 2.73mm, had 29.8 ± 9.1 branch points and 1870.8 ± 1035 boutons (n=9). Electrophysiological and anatomical data show that a network of extensive axon collaterals within the LA may facilitate preservation of auditory afferent signals.

Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called `early warning signals', and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data.

The use of biomarkers to diagnose the ecological impact of pollutants in Mediterranean rivers

Um assunto que requer atenção é a avaliação ecológica da qualidade da água de ecossistemas de água doce. Uma abordagem que surge como promissora é a biomonitorização baseada em biomarcadores, porque pode avaliar a saúde dos organismos e obter sinais de alerta precoce acerca dos riscos ambientais. Até agora, porém, o uso de biomarcadores em espécies de invertebrados, para diagnosticar danos ecológicos nos rios, é escasso. Por essa razão, existe uma necessidade urgente de desenvolver biomarcadores nas principais espécies de macroinvertebrados dos ecossistemas fluviais que são alvo de estudo. Esta tese tem como objectivo averiguar se as respostas in situ, aliadas aos biomarcadores, podem ser um método viável para avaliar os danos ecológicos de contaminantes em ecossistemas de água doce. Numa primeira fase, os biomarcadores foram usados para averiguar os mecanismos fisiológicos de adaptação genética de clones de Daphnia magna ao pesticida organofosforado fenitrothion. Numa segunda fase, os biomarcadores foram usados como ferramentas de diagnóstico de poluição em zonas ribeirinhas. Estes estudos foram realizados com três espécies-chave de macroinvertebrados: Daphnia magna, Corbicula fluminea e Hydropsyche exocellata, nos rios Besós e Llobregat e no Delta do rio Ebro (NE Espanha). Além disso, foram realizados com animais capturados nos rios, ou com ensaios de transplantes, e foram complementados com índices biológicos de macroinvertebrados e análises químicas da água e dos animais. Como os contaminantes químicos têm vários modos toxicológicos de acção e, portanto, afectam várias respostas bioquímicas dos organismos, foram analisados nas três espécies um conjunto de biomarcadores pertencentes a diferentes vias metabólicas. A abordagem experimental indica que o uso combinado de biomarcadores e outras medidas, tais como índices biológicos e testes in situ, contribui para diagnosticar os efeitos prejudiciais de contaminantes nas comunidades ribeirinhas.

Genotoxicity in humans and indicator species exposed to uranium wastes

Os riscos dos resíduos provenientes da extração do urânio estão associados ao seu conteúdo em metais e radionuclídeos, o que levanta preocupações às autoridades governamentais e à população em geral. As populações humanas e outras espécies animais que vivem em zonas de exploração de urânio poderão estar expostas à radiação através de resíduos e poeiras radioactivase também através de água e alimentos contaminados. A determinação dos riscos deste tipo de contaminantes é feita, principalmente, através da análise química de amostras ambientais, dando-se menos importância à determinação de efeitos biológicos. A determinação de efeitos biológicos causados pela exposição a poluentes, tem-se revelado muito importante para uma avaliação da qualidade ambiental, de modo a providenciar indicações acerca dos efeitos negativos nos seres vivos e também para complementar a informação dada pelas análises químicas de amostras ambientais. Este facto levou ao estabelecimento de biomarcadores, que consistem em respostas biológicas adversas que são específicas de uma exposição a toxinas ambientais, para serem usadas como ferramentas de avaliação da qualidade ambiental. Neste trabalho foram analisadas respostas a nível molecular e celular, em minhocas, ratinhos do campo e humanos, a fim de determinar o risco químico e radiológico dos resíduos provenientes da mina de urânio da Cunha Baixa. Este trabalho teve também como objectivo a clarificação das respostas subjacentes à exposição a metais e radionuclídeos, a fim de permitir o desenvolvimento de potenciais novos biomarcadores moleculares. Durante este trabalho foram efectuados ensaios com minhocas, em que estas foram expostas durante 56 dias a solo contaminado proveniente da mina de urânio da Cunha Baixa, em laboratório e in situ. Durante a exposição foram analisados vários parâmetros, como o crescimento, reprodução, bioacumulação de metais e radionuclídeos, histopatologia, danos no DNA, citotoxicidade e perfil de expressão genética. Para além disso, foram amostrados ratinhos do campo na mina de urânio da Cunha Baixa e numa área de referência para determinação de danos no DNA, níveis de expressão e mutações em genes supressores de tumores e também bioacumulação de metais. Por fim, foram recolhidas amostras de sangue em voluntários saudáveis pertencentes à população da aldeia da Cunha Baixa, para determinação de danos no DNA, imunofenotipagem e quantificação de metais no sangue. Os resultados revelaram que as minhocas assim como os ratinhos do campo foram negativamente afetados pela exposição aos resíduos mineiros em todos os níveis de organização biológica aqui analisados, o que faz destes organismos bons indicadores para a determinação do risco destas áreas contaminadas, evidenciando o potencial risco da exposição a estes contaminantes. Para além disso, o estudo feito à população da Cunha Baixa revelou danos no ADN e diminuição de populações importantes de células imunitárias (nomeadamente linfócitos T e NK), o que poderá resultar da exposição aos resíduos da mina, tornando as pessoas mais susceptíveis ao desenvolvimento de processos de carcinogénese. O presente estudo contribuiu significativamente para a caracterização dos riscos da exposição a resíduos provenientes de minas de urânio abandonadas, evidenciando os seus efeitos negativos a nível molecular e celular, que potencialmente poderão causar instabilidade genómica e aumentar o risco de desenvolvimento de doenças genéticas.

Effectiveness of resilience assessment tools in different case studies

Tese de doutoramento, Biologia (Biologia Marinha e Aquacultura), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2015

Sélection et polymorphisme chez des grenouilles mimétiques du Pérou (Dendrobatidae)

La diversification des signaux aposématiques dans un cadre de mimétisme müllérien est un phénomène intrigant. Alors que la théorie relative à l'aposématisme et au mimétisme suggère l'évolution vers un signal aposématique unique, d'impressionnantes variations peuvent être observées entre les populations, et cela à petite échelle spatiale. Il a été supposé que la variation spatiale des pressions de sélection engendrées par différents prédateurs puisse être à l'origine de ce phénomène. Afin de tester cette hypothèse, nous avons étudié la transition entre deux systèmes géographiques caractérisés par des patrons aposématiques distincts chez des grenouilles mimétiques et toxiques du nord du Pérou (Dendrobatidae) en combinant les outils de génétique des populations aux outils écologiques. Dans chacun de ces systèmes, Ranitomeya imitator vit en sympatrie avec R. ventrimaculata ou R. variabilis. Il s'agit du principal exemple empirique suggérant que dans un cadre de mimétisme müllérien, il n'y a pas convergence des signaux aposématiques des deux espèces, mais plutôt convergence unidirectionnelle où R. imitator, étant polymorphe, imite des espèces monomorphes avec lesquelles elle est sympatrique. Premièrement, les résultats réfutent les prémisses qui suggèrent que R. imitator converge vers le signal aposématique d’une autre espèce. La haute similarité génétique entre les espèces modèles suggère qu'elles ont divergé plus récemment que les populations de R. imitator ou qu'elles sont encore connectées par du flux génique. Ces résultats indiquent que ces espèces ont été identifiées à tort comme des espèces différentes. De fait, l'identification de l'espèce imitatrice basée sur la variabilité phénotypique est invalidée dans ce système puisque R. imitator et R. variabilis/ventrimaculata démontrent la même variabilité. Deuxièmement, nos résultats démontrent que la prédation varie spatialement, autant en intensité qu'en direction, créant ainsi un paysage hétérogène de pressions de sélection. Ainsi, de fortes pressions de prédation stabilisatrice permettent le maintien de l'organisation géographique de différents signaux aposématiques et expliquent l'uniformité de ces signaux ainsi que les relations mimétiques. Par contre, le relâchement temporaire des pressions de prédation permet l'apparition de nouveaux phénotypes aposématiques via les processus évolutifs neutres, conduisant à un haut polymorphisme au niveau de ces populations. L'interaction de ces modes sélectifs nous a permis de démontrer pour la première fois comment la théorie évolutive de Wright (shifting balance theory) permet la diversification adaptative dans un système naturel. Pour conclure, cette étude a permis de mettre en évidence à quel point les systèmes de mimétisme müllérien peuvent être dynamiques. L'alternance spatiale entre les processus évolutifs neutres et la sélection naturelle permet l'émergence de nouveaux phénotypes aposématiques à une échelle locale, ainsi que l'apparition d'une organisation géographique des signaux d'avertissement et des relations de mimétisme müllérien.

“Stress Responses of Stinging Catfish Heteropneustes fassilis (Bloch) to Organophosphorus Insecticide Monocrotophos”

Poisoning by pesticides from agricultural fields is a serious water pollution problem and its environmental long-term effect may result in the incidence of poisoning of fish and other aquatic life forms (jyothi and Narayan, 1999). Fishes like Heteropneustesfbssilis and C/arius batrac/nus are especially prone to serious pesticide pollution as their habitat is mostly the agriculture area. Though only few studies are conducted in this area, it can be assessed from the local information that, population of such fish is on the verge of vulnerability due to extensive use of pesticides. The knowledge of sublethal effects of xenobiotic compounds on hematological parameters, enzyme activities and metabolite concentrations is very important to delineate the fish health status and provide a future understanding of ecological impacts. These pesticides act by causing inhibition of cholinesterase enzymes (ChE) by formation of enzyme inhibitor complex (O'Brien, 1976) and damaging the nervous system. These effects may result in metabolic disorders. Associated to cholinesterase activities, a study of other enzymes such as phosphatases and aminotransferases close to intermediary metabolite determination provides a wider view of metabolism. Interest in toxicological aspects has grown in recent years and research is now increasingly focused on mechanistic aspects of oxidative damage and cellular responses in biological system. The term ‘biomarker’ is generally used in a broad sense to include almost any measurement reflecting an interaction between a biological system and a potential hazard, which may be chemical, physical or biological (WHO, 1993). As biomarker stands for immediate responses, they are used as early warning signals of biological effects caused by environmental pollutants. The present work attempts to assess the toxicity of organophosphorus insecticide monocrotophos on the experimental organism selected for this study namely stinging catfish (Heteropneustesfossi/is) (Bloch), and to probe into the stress responses of the organism

Skin glands, poison and mimicry in dendrobatid and leptodactylid amphibians

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Caracterização demográfica e formas clínicas apresentadas por crianças internadas com dengue em um hospital de referência da Amazônia

Dengue tem causado epidemias de diferentes magnitudes nas últimas décadas e está presente em quase todos os Estados do Brasil, com a circulação dos quatro sorotipos diferentes, desde a introdução no país do sorotipo 4 em janeiro de 2011. O atual cenário epidemiológico do país indica a elevação das formas graves de dengue na faixa etária pediátrica. No entanto, estudos descritivos de casos da doença em crianças, que fazem referência às características epidemiológicas e clínicas, são pouco freqüentes. O presente trabalho destina-se a mostrar as características demográficas e formas clínicas apresentadas pelas crianças com idade inferior a doze anos, internadas com dengue, em um hospital de referência da Amazônia. Neste estudo, utilizou-se uma metodologia que permitisse uma busca retrospectiva, através da análise de 154 prontuários de crianças internadas com dengue no período de 2009 à 2011, no Hospital Universitário João de Barros Barreto. As variáveis analisadas foram: idade, sexo, área de residência, distribuição por municípios, sinais e sintomas, data da internação, data de início dos sintomas, forma clínica da doença e valores de plaquetas, hematócrito e enzimas hepáticas. Neste estudo, não houve diferença estatisticamente significativa entre os gêneros, e a maioria dos casos confirmados de dengue foram procedentes de municípios no interior do Pará (57,6%). A febre foi o sinal mais freqüentemente encontrado (98,7%). Petéquia foi a manifestação hemorrágica referida como mais freqüente neste estudo (76,6%). Entre os sinais de alerta para febre hemorrágica do Dengue, dor abdominal e vômitos estavam presentes em 77,3% dos pacientes. No que se refere ao tempo decorrido entre o início dos sintomas até a data da internação hospitalar, a principal característica observada neste estudo é que somente após cinco à sete dias do início do quadro clínico, os pacientes tiveram acesso ao tratamento em hospital de referência. Esses resultados mostram que é necessário reforçar os serviços básicos de saúde, a fim de fornecer diagnóstico precoce e tratamento adequado, sobretudo na faixa etária pediátrica, onde casos de dengue eventualmente são confundidos com outras viroses prevalentes na infância. Certamente, há necessidade de avaliar a eficácia dos programas de controle de dengue e aplicação de medidas específicas para áreas identificadas como prioritárias.

Traffic jam driving with NMV avoidance

n recent years, the development of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) – mainly based on lidar and cameras – has considerably improved the safety of driving in urban environments. These systems provide warning signals for the driver in the case that any unexpected traffic circumstance is detected. The next step is to develop systems capable not only of warning the driver but also of taking over control of the car to avoid a potential collision. In the present communication, a system capable of autonomously avoiding collisions in traffic jam situations is presented. First, a perception system was developed for urban situations—in which not only vehicles have to be considered, but also pedestrians and other non-motor-vehicles (NMV). It comprises a differential global positioning system (DGPS) and wireless communication for vehicle detection, and an ultrasound sensor for NMV detection. Then, the vehicle's actuators – brake and throttle pedals – were modified to permit autonomous control. Finally, a fuzzy logic controller was implemented capable of analyzing the information provided by the perception system and of sending control commands to the vehicle's actuators so as to avoid accidents. The feasibility of the integrated system was tested by mounting it in a commercial vehicle, with the results being encouraging.

Sistema de alarmas asistenciales para hospitales y residencias

En los hospitales y residencias geriátricas de hoy en día es necesario que tengan un sistema asistencial paciente-enfermera. Este sistema debe ser capaz de controlar y gestionar cada una de las alarmas que se puedan generar en el menor tiempo posible y con la mayor eficacia. Para ello se ha diseñado una solución completa llamada ConnectCare. La arquitectura modular del sistema y la utilización de comunicación IP permiten adaptar el sistema a cada situación proporcionando soluciones específicas a medida. Este sistema se compone de un software llamado Buslogic que gestiona las alarmas en un servidor y de unos dispositivos llamados Fonet Control TCP/IP que posee una doble función: por una parte, sirve como dispositivo intercomunicador telefónico y por otra parte, sirve como dispositivo de gestión de alarmas y control de otros dispositivos externos. Como dispositivo intercomunicador telefónico, se integra en la red telefónica como un terminal de extensión analógica permitiendo la intercomunicación entre el paciente y el personal sanitario. Se hará una breve descripción de la parte intercomunicadora pero no es el objeto de este proyecto. En cambio, en la parte de control se hará más hincapié del diseño y su funcionamiento ya que sí es el objeto de este proyecto. La placa de control permite la recepción de señales provenientes de dispositivos de llamadas cableados, como son pulsadores asistenciales tipo “pera” o tiradores de baño. También es posible recibir señales de alerta de dispositivos no estrictamente asistenciales como detectores de humo o detectores de presencia. Además, permite controlar las luces de las habitaciones de los residentes y actuar sobre otros dispositivos externos. A continuación se mostrará un presupuesto para tener una idea del coste que supone. El presupuesto se divide en dos partes, la primera corresponde en el diseño de la placa de control y la segunda corresponde a la fabricación en serie de la misma. Después hablaremos sobre las conclusiones que hemos sacado tras la realización de este proyecto y sobre las posibles mejoras, terminando con una demostración del funcionamiento del equipo en la vida real. ABSTRACT. Nowadays, in hospitals and nursing homes it is required to have a patient-nurse care system. This system must be able to control and manage each one of the alarms, in the shortest possible time and with maximum efficiency. For this, we have designed a complete solution called ConnectCare. The system architecture is modular and the communication is by IP protocol. This allows the system to adapt to each situation and providing specific solutions. This system is composed by a software, called Buslogic, which it manages the alarms in the PC server and a hardware, called Fonet Control TCP / IP, which it has a dual role: the first role, it is a telephone intercom device and second role, it is a system alarm manager and it can control some external devices. As telephone intercom device, it is integrated into the telephone network and also it is an analog extension terminal allowing intercommunication between the patient and the health personnel. A short description of this intercommunication system will be made, because it is not the subject of this project. Otherwise, the control system will be described with more emphasis on the design and operation point of view, because this is the subject of this project. The control board allows the reception of signals from wired devices, such as pushbutton handset or bathroom pullcord. It is also possible to receive warning signals of non nurse call devices such as smoke detectors or motion detectors. Moreover, it allows to control the lights of the patients’ rooms and to act on other external devices. Then, a budget will be showed. The budget is divided into two parts, the first one is related with the design of the control board and the second one corresponds to the serial production of it. Then, it is discussed the conclusions of this project and the possible improvements, ending with a demonstration of the equipment in real life.

The future imagined: Exploring fiction as a means of reflecting on today’s Grand Societal Challenges and tomorrow’s options

European science policy (so-called Horizon 2020) is guided by Grand Societal Challenges (GSCs) with the explicit aim of shaping the future. In this paper we propose an innovative approach to the analysis and critique of Europe’s GSCs. The aim is to explore how speculative and creative fiction offer ways of embodying, telling, imagining, and symbolising ‘futures’, that can provide alternative frames and understandings to enrich the grand challenges of the 21st century, and the related rationale and agendas for ERA and H2020. We identify six ways in which filmic and literary representations can be considered creative foresight methods (i.e. through: creative input, detail, warning, reflection, critique, involvement) and can provide alternative perspectives on these central challenges, and warning signals for the science policy they inform. The inquiry involved the selection of 64 novels and movies engaging with notions of the future, produced over the last 150 years. Content analysis based on a standardised matrix of major themes and sub-domains, allows to build a hierarchy of themes and to identify major patterns of long-lasting concerns about humanity’s future. The study highlights how fiction sees oppression, inequality and a range of ethical issues linked to human and nature’s dignity as central to, and inseparable from innovation, technology and science. It concludes identifying warning signals in four major domains, arguing that these signals are compelling, and ought to be heard, not least because elements of such future have already escaped the imaginary world to make part of today’s experience. It identifies areas poorly defined or absent from Europe's science agenda, and argues for the need to increase research into human, social, political and cultural processes involved in techno-science endeavours.