Multi-year droughts in Europe: analysis of development and causes

Whilst hydrological systems can show resilience to short-term streamflow deficiencies during within-year droughts, prolonged deficits during multi-year droughts are a significant threat to water resources security in Europe. This study uses a threshold-based objective classification of regional hydrological drought to qualitatively examine the characteristics, spatio-temporal evolution and synoptic climatic drivers of multi-year drought events in 1962–64, 1975–76 and 1995–97, on a European scale but with particular focus on the UK. Whilst all three events are multi-year, pan-European phenomena, their development and causes can be contrasted. The critical factor in explaining the unprecedented severity of the 1975–76 event is the consecutive occurrence of winter and summer drought. In contrast, 1962–64 was a succession of dry winters, mitigated by quiescent summers, whilst 1995–97 lacked spatial coherence and was interrupted by wet interludes. Synoptic climatic conditions vary within and between multi-year droughts, suggesting that regional factors modulate the climate signal in streamflow drought occurrence. Despite being underpinned by qualitatively similar climatic conditions and commonalities in evolution and characteristics, each of the three droughts has a unique spatio-temporal signature. An improved understanding of the spatio-temporal evolution and characteristics of multi-year droughts has much to contribute to monitoring and forecasting capability, and to improved mitigation strategies.

Integrated palaeoecology and archaeology: a powerful approach for understanding pre-Columbian Amazonia

The old paradigm that Amazonia's tropical ecosystems prevented cultural development beyond small-scale shifting agricultural economies, that had little environmental impact, no longer holds true for much of Amazonia. A diversity of archaeological evidence, including terra preta soils, raised fields, causeways, large habitation mounds, geometric earthworks, and megalithic monuments, all point to considerable cultural complexity and environmental impacts. However, uncertainty remains over the chronology of these cultures, their diet and economy, and the scale of environmental impact and land use associated with them. Here, we argue that a cross-disciplinary approach, closely coupling palaeoecology and archaeology, can potentially resolve these uncertainties. We show how, with careful site selection (pairing small and large lakes, close proximity to archaeological sites, transects of soil pits) and choice of techniques (e.g., pollen, phytoliths, starch grains, charcoal, stable isotopes), these two disciplines can be successfully integrated to provide a powerful tool for investigating the relationship between pre-Columbian cultures and their environment.

Response to comment on “The response of vegetation on the Andean flank in western Amazonia to Pleistocene climate change” – M.L. Cárdenas et al., Science 331, 1055 (25 February 2011)”.

Puyasena et al. question our interpretation of climate-driven vegetation change on the Andean flank in western Amazonia during the middle Pleistocene and suggest that the use of Podocarpus spp. as a proxy of past climate change should be reassessed. We defend our assertion that vegetation change at the Erazo study site was predominantly driven by climate change due to concomitant changes recorded by multiple taxa in the fossil record.

The response of vegetation on the Andean flank in western Amazonia to Pleistocene climate change

A reconstruction of past environmental change from Ecuador reveals the response of lower montane forest on the Andean flank in western Amazonia to glacial-interglacial global climate change. Radiometric dating of volcanic ash indicates that deposition occurred ~324,000 to 193,000 years ago during parts of Marine Isotope Stages 9, 7, and 6. Fossil pollen and wood preserved within organic sediments suggest that the composition of the forest altered radically in response to glacial-interglacial climate change. The presence of Podocarpus macrofossils ~1000 meters below the lower limit of their modern distribution indicates a relative cooling of at least 5°C during glacials and persistence of wet conditions. Interglacial deposits contain thermophilic palms suggesting warm and wet climates. Hence, global temperature change can radically alter vegetation communities and biodiversity in this region.

Environmental impact of geometric earthwork construction in pre-Columbian Amazonia

There is considerable controversy over whether pre-Columbian (pre-A.D. 1492) Amazonia was largely “pristine” and sparsely populated by slash-and-burn agriculturists, or instead a densely populated, domesticated landscape, heavily altered by extensive deforestation and anthropogenic burning. The discovery of hundreds of large geometric earthworks beneath intact rainforest across southern Amazonia challenges its status as a pristine landscape, and has been assumed to indicate extensive pre-Columbian deforestation by large populations. We tested these assumptions using coupled local- and regional-scale paleoecological records to reconstruct land use on an earthwork site in northeast Bolivia within the context of regional, climate-driven biome changes. This approach revealed evidence for an alternative scenario of Amazonian land use, which did not necessitate labor-intensive rainforest clearance for earthwork construction. Instead, we show that the inhabitants exploited a naturally open savanna landscape that they maintained around their settlement despite the climatically driven rainforest expansion that began ∼2,000 y ago across the region. Earthwork construction and agriculture on terra firme landscapes currently occupied by the seasonal rainforests of southern Amazonia may therefore not have necessitated large-scale deforestation using stone tools. This finding implies far less labor—and potentially lower population density—than previously supposed. Our findings demonstrate that current debates over the magnitude and nature of pre-Columbian Amazonian land use, and its impact on global biogeochemical cycling, are potentially flawed because they do not consider this land use in the context of climate-driven forest–savanna biome shifts through the mid-to-late Holocene.

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

Dietary practices and nutritional status of 0-24-month-old children from Brazilian Amazonia

Objective: To assess the nutritional status and dietary practices of 0-24-month-old children living in Brazilian Amazonia. Design: Cross-sectional study. Information oil children`s dietary intakes was obtained from diet history data. Weight and length Were measured for anthropometric evaluation. Fe status Was assessed Using fasting venous blood samples; Hb, serum ferritin and soluble tranferrin receptor concentrations were measured. Setting: The towns of Assis Brasil and Acrelandia in the state of Acre, north-west Brazil. Subjects: A total of sixty-nine randomly selected 0-24-month-old children. Results: Of these children, 40.3 % were anaemic, 63.1% were Fe-deficient, 28.1% had Fe-deficiency anaemia and 11.6% were stunted. Breast-feeding was initiated by 97.1% of mother followed by early feeding with complementary foods. The dietary pattern reflected a high intake of carbohydrate-rich foods and cow`s milk, with irregular intakes Of fruit, Vegetables and meat. All infants and 92.3% of toddlers were at risk Of inadequate Fe intakes. Fe from animal foods contributed Oil average 0.5% and 14.3% to total dietary Fe intake among infants and toddlers, respectively. Conclusions: Poor nutritional status and inadequate feeding practices in this study population reinforce the importance of exclusive breast-feeding during the first 6 months of life. Greater emphasis is required to improve the bioavailability of dietary Fe during complementary feeding practices.

Can the Deforestation Breeze Change the Rainfall in Amazonia? A Case Study for the BR-163 Highway Region

The authors simulated the effects of Amazonian mesoscale deforestation in the boundary layer and in rainfall with the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) model. They found that both the area and shape (with respect to wind incidence) of deforestation and the soil moisture status contributed to the state of the atmosphere during the time scale of several weeks, with distinguishable patterns of temperature, humidity, and rainfall. Deforestation resulted in the development of a three-dimensional thermal cell, the so-called deforestation breeze, slightly shifted downwind to large-scale circulation. The boundary layer was warmer and drier above 1000-m height and was slightly wetter up to 2000-m height. Soil wetness affected the circulation energetics proportionally to the soil dryness (for soil wetness below similar to 0.6). The shape of the deforestation controlled the impact on rainfall. The horizontal strips lined up with the prevailing wind showed a dominant increase in rainfall, significant up to about 60 000 km(2). On the other hand, in the patches aligned in the opposite direction (north-south), there was both increase and decrease in precipitation in two distinct regions, as a result of clearly separated upward and downward branches, which caused the precipitation to increase for patches up to 15 000 km(2). The authors` estimates for the size of deforestation impacting the rainfall contributed to fill up the low spatial resolution in other previous studies.

Impact of biomass burning aerosol on the monsoon circulation transition over Amazonia

Ensemble simulations of a regional climate model (RegCM3) forced by aerosol radiative forcing suggest that biomass burning aerosols can work against the seasonal monsoon circulation transition, thus re-enforce the dry season rainfall pattern for Southern Amazonia. Strongly absorbing smoke aerosols warm and stabilize the lower troposphere within the smoke center in southern Amazonia (where aerosol optical depth >0.3). These changes increase the surface pressure in the smoke center, weaken the southward surface pressure gradient between northern and southern Amazonia, and consequently induce an anomalous moisture divergence in the smoke center and an anomalous convergence in northwestern Amazonia (5 degrees S-5 degrees N, 60 degrees W-70 degrees W). The increased atmospheric thermodynamic stability, surface pressure, and divergent flow in Southern Amazonia may inhibit synoptic cyclonic activities propagated from extratropical South America, and re-enforce winter-like synoptic cyclonic activities and rainfall in southeastern Brazil, Paraguay and northeastern Argentina. Citation: Zhang, Y., R. Fu, H. Yu, Y. Qian, R. Dickinson, M. A. F. Silva Dias, P. L. da Silva Dias, and K. Fernandes (2009), Impact of biomass burning aerosol on the monsoon circulation transition over Amazonia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L10814, doi: 10.1029/2009GL037180.

A new micro-whip scorpion species from Brazilian Amazonia (Arachnida, Schizomida, Hubbardiidae), with the description of a new synapomorphy for Uropygi

Surazomus uarini n. sp. is described and illustrated based on specimens collected by beating on understory vegetation of Amazonian ""terra firme"" upland rain forests. A new cuticular structure, possibly a gland opening, is described on the female tarsus I and terminal flagellum. A putatively homologous structure is reported from the same body parts in all Undescribed species of Rowlandius Reddell and Cokendolpher 1995; Stenochrus portoricensis Chamberlin 1922; Mastigoproctus maximus (Tarnani 1889), and Thelyphonellus amazonicus (Butler 1872); suggesting it new synapomorphy for the clade Uropygi (i.e., Schizomida + Thelyphonida).

Out of Amazonia again and again: episodic crossing of the Andes promotes diversification in a lowland forest flycatcher

Most Neotropical lowland forest taxa occur exclusively on one side of the Andes despite the availability of appropriate habitat on both sides. Almost all molecular phylogenies and phylogenetic analyses of species assemblages (i.e. area cladograms) have supported the hypothesis that Andean uplift during the Late Pliocene created a vicariant barrier affecting lowland lineages in the region. However, a few widespread plant and animal species occurring in lowland forests on both sides of the Andes challenge the generality of this hypothesis. To understand the role of the Andes in the history of such organisms, we reconstructed the phylogeographic history of a widespread Neotropical flycatcher (Mionectes oleagineus) in the context of the other four species in the genus. A molecular phylogeny based on nuclear and mitochondrial sequences unambiguously showed an early basal split between montane and lowland Mionectes. The phylogeographic reconstruction of lowland taxa revealed a complex history, with multiple cases in which geographically proximate populations do not represent sister lineages. Specifically, three populations of M. oleagineus west of the Andes do not comprise a monophyletic clade; instead, each represents an independent lineage with origins east of the Andes. Divergence time estimates suggest that at least two cross-Andean dispersal events post-date Andean uplift.

Epidemiology and control of frontier malaria in Brazil: lessons from community-based studies in rural Amazonia

We describe the epidemiology of malaria in a frontier agricultural settlement in Brazilian Amazonia. We analysed the incidence of slide-confirmed symptomatic infections diagnosed between 2001 and 2006 in a cohort of 531 individuals (2281.53 person-years of follow-up) and parasite prevalence data derived from four cross-sectional surveys. Overall, the incidence rates of Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparaum were 20.6/100 and 6.8/100 person-years at risk, respectively, with a marked decline in the incidence of both species (81.4 and 56.8%, respectively) observed between 2001 and 2006. PCR revealed 5.4-fold more infections than conventional microscopy in population-wide cross-sectional surveys carried out between 2004 and 2006 (average prevalence, 11.3 vs. 2.0%). Only 27.2% of PCR-positive (but 73.3% of slide-positive) individuals had symptoms when enrolled, indicating that asymptomatic carriage of low-grade parasitaemias is a common phenomenon in frontier settlements. A circular cluster comprising 22.3% of the households, all situated in the area of most recent occupation, comprised 69.1% of all malaria infections diagnosed during the follow-up, with malaria incidence decreasing exponentially with distance from the cluster centre. By targeting one-quarter of the households, with selective indoor spraying or other house-protection measures, malaria incidence could be reduced by more than two-thirds in this community. (C) 2010 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recurrent Parasitemias and Population Dynamics of Plasmodium vivax Polymorphisms in Rural Amazonia

Clinical trials documented alarming post-treatment Plasmodium vivax recurrence rates caused by recrudescence of surviving asexual blood stages, relapse from hypnozoites, or new infections. Here we describe high rates of P vivax recurrence (26-40% 180 days after treatment) in two cohorts of rural Amazonians exposed to low levels of malaria transmission after a vivax malaria episode treated with chloroquine-primaquine. Microsatellite analysis of 28 paired acute infection and recurrence parasites showed only two pairs of identical haplotypes (consistent with recrudescences or reactivation of homologous hypnozoites) and four pairs of related haplotypes (sharing alleles at 11-13 of 14 microsatellites analyzed). Local isolates of P vivax were extraordinarily diverse and rarely shared the same haplotype, indicating that frequent recurrences did not favor the persistence or reappearance of clonal lineages of parasites in the Population. This fast haplotype replacement rate may represent the typical population dynamics Of neutral polymorphisms in parasites from low-endemicity areas.

Population dynamics of genetically diverse Plasmodium falciparum lineages: community-based prospective study in rural Amazonia

Temporal changes in the prevalence of antigenic variants in Plasmodium falciparum populations have been interpreted as evidence of immune-mediated frequency-dependent selection, but evolutively neutral processes may generate similar patterns of serotype replacement. Over 4 years, we investigated the population dynamics of P. falciparum polymorphisms the community level by using 11 putatively neutral microsatellite markers. Plasmodium falciparum Populations were less diverse than sympatric P. vivax isolates, with less multiple-clone infections, lower number of alleles per locus and lower Virtual heterozygosity, but both species showed significant multilocus linkage disequilibrium. Evolutively neutral P. falciparum polymorphisms showed a high turnover rate, with few lineages persisting for several months in the population. Similar results had previously been obtained, in the same community, for sympatric P. vivax isolates. In contrast, the prevalence of the 2 dimorphic types of a major antigen, MSP-2, remained remarkably stable throughout the Study period. We Suggest that the relatively fast turnover of parasite lineages represents the typical population dynamics of neutral polymorphisms in small populations, with clear implications for the detection of frequency-dependent selection of polymorphisms.