Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

Mean annual surface displacement of the Laurichard rock glacier, French Alps

The Laurichard active rock glacier is the permafrost-related landform with the longest record of monitoring in France, including an annual geodetic survey, repeated geoelectrical campaigns from 1979 onwards and continuous recording of ground temperature since 2003. These data were used to examine changes in creep rates and internal structure from 1986 to 2006. The control that climatic variables exert on rock glacier kinematics was investigated over three time scales. Between the 1980s and the early 2000s, the main observed changes were a general increase in surface velocity and a decrease in internal resistivity. At a multi-year scale, the high correlation between surface movement and snow thickness in the preceding December appears to confirm the importance of snow cover conditions in early winter through their influence on the ground thermal regime. A comparison of surface velocities, regional climatic datasets and ground sub-surface temperatures over six years suggests a strong relation between rock glacier deformation and ground temperature, as well as a role for liquid water due to melt of thick snow cover. Finally, unusual surface lowering that accompanied peak velocities in 2004 may be due to a general thaw of the top of the permafrost, probably caused both by two successive snowy winters and by high energy inputs during the warm summer of 2003.

Swiss Alps Jungfrau Aletsch UNESCO World Heritage Site - The state of this World Heritage region as a starting point for regional monitoring

The UNESCO listing as World Heritage Site confirms the outstanding qualities of the high-mountain region around the Great Aletsch Glacier. The region of the World Heritage Site now faces the responsibility to make these qualities visible and to preserve them for future generations. Consequently the qualities of the site must not be regarded in isolation but in the context of the entire region with its dynamics and developments. Regional monitoring is the observation and evaluation of temporal changes in target variables. It is thus an obligation towards UNESCO, who demands regular reports about the state of the listed World Heritage assets. It also allows statements about sustainable regional development and can be the basis for early recognition of threats to the outstanding qualities. Monitoring programmes face three major challenges: first, great care must be taken in defining the target qualities to be monitored or the monitoring would remain vague. Secondly, the selection of ideal indicators to describe these qualities is impeded by inadequate data quality and availability, compromises are inevitable. Thirdly, there is always an element of insecurity in the interpretation of the results as to what influences and determines the changes in the target qualities. The first survey of the monitoring programme confirmed the exceptional qualities of the region and also highlighted problematic issues.

Archaeological Discoveries on Schnidejoch and at Other Ice Sites in the European Alps

Only a few sites in the Alps have produced archaeological finds from melting ice. To date, prehistoric finds from four sites dating from the Neolithic period, the Bronze Age, and the Iron Age have been recovered from small ice patches (Schnidejoch, Lötschenpass, Tisenjoch, and Gemsbichl/Rieserferner). Glaciers, on the other hand, have yielded historic finds and frozen human remains that are not more than a few hundred years old (three glacier mummies from the 16th to the 19th century and military finds from World Wars I and II). Between 2003 and 2010, numerous archaeological finds were recovered from a melting ice patch on the Schnidejoch in the Bernese Alps (Cantons of Berne and Valais, Switzerland). These finds date from the Neolithic period, the Early Bronze Age, the Iron Age, Roman times, and the Middle Ages, spanning a period of 6000 years. The Schnidejoch, at an altitude of 2756 m asl, is a pass in the Wildhorn region of the western Bernese Alps. It has yielded some of the earliest evidence of Neolithic human activity at high altitude in the Alps. The abundant assemblage of finds contains a number of unique artifacts, mainly from organic materials like leather, wood, bark, and fibers. The site clearly proves access to high-mountain areas as early as the 5th millennium BC, and the chronological distribution of the finds indicates that the Schnidejoch pass was used mainly during periods when glaciers were retreating.

Archaeology in Switzerland between lakes and mountains.

Switzerland has an extraordinarily rich archaeological heritage from the Neolithic and the Bronze Age, dating back nearly 7000 years. Since the mid-19th century, the first pile dwellings were discovered in the lakes of the Central Plateau. Since 2011 these sites are part of the UNESCO world heritage „Prehistoric pile-dwellings around the Alps“. Not only lakes, but also Swiss mountains preserve extraordinary archaeological remains: from an alpine pass in the Bernese Alps prehistoric objects are melting out from the ice. Perfect preservation conditions and modern archaeological methods allow exploring the development of early agrarian societies in this part of the world. We can reconstruct their settlements and follow their exchange with other communities. Archaeology under water and in alpine environments allows fascinating insights into the beginnings of our history.

Stratigraphie, morphodynamique, paléoenvironnements des terrains sédimentaires meubles à forte déclivité du domaine périglaciaire alpin

Dans le contexte d'un climat de plus en plus chaud, une étude « géosystémique » de la répartition du pergélisol dans l'ensemble d'un versant périglaciaire alpin, de la paroi rocheuse jusqu'au glacier rocheux, s'avère primordiale. S'insérant dans cette problématique, ce travail de thèse vise comme objectif général l'étude des versants d'éboulis situés à l'intérieur de la ceinture du pergélisol discontinu selon deux volets de recherche différents : une étude de la stratigraphie et de la répartition du pergélisol dans les éboulis de haute altitude et des processus qui lui sont associés ; une reconstitution de l'histoire paléoenvironnementale du domaine périglaciaire alpin pendant le Tardiglaciaire et l'Holocène. La stratigraphie et la répartition spatiale du pergélisol a été étudiée dans cinq éboulis des Alpes Valaisannes (Suisse), dont trois ont fait l'objet de forages profonds, grâce à la prospection géophysique de détail effectuée à l'aide de méthodes thermiques, de résistivité, sismiques et nucléaires. Les mesures effectuées ont permis de mettre en évidence que, dans les cinq éboulis étudiés, la répartition du pergélisol est discontinue et aucun des versants n'est intégralement occupé par du pergélisol. En particulier, il a été possible de prouver de manière directe que, dans un éboulis, le pergélisol est présent dans les parties inférieures du versant et absent dans les parties supérieures. Trois facteurs de contrôle principaux de la répartition du pergélisol déterminée au sein des éboulis étudiés ont été individualisés, pouvant agir seuls ou de manière combinée : la ventilation ascendante, l'augmentation de la granulométrie en direction de l'aval et la redistribution de la neige par le vent et les avalanches. Parmi ceux-ci, la relation ventilation-granulométrie semble être le facteur de contrôle principal permettant d'expliquer la présence de pergélisol dans les parties inférieures d'un éboulis et son absence dans les parties supérieures. Enfin, l'analyse de la structure des éboulis périglaciaires de haute altitude a permis de montrer que la stratigraphie du pergélisol peut être un élément important pour l'interprétation de la signification paléoclimatique de ce type de formes. Pour le deuxième volet de la recherche, grâce aux datations relatives effectuées à l'aide de l'utilisation conjointe de la méthode paléogéographique et du marteau de Schmidt, il a été possible de définir la chrono-stratigraphie du retrait glaciaire et du développement des glaciers rocheux et des versants d'éboulis des quatre régions des Alpes suisses étudiées (régions du Mont Gelé - Mont Fort, des Fontanesses et de Chamosentse, dans les Alpes Valaisannes, et Massif de la Cima di Gana Bianca, dans les Alpes Tessinoises). La compilation de toutes les datations effectuées a permis de montrer que la plupart des glaciers rocheux actifs étudiés se seraient développés soit juste avant et/ou pendant l'Optimum Climatique Holocène de 9.5-6.3 ka cal BP, soit au plus tard juste après cet évènement climatique majeur du dernier interglaciaire. Parmi les glaciers rocheux fossiles datés, la plupart aurait commencé à se former dans la deuxième moitié du Tardiglaciaire et se serait inactivé dans la première partie de l'Optimum Climatique Holocène. Pour les éboulis étudiés, les datations effectuées ont permis d'observer que leur surface date de la période entre le Boréal et l'Atlantique récent, indiquant que les taux d'éboulisation après la fin de l'Optimum Climatique Holocène ont dû être faibles, et que l'intervalle entre l'âge maximal et l'âge minimal est dans la plupart des cas relativement court (4-6 millénaires), indiquant que les taux d'éboulisation durant la période de formation des éboulis ont dû être importants. Grâce au calcul des taux d'érosion des parois rocheuses sur la base du volume de matériaux rocheux pour quatre des éboulis étudiés, il a été possible mettre en évidence l'existence d'une « éboulisation parapériglaciaire » liée à la dégradation du pergélisol dans les parois rocheuses, fonctionnant principalement durant les périodes de réchauffement climatique rapide comme cela a été le cas au début du Bølling, du Préboréal à la fin de l'Atlantique récent et, peut-être, à partir des années 1980. - In the context of a warmer climate, a « geosystemical » study of the permafrost distribution in a whole alpine periglacial hillslope, from the rockwall to the rockglacier, is of great importance. With respect to this problem, the general objective of this PhD thesis is the global study of talus slopes located within the alpine periglacial belt following two different research axes: the analysis of the internal structure and of the permafrost distribution of high altitude talus slopes and of the related processes; the reconstruction of the palaeoenvironmental history of the alpine periglacial belt during the Lateglacial and the Holocene. The stratigraphy and the permafrost distribution were studied in five talus slopes of the Valais Alps (Switzerland) with the analysis of borehole data (on three of the five talus slopes) and other methods of permafrost prospecting: Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT), Refraction Seismic Tomography (RST) and nuclear well logging. The collected data shows that, in all of the studied talus slopes, permafrost distribution is discontinuous and that neither of the hillslopes is integrally characterised by permafrost. In particular, this data proves by direct investigations that, in talus slopes, permafrost is present in the lower parts of the hillslope, whereas it is absent in the upper parts. Permafrost distribution in alpine talus slopes is depending of the combination of almost three controlling factors, whose respective importance is variable: the chimney effect, the increase of grain size downslope and the redistribution of snow by avalanches. Depending on the size of the talus and on topographical and geomorphological heterogeneities, various cases are possible: one dominant controlling factor or the combination of various factors. Nevertheless, it would be an error to consider each controlling factor independently, without considering their relationships. Between these controlling factors, the relationship chimney effect/grain size seems to be the most important factor controlling the presence of permafrost in the lowest part of periglacial talus slopes, and its absence in the upper parts. Finally, the analysis of the talus structure shows that the permafrost stratigraphy may be an important element of interpretation of the palaeoclimatic significance of an alpine talus slope. The second research axe focused on the establishment of a chronology of the Lateglacial glacier retreat and the dating of rockglaciers and talus slopes development in four studied regions of the Swiss Alps (Mont Gelé - Mont Fort, Fontanesses and Chamosentse regions, in the Valais Alps, and the Cima di Gana Bianca Massif, in the Ticino Alps). The compilation of the dates acquired through the combination of the palaeogeographical method and of the Schmidt hammer indicates that most of the investigated active rockglaciers started to evolve during the early phases of the Holocene or, at the latest, after the early-to-mid Holocene Climatic Optimum (ending around 6.3 ka cal BP). For the dated relict rockglaciers, most of them started to evolve in the second half of the Lateglacial, and probably became inactive at the beginning of the Holocene Climatic Optimum. For the investigated talus slopes, the relative dating carried out allowed to show that their surface date from the period included between the Boreal and the end of the Atlantic, pointing out that the rockwall retreat after the end of the Holocene Climatic Optimum was weak, and that the interval between maximal and minimal ages is in most cases relatively short (4-6 millennia). Therefore, the rockwall retreat during the development period of the talus slopes must has been considerable. Thanks to the calculation of rockwall erosion rates based on the volume of talus accumulations for four of the investigated hillslopes, it was possible to find evidences of the existence of "paraperiglacial rockfall phases" related to the permafrost degradation in rockwalls. These phases coincide with rapid climate warming periods, as at the beginning of the Bølling, during the Preboreal or, maybe, since 1980.

Oxygen-isotope thermometry of quartz-calcite veins - Unraveling the thermal-tectonic history of the subgreenschist facies Morcles nappe (Swiss Alps)

Combined structural analysis and oxygen isotope thermometry of syntectonic quartz-calcite fibrous veins can be used to correlate the thermal history of deformed rocks,vith specific structural and tectonic events. Results are presented for the Mercies nappe in the western Helvetic Alps, Switzerland, where mineral parageneses, illite `'crystallinity,'' and fluid inclusion chemistry record an apparent peak metamorphic temperature gradient that increased across the Morcles nappe from anchizonal conditions in the foreland to epizonal conditions in its hinterland root zone. Twenty-seven quartz-calcite veins were analyzed in this study in order to determine the temperatures of veining during formation and deformation of the nappe, Peak metamorphic temperatures ranged from approximate to 260 to 290 degrees C in the shallower, foreland localities and to approximate to 330 to 350 degrees C in the deeper, more hinterland localities at the end of S1-foliation formation, related to large-scale folding. Temperatures gradually decreased throughout the nappe during subsequent development of the S2 foliation and S3 crenulation cleavage, Uplift and erosion of the overlying nappe pile resulted in slow cooling of the Morcles nappe during the waning stages of the Alpine Orogeny. The dominant foliation-forming deformation of the Morcles nappe occurred at elevated temperatures over the course of 10 to 15 Ma. Combined structure-oxygen isotope analyses of quartz-calcite veins yield better temperature and temporal constraints on the thermal histories of subgreenschist vein-bearing tectonites than do other geothermometers.

Lidar measurement of surface melt for a temperate Alpine glacier at the seasonal and hourly scales

This study shows how a new generation of terrestrial laser scanners can be used to investigate glacier surface ablation and other elements of glacial hydrodynamics at exceptionally high spatial and temporal resolution. The study area is an Alpine valley glacier, Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland. Here we use an ultra-long-range lidar RIEGL VZ-6000 scanner, having a laser specifically designed for measurement of snow- and ice-cover surfaces. We focus on two timescales: seasonal and daily. Our results show that a near-infrared scanning laser system can provide high-precision elevation change and ablation data from long ranges, and over relatively large sections of the glacier surface. We use it to quantify spatial variations in the patterns of surface melt at the seasonal scale, as controlled by both aspect and differential debris cover. At the daily scale, we quantify the effects of ogive-related differences in ice surface debris content on spatial patterns of ablation. Daily scale measurements point to possible hydraulic jacking of the glacier associated with short-term water pressure rises. This latter demonstration shows that this type of lidar may be used to address subglacial hydrologic questions, in addition to motion and ablation measurements.

L’archéologie entre glaciers et sommets. Dernières découvertes dans les Alpes Bernoises (Cantons de Berne et du Valais, Suisse)

Connus sous le nom populaire de palafittes, les habitats préhistoriques construits sur les rives des lacs subalpins du Néolithique à l’aube de l’âge du Fer (entre 5300 et 700 av. J.-C.) offrent des informations exceptionnelles sur l’évolution culturelle d’une importante région européenne, grâce à la préservation remarquable des matériaux organiques, en particulier du bois. À partir de la deuxième moitié du XXe siècle, le perfectionnement des techniques de fouille subaquatiques et de la dendrochronologie permettront la construction d’un schéma chronologique précis pour l’Europe nord-alpine. Les recherches contribueront à des observations d’ordre écologique à l’échelle locale et régionale et à l’identification des rythmes de développement des villages. Sous l’égide de l'UNESCO, les années 2010 verront la constitution d’un inventaire vaste et uniforme des sites préhistoriques des lacs circumalpins, classés Patrimoine culturel mondial en juin 2011. De nombreux objets préhistoriques, romains et médiévaux ont été découverts entre 2003 et 2010, au Schnidejoch, un col des Alpes bernoises occidentales à 2756 m d’altitude, à la frontière entre les cantons de Berne et du Valais. Les hautes températures de l'été 2003 ont provoqué la fonte d'un petit champ de glace et mis en lumière les vestiges. Les recherches ont été programmées à la suite d’une série d’informations fournies par des randonneurs. Les objets en matière organique (bois, écorce de bouleau, cuir, fibres végétales) revêtent une très grande importance car ils ont permis l’obtention de plus d’une cinquantaine de datations radiocarbone ; elles indiquent le passage du col entre la moitié du Ve millénaire av. J.-C. et l’année 1000 de notre ère. En outre, les séries de datations suggèrent l’alternance de périodes de praticabilité et d’inaccessibilité du col. Le Schnidejoch est actuellement le plus ancien témoignage de la traversée des Alpes, reliant l‘Oberland bernois par les vallées de la Simme et du Rhône.

Field-scale water transport in unsaturated crystalline rock

Safe disposal of toxic wastes in geologic formations requires minimal water and gas movement in the vicinity of storage areas, Ventilation of repository tunnels or caverns built in solid rock can desaturate the near field up to a distance of meters from the rock surface, even when the surrounding geological formation is saturated and under hydrostatic pressures. A tunnel segment at the Grimsel test site located in the Aare granite of the Bernese Alps (central Switzerland) has been subjected to a resaturation and, subsequently, to a controlled desaturation, Using thermocouple psychrometers (TP) and time domain reflectometry (TDR), the water potentials psi and water contents theta were measured within the unsaturated granodiorite matrix near the tunnel wall at depths between 0 and 160 cm. During the resaturation the water potentials in the first 30 cm from the rock surface changed within weeks from values of less than -1.5 MPa to near saturation. They returned to the negative initial values during desaturation, The dynamics of this saturation-desaturation regime could be monitored very sensitively using the thermocouple psychrometers, The TDR measurements indicated that water contents changed dose to the surface, but at deeper installation depths the observed changes were within the experimental noise. The field-measured data of the desaturation cycle were used to test the predictive capabilities of the hydraulic parameter functions that were derived from the water retention characteristics psi(theta) determined in the laboratory. A depth-invariant saturated hydraulic conductivity k(s) = 3.0 x 10(-11) m s(-1) was estimated from the psi(t) data at all measurement depths, using the one-dimensional, unsaturated water flow and transport model HYDRUS Vogel er al., 1996, For individual measurement depths, the estimated k(s) varied between 9.8 x 10(-12) and 6.1 x 10(-11) The fitted k(s) values fell within the range of previously estimated k(s) for this location and led to a satisfactory description of the data, even though the model did not include transport of water vapor.

The tectonometamorphic evolution of the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes (internal Western Alps): review and synthesis

This study reviews and synthesizes the present knowledge on the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes, the highest tectonic elements in the Western Alps (Switzerland and Italy), which comprise pieces of pre-Alpine basement and Mesozoic cover. All of the available data are integrated in a crustal-scale kinematic model with the aim to reconstruct the Alpine tectono-metamorphic evolution of the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes. Although major uncertainties remain in the pre-Alpine geometry, the basement and cover sequences of the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes are seen as part of a thinned continental crust derived from the Adriatic margin. The earliest stages of the Alpine evolution are interpreted as recording late Cretaceous subduction of the Adria-derived Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes below the South-Alpine domain. During this subduction, several sheets of crustal material were stacked and separated by shear zones that rework remnants of their Mesozoic cover. The recently described Roisan-Cignana Shear Zone of the Dent Blanche Tectonic System represents such a shear zone, indicating that the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes represent a stack of several individual nappes. During the subsequent subduction of the Piemonte–Liguria Ocean large-scale folding of the nappe stack (including the Roisan-Cignana Shear Zone) took place under greenschist facies conditions, which indicates partial exhumation of the Dent Blanche Tectonic System. The entrance of the Briançonnais micro-continent within the subduction zone led to a drastic change in the deformation pattern of the Alpine belt, with rapid exhumation of the eclogite-facies ophiolite bearing units and thrust propagation towards the foreland. Slab breakoff probably was responsible for allowing partial melting in the mantle and Oligocene intrusions into the most internal parts of the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes. Finally, indentation of the Adriatic plate into the orogenic wedge resulted in the formation of the Vanzone back-fold, which marks the end of the pervasive ductile deformation within the Sesia–Dent Blanche nappes during the earliest Miocene.

Geophysical investigations in the European Alps

Joint interpretation of magnetotelluric and geomagnetic depth sounding data in the western European Alps offer new insights into the conductivity structure of the Earth's crust and mantle. This first large scale electromagnetic study in the Alps covers a cross-section from Germany to northern Italy and shows the importance of the alpine mountain chain as an interrupter of continuous conductors. Poor data quality due to the highly crystalline underground is overcome by Remote Reference and Robust Processing techniques. 3d-forward-modelling reveals on the one hand interrupted dipping crustal conductors with maximum conductance of 4960 S and on the other hand a lithosphere thickening up to 208 km beneath the central western Alps. Graphite networks arising from Paleozoic sedimentary deposits are considered to be accountable for the occurrence of high conductivity and the distribution pattern of crustal conductors. The influence of huge sedimentary molasse basins on the electromagnetic data is suggested to be minor compared with the influence of crustal conductors. In conclusion, electromagnetic results can be attributed to the geological, tectonic and palaeogeographical background. Dipping direction (S-SE) and maximum angle (10.1°) of the northern crustal conductor reveal the main thrusting conditions beneath the Helvetic Alps whereas the existence of a crustal conductor in the Briançonnais supports theses about its palaeographic belonging to the Iberian Peninsula.