Avaliação do impacto radiológico atmosférico de uma unidade de mineração e beneficiamento de urânio

Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o impacto radiológico atmosférico da Unidade de Concentrado de Urânio URA, Caetité, BA, através da modelagem da dispersão de radionuclídeos e a estimativa da dose efetiva anual (em mSv.ano-1). Para tal, utilizou-se o programa MILDOS-AREA que foi desenvolvido pelo Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) em conjunto com a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), para avaliar impacto radiológico ambiental atmosférico nas instalações de mineração e beneficiamento de urânio. O incremento de dose efetiva anual para três grupos críticos hipotéticos e oito grupos populacionais reais foi estimado com base na medida de fluxos de radônio e na estimativa das concentrações de radionuclídeos em particulados no ar dos principais termos fontes da URA (cava da mina, depósito de estéril e britador). Paralelamente, as medidas de concentração de radônio e taxa de kerma no ar, reportadas nos relatórios dos programas de monitoração ambiental pré-operacional (PMAPO) e operacional (PMAO) da URA, foram avaliadas. Os valores de dose efetiva anual estimados para os grupos críticos hipotéticos variaram de 1,78E-02 a 2,10E-02 mSv.ano-1, enquanto que para os grupos populacionais, variaram de 7,49E-05 a 1,56E-02 mSv.ano-1. A maior contribuição para o incremento da dose foi devida a inalação do radônio, sendo responsável por quase a totalidade da dose efetiva anual estimada. A média da concentração de atividade de radônio no entorno da URA foi 137,21 Bq m-3 e não sendo observada diferenças significativas entre as concentrações de radônio reportadas nos programas de monitoramento ambiental pré-operacional (valores de background) e operacional. Os valores médios de taxa de kerma no ar no entorno da URA foram de 0,136 μGy h-1. No entanto, em todos os pontos de monitoramento, os valores reportados no programa operacional foram inferiores aos valores reportados no programa pré-operacional (background), o que sugere problemas de medidas ou de coleta de dados durante a realização deste programa. O operador da URA utilizou para avaliação de impacto radiológico atmosférico, resultados apresentados em seus relatórios finais de análise de segurança (RFAS), um modelo próprio de simulação de dispersão, denominado Impacto Ambiental Radiológico (IAR7). Uma comparação entre o MILDOS-AREA e o IAR7, utilizando os mesmos parâmetros de entrada reportados no RFAS sugere que o IAR7 subestimou as concentrações de radônio no ar para os grupos críticos hipotéticos. Os resultados de simulação com o MILDOS-AREA mostram que as doses efetivas estimadas para os grupos críticos hipotéticos são inferiores a 0,3 mSv.ano-1 que é a restrição de dose estabelecida pela Comissão Nacional de Energia Nuclear. Recomenda-se que o código MILDOS-AREA seja utilizado no Brasil, para fins de licenciamento e controle, tendo em vista que o mesmo é um código validado e já utilizado em outros países para avaliar impacto radiológico ambiental atmosférico em instalações de mineração e beneficiamento de urânio

Accidental release of hazardous gases: modelling and assessing risk

The renewed concern in assessing risks and consequences from technological hazards in industrial and urban areas continues emphasizing the development of local-scale consequence analysis (CA) modelling tools able to predict shortterm pollution episodes and exposure effects on humans and the environment in case of accident with hazardous gases (hazmat). In this context, the main objective of this thesis is the development and validation of the EFfects of Released Hazardous gAses (EFRHA) model. This modelling tool is designed to simulate the outflow and atmospheric dispersion of heavy and passive hazmat gases in complex and build-up areas, and to estimate the exposure consequences of short-term pollution episodes in accordance to regulatory/safety threshold limits. Five main modules comprising up-to-date methods constitute the model: meteorological, terrain, source term, dispersion, and effects modules. Different initial physical states accident scenarios can be examined. Considered the main core of the developed tool, the dispersion module comprises a shallow layer modelling approach capable to account the main influence of obstacles during the hazmat gas dispersion phenomena. Model validation includes qualitative and quantitative analyses of main outputs by the comparison of modelled results against measurements and/or modelled databases. The preliminary analysis of meteorological and source term modules against modelled outputs from extensively validated models shows the consistent description of ambient conditions and the variation of the hazmat gas release. Dispersion is compared against measurements observations in obstructed and unobstructed areas for different release and dispersion scenarios. From the performance validation exercise, acceptable agreement was obtained, showing the reasonable numerical representation of measured features. In general, quality metrics are within or close to the acceptance limits recommended for ‘non-CFD models’, demonstrating its capability to reasonably predict hazmat gases accidental release and atmospheric dispersion in industrial and urban areas. EFRHA model was also applied to a particular case study, the Estarreja Chemical Complex (ECC), for a set of accidental release scenarios within a CA scope. The results show the magnitude of potential effects on the surrounding populated area and influence of the type of accident and the environment on the main outputs. Overall the present thesis shows that EFRHA model can be used as a straightforward tool to support CA studies in the scope of training and planning, but also, to support decision and emergency response in case of hazmat gases accidental release in industrial and built-up areas.

Application of WRF-Chem to Forecasting PM10 Concentration over Poland

The meteorological and chemical transport model WRF-Chem was implemented to forecast PM10 concentrations over Poland. WRF-Chem version 3.5 was configured with three one way nested domains using the GFS meteorological data and the TNO MACC II emissions. Forecasts, with 48h lead time, were run for a winter and summer period 2014. WRF-Chem in general captures the variability in observed PM10 concentrations, but underestimates some peak concentrations during winter-time. The peaks coincide with either stable atmospheric condition during nighttime in the lower part of the planetary boundary layer or on days with very low surface temperatures. Such episodes lead to increased combustion in residential heating, where hard coal is the main fuel in Poland. This suggests that a key to improvement in the model performance for the peak concentrations is to focus on the simulation of PBL processes and the distribution of emissions with high resolution in WRF-Chem.

Application of the WRF-Chem Model for a High Ozone Episode in SW Poland – Preliminary Results

The Weather Research and Forecasting model, integrated online with chemistry module, is a multi-scale model suitable for both research and operational forecasts of meteorology and air quality. It is used by many institutions for a variety of applications. In this study, the WRF v3.5 with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is applied to the area of Poland, for a period of 3-20 July 2006, when high concentrations of ground level ozone were observed. The meteorological and chemistry simulations were initiated with ERA-Interim reanalysis and TNO MACC II emissions database, respectively. The model physical parameterization includes RRTM shortwave radiation, Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme, Purdue Lin microphysics and ACM2 PBL, established previously as the optimal configuration. Chemical mechanism used for the study was RADM2 with MADE/SORGAM aerosols. Simulations were performed for three one-way nested domains covering Europe (36 km x 36 km), Central Europe (12 km x 12 km) and Poland (4 km x 4 km). The results from the innermost domain were analyzed and compared to measurements of ozone concentration at three stations in different environments. The results show underestimation of observed values and daily amplitude of ozone concentrations.

The Long Distance Transport of Airborne Ambrosia Pollen to the UK and the Netherlands from Central and South Europe

Background: The invasive alien species Ambrosia artemisiifolia (common or short ragweed) is increasing its range in Europe. In the UK and the Netherlands airborne concentrations of Ambrosia pollen are usually low. However, more than 30 Ambrosia pollen grains per cubic metre of air (above the level capable to trigger allergic symptoms) were recorded in Leicester (UK) and Leiden (NL) on 4 and 5 September 2014. Objective: The aims of this study were to determine whether the highly allergenic Ambrosia pollen recorded during the episode could be the result of long distance transport, to identify the potential sources of these pollen grains and describe the conditions that facilitated this possible long distance transport. Methods: Airborne Ambrosia pollen data were collected at 10 sites in Europe. Back trajectory and atmospheric dispersion calculations were performed using HYSPLIT_4. Results: Back trajectories calculated at Leicester and Leiden show that higher altitude air masses (1500m) originated from source areas on the Pannonian Plain and Ukraine. During the episode, air masses veered to the west and passed over the Rhône Valley. Dispersion calculations showed that the atmospheric conditions were suitable for Ambrosia pollen released from the Pannonian Plain and the Rhône Valley to reach the higher levels and enter the air stream moving to Northwest Europe where they were deposited at ground level and recorded by monitoring sites. Conclusions: The study indicates that the Ambrosia pollen grains recorded during the episode in Leicester and Leiden were probably not produced by local sources, but transported long distances from potential source regions in East Europe, i.e. the Pannonian Plain and Ukraine, as well as the Rhône Valley in France.

Studies on the meteriological aspects of air pollution over Cochin

Pollutants that once enter into the earth’s atmosphere become part of the atmosphere and hence their dispersion, dilution, direction of transportation etc. are governed by the meteorological conditions. The thesis deals with the study of the atmospheric dispersion capacity, wind climatology, atmospheric stability, pollutant distribution by means of a model and the suggestions for a comprehensive planning for the industrially developing city, Cochin. The definition, sources, types and effects of air pollution have been dealt with briefly. The influence of various meteorological parameters such as vector wind, temperature and its vertical structure and atmospheric stability in relation to pollutant dispersal have been studied. The importance of inversions, mixing heights, ventilation coefficients were brought out. The spatial variation of mixing heights studies for the first time on a microscale region, serves to delineate the regions of good and poor dispersal capacity. A study of wind direction fluctuation, σθ and its relation to stability and mixing heights were shown to be much useful. It was shown that there is a necessity to look into the method of σθ computation. The development of Gausssian Plume Model along with the application for multiple sources was presented. The pollutant chosen was sulphur dioxide and industrial sources alone were considered. The percentage frequency of occurrence of inversions and isothermals are found to be low in all months during the year. The spatial variation of mixing heights revealed that a single mixing height cannot be taken as a representative for the whole city have low mixing heights and monsoonal months showed lowest mixing heights. The study of ventilation co-efficients showed values less than the required optimum value 6000m2/5. However, the low values may be due to the consideration of surface wind alone instead of the vertically averaged wind. Relatively more calm conditions and light winds during night and strong winds during day time were observed. During the most of the year westerlies during day time and northeasterlies during night time are the dominant winds. Unstable conditions with high values of σθ during day time and stable conditions with lower values of σθ during night time are the prominent features. Monsoonal months showed neutral stability for most of the time. A study σθ of and Pasquill Stability category has revealed the difficulty in giving a unique value of for each stability category. For the first time regression equations have been developed relating mixing heights and σθ. A closer examination of σθ revealed that half of the range of wind direction fluctuations is to be taken, instead of one by sixth, to compute σθ. The spatial distribution of SO2 showed a more or less uniform distribution with a slight intrusion towards south. Winter months showed low concentrations contrary to the expectations. The variations of the concentration is found to be influenced more by the mixing height and the stack height rather than wind speed. In the densely populated areas the concentration is more than the threshold limit value. However, the values reported appear to be high, because no depletion of the material is assumed through dry or wet depositions and also because of the inclusion of calm conditions with a very light wind speed. A reduction of emission during night time with a consequent rise during day time would bring down the levels of pollution. The probable locations for the new industries could be the extreme southeast parts because the concentration towards the north falls off very quickly resulting low concentrations. In such a case pollutant spread would be towards south and west, thus keeping the city interior relatively free from pollution. A more detailed examination of the pollutant spread by means of models that would take the dry and wet depositions may be necessary. Nevertheless, the present model serves to give the trend of the distribution of pollutant concentration with which one can suggest the optimum locations for the new industries

Quantifying uncertainty in critical loads: (B) acidity mass balance critical loads on a sensitive site

This paper reports an uncertainty analysis of critical loads for acid deposition for a site in southern England, using the Steady State Mass Balance Model. The uncertainty bounds, distribution type and correlation structure for each of the 18 input parameters was considered explicitly, and overall uncertainty estimated by Monte Carlo methods. Estimates of deposition uncertainty were made from measured data and an atmospheric dispersion model, and hence the uncertainty in exceedance could also be calculated. The uncertainties of the calculated critical loads were generally much lower than those of the input parameters due to a "compensation of errors" mechanism - coefficients of variation ranged from 13% for CLmaxN to 37% for CL(A). With 1990 deposition, the probability that the critical load was exceeded was > 0.99; to reduce this probability to 0.50, a 63% reduction in deposition is required; to 0.05, an 82% reduction. With 1997 deposition, which was lower than that in 1990, exceedance probabilities declined and uncertainties in exceedance narrowed as deposition uncertainty had less effect. The parameters contributing most to the uncertainty in critical loads were weathering rates, base cation uptake rates, and choice of critical chemical value, indicating possible research priorities. However, the different critical load parameters were to some extent sensitive to different input parameters. The application of such probabilistic results to environmental regulation is discussed.

Evaluating the structure and magnitude of the ash plume during the initial phase of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption using lidar observations and NAME simulations

The Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland erupted explosively on 14 April 2010, emitting a plume of ash into the atmosphere. The ash was transported from Iceland toward Europe where mostly cloud-free skies allowed ground-based lidars at Chilbolton in England and Leipzig in Germany to estimate the mass concentration in the ash cloud as it passed overhead. The UK Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modeling Environment (NAME) has been used to simulate the evolution of the ash cloud from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano during the initial phase of the ash emissions, 14–16 April 2010. NAME captures the timing and sloped structure of the ash layer observed over Leipzig, close to the central axis of the ash cloud. Relatively small errors in the ash cloud position, probably caused by the cumulative effect of errors in the driving meteorology en route, result in a timing error at distances far from the central axis of the ash cloud. Taking the timing error into account, NAME is able to capture the sloped ash layer over the UK. Comparison of the lidar observations and NAME simulations has allowed an estimation of the plume height time series to be made. It is necessary to include in the model input the large variations in plume height in order to accurately predict the ash cloud structure at long range. Quantitative comparison with the mass concentrations at Leipzig and Chilbolton suggest that around 3% of the total emitted mass is transported as far as these sites by small (<100 μm diameter) ash particles.

A study of the arrival over the United Kingdom in April 2010 of the Eyjafjallajökull ash cloud using ground-based lidar and numerical simulations

We make a qualitative and quantitative comparison of numericalsimulations of the ashcloud generated by the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April2010 with ground-basedlidar measurements at Exeter and Cardington in southern England. The numericalsimulations are performed using the Met Office’s dispersion model, NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment). The results show that NAME captures many of the features of the observed ashcloud. The comparison enables us to estimate the fraction of material which survives the near-source fallout processes and enters into the distal plume. A number of simulations are performed which show that both the structure of the ashcloudover southern England and the concentration of ash within it are particularly sensitive to the height of the eruption column (and the consequent estimated mass emission rate), to the shape of the vertical source profile and the level of prescribed ‘turbulent diffusion’ (representing the mixing by the unresolved eddies) in the free troposphere with less sensitivity to the timing of the start of the eruption and the sedimentation of particulates in the distal plume.

Horizontal and vertical structure of the Eyjafjallajökull ash cloud over the UK: a comparison of airborne lidar observations and simulations

During April and May 2010 the ash cloud from the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull caused widespread disruption to aviation over northern Europe. The location and impact of the eruption led to a wealth of observations of the ash cloud were being obtained which can be used to assess modelling of the long range transport of ash in the troposphere. The UK FAAM (Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements) BAe-146-301 research aircraft overflew the ash cloud on a number of days during May. The aircraft carries a downward looking lidar which detected the ash layer through the backscatter of the laser light. In this study ash concentrations derived from the lidar are compared with simulations of the ash cloud made with NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment), a general purpose atmospheric transport and dispersion model. The simulated ash clouds are compared to the lidar data to determine how well NAME simulates the horizontal and vertical structure of the ash clouds. Comparison between the ash concentrations derived from the lidar and those from NAME is used to define the fraction of ash emitted in the eruption that is transported over long distances compared to the total emission of tephra. In making these comparisons possible position errors in the simulated ash clouds are identified and accounted for. The ash layers seen by the lidar considered in this study were thin, with typical depths of 550–750 m. The vertical structure of the ash cloud simulated by NAME was generally consistent with the observed ash layers, although the layers in the simulated ash clouds that are identified with observed ash layers are about twice the depth of the observed layers. The structure of the simulated ash clouds were sensitive to the profile of ash emissions that was assumed. In terms of horizontal and vertical structure the best results were obtained by assuming that the emission occurred at the top of the eruption plume, consistent with the observed structure of eruption plumes. However, early in the period when the intensity of the eruption was low, assuming that the emission of ash was uniform with height gives better guidance on the horizontal and vertical structure of the ash cloud. Comparison of the lidar concentrations with those from NAME show that 2–5% of the total mass erupted by the volcano remained in the ash cloud over the United Kingdom.

Aircraft observations and model simulations of concentration and particle size distribution in the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash cloud

The Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland emitted a cloud of ash into the atmosphere during April and May 2010. Over the UK the ash cloud was observed by the FAAM BAe-146 Atmospheric Research Aircraft which was equipped with in-situ probes measuring the concentration of volcanic ash carried by particles of varying sizes. The UK Met Office Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) has been used to simulate the evolution of the ash cloud emitted by the Eyjafjallajökull volcano during the period 4–18 May 2010. In the NAME simulations the processes controlling the evolution of the concentration and particle size distribution include sedimentation and deposition of particles, horizontal dispersion and vertical wind shear. For travel times between 24 and 72 h, a 1/t relationship describes the evolution of the concentration at the centre of the ash cloud and the particle size distribution remains fairly constant. Although NAME does not represent the effects of microphysical processes, it can capture the observed decrease in concentration with travel time in this period. This suggests that, for this eruption, microphysical processes play a small role in determining the evolution of the distal ash cloud. Quantitative comparison with observations shows that NAME can simulate the observed column-integrated mass if around 4% of the total emitted mass is assumed to be transported as far as the UK by small particles (< 30 μm diameter). NAME can also simulate the observed particle size distribution if a distal particle size distribution that contains a large fraction of < 10 μm diameter particles is used, consistent with the idea that phraetomagmatic volcanoes, such as Eyjafjallajökull, emit very fine particles.

Volcanic ash layer depth: processes and mechanisms

The long duration of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption provided a unique opportunity to measure a widely dispersed volcanic ash cloud. Layers of volcanic ash were observed by the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network with a mean depth of 1.2 km and standard deviation of 0.9 km. In this paper we evaluate the ability of the Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) to simulate the observed ash layers and examine the processes controlling their depth. NAME simulates distal ash layer depths exceptionally well with a mean depth of 1.2 km and standard deviation of 0.7 km. The dominant process determining the depth of ash layers over Europe is the balance between the vertical wind shear (which acts to reduce the depth of the ash layers) and vertical turbulent mixing (which acts to deepen the layers). Interestingly, differential sedimentation of ash particles and the volcano vertical emission profile play relatively minor roles.

Evaluation of area contaminated by wood treatment activities: genetic markers in the environment and in the child population

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)