An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models

While state-of-the-art models of Earth's climate system have improved tremendously over the last 20 years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the decadal dynamics of the Earth system realistically. Contrasting the skill of these models not only with each other but also with empirical models can reveal the space and time scales on which simulation models exploit their physical basis effectively and quantify their ability to add information to operational forecasts. The skill of decadal probabilistic hindcasts for annual global-mean and regional-mean temperatures from the EU Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project is contrasted with several empirical models. Both the ENSEMBLES models and a “dynamic climatology” empirical model show probabilistic skill above that of a static climatology for global-mean temperature. The dynamic climatology model, however, often outperforms the ENSEMBLES models. The fact that empirical models display skill similar to that of today's state-of-the-art simulation models suggests that empirical forecasts can improve decadal forecasts for climate services, just as in weather, medium-range, and seasonal forecasting. It is suggested that the direct comparison of simulation models with empirical models becomes a regular component of large model forecast evaluations. Doing so would clarify the extent to which state-of-the-art simulation models provide information beyond that available from simpler empirical models and clarify current limitations in using simulation forecasting for decision support. Ultimately, the skill of simulation models based on physical principles is expected to surpass that of empirical models in a changing climate; their direct comparison provides information on progress toward that goal, which is not available in model–model intercomparisons.

The gender perspective in economic and labour policies: state of the art in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

The psychosis high-risk state: a comprehensive state-of-the-art review

Context During the past 2 decades, a major transition in the clinical characterization of psychotic disorders has occurred. The construct of a clinical high-risk (HR) state for psychosis has evolved to capture the prepsychotic phase, describing people presenting with potentially prodromal symptoms. The importance of this HR state has been increasingly recognized to such an extent that a new syndrome is being considered as a diagnostic category in the DSM-5. Objective To reframe the HR state in a comprehensive state-of-the-art review on the progress that has been made while also recognizing the challenges that remain. Data Sources Available HR research of the past 20 years from PubMed, books, meetings, abstracts, and international conferences. Study Selection and Data Extraction Critical review of HR studies addressing historical development, inclusion criteria, epidemiologic research, transition criteria, outcomes, clinical and functional characteristics, neurocognition, neuroimaging, predictors of psychosis development, treatment trials, socioeconomic aspects, nosography, and future challenges in the field. Data Synthesis Relevant articles retrieved in the literature search were discussed by a large group of leading worldwide experts in the field. The core results are presented after consensus and are summarized in illustrative tables and figures. Conclusions The relatively new field of HR research in psychosis is exciting. It has the potential to shed light on the development of major psychotic disorders and to alter their course. It also provides a rationale for service provision to those in need of help who could not previously access it and the possibility of changing trajectories for those with vulnerability to psychotic illnesses.

How Should Consumers’ Willingness to Pay Be Measured? An Empirical Comparison of State-of-the-Art Approaches

This study compares the performance of four commonly used approaches to measure consumers’ willingness to pay with real purchase data (REAL): the open-ended (OE) question format; choicebased conjoint (CBC) analysis; Becker, DeGroot, and Marschak’s (BDM) incentive-compatible mechanism; and incentive-aligned choice-based conjoint (ICBC) analysis. With this five-in-one approach, the authors test the relative strengths of the four measurement methods, using REAL as the benchmark, on the basis of statistical criteria and decision-relevant metrics. The results indicate that the BDM and ICBC approaches can pass statistical and decision-oriented tests. The authors find that respondents are more price sensitive in incentive-aligned settings than in non-incentive-aligned settings and the REAL setting. Furthermore, they find a large number of “none” choices under ICBC than under hypothetical conjoint analysis. This study uncovers an intriguing possibility: Even when the OE format and CBC analysis generate hypothetical bias, they may still lead to the right demand curves and right pricing decisions.

The Sweet Script: A Critical Analysis of American Sportswriting

This thesis analyzes the sportswriting genre as a form of personal essay. It explores the art over time through writers Red Smith, A.J. Liebling, Roger Angell, George Plimpton, Bart Giamatti, Frank Deford, and Rick Reilly, as well as anthologized writers from 2008 and blogs.

“Let the American potter be a professional amateur" Laura Anne Fry and the American art pottery movement

"Artist Laura Anne Fry blended the concepts of professional and amateur, and helped raise the merit of ceramics in the United States. Fry influenced American art pottery with her contributions to Rookwood Pottery of Cincinnati—changing the course of the company. Her successful experiments with decorating techniques helped Rookwood become a national leader in art pottery, and eventually led to over a decade of controversy between Fry and Rookwood"

Academie to atelier : the artistic education of American women in nineteenth-century Paris

This paper puts forth an alternate reading of the artistic climate in late nineteenth-century Paris than that which has traditionally been suggested. I propose that the expansion of creative opportunity during this time reveals a climate of communal support, consent, and progressive reform for women artists, rather than a struggle to undermine central (masculine) control, as many scholars have claimed. Specifically, I explore the work of American expatriates living in Paris, including but not limited to Cecilia Beaux, Anna Klumpke, Alice Kellogg, and Ellen Day Hale. The birth of the private academy in Paris offered women the chance to develop their artistic ability and assert their independence. The Académie Julian in particular provided a comparatively accepting and progressive environment where American women studying abroad could study from the nude model, receive proper training, and explore their full creative potential. Through an examination of a) these women’s self-portraits, and b) depictions of them painted by their contemporaries – both male and female – I further investigate the artistic education of American women in the highly-gendered cultural milieu of late nineteenth-century France.

John La Farge as collector of Japanese art : motivations and reflections

Throughout his lifetime, American artist John La Farge (1835-1910) amassed an enormous collection of art and books. La Farge’s study of art and culture encompassed several genres and aesthetic elements. La Farge has been credited as the first American artist — even prior to James Abbott McNeill Whistler (1834-1903)— to integrate visual elements and cultural awareness of the Far East within his own Western-trained art. Although many scholars have studied La Farge’s art and life from various perspectives, including his interest in Asian art, the object of the present study is solely focused on La Farge’s collecting of Japanese art.

The Archive of Folk Culture : the national collection of American and world folklife.

Shipping list no.: 94-0038-P.

Archives of dermatology

Mode of access: Internet.