Prediction with measurement errors in finite populations

We address the problem of selecting the best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) of the latent value (e.g., serum glucose fasting level) of sample subjects with heteroskedastic measurement errors. Using a simple example, we compare the usual mixed model BLUP to a similar predictor based on a mixed model framed in a finite population (FPMM) setup with two sources of variability, the first of which corresponds to simple random sampling and the second, to heteroskedastic measurement errors. Under this last approach, we show that when measurement errors are subject-specific, the BLUP shrinkage constants are based on a pooled measurement error variance as opposed to the individual ones generally considered for the usual mixed model BLUP. In contrast, when the heteroskedastic measurement errors are measurement condition-specific, the FPMM BLUP involves different shrinkage constants. We also show that in this setup, when measurement errors are subject-specific, the usual mixed model predictor is biased but has a smaller mean squared error than the FPMM BLUP which points to some difficulties in the interpretation of such predictors. (C) 2011 Elsevier By. All rights reserved.

Errors in the knee joint forces and moments during gait depending on the foot and knee prosthetic components

Background Previously studies showed that inverse dynamics based on motion analysis and force-plate is inaccurate compared to direct measurements for individuals with transfemoral amputation (TFA). Indeed, direct measurements can appropriately take into account the absorption at the prosthetic foot and the resistance at the prosthetic knee. [1-3] However, these studies involved only a passive prosthetic knee. Aim The objective of the present study was to investigate if different types of prosthetic feet and knees can exhibit different levels of error in the knee joint forces and moments. Method Three trials of walking at self-selected speed were analysed for 9 TFAs (7 males and 2 females, 47±9 years old, 1.76±0.1 m 79±17 kg) with a motion analysis system (Qualisys, Goteborg, Sweden), force plates (Kitsler, Winterthur, Switzerland) and a multi-axial transducer (JR3, Woodland, USA) mounted above the prosthetic knee [1-17]. TFAs were all fitted with an osseointegrated implant system. The prostheses included different type of foot (N=5) and knee (N=3) components. The root mean square errors (RMSE) between direct measurements and the knee joint forces and moments estimated by inverse dynamics were computed for stance and swing phases of gait and expressed as a percentage of the measured amplitudes. A one-way Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA was performed (Statgraphics, Levallois-Perret, France) to analyse the effects of the prosthetic components on the RMSEs. Cross-effects and post-hoc tests were not analysed in this study. Results A significant effect (*) was found for the type of prosthetic foot on anterior-posterior force during swing (p=0.016), lateral-medial force during stance (p=0.009), adduction-abduction moment during stance (p=0.038), internal-external rotation moment during stance (p=0.014) and during swing (p=0.006), and flexion-extension moment during stance (p = 0.035). A significant effect (#) was found for the type of prosthetic knee on anterior-posterior force during swing (p=0.018) and adduction-abduction moment during stance (p=0.035). Discussion & Conclusion The RMSEs were larger during swing than during stance. It is because the errors on accelerations (as derived from motion analysis) become substantial with respect to the external loads. Thus, inverse dynamics during swing should be analysed with caution because the mean RMSEs are close to 50%. Conversely, there were fewer effects of the prosthetic components on RMSE during swing than during stance and, accordingly, fewer effects due to knees than feet. Thus, inverse dynamics during stance should be used with caution for comparison of different prosthetic components.

Axially homogeneous, zero mean flow buoyancy-driven turbulence in a vertical pipe

We report an experimental study of a new type of turbulent flow that is driven purely by buoyancy. The flow is due to an unstable density difference, created using brine and water, across the ends of a long (length/diameter = 9) vertical pipe. The Schmidt number Sc is 670, and the Rayleigh number (Ra) based on the density gradient and diameter is about 10(8). Under these conditions the convection is turbulent, and the time-averaged velocity at any point is `zero'. The Reynolds number based on the Taylor microscale, Re-lambda, is about 65. The pipe is long enough for there to be an axially homogeneous region, with a linear density gradient, about 6-7 diameters long in the midlength of the pipe. In the absence of a mean flow and, therefore, mean shear, turbulence is sustained just by buoyancy. The flow can be thus considered to be an axially homogeneous turbulent natural convection driven by a constant (unstable) density gradient. We characterize the flow using flow visualization and particle image velocimetry (PIV). Measurements show that the mean velocities and the Reynolds shear stresses are zero across the cross-section; the root mean squared (r.m.s.) of the vertical velocity is larger than those of the lateral velocities (by about one and half times at the pipe axis). We identify some features of the turbulent flow using velocity correlation maps and the probability density functions of velocities and velocity differences. The flow away from the wall, affected mainly by buoyancy, consists of vertically moving fluid masses continually colliding and interacting, while the flow near the wall appears similar to that in wall-bound shear-free turbulence. The turbulence is anisotropic, with the anisotropy increasing to large values as the wall is approached. A mixing length model with the diameter of the pipe as the length scale predicts well the scalings for velocity fluctuations and the flux. This model implies that the Nusselt number would scale as (RaSc1/2)-Sc-1/2, and the Reynolds number would scale as (RaSc-1/2)-Sc-1/2. The velocity and the flux measurements appear to be consistent with the Ra-1/2 scaling, although it must be pointed out that the Rayleigh number range was less than 10. The Schmidt number was not varied to check the Sc scaling. The fluxes and the Reynolds numbers obtained in the present configuration are Much higher compared to what would be obtained in Rayleigh-Benard (R-B) convection for similar density differences.

Weighted subspace methods and spatial smoothing: analysis and comparison

The effect of using a spatially smoothed forward-backward covariance matrix on the performance of weighted eigen-based state space methods/ESPRIT, and weighted MUSIC for direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation is analyzed. Expressions for the mean-squared error in the estimates of the signal zeros and the DOA estimates, along with some general properties of the estimates and optimal weighting matrices, are derived. A key result is that optimally weighted MUSIC and weighted state-space methods/ESPRIT have identical asymptotic performance. Moreover, by properly choosing the number of subarrays, the performance of unweighted state space methods can be significantly improved. It is also shown that the mean-squared error in the DOA estimates is independent of the exact distribution of the source amplitudes. This results in a unified framework for dealing with DOA estimation using a uniformly spaced linear sensor array and the time series frequency estimation problems.

Probing potential energy surfaces in confined systems: behavior of mean-square displacement in zeolites

Time evolution of mean-squared displacement based on molecular dynamics for a variety of adsorbate-zeolite systems is reported. Transition from ballistic to diffusive behavior is observed for all the systems. The transition times are found to be system dependent and show different types of dependence on temperature. Model calculations on a one-dimensional system are carried out which show that the characteristic length and transition times are dependent on the distance between the barriers, their heights, and temperature. In light of these findings, it is shown that it is possible to obtain valuable information about the average potential energy surface sampled under specific external conditions.

Receiver-Only Optimized Vector Quantization for Noisy Channels

This paper considers the design and analysis of a filter at the receiver of a source coding system to mitigate the excess Mean-Squared Error (MSE) distortion caused due to channel errors. It is assumed that the source encoder is channel-agnostic, i.e., that a Vector Quantization (VQ) based compression designed for a noiseless channel is employed. The index output by the source encoder is sent over a noisy memoryless discrete symmetric channel, and the possibly incorrect received index is decoded by the corresponding VQ decoder. The output of the VQ decoder is processed by a receive filter to obtain an estimate of the source instantiation. In the sequel, the optimum linear receive filter structure to minimize the overall MSE is derived, and shown to have a minimum-mean squared error receiver type structure. Further, expressions are derived for the resulting high-rate MSE performance. The performance is compared with the MSE obtained using conventional VQ as well as the channel optimized VQ. The accuracy of the expressions is demonstrated through Monte Carlo simulations.

Axially homogeneous, zero mean flow buoyancy-driven turbulence in a vertical pipe

We report an experimental study of a new type of turbulent flow that is driven purely by buoyancy. The flow is due to an unstable density difference, created using brine and water, across the ends of a long (length/diameter=9) vertical pipe. The Schmidt number Sc is 670, and the Rayleigh number (Ra) based on the density gradient and diameter is about 108. Under these conditions the convection is turbulent, and the time-averaged velocity at any point is ‘zero’. The Reynolds number based on the Taylor microscale, Reλ, is about 65. The pipe is long enough for there to be an axially homogeneous region, with a linear density gradient, about 6–7 diameters long in the midlength of the pipe. In the absence of a mean flow and, therefore, mean shear, turbulence is sustained just by buoyancy. The flow can be thus considered to be an axially homogeneous turbulent natural convection driven by a constant (unstable) density gradient. We characterize the flow using flow visualization and particle image velocimetry (PIV). Measurements show that the mean velocities and the Reynolds shear stresses are zero across the cross-section; the root mean squared (r.m.s.) of the vertical velocity is larger than those of the lateral velocities (by about one and half times at the pipe axis). We identify some features of the turbulent flow using velocity correlation maps and the probability density functions of velocities and velocity differences. The flow away from the wall, affected mainly by buoyancy, consists of vertically moving fluid masses continually colliding and interacting, while the flow near the wall appears similar to that in wall-bound shear-free turbulence. The turbulence is anisotropic, with the anisotropy increasing to large values as the wall is approached. A mixing length model with the diameter of the pipe as the length scale predicts well the scalings for velocity fluctuations and the flux. This model implies that the Nusselt number would scale as Ra1/2Sc1/2, and the Reynolds number would scale as Ra1/2Sc−1/2. The velocity and the flux measurements appear to be consistent with the Ra1/2 scaling, although it must be pointed out that the Rayleigh number range was less than 10. The Schmidt number was not varied to check the Sc scaling. The fluxes and the Reynolds numbers obtained in the present configuration are much higher compared to what would be obtained in Rayleigh–Bénard (R–B) convection for similar density differences.

An Autoregressive Spectral Density Estimator at Frequency Zero for Nonstationarity Tests.

Many unit root and cointegration tests require an estimate of the spectral density function at frequency zero at some process. Kernel estimators based on weighted sums of autocovariances constructed using estimated residuals from an AR(1) regression are commonly used. However, it is known that with substantially correlated errors, the OLS estimate of the AR(1) parameter is severely biased. in this paper, we first show that this least squares bias induces a significant increase in the bias and mean-squared error of kernel-based estimators.

Estimation utilisant les polynômes de Bernstein

Ce mémoire porte sur la présentation des estimateurs de Bernstein qui sont des alternatives récentes aux différents estimateurs classiques de fonctions de répartition et de densité. Plus précisément, nous étudions leurs différentes propriétés et les comparons à celles de la fonction de répartition empirique et à celles de l'estimateur par la méthode du noyau. Nous déterminons une expression asymptotique des deux premiers moments de l'estimateur de Bernstein pour la fonction de répartition. Comme pour les estimateurs classiques, nous montrons que cet estimateur vérifie la propriété de Chung-Smirnov sous certaines conditions. Nous montrons ensuite que l'estimateur de Bernstein est meilleur que la fonction de répartition empirique en terme d'erreur quadratique moyenne. En s'intéressant au comportement asymptotique des estimateurs de Bernstein, pour un choix convenable du degré du polynôme, nous montrons que ces estimateurs sont asymptotiquement normaux. Des études numériques sur quelques distributions classiques nous permettent de confirmer que les estimateurs de Bernstein peuvent être préférables aux estimateurs classiques.

ECG Noise Removal using GA tuned Sign-Data Least Mean Square Algorithm

Adaptive filter is a primary method to filter Electrocardiogram (ECG), because it does not need the signal statistical characteristics. In this paper, an adaptive filtering technique for denoising the ECG based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) tuned Sign-Data Least Mean Square (SD-LMS) algorithm is proposed. This technique minimizes the mean-squared error between the primary input, which is a noisy ECG, and a reference input which can be either noise that is correlated in some way with the noise in the primary input or a signal that is correlated only with ECG in the primary input. Noise is used as the reference signal in this work. The algorithm was applied to the records from the MIT -BIH Arrhythmia database for removing the baseline wander and 60Hz power line interference. The proposed algorithm gave an average signal to noise ratio improvement of 10.75 dB for baseline wander and 24.26 dB for power line interference which is better than the previous reported works

Evaluation of the S(T) assimilation method with the Argo dataset

Recent observations from the Argo dataset of temperature and salinity profiles are used to evaluate a series of 3-year data assimilation experiments in a global ice–ocean general circulation model. The experiments are designed to evaluate a new data assimilation system whereby salinity is assimilated along isotherms, S(T ). In addition, the role of a balancing salinity increment to maintain water mass properties is investigated. This balancing increment is found to effectively prevent spurious mixing in tropical regions induced by univariate temperature assimilation, allowing the correction of isotherm geometries without adversely influencing temperature–salinity relationships. In addition, the balancing increment is able to correct a fresh bias associated with a weak subtropical gyre in the North Atlantic using only temperature observations. The S(T ) assimilation method is found to provide an important improvement over conventional depth level assimilation, with lower root-mean-squared forecast errors over the upper 500 m in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. An additional set of experiments is performed whereby Argo data are withheld and used for independent evaluation. The most significant improvements from Argo assimilation are found in less well-observed regions (Indian, South Atlantic and South Pacific Oceans). When Argo salinity data are assimilated in addition to temperature, improvements to modelled temperature fields are obtained due to corrections to model density gradients and the resulting circulation. It is found that observations from the Argo array provide an invaluable tool for both correcting modelled water mass properties through data assimilation and for evaluating the assimilation methods themselves.

The full-spectrum correlated-k method for longwave atmospheric radiative transfer using an effective Planck function

The correlated k-distribution (CKD) method is widely used in the radiative transfer schemes of atmospheric models and involves dividing the spectrum into a number of bands and then reordering the gaseous absorption coefficients within each one. The fluxes and heating rates for each band may then be computed by discretizing the reordered spectrum into of order 10 quadrature points per major gas and performing a monochromatic radiation calculation for each point. In this presentation it is shown that for clear-sky longwave calculations, sufficient accuracy for most applications can be achieved without the need for bands: reordering may be performed on the entire longwave spectrum. The resulting full-spectrum correlated k (FSCK) method requires significantly fewer monochromatic calculations than standard CKD to achieve a given accuracy. The concept is first demonstrated by comparing with line-by-line calculations for an atmosphere containing only water vapor, in which it is shown that the accuracy of heating-rate calculations improves approximately in proportion to the square of the number of quadrature points. For more than around 20 points, the root-mean-squared error flattens out at around 0.015 K/day due to the imperfect rank correlation of absorption spectra at different pressures in the profile. The spectral overlap of m different gases is treated by considering an m-dimensional hypercube where each axis corresponds to the reordered spectrum of one of the gases. This hypercube is then divided up into a number of volumes, each approximated by a single quadrature point, such that the total number of quadrature points is slightly fewer than the sum of the number that would be required to treat each of the gases separately. The gaseous absorptions for each quadrature point are optimized such that they minimize a cost function expressing the deviation of the heating rates and fluxes calculated by the FSCK method from line-by-line calculations for a number of training profiles. This approach is validated for atmospheres containing water vapor, carbon dioxide, and ozone, in which it is found that in the troposphere and most of the stratosphere, heating-rate errors of less than 0.2 K/day can be achieved using a total of 23 quadrature points, decreasing to less than 0.1 K/day for 32 quadrature points. It would be relatively straightforward to extend the method to include other gases.

The full-spectrum correlated k method for longwave atmospheric radiative transfer: treatment of gaseous overlap

The correlated k-distribution (CKD) method is widely used in the radiative transfer schemes of atmospheric models, and involves dividing the spectrum into a number of bands and then reordering the gaseous absorption coefficients within each one. The fluxes and heating rates for each band may then be computed by discretizing the reordered spectrum into of order 10 quadrature points per major gas, and performing a pseudo-monochromatic radiation calculation for each point. In this paper it is first argued that for clear-sky longwave calculations, sufficient accuracy for most applications can be achieved without the need for bands: reordering may be performed on the entire longwave spectrum. The resulting full-spectrum correlated k (FSCK) method requires significantly fewer pseudo-monochromatic calculations than standard CKD to achieve a given accuracy. The concept is first demonstrated by comparing with line-by-line calculations for an atmosphere containing only water vapor, in which it is shown that the accuracy of heating-rate calculations improves approximately in proportion to the square of the number of quadrature points. For more than around 20 points, the root-mean-squared error flattens out at around 0.015 K d−1 due to the imperfect rank correlation of absorption spectra at different pressures in the profile. The spectral overlap of m different gases is treated by considering an m-dimensional hypercube where each axis corresponds to the reordered spectrum of one of the gases. This hypercube is then divided up into a number of volumes, each approximated by a single quadrature point, such that the total number of quadrature points is slightly fewer than the sum of the number that would be required to treat each of the gases separately. The gaseous absorptions for each quadrature point are optimized such they minimize a cost function expressing the deviation of the heating rates and fluxes calculated by the FSCK method from line-by-line calculations for a number of training profiles. This approach is validated for atmospheres containing water vapor, carbon dioxide and ozone, in which it is found that in the troposphere and most of the stratosphere, heating-rate errors of less than 0.2 K d−1 can be achieved using a total of 23 quadrature points, decreasing to less than 0.1 K d−1 for 32 quadrature points. It would be relatively straightforward to extend the method to include other gases.

Adaptive least mean square CDMA detection with Gram–Schmidt pre-processing

The Gram-Schmidt (GS) orthogonalisation procedure has been used to improve the convergence speed of least mean square (LMS) adaptive code-division multiple-access (CDMA) detectors. However, this algorithm updates two sets of parameters, namely the GS transform coefficients and the tap weights, simultaneously. Because of the additional adaptation noise introduced by the former, it is impossible to achieve the same performance as the ideal orthogonalised LMS filter, unlike the result implied in an earlier paper. The authors provide a lower bound on the minimum achievable mean squared error (MSE) as a function of the forgetting factor λ used in finding the GS transform coefficients, and propose a variable-λ algorithm to balance the conflicting requirements of good tracking and low misadjustment.

Evaluating forecasts from SETAR models of exchange rates

We consider the forecasting performance of two SETAR exchange rate models proposed by Kräger and Kugler [J. Int. Money Fin. 12 (1993) 195]. Assuming that the models are good approximations to the data generating process, we show that whether the non-linearities inherent in the data can be exploited to forecast better than a random walk depends on both how forecast accuracy is assessed and on the ‘state of nature’. Evaluation based on traditional measures, such as (root) mean squared forecast errors, may mask the superiority of the non-linear models. Generalized impulse response functions are also calculated as a means of portraying the asymmetric response to shocks implied by such models.