Parentage analysis with genetic markers in natural populations. I. The expected proportion of offspring with unambiguous paternity.

Recent studies indicate that polymorphic genetic markers are potentially helpful in resolving genealogical relationships among individuals in a natural population. Genetic data provide opportunities for paternity exclusion when genotypic incompatibilities are observed among individuals, and the present investigation examines the resolving power of genetic markers in unambiguous positive determination of paternity. Under the assumption that the mother for each offspring in a population is unambiguously known, an analytical expression for the fraction of males excluded from paternity is derived for the case where males and females may be derived from two different gene pools. This theoretical formulation can also be used to predict the fraction of births for each of which all but one male can be excluded from paternity. We show that even when the average probability of exclusion approaches unity, a substantial fraction of births yield equivocal mother-father-offspring determinations. The number of loci needed to increase the frequency of unambiguous determinations to a high level is beyond the scope of current electrophoretic studies in most species. Applications of this theory to electrophoretic data on Chamaelirium luteum (L.) shows that in 2255 offspring derived from 273 males and 70 females, only 57 triplets could be unequivocally determined with eight polymorphic protein loci, even though the average combined exclusionary power of these loci was 73%. The distribution of potentially compatible male parents, based on multilocus genotypes, was reasonably well predicted from the allele frequency data available for these loci. We demonstrate that genetic paternity analysis in natural populations cannot be reliably based on exclusionary principles alone. In order to measure the reproductive contributions of individuals in natural populations, more elaborate likelihood principles must be deployed.

Genetic diversity and population structure of Tasmanian devils, the largest marsupial carnivore

Genetic diversity and population structure were investigated across the core range of Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus laniarius; Dasyuridae), a wide-ranging marsupial carnivore restricted to the island of Tasmania. Heterozygosity (0.386-0.467) and allelic diversity (2.7-3.3) were low in all subpopulations and allelic size ranges were small and almost continuous, consistent with a founder effect. Island effects and repeated periods of low population density may also have contributed to the low variation. Within continuous habitat, gene flow appears extensive up to 50 km (high assignment rates to source or close neighbour populations; nonsignificant values of pairwise F-ST), in agreement with movement data. At larger scales (150-250 km), gene flow is reduced (significant pairwise F-ST) but there is no evidence for isolation by distance. The most substantial genetic structuring was observed for comparisons spanning unsuitable habitat, implying limited dispersal of devils between the well-connected, eastern populations and a smaller northwestern population. The genetic distinctiveness of the northwestern population was reflected in all analyses: unique alleles; multivariate analyses of gene frequency (multidimensional scaling, minimum spanning tree, nearest neighbour); high self-assignment (95%); two distinct populations for Tasmania were detected in isolation by distance and in Bayesian model-based clustering analyses. Marsupial carnivores appear to have stronger population subdivisions than their placental counterparts.

Directional genetic differentiation and relative migration

Understanding the population structure and patterns of gene flow within species is of fundamental importance to the study of evolution. In the fields of population and evolutionary genetics, measures of genetic differentiation are commonly used to gather this information. One potential caveat is that these measures assume gene flow to be symmetric. However, asymmetric gene flow is common in nature, especially in systems driven by physical processes such as wind or water currents. As information about levels of asymmetric gene flow among populations is essential for the correct interpretation of the distribution of contemporary genetic diversity within species, this should not be overlooked. To obtain information on asymmetric migration patterns from genetic data, complex models based on maximum-likelihood or Bayesian approaches generally need to be employed, often at great computational cost. Here, a new simpler and more efficient approach for understanding gene flow patterns is presented. This approach allows the estimation of directional components of genetic divergence between pairs of populations at low computational effort, using any of the classical or modern measures of genetic differentiation. These directional measures of genetic differentiation can further be used to calculate directional relative migration and to detect asymmetries in gene flow patterns. This can be done in a user-friendly web application called divMigrate-online introduced in this study. Using simulated data sets with known gene flow regimes, we demonstrate that the method is capable of resolving complex migration patterns under a range of study designs.

Angler Perception and Population Dynamics of the Northern Snakehead (Channa argus) in the Potomac River & Tributaries

Our research sought to address the extent to which the northern snakehead (Channa argus), an invasive fish species, represents a threat to the Potomac River ecosystem. The first goal of our research was to survey the perceptions and opinions of recreational anglers on the effects of the snakehead population in the Potomac River ecosystem. To determine angler perceptions, we created and administered 113 surveys from June – September 2014 at recreational boat ramps along the Potomac River. Our surveys were designed to expand information collected during previous surveys conducted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Our results indicated recreational anglers perceive that abundances and catch rates of target species, specifically largemouth bass, have declined since snakehead became established in the river. The second goal of our research was to determine the genetic diversity and potential of the snakehead population to expand in the Potomac River. We hypothesized that the effective genetic population size would be much less than the census size of the snakehead population in the Potomac River. We collected tissue samples (fin clippings) from 79 snakehead collected in a recreational tournament held between Fort Washington and Wilson’s Landing, MD on the Potomac River and from electrofishing sampling conducted by the Maryland Department of Natural Resources in Pomonkey Creek, a tributary of the Potomac River. DNA was extracted from the tissue samples and scored for 12 microsatellite markers, which had previously been identified for Potomac River snakehead. Microsatellite allele frequency data were recorded and analyzed in the software programs GenAlEx and NeEstimator to estimate heterozygosity and effective genetic population size. Resampling simulations indicated that the number of microsatellites and the number of fish analyzed provided sufficient precision. Simulations indicated that the effective population size estimate would expect to stabilize for samples > 70 individual snakehead. Based on a sample of 79 fish scored for 12 microsatellites, we calculated an Ne of 15.3 individuals. This is substantially smaller than both the sample size and estimated population size. We conclude that genetic diversity in the snakehead population in the Potomac River is low because the population has yet to recover from a genetic bottleneck associated with a founder effect due to their recent introduction into the system.

Mapping Bias Overestimates Reference Allele Frequencies at the HLA Genes in the 1000 Genomes Project Phase I Data.

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies have become the standard for data generation in studies of population genomics, as the 1000 Genomes Project (1000G). However, these techniques are known to be problematic when applied to highly polymorphic genomic regions, such as the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes. Because accurate genotype calls and allele frequency estimations are crucial to population genomics analyses, it is important to assess the reliability of NGS data. Here, we evaluate the reliability of genotype calls and allele frequency estimates of the single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) reported by 1000G (phase I) at five HLA genes (HLA-A, -B, -C, -DRB1, and -DQB1). We take advantage of the availability of HLA Sanger sequencing of 930 of the 1092 1000G samples and use this as a gold standard to benchmark the 1000G data. We document that 18.6% of SNP genotype calls in HLA genes are incorrect and that allele frequencies are estimated with an error greater than ±0.1 at approximately 25% of the SNPs in HLA genes. We found a bias toward overestimation of reference allele frequency for the 1000G data, indicating mapping bias is an important cause of error in frequency estimation in this dataset. We provide a list of sites that have poor allele frequency estimates and discuss the outcomes of including those sites in different kinds of analyses. Because the HLA region is the most polymorphic in the human genome, our results provide insights into the challenges of using of NGS data at other genomic regions of high diversity.

Genetic population data of 12 STR loci of the PowerPlex (R) Y system in the state of Sao Paulo population (Southeast of Brazil)

Allele frequency distributions and population data for 12 Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (STRs) included in the PowerPlex (R) Y Systems (Promega) were obtained for a sample of 200 healthy unrelated males living in S (a) over tildeo Paulo State (Southeast of Brazil). A total of 192 haplotypes were identified, of which 184 were unique and 8 were found in 2 individuals. The average gene diversity of the 12 Y-STR was 0.6746 and the haplotype diversity was 0.9996. Pairwise analysis confirmed that our population is more similar with the Italy, North Portugal and Spain, being more distant of the Japan. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Allele and genotype frequencies of polymorphic cytochromes P4502D6, 2C19 and 2E1 in Aborigines from Western Australia

The polymorphisms of the important xenobiotic metabolizing enzymes CYP2D6, CYP2C19 and CYP2E1 have been studied extensively in a large number of populations and show significant heterogeneity in the frequency of different alleles/genotypes and in the prevalence of the extensive and poor metabolizer phenotypes, Understanding of inter-ethnic differences in genotypes is important in prediction of either beneficial or adverse effects from therapeutic agents and other xenobiotics. Since no data were available for Australian Aborigines, we investigated the frequencies of alleles and genotypes for CYP2D6, CYP2C19 and CYP2E1 in a population living in the far north of Western Australia. Because of its geographical isolation, this population can serve as a model to study the impact of evolutionary forces on the distribution of different alleles for xenobiotic metabolizing enzymes. Twelve CYP2D6 alleles were analysed, The wild-type allele *1 was the most frequent (85.8%) and the non-functional alleles (*4, *5, *16) had an overall frequency of less than 10%. Only one subject (0.4%) was a poor metabolizer for CYP2D6 because of the genotype *5/*5, For CYP2C19, the frequencies of the *1 (wild-type) and the non-functional (*2 and *3) alleles were 50.2%, 35.5% and 14.3%, respectively. The combined CYP2C19 genotypes (*2/*2, *2/*3 or *3/*3) correspond to a predicted frequency of 25.6% for the CYP2C19 poor metabolizer phenotype, For CYP2E1, only one subject had the rare c2 allele giving an overall allele frequency of 0.2%. For CYP2D6 and CYP2C19, allele frequencies and predicted phenotypes differed significantly from those for Caucasians but were similar to those for Orientals indicating a close relationship to East Asian populations. Differences between Aborigines and Orientals in allele frequencies for CYP2D6*10 and CYP2E1 c2 may have arisen through natural selection, or genetic drift, respectively, Pharmacogenetics 11:69-76 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Frequency of 8 CFTR gene mutations in cystic fibrosis patients in Minas Gerais, Brazil, diagnosed by neonatal screening

The nature and frequency of cystic fibrosis mutations in Brazil is not uniform due to the highly varied ethnic composition of the population. The average frequency of the F508del mutation has been reported to be 48.6%. Other common mutations in Brazil are G542X, R1162X, and N1303K. The aim of this study was to analyze the frequency of 8 mutations (F508del, G542X, R1162X, N1303K, W1282X, G85E, 3120+1G>A, and 711+1G>T) in a sample of 111 newborn patients with cystic fibrosis diagnosed by the Cystic Fibrosis Neonatal Screening Program of Minas Gerais State. The mutations were tested by allele-specific oligonucleotide PCR with specially designed primers. An allele frequency of 48.2% was observed for the F508del mutation, and allele frequencies of 5.41, 4.50, 4.05, and 3.60% were found for the R1162X, G542X, 3120+1G>A, and G85E mutations, respectively. The genotypes obtained were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. These data demonstrate that the 8-mutation panel studied here has extensive coverage (68%) for the cystic fibrosis mutations in Minas Gerais. These data improve our knowledge of cystic fibrosis in Brazil, particularly in this region. In addition, this investigation contributed to the establishment of a sensitive and population-specific mutation panel, which can be helpful for molecular diagnosis of cystic fibrosis.

Testing the Markov property with ultra high frequency financial data

This paper develops a framework to test whether discrete-valued irregularly-spaced financial transactions data follow a subordinated Markov process. For that purpose, we consider a specific optional sampling in which a continuous-time Markov process is observed only when it crosses some discrete level. This framework is convenient for it accommodates not only the irregular spacing of transactions data, but also price discreteness. Further, it turns out that, under such an observation rule, the current price duration is independent of previous price durations given the current price realization. A simple nonparametric test then follows by examining whether this conditional independence property holds. Finally, we investigate whether or not bid-ask spreads follow Markov processes using transactions data from the New York Stock Exchange. The motivation lies on the fact that asymmetric information models of market microstructures predict that the Markov property does not hold for the bid-ask spread. The results are mixed in the sense that the Markov assumption is rejected for three out of the five stocks we have analyzed.

Forecasting daily volatility using high frequency financial data

Aiming at empirical findings, this work focuses on applying the HEAVY model for daily volatility with financial data from the Brazilian market. Quite similar to GARCH, this model seeks to harness high frequency data in order to achieve its objectives. Four variations of it were then implemented and their fit compared to GARCH equivalents, using metrics present in the literature. Results suggest that, in such a market, HEAVY does seem to specify daily volatility better, but not necessarily produces better predictions for it, what is, normally, the ultimate goal. The dataset used in this work consists of intraday trades of U.S. Dollar and Ibovespa future contracts from BM&FBovespa.

Genetic population data of 12 STR loci of the PowerPlex (R) Y system in the state of São Paulo population (Southeast of Brazil)

Allele frequency distributions and population data for 12 Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (STRs) included in the PowerPlex (R) Y Systems (Promega) were obtained for a sample of 200 healthy unrelated males living in S (a) over tildeo Paulo State (Southeast of Brazil). A total of 192 haplotypes were identified, of which 184 were unique and 8 were found in 2 individuals. The average gene diversity of the 12 Y-STR was 0.6746 and the haplotype diversity was 0.9996. Pairwise analysis confirmed that our population is more similar with the Italy, North Portugal and Spain, being more distant of the Japan. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic population data from Araraquara region (SP State, Brazil) using PowerPlex® 16 Systems

In the present study, allele frequency distributions for the 15 STR loci included in the PowerPlex® 16 Systems (Promega) were obtained from a sample of 55 unrelated individuals living in Araraquara region (SP, Brazil). The frequency of each allele for each locus tested, the exact test and the forensic and paternity parameters were calculated using POWERSTATS ver. 1.2 (Promega) and GENEPOP ver. 3.2 software. All loci are in the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and they reached a combined power discrimination of 0.999999999999999973 and combined power exclusion of 0.99999987, showing to be a powerful tool for paternity testing and individual identification in the population analyzed. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Allelic frequencies and statistical data obtained from 12 codis STR loci in an admixed population of the Brazilian Amazon

The allelic frequencies of 12 short tandem repeat loci were obtained from a sample of 307 unrelated individuals living in Macapá, a city in the northern Amazon region, Brazil. These loci are the most commonly used in forensics and paternity testing. Based on the allele frequency obtained for the population of Macapá, we estimated an interethnic admixture for the three parental groups (European, Native American and African) of, respectively, 46%, 35% and 19%. Comparing these allele frequencies with those of other Brazilian populations and of the Iberian Peninsula population, no significant distances were observed. The interpopulation genetic distances (F_ST coefficients) to the present database ranged from F_ST = 0.0016 between Macapá and Belém to F_ST = 0.0036 between Macapá and the Iberian Peninsula.

Alcohol dehydrogenase 1C*1 allele is a genetic marker for alcohol-associated cancer in heavy drinkers

Chronic alcohol consumption is associated with an increased risk for upper aerodigestive tract cancer and hepatocellular carcinoma. Increased acetaldehyde production via alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH) has been implicated in the pathogenesis. The allele ADH1C*1 of ADH1C encodes for an enzyme with a high capacity to generate acetaldehyde. So far, the association between the ADH1C*1 allele and alcohol-related cancers among heavy drinkers is controversial. ADH1C genotypes were determined by polymerase chain reaction and restriction fragment length polymorphism in a total of 818 patients with alcohol-associated esophageal (n=123), head and neck (n=84) and hepatocellular cancer (n=86) as well as in patients with alcoholic pancreatitis (n=117), alcoholic liver cirrhosis (n=217), combined liver cirrhosis and pancreatitis (n=17) and in alcoholics without gastrointestinal organ damage (n=174). The ADH1C*1 allele and genotype ADH1C*1/1 were significantly more frequent in patients with alcohol-related cancers than that in individuals with nonmalignant alcohol-related organ damage. Using multivariate analysis, ADH1C*1 allele frequency and rate of homozygosity were significantly associated with an increased risk for alcohol-related cancers (p<0.001 in all instances). The odds ratio for genotype ADH1C*1/1 regarding the development of esophageal, hepatocellular and head and neck cancer were 2.93 (CI, 1.84-4.67), 3.56 (CI, 1.33-9.53) and 2.2 (CI, 1.11-4.36), respectively. The data identify genotype ADH1C*1/1 as an independent risk factor for the development of alcohol-associated tumors among heavy drinkers, indicating a genetic predisposition of individuals carrying this genotype.

Social transmission of reproductive behavior increases frequency of inherited disorders in a young-expanding population

The observation of high frequencies of certain inherited disorders in the population of Saguenay–Lac Saint Jean can be explained in terms of the variance and the correlation of effective family size (EFS) from one generation to the next. We have shown this effect by using the branching process approach with real demographic data. When variance of EFS is included in the model, despite its profound effect on mutant allele frequency, any mutant introduced in the population never reaches the known carrier frequencies (between 0.035 and 0.05). It is only when the EFS correlation between generations is introduced into the model that we can explain the rise of the mutant alleles. This correlation is described by a c parameter that reflects the dependency of children’s EFS on their parents’ EFS. The c parameter can be considered to reflect social transmission of demographic behavior. We show that such social transmission dramatically reduces the effective population size. This could explain particular distributions in allele frequencies and unusually high frequency of certain inherited disorders in some human populations.