Continental passive microwave-based rainfall estimation algorithm: Application to the Amazon Basin

This paper presents a new statistical algorithm to estimate rainfall over the Amazon Basin region using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). The algorithm relies on empirical relationships derived for different raining-type systems between coincident measurements of surface rainfall rate and 85-GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature as observed by the precipitation radar (PR) and TMI on board the TRMM satellite. The scheme includes rain/no-rain area delineation (screening) and system-type classification routines for rain retrieval. The algorithm is validated against independent measurements of the TRMM-PR and S-band dual-polarization Doppler radar (S-Pol) surface rainfall data for two different periods. Moreover, the performance of this rainfall estimation technique is evaluated against well-known methods, namely, the TRMM-2A12 [ the Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF)], the Goddard scattering algorithm (GSCAT), and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) algorithms. The proposed algorithm shows a normalized bias of approximately 23% for both PR and S-Pol ground truth datasets and a mean error of 0.244 mm h(-1) ( PR) and -0.157 mm h(-1)(S-Pol). For rain volume estimates using PR as reference, a correlation coefficient of 0.939 and a normalized bias of 0.039 were found. With respect to rainfall distributions and rain area comparisons, the results showed that the formulation proposed is efficient and compatible with the physics and dynamics of the observed systems over the area of interest. The performance of the other algorithms showed that GSCAT presented low normalized bias for rain areas and rain volume [0.346 ( PR) and 0.361 (S-Pol)], and GPROF showed rainfall distribution similar to that of the PR and S-Pol but with a bimodal distribution. Last, the five algorithms were evaluated during the TRMM-Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) 1999 field campaign to verify the precipitation characteristics observed during the easterly and westerly Amazon wind flow regimes. The proposed algorithm presented a cumulative rainfall distribution similar to the observations during the easterly regime, but it underestimated for the westerly period for rainfall rates above 5 mm h(-1). NESDIS(1) overestimated for both wind regimes but presented the best westerly representation. NESDIS(2), GSCAT, and GPROF underestimated in both regimes, but GPROF was closer to the observations during the easterly flow.

Anti-Anopheles darlingi saliva antibodies as marker of Plasmodium vivax infection and clinical immunity in the Brazilian Amazon

Background: Despite governmental and private efforts on providing malaria control, this disease continues to be a major health threat. Thus, innovative strategies are needed to reduce disease burden. The malaria vectors, through the injection of saliva into the host skin, play important role on disease transmission and may influence malaria morbidity. This study describes the humoral immune response against Anopheles (An.) darlingi saliva in volunteers from the Brazilian Amazon and addresses the association between levels of specific antibodies and clinical presentation of Plasmodium (P.) vivax infection. Methods: Adult volunteers from communities in the Rondonia State, Brazil, were screened in order to assess the presence of P. vivax infection by light microscopy and nested PCR. Non-infected volunteers and individuals with symptomatic or symptomless infection were randomly selected and plasma collected. An. darlingi salivary gland sonicates (SGS) were prepared and used to measure anti-saliva antibody levels. Plasma interleukin (IL)-10 and interferon (IFN)-gamma levels were also estimated and correlated to anti-SGS levels. Results: Individuals infected with P. vivax presented higher levels of anti-SGS than non-infected individuals and antibody levels could discriminate infection. Furthermore, anti-saliva antibody measurement was also useful to distinguish asymptomatic infection from non-infection, with a high likelihood ratio. Interestingly, individuals with asymptomatic parasitaemia presented higher titers of anti-SGS and lower IFN-gamma/IL-10 ratio than symptomatic ones. In P. vivax-infected asymptomatic individuals, the IFN-gamma/IL-10 ratio was inversely correlated to anti-SGS titers, although not for while in symptomatic volunteers. Conclusion: The estimation of anti-An. darlingi antibody levels can indicate the probable P. vivax infection status and also could serve as a marker of disease severity in this region of Brazilian Amazon.

Hepatitis B Infection Is Associated with Asymptomatic Malaria in the Brazilian Amazon

Background: Areas that are endemic for malaria are also highly endemic for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Nevertheless, it is unknown whether HBV infection modifies the clinical presentation of malaria. This study aimed to address this question. Methodology and Findings: An observational study of 636 individuals was performed in Rondonia, western Amazon, Brazil between 2006 and 2007. Active and passive case detections identified Plasmodium infection by field microscopy and nested Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). HBV infections were identified by serology and confirmed by real-time PCR. Epidemiological information and plasma cytokine profiles were studied. The data were analyzed using adjusted multinomial logistic regression. Plasmodium-infected individuals with active HBV infection were more likely to be asymptomatic (OR: 120.13, P < 0.0001), present with lower levels of parasitemia and demonstrate a decreased inflammatory cytokine profile. Nevertheless, co-infected individuals presented higher HBV viremia. Plasmodium parasitemia inversely correlated with plasma HBV DNA levels (r=-0.6; P=0.0003). Conclusion: HBV infection diminishes the intensity of malaria infection in individuals from this endemic area. This effect seems related to cytokine balance and control of inflammatory responses. These findings add important insights to the understanding of the factors affecting the clinical outcomes of malaria in endemic regions.

Massive infestation by Perulernaea gamitanae (Crustacea: Cyclopoida: Lernaidae) in juvenile gamitana, cultured in the Peruvian Amazon

The gamitana is a species of socio-economic importance in the Peruvian Amazon, often intensively produced locally for human consumption. Because of this, more studies concerning parasite populations affecting this species culture are necessary. In this study, a heavy copepod infestation of Perulernaea gamitanae is reported in a managed culture of gamitana. The prevalence of infection was 100% and mortality of the fish population was complete. The average intensity and abundance of the parasite was 268.8 parasites per individual.

Emission and dry deposition of accumulation mode particles in the Amazon Basin

Size-resolved vertical aerosol number fluxes of particles in the diameter range 0.25-2.5 mu m were measured with the eddy covariance method from a 53 m high tower over the Amazon rain forest, 60 km NNW of Manaus, Brazil. This study focuses on data measured during the relatively clean wet season, but a shorter measurement period from the more polluted dry season is used as a comparison. Size-resolved net particle fluxes of the five lowest size bins, representing 0.25-0.45 mu m in diameter, were in general dominated by deposition in more or less all wind sectors in the wet season. This is an indication that the source of primary biogenic aerosol particles may be small in this particle size range. Transfer velocities within this particle size range were observed to increase linearly with increasing friction velocity and increasing particle diameter. In the diameter range 0.5-2.5 mu m, vertical particle fluxes were highly dependent on wind direction. In wind sectors where anthropogenic influence was low, net upward fluxes were observed. However, in wind sectors associated with higher anthropogenic influence, deposition fluxes dominated. The net upward fluxes were interpreted as a result of primary biogenic aerosol emission, but deposition of anthropogenic particles seems to have masked this emission in wind sectors with higher anthropogenic influence. The net emission fluxes were at maximum in the afternoon when the mixed layer is well developed, and were best correlated with horizontal wind speed according to the equation log(10)F = 0.48.U + 2.21 where F is the net emission number flux of 0.5-2.5 mu m particles [m(-2) s(-1)] and U is the horizontal wind speed [ms(-1)] at the top of the tower.

A comparison of dry and wet season aerosol number fluxes over the Amazon rain forest

Vertical number fluxes of aerosol particles and vertical fluxes of CO(2) were measured with the eddy covariance method at the top of a 53 m high tower in the Amazon rain forest as part of the LBA (The Large Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia) experiment. The observed aerosol number fluxes included particles with sizes down to 10 nm in diameter. The measurements were carried out during the wet and dry season in 2008. In this study focus is on the dry season aerosol fluxes, with significant influence from biomass burning, and these are compared with aerosol fluxes measured during the wet season. Net particle deposition fluxes dominated in daytime in both seasons and the deposition flux was considerably larger in the dry season due to the much higher dry season particle concentration. The particle transfer velocity increased linearly with increasing friction velocity in both seasons. The difference in transfer velocity between the two seasons was small, indicating that the seasonal change in aerosol number size distribution is not enough for causing any significant change in deposition velocity. In general, particle transfer velocities in this study are low compared to studies over boreal forests. The reasons are probably the high percentage of accumulation mode particles and the low percentage of nucleation mode particles in the Amazon boundary layer, both in the dry and wet season, and low wind speeds in the tropics compared to the midlatitudes. In the dry season, nocturnal particle fluxes behaved very similar to the nocturnal CO(2) fluxes. Throughout the night, the measured particle flux at the top of the tower was close to zero, but early in the morning there was an upward particle flux peak that is not likely a result of entrainment or local pollution. It is possible that these morning upward particle fluxes are associated with emission of primary biogenic particles from the rain forest. Emitted particles may be stored within the canopy during stable conditions at nighttime, similarly to CO(2), and being released from the canopy when conditions become more turbulent in the morning.

Transport of North African dust from the Bod,l, depression to the Amazon Basin: a case study

Through long-range transport of dust, the North-African desert supplies essential minerals to the Amazon rain forest. Since North African dust reaches South America mostly during the Northern Hemisphere winter, the dust sources active during winter are the main contributors to the forest. Given that the Bod,l, depression area in southwestern Chad is the main winter dust source, a close link is expected between the Bod,l, emission patterns and volumes and the mineral supply flux to the Amazon. Until now, the particular link between the Bod,l, and the Amazon forest was based on sparse satellite measurements and modeling studies. In this study, we combine a detailed analysis of space-borne and ground data with reanalysis model data and surface measurements taken in the central Amazon during the Amazonian Aerosol Characterization Experiment (AMAZE-08) in order to explore the validity and the nature of the proposed link between the Bod,l, depression and the Amazon forest. This case study follows the dust events of 11-16 and 18-27 February 2008, from the emission in the Bod,l, over West Africa (most likely with contribution from other dust sources in the region) the crossing of the Atlantic Ocean, to the observed effects above the Amazon canopy about 10 days after the emission. The dust was lifted by surface winds stronger than 14 m s(-1), usually starting early in the morning. The lofted dust, mixed with biomass burning aerosols over Nigeria, was transported over the Atlantic Ocean, and arrived over the South American continent. The top of the aerosol layer reached above 3 km, and the bottom merged with the boundary layer. The arrival of the dusty air parcel over the Amazon forest increased the average concentration of aerosol crustal elements by an order of magnitude.

Impact of Manaus City on the Amazon Green Ocean atmosphere: ozone production, precursor sensitivity and aerosol load

As a contribution to the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia - Cooperative LBA Airborne Regional Experiment (LBA-CLAIRE-2001) field campaign in the heart of the Amazon Basin, we analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamics of the urban plume of Manaus City during the wet-to-dry season transition period in July 2001. During the flights, we performed vertical stacks of crosswind transects in the urban outflow downwind of Manaus City, measuring a comprehensive set of trace constituents including O(3), NO, NO(2), CO, VOC, CO(2), and H(2)O. Aerosol loads were characterized by concentrations of total aerosol number (CN) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and by light scattering properties. Measurements over pristine rainforest areas during the campaign showed low levels of pollution from biomass burning or industrial emissions, representative of wet season background conditions. The urban plume of Manaus City was found to be joined by plumes from power plants south of the city, all showing evidence of very strong photochemical ozone formation. One episode is discussed in detail, where a threefold increase in ozone mixing ratios within the atmospheric boundary layer occurred within a 100 km travel distance downwind of Manaus. Observation-based estimates of the ozone production rates in the plume reached 15 ppb h(-1). Within the plume core, aerosol concentrations were strongly enhanced, with Delta CN/Delta CO ratios about one order of magnitude higher than observed in Amazon biomass burning plumes. Delta CN/Delta CO ratios tended to decrease with increasing transport time, indicative of a significant reduction in particle number by coagulation, and without substantial new particle nucleation occurring within the time/space observed. While in the background atmosphere a large fraction of the total particle number served as CCN (about 60-80% at 0.6% supersaturation), the CCN/CN ratios within the plume indicated that only a small fraction (16 +/- 12 %) of the plume particles were CCN. The fresh plume aerosols showed relatively weak light scattering efficiency. The CO-normalized CCN concentrations and light scattering coefficients increased with plume age in most cases, suggesting particle growth by condensation of soluble organic or inorganic species. We used a Single Column Chemistry and Transport Model (SCM) to infer the urban pollution emission fluxes of Manaus City, implying observed mixing ratios of CO, NO(x) and VOC. The model can reproduce the temporal/spatial distribution of ozone enhancements in the Manaus plume, both with and without accounting for the distinct (high NO(x)) contribution by the power plants; this way examining the sensitivity of ozone production to changes in the emission rates of NO(x). The VOC reactivity in the Manaus region was dominated by a high burden of biogenic isoprene from the background rainforest atmosphere, and therefore NO(x) control is assumed to be the most effective ozone abatement strategy. Both observations and models show that the agglomeration of NO(x) emission sources, like power plants, in a well-arranged area can decrease the ozone production efficiency in the near field of the urban populated cores. But on the other hand remote areas downwind of the city then bear the brunt, being exposed to increased ozone production and N-deposition. The simulated maximum stomatal ozone uptake fluxes were 4 nmol m(-2) s(-1) close to Manaus, and decreased only to about 2 nmol m(-2) s(-1) within a travel distance >1500 km downwind from Manaus, clearly exceeding the critical threshold level for broadleaf trees. Likewise, the simulated N deposition close to Manaus was similar to 70 kg N ha(-1) a(-1) decreasing only to about 30 kg N ha(-1) a(-1) after three days of simulation.

Aerosol number fluxes over the Amazon rain forest during the wet season

Number fluxes of particles with diameter larger than 10 nm were measured with the eddy covariance method over the Amazon rain forest during the wet season as part of the LBA (The Large Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia) campaign 2008. The primary goal was to investigate whether sources or sinks dominate the aerosol number flux in the tropical rain forest-atmosphere system. During the measurement campaign, from 12 March to 18 May, 60% of the particle fluxes pointed downward, which is a similar fraction to what has been observed over boreal forests. The net deposition flux prevailed even in the absolute cleanest atmospheric conditions during the campaign and therefore cannot be explained only by deposition of anthropogenic particles. The particle transfer velocity v(t) increased with increasing friction velocity and the relation is described by the equation v(t) = 2.4x10(-3)xu(*) where u(*) is the friction velocity. Upward particle fluxes often appeared in the morning hours and seem to a large extent to be an effect of entrainment fluxes into a growing mixed layer rather than primary aerosol emission. In general, the number source of primary aerosol particles within the footprint area of the measurements was small, possibly because the measured particle number fluxes reflect mostly particles less than approximately 200 nm. This is an indication that the contribution of primary biogenic aerosol particles to the aerosol population in the Amazon boundary layer may be low in terms of number concentrations. However, the possibility of horizontal variations in primary aerosol emission over the Amazon rain forest cannot be ruled out.

Spectral dependence of aerosol light absorption over the Amazon Basin

In this study, we examine the spectral dependence of aerosol absorption at different sites and seasons in the Amazon Basin. The analysis is based on measurements performed during three intensive field experiments at a pasture site (Fazenda Nossa Senhora, Rondonia) and at a primary forest site (Cuieiras Reserve, Amazonas), from 1999 to 2004. Aerosol absorption spectra were measured using two Aethalometers: a 7-wavelength Aethalometer (AE30) that covers the visible (VIS) to near-infrared (NIR) spectral range, and a 2-wavelength Aethalometer (AE20) that measures absorption in the UV and in the NIR. As a consequence of biomass burning emissions, about 10 times greater absorption values were observed in the dry season in comparison to the wet season. Power law expressions were fitted to the measurements in order to derive the absorption Angstrom exponent, defined as the negative slope of absorption versus wavelength in a log-log plot. At the pasture site, about 70% of the absorption Angstrom exponents fell between 1.5 and 2.5 during the dry season, indicating that biomass burning aerosols have a stronger spectral dependence than soot carbon particles. Angstrom exponents decreased from the dry to the wet season, in agreement with the shift from biomass burning aerosols, predominant in the fine mode, to biogenic and dust aerosols, predominant in the coarse mode. The lowest absorption Angstrom exponents (90% of data below 1.5) were observed at the forest site during the dry season. Also, results indicate that low absorption coefficients were associated with low Angstrom exponents. This finding suggests that biogenic aerosols from Amazonia have a weaker spectral dependence for absorption than biomass burning aerosols, contradicting our expectations of biogenic particles behaving as brown carbon. In a first order assessment, results indicate a small (<1 %) effect of variations in absorption Angstrom exponents on 24-h aerosol forcings, at least in the spectral range of 450-880 nm. Further studies should be taken to assess the corresponding impact in the UV spectral range. The assumption that soot spectral properties represent all ambient light absorbing particles may cause a misjudgment of absorption towards the UV, especially in remote areas. Therefore, it is recommended to measure aerosol absorption at several wavelengths to accurately assess the impact of non-soot aerosols on climate and on photochemical atmospheric processes.

Evaluation of the carbon content of aerosols from the burning of biomass in the Brazilian Amazon using thermal, optical and thermal-optical analysis methods

Aerosol samples were collected at a pasture site in the Amazon Basin as part of the project LBA-SMOCC-2002 (Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia - Smoke Aerosols, Clouds, Rainfall and Climate: Aerosols from Biomass Burning Perturb Global and Regional Climate). Sampling was conducted during the late dry season, when the aerosol composition was dominated by biomass burning emissions, especially in the submicron fraction. A 13-stage Dekati low-pressure impactor (DLPI) was used to collect particles with nominal aerodynamic diameters (D(p)) ranging from 0.03 to 0.10 mu m. Gravimetric analyses of the DLPI substrates and filters were performed to obtain aerosol mass concentrations. The concentrations of total, apparent elemental, and organic carbon (TC, EC(a), and OC) were determined using thermal and thermal-optical analysis (TOA) methods. A light transmission method (LTM) was used to determine the concentration of equivalent black carbon (BC(e)) or the absorbing fraction at 880 nm for the size-resolved samples. During the dry period, due to the pervasive presence of fires in the region upwind of the sampling site, concentrations of fine aerosols (D(p) < 2.5 mu m: average 59.8 mu g m(-3)) were higher than coarse aerosols (D(p) > 2.5 mu m: 4.1 mu g m(-3)). Carbonaceous matter, estimated as the sum of the particulate organic matter (i.e., OC x 1.8) plus BC(e), comprised more than 90% to the total aerosol mass. Concentrations of EC(a) (estimated by thermal analysis with a correction for charring) and BC(e) (estimated by LTM) averaged 5.2 +/- 1.3 and 3.1 +/- 0.8 mu g m(-3), respectively. The determination of EC was improved by extracting water-soluble organic material from the samples, which reduced the average light absorption Angstrom exponent of particles in the size range of 0.1 to 1.0 mu m from >2.0 to approximately 1.2. The size-resolved BC(e) measured by the LTM showed a clear maximum between 0.4 and 0.6 mu m in diameter. The concentrations of OC and BC(e) varied diurnally during the dry period, and this variation is related to diurnal changes in boundary layer thickness and in fire frequency.

Sources of carbonaceous aerosol in the Amazon basin

The quantification of sources of carbonaceous aerosol is important to understand their atmospheric concentrations and regulating processes and to study possible effects on climate and air quality, in addition to develop mitigation strategies. In the framework of the European Integrated Project on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions (EUCAARI) fine (D(p) < 2.5 mu m) and coarse (2.5 mu m < Dp < 10 mu m) aerosol particles were sampled from February to June (wet season) and from August to September (dry season) 2008 in the central Amazon basin. The mass of fine particles averaged 2.4 mu g m(-3) during the wet season and 4.2 mu g m(-3) during the dry season. The average coarse aerosol mass concentration during wet and dry periods was 7.9 and 7.6 mu g m(-3), respectively. The overall chemical composition of fine and coarse mass did not show any seasonality with the largest fraction of fine and coarse aerosol mass explained by organic carbon (OC); the average OC to mass ratio was 0.4 and 0.6 in fine and coarse aerosol modes, respectively. The mass absorbing cross section of soot was determined by comparison of elemental carbon and light absorption coefficient measurements and it was equal to 4.7 m(2) g(-1) at 637 nm. Carbon aerosol sources were identified by Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) analysis of thermograms: 44% of fine total carbon mass was assigned to biomass burning, 43% to secondary organic aerosol (SOA), and 13% to volatile species that are difficult to apportion. In the coarse mode, primary biogenic aerosol particles (PBAP) dominated the carbonaceous aerosol mass. The results confirmed the importance of PBAP in forested areas. The source apportionment results were employed to evaluate the ability of global chemistry transport models to simulate carbonaceous aerosol sources in a regional tropical background site. The comparison showed an overestimation of elemental carbon (EC) by the TM5 model during the dry season and OC both during the dry and wet periods. The overestimation was likely due to the overestimation of biomass burning emission inventories and SOA production over tropical areas.

On molecular chirality within naturally occurring secondary organic aerosol particles from the central Amazon Basin

In this perspectives article, we reflect upon the existence of chirality in atmospheric aerosol particles. We then show that organic particles collected at a field site in the central Amazon Basin under pristine background conditions during the wet and dry seasons consist of chiral secondary organic material. We show how the chiral response from the aerosol particles can be imaged directly without the need for sample dissolution, solvent extraction, or sample preconcentration. By comparing the chiral-response images with optical images, we show that chiral responses always originate from particles on the filter, but not all aerosol particles produce chiral signals. The intensity of the chiral signal produced by the size resolved particles strongly indicates the presence of chiral secondary organic material in the particle. Finally, we discuss the implications of our findings on chiral atmospheric aerosol particles in terms of climate-related properties and source apportionment.

Historical carbon emissions and uptake from the agricultural frontier of the Brazilian Amazon

Tropical ecosystems play a large and complex role in the global carbon cycle. Clearing of natural ecosystems for agriculture leads to large pulses of CO(2) to the atmosphere from terrestrial biomass. Concurrently, the remaining intact ecosystems, especially tropical forests, may be sequestering a large amount of carbon from the atmosphere in response to global environmental changes including climate changes and an increase in atmospheric CO(2). Here we use an approach that integrates census-based historical land use reconstructions, remote-sensing-based contemporary land use change analyses, and simulation modeling of terrestrial biogeochemistry to estimate the net carbon balance over the period 1901-2006 for the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, which is one of the most rapidly changing agricultural frontiers in the world. By the end of this period, we estimate that of the state`s 925 225 km(2), 221 092 km(2) have been converted to pastures and 89 533 km(2) have been converted to croplands, with forest-to-pasture conversions being the dominant land use trajectory but with recent transitions to croplands increasing rapidly in the last decade. These conversions have led to a cumulative release of 4.8 Pg C to the atmosphere, with similar to 80% from forest clearing and 20% from the clearing of cerrado. Over the same period, we estimate that the residual undisturbed ecosystems accumulated 0.3 Pg C in response to CO2 fertilization. Therefore, the net emissions of carbon from Mato Grosso over this period were 4.5 Pg C. Net carbon emissions from Mato Grosso since 2000 averaged 146 Tg C/yr, on the order of Brazil`s fossil fuel emissions during this period. These emissions were associated with the expansion of croplands to grow soybeans. While alternative management regimes in croplands, including tillage, fertilization, and cropping patterns promote carbon storage in ecosystems, they remain a small portion of the net carbon balance for the region. This detailed accounting of a region`s carbon balance is the type of foundation analysis needed by the new United Nations Collaborative Programmme for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).

Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon

The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006-2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO(2)-equivalents (CO(2)-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24-49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2-0.4 Pg CO(2)-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso.