Challenging assumptions of future coastal habitat development around the UK

One habitat management requirement forced by 21st century relative sea-level rise (RSLR), will be the need to re-comprehend the dimensions of long-term transgressive behaviour of coastal systems being forced by such RSLR. Fresh approaches to the conceptual modelling and subsequent implementation of new coastal and peri-marine habitats will be required. There is concern that existing approaches to forecasting coastal systems development (and by implication their associated scarce coastal habitats) over the next century depend on a certain premise of orderly spatial succession of habitats. This assumption is shown to be questionable given the possible future rates of RSLR, magnitude of shoreline retreat and the lack of coastal sediment to maintain the protective morphologies to low-energy coastal habitats. Of these issues, sediment deficiency is regarded as one of the major problem for future habitat development. Examples of contemporary behaviour of UK coasts show evidence of coastal sediment starvation resulting from relatively stable RSLR, anthropogenic sealing of coastal sources, and intercepted coastal sediment pathways, which together force segmentation of coastal systems. From these examples key principles are deduced which may prejudice the existence of future habitats: accelerated future sediment demand due to RSLR may not be met by supply and, if short- to medium-term hold-the-line policies predominate, long-term strategies for managed realignment and habitat enhancement may prove impossible goals. Methods of contemporary sediment husbandry may help sustain some habitats in place but otherwise, instead of integrated coastal organization, managers may need to consider coastal breakdown, segmentation and habitat reduction as the basis of 21st century coastal evolution and planning.

Heterogeneity assumptions in the specification of bargaining models: a study of household level trade-offs between commuting time and salary

With many real world decisions being made in conjunction with other decision makers, or single agent decisions having an influence on other members of the decision maker's immediate entourage, there is strong interest in studying the relative weight assigned to different agents in such contexts. In the present paper, we focus on the case of one member of a two person household being asked to make choices affecting the travel time and salary of both members. We highlight the presence of significant heterogeneity across individuals not just in their underlying sensitivities, but also in the relative weight they assign to their partner, and show how this weight varies across attributes. This is in contrast to existing work which uses weights assigned to individual agents at the level of the overall utility rather than for individual attributes. We also show clear evidence of a risk of confounding between heterogeneity in marginal sensitivities and heterogeneity in the weights assigned to each member. We show how this can lead to misleading model results, and argue that this may also explain past results showing bargaining or weight parameters outside the usual [0,1] range in more traditional joint decision making contexts. In terms of substantive results, we find that male respondents place more weight on their partner's travel time, while female respondents place more weight on their partner's salary.

Impact of Black-Scholes assumptions on Delta Hedging

In this work we are going to evaluate the different assumptions used in the Black- Scholes-Merton pricing model, namely log-normality of returns, continuous interest rates, inexistence of dividends and transaction costs, and the consequences of using them to hedge different options in real markets, where they often fail to verify. We are going to conduct a series of tests in simulated underlying price series, where alternatively each assumption will be violated and every option delta hedging profit and loss analysed. Ultimately we will monitor how the aggressiveness of an option payoff causes its hedging to be more vulnerable to profit and loss variations, caused by the referred assumptions.

An investigation of the emotion assumptions of just-world theory /

The purpose ofthis study was to investigate the emotion assumptions underlying just-world theory. This theory proposes that people have a need to believe in a just world - a world where people get what they deserve. The first emotion assumption is that people, therefore, find injustices (Le., undeserved outcomes) threatening and thus emotionally arousing. Second, it is this arousal that is assumed to drive subsequent strategies for maintaining the belief in a just world. One strategy an individual may use to maintain this belief is derogating victims of injustice, or seeing their character in a more negative light. To test these two assumptions, 102 participants viewed a video depicting either a victim who presumably presented a high threat to people's belief in ajust world (she was innocent and, therefore, undeserving of her fate) or low threat (she was not innocent and, therefore, more deserving of her fate) while their heart rate and EDA was measured. Half of the participants were then given the opportunity to help the victim whereas the other half were not given this opportunity. The manipulations were followed by both explicit and indirect measures of evaluations ofthe victim as well as self-report measures of affect experienced while watching the victim video, and an individual difference scale assessing the strength of participants' just-world beliefs (as well as other measures that were part ofa larger study). Results indicated that participants did report feeling more threatened by the innocent victim. Although there was some evidence of victim derogation on the implicit measure of victim evaluation, there was no evidence that emotional arousal drove the negative evaluations of the victim who could not be helped. Some interaction effects with individual differences in just-world beliefs did occur, but these were not entirely consistent with the rationale behind the individual difference scales. These results provide only weak support for the first emotion assumption ofjust-world theory. Implications of these findings as well as limitations of the study and future directions concerning just-world theory are discussed.

The examination of assumptions in clinical nursing practice

This was a study designed to identify and explore the assumptions that Registered Nurses have about their current nursing role and practice. A qualitative case study approach was used to gather descriptive data. Thirteen study participants completed the indicators of critical thinking exercise and participated in a group session in which they identified positive and negative critical incidents in their clinical practice. The analysis of the anecdotes that were generated from the critical incident exercises revealed ten assumptions held by the Registered Nurses about their nursing practice. The ten assumptions were reflected back to the study participants to determine their level of agreement with each assumption. The ten assumptions were supported by the majority of the respondents. The Registered Nurses in this study appraised themselves affirmatively on eight out of nine indicators of critical thinking.

Multilevel bootstrap analysis with assumptions violated

Resumen tomado de la publicación

Mixed Logit Model Performance and Distributional Assumptions: Preferences and GM foods

Using mixed logit models to analyse choice data is common but requires ex ante specification of the functional forms of preference distributions. We make the case for greater use of bounded functional forms and propose the use of the Marginal Likelihood, calculated using Bayesian techniques, as a single measure of model performance across non nested mixed logit specifications. Using this measure leads to very different rankings of model specifications compared to alternative rule of thumb measures. The approach is illustrated using data from a choice experiment regarding GM food types which provides insights regarding the recent WTO dispute between the EU and the US, Canada and Argentina and whether labelling and trade regimes should be based on the production process or product composition.

Quantifying the response of the ORAC aerosol optical depth retrieval for MSG SEVIRI to aerosol model assumptions

We test the response of the Oxford-RAL Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) retrieval algorithm for MSG SEVIRI to changes in the aerosol properties used in the dust aerosol model, using data from the Dust Outflow and Deposition to the Ocean (DODO) flight campaign in August 2006. We find that using the observed DODO free tropospheric aerosol size distribution and refractive index increases simulated top of the atmosphere radiance at 0.55 µm assuming a fixed erosol optical depth of 0.5 by 10–15 %, reaching a maximum difference at low solar zenith angles. We test the sensitivity of the retrieval to the vertical distribution f the aerosol and find that this is unimportant in determining simulated radiance at 0.55 µm. We also test the ability of the ORAC retrieval when used to produce the GlobAerosol dataset to correctly identify continental aerosol outflow from the African continent and we find that it poorly constrains aerosol speciation. We develop spatially and temporally resolved prior distributions of aerosols to inform the retrieval which incorporates five aerosol models: desert dust, maritime, biomass burning, urban and continental. We use a Saharan Dust Index and the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model to describe dust and biomass burning aerosol outflow, and compare AOD using our speciation against the GlobAerosol retrieval during January and July 2006. We find AOD discrepancies of 0.2–1 over regions of intense biomass burning outflow, where AOD from our aerosol speciation and GlobAerosol speciation can differ by as much as 50 - 70 %.