Neural activity associated with the passive prediction of ambiguity and risk for aversive events.

In economic decision making, outcomes are described in terms of risk (uncertain outcomes with certain probabilities) and ambiguity (uncertain outcomes with uncertain probabilities). Humans are more averse to ambiguity than to risk, with a distinct neural system suggested as mediating this effect. However, there has been no clear disambiguation of activity related to decisions themselves from perceptual processing of ambiguity. In a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiment, we contrasted ambiguity, defined as a lack of information about outcome probabilities, to risk, where outcome probabilities are known, or ignorance, where outcomes are completely unknown and unknowable. We modified previously learned pavlovian CS+ stimuli such that they became an ambiguous cue and contrasted evoked brain activity both with an unmodified predictive CS+ (risky cue), and a cue that conveyed no information about outcome probabilities (ignorance cue). Compared with risk, ambiguous cues elicited activity in posterior inferior frontal gyrus and posterior parietal cortex during outcome anticipation. Furthermore, a similar set of regions was activated when ambiguous cues were compared with ignorance cues. Thus, regions previously shown to be engaged by decisions about ambiguous rewarding outcomes are also engaged by ambiguous outcome prediction in the context of aversive outcomes. Moreover, activation in these regions was seen even when no actual decision is made. Our findings suggest that these regions subserve a general function of contextual analysis when search for hidden information during outcome anticipation is both necessary and meaningful.

Speed ambiguity in hurricane wind retrieval from SAR imagery

Under strong ocean surface wind conditions, the normalized radar cross section of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is dampened at certain incident angles, compared with the signals under moderate winds. This causes a wind speed ambiguity problem in wind speed retrievals from SAR, because two solutions may exist for each backscattered signal. This study shows that the problem is ubiquitous in the images acquired by operational space-borne SAR sensors. Moreover, the problem is more severe for the near range and range travelling winds. To remove this ambiguity, a method was developed based on characteristics of the hurricane wind structure. A SAR image of Hurricane Rita (2005) was analysed to demonstrate the wind speed ambiguity problem and the method to improve the wind speed retrievals. Our conclusions suggest that a speed ambiguity removal algorithm must be used for wind retrievals from SAR in intense storms and hurricanes.

Computational Consequences of Agreement and Ambiguity in Natural Language

The computer science technique of computational complexity analysis can provide powerful insights into the algorithm-neutral analysis of information processing tasks. Here we show that a simple, theory-neutral linguistic model of syntactic agreement and ambiguity demonstrates that natural language parsing may be computationally intractable. Significantly, we show that it may be syntactic features rather than rules that can cause this difficulty. Informally, human languages and the computationally intractable Satisfiability (SAT) problem share two costly computional mechanisms: both enforce agreement among symbols across unbounded distances (Subject-Verb agreement) and both allow ambiguity (is a word a Noun or a Verb?).

Resolving Ambiguity in Nonmonotonic Inheritance Hierarchies

This paper describes a theory of inheritance theories. We present an original theory of inheritance in nonmonotonic hierarchies. The structures on which this theory is based delineate a framework that subsumes most inheritance theories in the literature, providing a new foundation for inheritance. * Our path-based theory is sound and complete w.r.t. a direct model-theoretic semantics. * Both the credulous and the skeptical conclusions of this theory are polynomial-time computable. * We prove that true skeptical inheritance is not contained in the language of path-based inheritance. Because our techniques are modular w.r.t. the definition of specificity, they generalize to provide a unified framework for a broad class of inheritance theories. By describing multiple inheritance theories in the same "language" of credulous extensions, we make principled comparisons rather than the ad-hoc examination of specific examples makes up most of the comparative inheritance work.

An ambiguity-based theory of the linguistic verbal joke in English

Instytut Filologii Angielskiej

Exploitation of linguistic ambiguity in Polish and English jokes

English & Polish jokes based on linguistic ambiguity are constrasted. Linguistic ambiguity results from a multiplicity of semantic interpretations motivated by structural pattern. The meanings can be "translated" either by variations of the corresponding minimal strings or by specifying the type & extent of modification needed between the two interpretations. C. F. Hockett's (1972) translatability notion that a joke is linguistic if it cannot readily be translated into other languages without losing its humor is used to interpret some cross-linguistic jokes. It is claimed that additional intralinguistic criteria are needed to classify jokes. By using a syntactic representation, the humor can be explained & compared cross-linguistically. Since the mapping of semantic values onto lexical units is highly language specific, translatability is much less frequent with lexical ambiguity. Similarly, phonological jokes are not usually translatable. Pragmatic ambiguity can be translated on the basis of H. P. Grice's (1975) cooperative principle of conversation that calls for discourse interpretations. If the distinction between linguistic & nonlinguistic jokes is based on translatability, pragmatic jokes must be excluded from the classification. Because of their universality, pragmatic jokes should be included into the linguistic classification by going beyond the translatability criteria & using intralinguistic features to describe them.

Ambiguity-generating devices in linguistic verbal jokes

Unpublished paper, written in 1996.

A soft robust model for optimization under ambiguity

In this paper, we propose a framework for robust optimization that relaxes the standard notion of robustness by allowing the decision maker to vary the protection level in a smooth way across the uncertainty set. We apply our approach to the problem of maximizing the expected value of a payoff function when the underlying distribution is ambiguous and therefore robustness is relevant. Our primary objective is to develop this framework and relate it to the standard notion of robustness, which deals with only a single guarantee across one uncertainty set. First, we show that our approach connects closely to the theory of convex risk measures. We show that the complexity of this approach is equivalent to that of solving a small number of standard robust problems. We then investigate the conservatism benefits and downside probability guarantees implied by this approach and compare to the standard robust approach. Finally, we illustrate theme thodology on an asset allocation example consisting of historical market data over a 25-year investment horizon and find in every case we explore that relaxing standard robustness with soft robustness yields a seemingly favorable risk-return trade-off: each case results in a higher out-of-sample expected return for a relatively minor degradation of out-of-sample downside performance. © 2010 INFORMS.

Chimpanzees and bonobos distinguish between risk and ambiguity.

Although recent research has investigated animal decision-making under risk, little is known about how animals choose under conditions of ambiguity when they lack information about the available alternatives. Many models of choice behaviour assume that ambiguity does not impact decision-makers, but studies of humans suggest that people tend to be more averse to choosing ambiguous options than risky options with known probabilities. To illuminate the evolutionary roots of human economic behaviour, we examined whether our closest living relatives, chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and bonobos (Pan paniscus), share this bias against ambiguity. Apes chose between a certain option that reliably provided an intermediately preferred food type, and a variable option that could vary in the probability that it provided a highly preferred food type. To examine the impact of ambiguity on ape decision-making, we interspersed trials in which chimpanzees and bonobos had no knowledge about the probabilities. Both species avoided the ambiguous option compared with their choices for a risky option, indicating that ambiguity aversion is shared by humans, bonobos and chimpanzees.

Help or hindrance? Supplier involvement and causal ambiguity within inter-organisational NPD teams

Suppliers are increasingly involved in buyer firms’ interorganizational new product development (NPD) teams. Yet the transfer of knowledge within this context may be subject to varying degrees of causal ambiguity, potentially limiting the effect of supplier involvement on performance. We develop a theoretical model exploring the effect of supplier involvement practices on the level of causal ambiguity within interorganizational NPD teams, and the subsequent impact on competitor imitation, new product advantage, and project performance. Our model also serves as a test of the paradox that causal ambiguity both inhibits imitation by competitors, but also adversely affects organisational outcomes. Results from an empirical study of 119 R&D intensive manufacturing firms in the United Kingdom largely support these hypotheses. Results from structural equation modeling show that supplier involvement orientation and long-term commitment lower causal ambiguity within interorganizational NPD teams. In turn, this lower causal ambiguity generates a new product advantage and increases project performance for the buyer firm, but has no significant effect on competitor imitation. Instead, competitor imitation is delayed by the extent to which the firm develops a new product advantage within the market. These results shed light on the causal ambiguity paradox showing that lower causal ambiguity during interorganizational new product development increases both product and project performance, but without reducing barriers to imitation. Product development managers are encouraged to utilize supplier involvement practices to minimise ambiguity in the NPD project, and to target their supplier involvement efforts on solving causally ambiguous technological problems to sustain a competitive advantage.

Ambiguity, social opinion and the use of common property resources

In this paper we argue that ambiguity, combined with social opinion formation, can be used as the foundation of a game-theoretic equilibrium concept that transcends the standard Nash equilibrium concept, applied to a model of the tragedy of the commons. Our approach sheds light on the international environmental crisis and the relevant ongoing international negotiations. We conclude that social opinion formation in most cases has a significant impact on equilibrium common property resource usage.