MORTALITY IN THE MEDICARE POPULATION AND CHRONIC EXPOSURE TO FINE PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION

Prospective cohort studies have provided evidence on longer-term mortality risks of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but due to their complexity and costs, only a few have been conducted. By linking monitoring data to the U.S. Medicare system by county of residence, we developed a retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), comprising over 20 million enrollees in the 250 largest counties during 2000-2002. We estimated log-linear regression models having as outcome the age-specific mortality rate for each county and as the main predictor, the average level for the study period 2000. Area-level covariates were used to adjust for socio-economic status and smoking. We reported results under several degrees of adjustment for spatial confounding and with stratification into by eastern, central and western counties. We estimated that a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM25 is associated with a 7.6% increase in mortality (95% CI: 4.4 to 10.8%). We found a stronger association in the eastern counties than nationally, with no evidence of an association in western counties. When adjusted for spatial confounding, the estimated log-relative risks drop by 50%. We demonstrated the feasibility of using Medicare data to establish cohorts for follow-up for effects of air pollution. Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a global public health problem (1). In developing countries, levels of airborne particles still reach concentrations at which serious health consequences are well-documented; in developed countries, recent epidemiologic evidence shows continued adverse effects, even though particle levels have declined in the last two decades (2-6). Increased mortality associated with higher levels of PM air pollution has been of particular concern, giving an imperative for stronger protective regulations (7). Evidence on PM and health comes from studies of acute and chronic adverse effects (6). The London Fog of 1952 provides dramatic evidence of the unacceptable short-term risk of extremely high levels of PM air pollution (8-10); multi-site time-series studies of daily mortality show that far lower levels of particles are still associated with short-term risk (5)(11-13). Cohort studies provide complementary evidence on the longer-term risks of PM air pollution, indicating the extent to which exposure reduces life expectancy. The design of these studies involves follow-up of cohorts for mortality over periods of years to decades and an assessment of mortality risk in association with estimated long-term exposure to air pollution (2-4;14-17). Because of the complexity and costs of such studies, only a small number have been conducted. The most rigorously executed, including the Harvard Six Cities Study and the American Cancer Society’s (ACS) Cancer Prevention Study II, have provided generally consistent evidence for an association of long- term exposure to particulate matter air pollution with increased all-cause and cardio-respiratory mortality (2,4,14,15). Results from these studies have been used in risk assessments conducted for setting the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for PM and for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to air pollution (18,19). Additional prospective cohort studies are necessary, however, to confirm associations between long-term exposure to PM and mortality, to broaden the populations studied, and to refine estimates by regions across which particle composition varies. Toward this end, we have used data from the U.S. Medicare system, which covers nearly all persons 65 years of age and older in the United States. We linked Medicare mortality data to (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) air pollution monitoring data to create a new retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), consisting of 20 million persons from 250 counties and representing about 50% of the US population of elderly living in urban settings. In this paper, we report on the relationship between longer-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality risk over the period 2000 to 2002 in the MCAPS.

Incidence and risk factors of homicide-suicide in Swiss households: National Cohort study

BACKGROUND Homicide-suicides are rare but catastrophic events. This study examined the epidemiology of homicide-suicide in Switzerland. METHODS The study identified homicide-suicide events 1991-2008 in persons from the same household in the Swiss National Cohort, which links census and mortality records. The analysis examined the association of the risk of dying in a homicide-suicide event with socio-demographic variables, measured at the individual-level, household composition variables and area-level variables. Proportional hazards regression models were calculated for male perpetrators and female victims. Results are presented as age-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). RESULTS The study identified 158 deaths from homicide-suicide events, including 85 murder victims (62 women, 4 men, 19 children and adolescents) and 68 male and 5 female perpetrators. The incidence was 3 events per million households and year. Firearms were the most prominent method for both homicides and suicides. The risk of perpetrating homicide-suicide was higher in divorced than in married men (HR 3.64; 95%CI 1.56-8.49), in foreigners without permanent residency compared to Swiss citizens (HR 3.95; 1.52-10.2), higher in men without religious affiliations than in Catholics (HR 2.23; 1.14-4.36) and higher in crowded households (HR 4.85; 1.72-13.6 comparing ≥2 with <1 persons/room). There was no association with education, occupation or nationality, the number of children, the language region or degree of urbanicity. Associations were similar for female victims. CONCLUSIONS This national longitudinal study shows that living conditions associated with psychological stress and lower levels of social support are associated with homicide-suicide events in Switzerland.

A Swiss paradox? Higher income inequality of municipalities is associated with lower mortality in Switzerland.

It has long been surmised that income inequality within a society negatively affects public health. However, more recent studies suggest there is no association, especially when analyzing small areas. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of income inequality on mortality in Switzerland using the Gini index on municipality level. The study population included all individuals >30 years at the 2000 Swiss census (N = 4,689,545) living in 2,740 municipalities with 35.5 million person-years of follow-up and 456,211 deaths over follow-up. Cox proportional hazard regression models were adjusted for age, gender, marital status, nationality, urbanization, and language region. Results were reported as hazard ratios (HR) with 95 % confidence intervals. The mean Gini index across all municipalities was 0.377 (standard deviation 0.062, range 0.202-0.785). Larger cities, high-income municipalities and tourist areas had higher Gini indices. Higher income inequality was consistently associated with lower mortality risk, except for death from external causes. Adjusting for sex, marital status, nationality, urbanization and language region only slightly attenuated effects. In fully adjusted models, hazards of all-cause mortality by increasing Gini index quintile were HR = 0.99 (0.98-1.00), HR = 0.98 (0.97-0.99), HR = 0.95 (0.94-0.96), HR = 0.91 (0.90-0.92) compared to the lowest quintile. The relationship of income inequality with mortality in Switzerland is contradictory to what has been found in other developed high-income countries. Our results challenge current beliefs about the effect of income inequality on mortality on small area level. Further investigation is required to expose the underlying relationship between income inequality and population health.

THE DECLINE OF ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE MORTALITY IN TEXAS: HEALTH PLANNING IMPLICATIONS

This is a report on an empirical study of the decline of ischemic heart disease mortality in the State of Texas. The study period was from 1970 to 1977. The data was collected and analyzed at three different levels of analysis: state, health service area (HSA), and county. The study was designed to test five main hypotheses. They serve to test the role of the medical care system as a possible factor associated with the changing ischemic heart disease mortality trends.^ The principal findings of the study were that a reasonable relationship could be found between the number of emergency medical care personnel, the number of icu-ccu beds, the number of medical specialists and the percent of hospitals with icu-ccu and the decline in ischemic heart disease mortality for the State of Texas. However, non significant relationships were found between variables in the medical care system and ischemic heart disease mortality trends, at the health service area level of analysis. More specifically, the number of coronary care unit beds was found to be negatively correlated with the decline in ischemic heart disease mortality at the county level.^ While being limited in its scope, the study suggests that certain factors (emergency medical service, icu-ccu beds, percent of icu-ccu units, and medical specialists) have been shown to be associated with the observed decline in ischemic heart disease mortality. The study also suggests many avenues of future research that need to be explored. ^

Firmer foundations for a stronger European Banking Union. Bruegel Working Paper 2015/13, November 2015

The move to European Banking Union involving the supervision and resolution of banks at euro-area level was stimulated by the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area in 2012. However, the long-term objective of Banking Union is dealing with intensified cross-border banking.The share of the assets of national banking systems that come from other EU countries was rising before the financial and economic crisis of 2007, but went into decline thereafter in the context of a general retrenchment of international banking. Most recent data, however, suggests the decline has been halted. About 14 percent of the assets of banks in Banking Union come from other EU countries, while about a quarter of the assets of the top 25 banks in the Banking Union are held in other EU countries.While a crisis-prevention framework for the euro area has largely been completed, the crisis-management framework remains incomplete, potentially creating instability. There is no governance mechanism to resolve disputes between different levels of crisis-management agencies, and incentives to promote optimum oversight are lacking. Most importantly, risk-sharing mechanisms do not adequately address the sovereign-bank loop, with a lack of clarity about the divide between bail-in and bail-out.To complete Banking Union, the lender-of-last-resort and deposit insurance functions should move to the euro-area level, breaking the sovereign-bank loop. A fully-fledged single deposit insurance (and resolution) fund should be favoured over a reinsurance scheme for reasons of cost and simplicity.

A methodology for analysis of sugarcane productivity trends - 2. Comparing variety trials with commercial productivity

Previous research has reported both agreements and serious anomalies in relationships between production attributes of sugarcane varieties in variety trials (VTs) and commercial production (CP). This paper examines VT and CP data for tonnes of cane per hectare (TCH) and sugar content (CCS). Data, analysed by REML, included 107 VTs and 54 CP mill years for 9 varieties from the mill districts of Mulgrave, Babinda, and Tully for harvest years 1982-99. Important consistencies included high TCH of Q152, high CCS of Q117 and Q120, and low CCS of H56-752. Significant anomalies existed with respect to TCH for Q113, Q117, Q120, Q122, Q138, and H56-752 and to CCS for Q113 and Q124. Investigation of these anomalies was assisted by access to independent REML analyses of CP data for 65692 individual Tully cane blocks from 1988 to 1999 and by the knowledge of persons familiar with the preferential uses of varieties by farmers. Minor anomalies were due to limited year or mill area data. Q124 TCH was deemed to be decreased and its CCS increased by severe disease in Babinda CP in the extremely wet 1998 and 1999 seasons. Other serious anomalies have credible but unsubstantiated explanations. The most convincing, for Q113, Q117, Q138, and H56-752, are that these varieties were deployed unevenly with regard to late season harvesting, predominant use or avoidance on high fertility soils, or use confined to low fertility sandy soils, respectively. Uneven deployment results in confounding of these effects in the varietal CP statistics at mill area level. It is concluded that VTs cannot be enhanced to anticipate or evaluate most effects of uneven deployment. They give adequate predictions of relative CP performance for varieties deployed evenly across confounding influences. Routine analyses of individual block CP data would be useful and enhanced by addition of relevant information to the block records.

Adult mental health needs and expenditure in Australia

Background Relatively little international work has examined whether mental health resource allocation matches need. This study aimed to determine whether adult mental health resources in Australia are being distributed equitably. Method Individual measures of need were extrapolated to Australian Areas, and Area-based proxies of need were considered. Particular attention was paid to the prevalence of mental health problems, since this is arguably the most objective measure of need. The extent to which these measures predicted public sector, private sector and total adult mental health expenditure at an Area level was examined. Results In the public sector, 41.6% of expenditure variation was explained by the prevalence of affective disorders, personality disorders, cognitive impairment and psychosis, as well as the Area's level of economic resources and State/Territory effects. In the private sector, 72.4% of expenditure variation was explained by service use and State/Territory effects (with an alternative model incorporating service use and State/Territory supply of private psychiatrists explaining 69.4% of expenditure variation). A relatively high proportion (58.7%) of total expenditure variation could be explained by service utilisation and State/Territory effects. Conclusions For services to be delivered equitably, the majority of variation in expenditure would have to be accounted for by appropriate measures of need. The best model for public sector expenditure included an appropriate measure of need but had relatively poor explanatory power. The models for private sector and total expenditure had greater explanatory power, but relied on less appropriate measures of need. It is concluded that mental health services in Australia are not yet being delivered equitably.

Death by Suicide: A Report Based on the Northern Ireland Coroner’s Database

Funded by HSC R&D Division, Public Health Agency Why did we start? Potentially new information, especially relating to the characteristics of those who had died by suicide was made available through the Coroner’s Office.  The information made available to us covered deaths that occurred in the years 2005 to the end of 2011. What did we do? First we addressed the descriptive characteristics associated with this group of individuals. These descriptive characteristics included information relating to (1) means by which the death occurred (2) gender, age and employment status of the person (3) prior attempts (4)  alcohol and prescription use around time of death (5) adverse events (6) use of health services and (7) mental and physical health problems. Second we examined area level residential location in terms of Local Government Districts, and Wards within Northern Ireland. To address this area level of analysis, standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were used.      

Conceptos y prácticas de la actividad física que se reproducen en las clases sociales: aproximación desde el enfoque determinantes/ determinación social de la salud

El concepto de actividad física es concebido de diferentes formas. Mostrando que existen varios factores que afectan de manera directa e indirecta la percepción que los sujetos construyen entorno a él, generando así una aproximación a diferentes definiciones de la actividad física desde varias perspectivas y dimensiones, donde predomina una noción netamente biológica. Este estudio pretende analizar, como desde las clases sociales se concibe la actividad física en sus conceptos y prácticas considerando los modelos de determinantes y determinación social para la salud. Con fin de comprender como los autores de la literatura científica conciben la actividad física y la relación con las clases sociales, desde una perspectiva teórica de los determinantes sociales de la salud y la teoría de la determinación social, se realizó una revisión documental y análisis de contenido de los conceptos y prácticas de la actividad física que se han considerado en los últimos 10 años. Para ello se seleccionaron las bases de datos PubMed y BVS (Biblioteca Virtual de Salud) por sus énfasis en publicaciones de salud mundialmente. Mostrando que la actividad física es concebida dominantemente desde una perspectiva biológica que ejerce una mirada reduccionista. Las relaciones entre actividad física y las clases sociales están claramente establecidas, sin embargo, estas relaciones pueden discrepar teniendo en cuenta el concepto de clase social, el contexto y la orientación de los autores y las poblaciones objetos de estudio. Obteniendo como resultado que los estudios documentados, revisados y analizados muestran una clara tendencia al modelo de determinantes; no obstante, algunos estudios en sus análisis se orientan hacia el modelo de determinación social. En cuanto al concepto de clases sociales los autores consideran una combinación de factores culturales y económicos sin atreverse a adoptar un concepto específico.

An Unemployment Insurance Scheme for the Euro Area: A simulation exercise of two options. CEPS Special Report No. 98/December 2014

This study offers an in-depth economic analysis of the two main proposals for the creation of a European unemployment insurance scheme. One proposes the creation of a harmonised European unemployment benefit scheme that would apply automatically to every eligible unemployed person. The alternative, termed ‘reinsurance’ here, would transfer funds to national unemployment insurance schemes to finance benefits from the centre to the periphery when unemployment is measurably higher than normal. The rationale behind these proposals is to set up an EU-level shock absorber to overcome coordination failures and the crisis-budget constraints of individual countries. The authors consider the possible trade-offs and challenges of, for example, the definition of the trigger, the fiscal rule and the harmonisation of national benefits. They conclude that while both options are viable, ‘reinsurance’ offers a stronger stabilisation effect for the same amount of European distribution.

On the real effects of financial pressure: Evidence from euro area firm-level employment during the recent financial crisis.

Using a large panel of unquoted euro-area firms over the period 2003-11, this paper examines the impact of financial pressure on firms’ employment. The analysis finds evidence that financial pressure negatively affects firms’ employment decisions. This effect is stronger during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, especially for firms in the periphery area compared to their counterparts in the core European economies. We also find that impact of financial pressure on employment is more potent for firms classified as financially constrained and operating in periphery economies during the financial crisis.

Area deprivation and mortality in the provincial capital cities of Andalusia and Catalonia (Spain)

Objective: To study the linkage between material deprivation and mortality from all causes, for men and women separately, in the capital cities of the provinces in Andalusia and Catalonia (Spain). Methods: A small-area ecological study was devised using the census section as the unit for analysis. 188 983 Deaths occurring in the capital cities of the Andalusian provinces and 109 478 deaths recorded in the Catalan capital cities were examined. Principal components factorial analysis was used to devise a material deprivation index comprising the percentage of manual labourers, unemployment and illiteracy. A hierarchical Bayesian model was used to study the relationship between mortality and area deprivation. Main results: In most cities, results show an increased male mortality risk in the most deprived areas in relation to the least depressed. In Andalusia, the relative risks between the highest and lowest deprivation decile ranged from 1.24 (Malaga) to 1.40 (Granada), with 95% credibility intervals showing a significant excess risk. In Catalonia, relative risks ranged between 1.08 (Girona) and 1.50 (Tarragona). No evidence was found for an excess of female mortality in most deprived areas in either of the autonomous communities. Conclusions: Within cities, gender-related differences were revealed when deprivation was correlated geographically with mortality rates. These differences were found from an ecological perspective. Further research is needed in order to validate these results from an individual approach. The idea to be analysed is to identify those factors that explain these differences at an individual level.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.