897 resultados para Analysis and evaluation of environmental risk


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Hydrocarbon spills on roads are a major safety concern for the driving public and can have severe cost impacts both on pavement maintenance and to the economy through disruption to services. The time taken to clean-up spills and re-open roads in a safe driving condition is an issue of increasing concern given traffic levels on major urban arterials. Thus, the primary aim of the research was to develop a sorbent material that facilitates rapid clean-up of road spills. The methodology involved extensive research into a range of materials (organic, inorganic and synthetic sorbents), comprehensive testing in the laboratory, scale-up and field, and product design (i.e. concept to prototype). The study also applied chemometrics to provide consistent, comparative methods of sorbent evaluation and performance. In addition, sorbent materials at every stage were compared against a commercial benchmark. For the first time, the impact of diesel on asphalt pavement has been quantified and assessed in a systematic way. Contrary to conventional thinking and anecdotal observations, the study determined that the action of diesel on asphalt was quite rapid (i.e. hours rather than weeks or months). This significant finding demonstrates the need to minimise the impact of hydrocarbon spills and the potential application of the sorbent option. To better understand the adsorption phenomenon, surface characterisation techniques were applied to selected sorbent materials (i.e. sand, organo-clay and cotton fibre). Brunauer Emmett Teller (BET) and thermal analysis indicated that the main adsorption mechanism for the sorbents occurred on the external surface of the material in the diffusion region (sand and organo-clay) and/or capillaries (cotton fibre). Using environmental scanning electron microscopy (ESEM), it was observed that adsorption by the interfibre capillaries contributed to the high uptake of hydrocarbons by the cotton fibre. Understanding the adsorption mechanism for these sorbents provided some guidance and scientific basis for the selection of materials. The study determined that non-woven cotton mats were ideal sorbent materials for clean-up of hydrocarbon spills. The prototype sorbent was found to perform significantly better than the commercial benchmark, displaying the following key properties: • superior hydrocarbon pick-up from the road pavement; • high hydrocarbon retention capacity under an applied load; • adequate field skid resistance post treatment; • functional and easy to use in the field (e.g. routine handling, transportation, application and recovery); • relatively inexpensive to produce due to the use of raw cotton fibre and simple production process; • environmentally friendly (e.g. renewable materials, non-toxic to environment and operators, and biodegradable); and • rapid response time (e.g. two minutes total clean-up time compared with thirty minutes for reference sorbents). The major outcomes of the research project include: a) development of a specifically designed sorbent material suitable for cleaning up hydrocarbon spills on roads; b) submission of patent application (serial number AU2005905850) for the prototype product; and c) preparation of Commercialisation Strategy to advance the sorbent product to the next phase (i.e. R&D to product commercialisation).

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This paper describes the development and evaluation of a new instrument - the Clinician Suicide Risk Assessment Checklist (CSRAC). The instrument assesses the clinician's competency in three areas: clinical interviewing, assessment of specific suicide risk factors, and formulating a management plan. A draft checklist was constructed by integrating information from 1) literature review 2) expert clinician focus group and 3) consultation with experts. It was utilised in a simulated clinical scenario with clinician trainees and a trained actor in order to test for inter-rater agreement. Agreement was calculated and the checklist was re-drafted with the aim of maximising agreement. A second phase of simulated clinical scenarios was then conducted and inter-rater agreement was calculated for the revised checklist. In the first phase of the study, 18 of 35 items had inadequate inter-rater agreement (60%>), while in the second phase, using the revised version, only 3 of 39 items failed to achieve adequate inter-rater agreement. Further evidence of reliability and validity are required. Continued development of the CSRAC will be necessary before it can be utilised to assess the effectiveness of risk assessment training programs.

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This paper reports on the development and implementation of a self-report risk assessment tool that was developed in an attempt to increase the efficacy of crash prediction within Australian fleet settings. This study forms a part of a broader program of research into work related road safety and identification of driving risk. The first phase of the study involved a series of focus groups being conducted with 217 professional drivers which revealed that the following factors were proposed to influence driving performance: Fatigue, Knowledge of risk, Mood, Impatience and frustration, Speed limits, Experience, Other road users, Passengers, Health, and Culture. The second phase of the study involved piloting the newly developed 38 item Driving Risk Assessment Scale - Work Version (DRAS-WV) with 546 professional drivers. Factor analytic techniques identified a 9 factor solution that was comprised of speeding, aggression, time pressure, distraction, casualness, awareness, maintenance, fatigue and minor damage. Speeding and aggressive driving manoeuvres were identified to be the most frequent aberrant driving behaviours engaged in by the sample. However, a series of logistic regression analyses undertaken to determine the DRAS-WV scale’s ability to predict self-reported crashes revealed limited predictive efficacy e.g., 10% of crashes. This paper outlines proposed reasons for this limited predictive ability of the DRAS-WV as well as provides suggestions regarding the future of research that aims to develop methods to identify “at risk” drivers.

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BACKGROUND: Monitoring studies revealed high concentrations of pesticides in the drainage canal of paddy fields. It is important to have a way to predict these concentrations in different management scenarios as an assessment tool. A simulation model for predicting the pesticide concentration in a paddy block (PCPF-B) was evaluated and then used to assess the effect of water management practices for controlling pesticide runoff from paddy fields. RESULTS: The PCPF-B model achieved an acceptable performance. The model was applied to a constrained probabilistic approach using the Monte Carlo technique to evaluate the best management practices for reducing runoff of pretilachlor into the canal. The probabilistic model predictions using actual data of pesticide use and hydrological data in the canal showed that the water holding period (WHP) and the excess water storage depth (EWSD) effectively reduced the loss and concentration of pretilachlor from paddy fields to the drainage canal. The WHP also reduced the timespan of pesticide exposure in the drainage canal. CONCLUSIONS: It is recommended that: (1) the WHP be applied for as long as possible, but for at least 7 days, depending on the pesticide and field conditions; (2) an EWSD greater than 2 cm be maintained to store substantial rainfall in order to prevent paddy runoff, especially during the WHP.

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Several statistical downscaling models have been developed in the past couple of decades to assess the hydrologic impacts of climate change by projecting the station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). This paper presents and compares different statistical downscaling models that use multiple linear regression (MLR), positive coefficient regression (PCR), stepwise regression (SR), and support vector machine (SVM) techniques for estimating monthly rainfall amounts in the state of Florida. Mean sea level pressure, air temperature, geopotential height, specific humidity, U wind, and V wind are used as the explanatory variables/predictors in the downscaling models. Data for these variables are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis dataset and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model, version 3 (CGCM3) GCM simulations. The principal component analysis (PCA) and fuzzy c-means clustering method (FCM) are used as part of downscaling model to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and identify the clusters in the data, respectively. Evaluation of the performances of the models using different error and statistical measures indicates that the SVM-based model performed better than all the other models in reproducing most monthly rainfall statistics at 18 sites. Output from the third-generation CGCM3 GCM for the A1B scenario was used for future projections. For the projection period 2001-10, MLR was used to relate variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales. Use of MLR in linking the predictor variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales yielded better reproduction of monthly rainfall statistics at most of the stations (12 out of 18) compared to those by spatial interpolation technique used in earlier studies.

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We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

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Aim: To develop and evaluate the psychometric properties of an instrument for the measurement of self-neglect (SN).Conceptual Framework: An elder self-neglect (ESN) conceptual framework guided the literature review and scale development. The framework has two key dimensions physical/psycho-social and environmental and seven sub dimensions which are representative of the factors that can contribute to intentional and unintentional SN. Methods: A descriptive cross-sectional design was adopted to achieve the research aim. The study was conducted in two phases. Phase 1 involved the development of the questionnaire content and structure. Phase 2 focused on establishing the psychometric properties of the instrument. Content validity was established by a panel of 8 experts and piloted with 9 health and social care professionals. The instrument was subsequently posted with a stamped addressed envelope to 566 health and social care professionals who met specific eligibility criteria across the four HSE areas. A total of 341 questionnaires were returned, a response rate of 60% and 305 (50%) completed responses were included in exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Item and factor analyses were performed to elicit the instruments underlying factor structure and establish preliminary construct validity. Findings: Item and factor analyses resulted in a logically coherent, 37 items, five factor solution, explaining 55.6% of the cumulative variance. The factors were labelled: ‘Environment’, ‘Social Networks’, ‘Emotional and Behavioural Liability’, ‘Health Avoidance’ and ‘Self-Determinism’. The factor loadings were >0.40 for all items on each of the five subscales. Preliminary construct validity was supported by findings. Conclusion: The main outcome of this research is a 37 item Self-Neglect (SN-37) measurement instrument that was developed by EFA and underpinned by an ESN conceptual framework. Preliminary psychometric evaluation of the instrument is promising. Future work should be directed at establishing the construct and criterion related validity of the instrument.

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Immunoaffinity chromatography (IAC) and affinity chromatography (AC:) are widely used for extraction of drugs from biological samples. Fifteen column types were purchased from five different manufacturers and;their ability to bind specific drugs including beta-agonists and anabolic steroids over a range of analyte concentrations in fortified bovine urine samples was assessed. The performance data obtained from these columns were compared with columns produced in this laboratory (in house columns). The in house columns gave the highest recoveries, ranging from 92 to 100% at the 1 ng spiking concentration, for five of the seven analytes assessed. Forty percent (11 of 27) of all the commercial column assessments recorded recoveries of less than 50% even when the lowest spiking concentration was applied (1 ng). For one manufacturer, only one of seven different columns purchased delivered extraction efficiencies greater than 50%. The extraction efficiencies of the clenbuterol columns were the highest with all commercially prepared columns showing at least 50% binding of radiolabelled tracer. Recoveries of alpha-nortestosterone were the lowest. The variability of these products with respect to quality control requires constant monitoring.

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Water use invariably results in major impacts on river flows. Environmental Flows (EF) are defined as the quantity and quality of water that is needed to preserve the structure and the function of the river and riparian zone ecosystem and sufficient quantity of water to enable the survival and reproduction of aquatic organisms in different hydraulic habitats. This paper describes the criteria and methods used to determine EF and experiences with their application in Slovenia. The diversity of running waters of Slovenia demand special treatment and determination of EF for each individual section of the river system. Using hydrological, morphological and ecological criteria, two different approaches are used for the determination of EF in Slovenia, a rapid assessment method and a detailed assessment method. For both methods, data are then analyzed by an expert panel in order to determine an EF. Since 1994, more than 180 study sites have been examined for research and application of EF in Slovenia. Determination of EF for existing users has prioritized their water requirements so they can remain economically viable. Where new schemes are proposed, there has been much greater scope to prioritize ecosystem requirements. EF determination is receiving growing attention and will continue to increase in importance, driven by research that aids our understanding of flow-biota relationships and recent environmental policy and legislation at both the national and European level.

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A flow injection analysis (FIA) system comprising a cysteine selective electrode as detection system was developed for determination of this amino acid in pharmaceuticals. Several electrodes were constructed for this purpose, having PVC membranes with different ionic exchangers and mediator solvents. Better working characteristics were attained with membranes comprising o-nitrophenyl octyl ether as mediator solvent and a tetraphenylborate based ionic-sensor. Injection of 500 µL standard solutions into an ionic strength adjuster carrier (3x10-3 M) of barium chloride flowing at 2.4mL min-1, showed linearity ranges from 5.0x10-5 to 5.0x10-3 M, with slopes of 76.4±0.6mV decade-1 and R2>0.9935. Slope decreased significantly under the requirement of a pH adjustment, selected at 4.5. Interference of several compounds (sodium, potassium, magnesium, barium, glucose, fructose, and sucrose) was estimated by potentiometric selectivity coefficients and considered negligible. Analysis of real samples were performed and considered accurate, with a relative error to an independent method of +2.7%.

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Poor cold flow properties of vegetable oils are a major problem preventing the usage of many abundantly available vegetable oils as base stocks for industrial lubricants. The major objective of this research is to improve the cold flow properties of vegetable oils by various techniques like additive addition and different chemical modification processes. Conventional procedure for determining pour point is ASTM D97 method. ASTM D97 method is time consuming and reproducibility of pour point temperatures is poor between laboratories. Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) is a fast, accurate and reproducible method to analyze the thermal activities during cooling/heating of oil. In this work coconut oil has been chosen as representative vegetable oil for the analysis and improvement cold flow properties since it is abundantly available in the tropics and has a very high pour point of 24 °C. DSC is used for the analysis of unmodified and modified vegetable oil. The modified oils (with acceptable pour points) were then subjected to different tests for the valuation of important lubricant properties such as viscometric, tribological (friction and wear properties), oxidative and corrosion properties.A commercial polymethacrylate based PPD was added in different percentages and the pour points were determined in each case. Styrenated phenol(SP) was added in different concentration to coconut oil and each solution was subjected to ASTM D97 test and analysis by DSC. Refined coconut oil and other oils like castor oil, sunflower oil and keranja oil were mixed in different proportions and interesterification procedure was carried out. Interesterification of coconut oil with other vegetable oils was not found to be effective in lowering the pour point of coconut oil as the reduction attained was only to the extent of 2 to 3 °C.Chemical modification by acid catalysed condensation reaction with coconut oil castor oil mixture resulted in significant reduction of pour point (from 24 ºC to -3 ºC). Instead of using triacylglycerols, when their fatty acid derivatives (lauric acid- the major fatty acid content of coconut oil and oleic acid- the major fatty acid constituents of monoand poly- unsaturated vegetable oils like olive oil, sunflower oil etc.) were used for the synthesis , the pour point could be brought down to -42 ºC. FTIR and NMR spectroscopy confirmed the ester structure of the product which is fundamental to the biodegradability of vegetable oils. The tribological performance of the synthesised product with a suitable AW/EP additive was comparable to the commercial SAE20W30 oil. The viscometric properties (viscosity and viscosity index) were also (with out additives) comparable to commercial lubricants. The TGA experiment confirmed the better oxidative performance of the product compared to vegetable oils. The sample passed corrosion test as per ASTM D130 method.

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This thesis entitled Physicochemical and molecular characterization of bacteriophages ΦSP-1and ΦSP-3, specific for pathogenic Salmonella and evaluation of their potential as biocontrol agent . Salmonella were screened using standard methodologies from various environmental samples including chicken caecum. Salmonella strains, which were previously isolated and stocked in the lab, were also included in this study as host, for screening Salmonella specific lytic phages. The Salmonella strain in this study designated as S49 which helped in phage propagation by acting as host bacteria was identified as Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica by 16S rRNA gene analysis and serotyping . A total of three Salmonella specific phage named as ΦSP-1, ΦSP-2 and ΦSP-3 were isolated from chicken intestine samples via an enrichment protocol employing the double agar overlay method. ΦSP-1 and ΦSP-3 showing consistent lytic nature were selected for further study and were purified by repeated plating after picking of single isolated plaques from the lawns of Salmonella S49 plates. Both the phages produced small, clear plaques indicating their lytic nature. ΦSP-1 and ΦSP-3 were concentrated employing PEG-NaCl precipitation method before further characterization. The focus of present study was to isolate, characterize and verify the efficacy of lytic bacteriophages against the robust pathogen Salmonella, capable of surviving under various hostile conditions. Two phages, ΦSP-1 and ΦSP-3, belonging to two families, Podovoridae and Siphoviridae were isolated.

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Nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) is a popular method for reconstructing the demographic history of spatially distributed populations from genetic data. Although some parts of the analysis are automated, there is no unique and widely followed algorithm for doing this in its entirety, beginning with the data, and ending with the inferences drawn from the data. This article describes a method that automates NCPA, thereby providing a framework for replicating analyses in an objective way. To do so, a number of decisions need to be made so that the automated implementation is representative of previous analyses. We review how the NCPA procedure has evolved since its inception and conclude that there is scope for some variability in the manual application of NCPA. We apply the automated software to three published datasets previously analyzed manually and replicate many details of the manual analyses, suggesting that the current algorithm is representative of how a typical user will perform NCPA. We simulate a large number of replicate datasets for geographically distributed, but entirely random-mating, populations. These are then analyzed using the automated NCPA algorithm. Results indicate that NCPA tends to give a high frequency of false positives. In our simulations we observe that 14% of the clades give a conclusive inference that a demographic event has occurred, and that 75% of the datasets have at least one clade that gives such an inference. This is mainly due to the generation of multiple statistics per clade, of which only one is required to be significant to apply the inference key. We survey the inferences that have been made in recent publications and show that the most commonly inferred processes (restricted gene flow with isolation by distance and contiguous range expansion) are those that are commonly inferred in our simulations. However, published datasets typically yield a richer set of inferences with NCPA than obtained in our random-mating simulations, and further testing of NCPA with models of structured populations is necessary to examine its accuracy.

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Aims: To test the possibility that wines available in the marketplace may contain culturable yeasts and to evaluate the 5.8S-ITS rDNA sequence analysis as adequate means for the identification of isolates. Methods and Results: As a case study, typical Greek wines were surveyed. Sequence analysis of the 5.8S-ITS rDNA was tested for its robustness in species or strain identification. Sixteen isolates could be assigned into the species Brettanomyces bruxellensis, Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Rhodotorula pinicola, whereas four isolates could not be safely identified. B. bruxellensis was the dominant species present in house wines, while non-Saccharomyces sp. were viable in aged wines of high alcohol content. Conclusions: Yeast population depends on postfermentation procedures or storage conditions. Although 5.8S-ITS rDNA sequence analysis is generally a rapid method to identify wine yeast isolates at the species level, or even below that, it may not be sufficient for some genera. Significance and Impact of the Study: This is the first report to show that commercial wines may possess diverse and potentially harmful yeast populations. The knowledge of yeasts able to reside in this niche environment is essential towards integrated quality assurance programmes. For selected species, the 5.8S-ITS rDNA sequence analysis is a rapid and accurate means.

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Integrated Arable Farming Systems (IAFS), which involve a reduction in the use of off-farm inputs, are attracting considerable research interest in the UK. The objectives of these systems experiments are to compare their financial performance with that from conventional or current farming practices. To date, this comparison has taken little account of any environmental benefits (or disbenefits) of the two systems. The objective of this paper is to review the assessment methodologies available for the analysis of environmental impacts. To illustrate the results of this exercise, the methodology and environmental indicators chosen are then applied to data from one of the LINK - Integrated Farming Systems experimental sites. Data from the Pathhead site in Southern Scotland are used to evaluate the use of invertebrates and nitrate loss as environmental indicators within IAFS. The results suggest that between 1992 and 1995 the biomass of earthworms fell by 28 kg per hectare on the integrated rotation and rose by 31 kg per hectare on the conventional system. This led to environmental costs ranging between £2.24 and £13.44 per hectare for the integrated system and gains of between £2.48 and £14.88 for the conventional system. In terms of nitrate, the integrated system had an estimated loss of £72.21 per hectare in comparison to £149.40 per hectare on the conventional system. Conclusions are drawn about the advantages and disadvantages of this type of analytical framework. Keywords: Farming systems; IAFS; Environmental valuation; Economics; Earthworms; Nitrates; Soil fauna