954 resultados para Ageing of population


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A population register is an inventory of residents within a country, with their characteristics (date of birth, sex, marital status, etc.) and other socio-economic data, such as occupation or education. However, data on population are also stored in numerous other public registers such as tax, land, building and housing, military, foreigners, vehicles, etc. Altogether they contain vast amounts of personal and sensitive information. Access to public information is granted by law in many countries, but this transparency is generally subject to tensions with data protection laws. This paper proposes a framework to analyze data access (or protection) requirements, as well as a model of metadata for data exchange.

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Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

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The prevalence of cardiovascular diseases is high in the old age. These conditions have a negative impact on the quality of life and are associated with a high risk of disability. A marked increase in the number of affected individuals is likely, in coming decades, with population aging. Primary cardiovascular prevention, but also an early recognition of subclinical heart diseases and secondary and tertiary prevention will be of up most importance for individuals (quality of life) and for societies (burden of functional impairments) as the baby-boom generation reaches retirement age.

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Understanding tree recruitment is needed to forecast future forest distribution. Many studies have reported the relevant ecological factors that affect recruitment success in trees, but the potential for genetic-based differences in recruitment has often been neglected. In this study, we established a semi-natural reciprocal sowing experiment to test for local adaptation and microenvironment effects (evaluated here by canopy cover) in the emergence and early survival of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an emblematic Mediterranean forest tree. A novel application of molecular markers was also developed to test for family selection and, thus, for potential genetic change over generations. Overall, we did not find evidence to support local adaptation at the recruitment stage in our semi-natural experiment. Moreover, only weak family selection (if any) was found, suggesting that in stressful environments with low survival, stochastic processes and among-year climate variability may drive recruitment. Nevertheless, our study revealed that, at early stages of recruitment, microenvironments may favor the population with the best adapted life strategy, irrespectively of its (local or non-local) origin. We also found that emergence time is a key factor for seedling survival in stressful Mediterranean environments. Our study highlights the complexity of the factors influencing the early stages of establishment of maritime pine and provides insights into possible management actions aimed at environmental change impact mitigation. In particular, we found that the high stochasticity of the recruitment process in stressful environments and the differences in population-specific adaptive strategies may difficult assisted migration schemes.

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To test whether quantitative traits are under directional or homogenizing selection, it is common practice to compare population differentiation estimates at molecular markers (F(ST)) and quantitative traits (Q(ST)). If the trait is neutral and its determinism is additive, then theory predicts that Q(ST) = F(ST), while Q(ST) > F(ST) is predicted under directional selection for different local optima, and Q(ST) < F(ST) is predicted under homogenizing selection. However, nonadditive effects can alter these predictions. Here, we investigate the influence of dominance on the relation between Q(ST) and F(ST) for neutral traits. Using analytical results and computer simulations, we show that dominance generally deflates Q(ST) relative to F(ST). Under inbreeding, the effect of dominance vanishes, and we show that for selfing species, a better estimate of Q(ST) is obtained from selfed families than from half-sib families. We also compare several sampling designs and find that it is always best to sample many populations (>20) with few families (five) rather than few populations with many families. Provided that estimates of Q(ST) are derived from individuals originating from many populations, we conclude that the pattern Q(ST) > F(ST), and hence the inference of directional selection for different local optima, is robust to the effect of nonadditive gene actions.

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Several population pharmacokinetic (PPK) analyses of the anticancer drug imatinib have been performed to investigate different patient populations and covariate effects. The present analysis offers a systematic qualitative and quantitative summary and comparison of those. Its primary objective was to provide useful information for evaluating the expectedness of imatinib plasma concentration measurements in the frame of therapeutic drug monitoring. The secondary objective was to review clinically important concentration-effect relationships to provide help in evaluating the potential suitability of plasma concentration values. Nine PPK models describing total imatinib plasma concentration were identified. Parameter estimates were standardized to common covariate values whenever possible. Predicted median exposure (Cmin) was derived by simulations and ranged between models from 555 to 1388 ng/mL (grand median: 870 ng/mL and interquartile "reference" range: 520-1390 ng/mL). Covariates of potential clinical importance (up to 30% change in pharmacokinetic predicted by at least 1 model) included body weight, albumin, α1 acid glycoprotein, and white blood cell count. Various other covariates were included but were statistically not significant or seemed clinically less important or physiologically controversial. Concentration-response relationships had more importance below the average reference range and concentration-toxicity relationships above. Therapeutic drug monitoring-guided dosage adjustment seems justified for imatinib, but a formal predictive therapeutic range remains difficult to propose in the absence of prospective target concentration intervention trials. To evaluate the expectedness of a drug concentration measurement in practice, this review allows comparison of the measurement either to the average reference range or to a specific range accounting for individual patient characteristics. For future research, external PPK model validation or meta-model development should be considered.

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In June 2006, the Swiss Parliament made two important decisions with regards to public registers' governance and individuals' identification. It adopted a new law on the harmonisation of population registers in order to simplify statistical data collection and data exchange from around 4'000 decentralized registers, and it also approved the introduction of a Unique Person Identifier (UPI). The law is rather vague about the implementation of this harmonisation and even though many projects are currently being undertaken in this domain, most of them are quite technical. We believe there is a need for analysis tools and therefore we propose a conceptual framework based on three pillars (Privacy, Identity and Governance) to analyse the requirements in terms of data management for population registers.

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As with the 1970 Census, the U.S. Department of labor's Employment and Training Administration (ETA) has compiled a series of special reports for the use of program managers and other social scientists concerned with human resources. These reports. which were designed cooperatively by federal, state and local government research staff, include much unpublished data from the 1980 Census Summary Tape Files. The reports in this series cover not only all of the major government and census designated geographic areas in the United States, but also the unique administrative areas that concern program managers.

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Microsatellite loci mutate at an extremely high rate and are generally thought to evolve through a stepwise mutation model. Several differentiation statistics taking into account the particular mutation scheme of the microsatellite have been proposed. The most commonly used is R(ST) which is independent of the mutation rate under a generalized stepwise mutation model. F(ST) and R(ST) are commonly reported in the literature, but often differ widely. Here we compare their statistical performances using individual-based simulations of a finite island model. The simulations were run under different levels of gene flow, mutation rates, population number and sizes. In addition to the per locus statistical properties, we compare two ways of combining R(ST) over loci. Our simulations show that even under a strict stepwise mutation model, no statistic is best overall. All estimators suffer to different extents from large bias and variance. While R(ST) better reflects population differentiation in populations characterized by very low gene-exchange, F(ST) gives better estimates in cases of high levels of gene flow. The number of loci sampled (12, 24, or 96) has only a minor effect on the relative performance of the estimators under study. For all estimators there is a striking effect of the number of samples, with the differentiation estimates showing very odd distributions for two samples.

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In bubbly flow simulations, bubble size distribution is an important factor in determination of hydrodynamics. Beside hydrodynamics, it is crucial in the prediction of interfacial area available for mass transfer and in the prediction of reaction rate in gas-liquid reactors such as bubble columns. Solution of population balance equations is a method which can help to model the size distribution by considering continuous bubble coalescence and breakage. Therefore, in Computational Fluid Dynamic simulations it is necessary to couple CFD and Population Balance Model (CFD-PBM) to get reliable distribution. In the current work a CFD-PBM coupled model is implemented as FORTRAN subroutines in ANSYS CFX 10 and it has been tested for bubbly flow. This model uses the idea of Multi Phase Multi Size Group approach which was previously presented by Sha et al. (2006) [18]. The current CFD-PBM coupled method considers inhomogeneous flow field for different bubble size groups in the Eulerian multi-dispersed phase systems. Considering different velocity field for bubbles can give the advantageof more accurate solution of hydrodynamics. It is also an improved method for prediction of bubble size distribution in multiphase flow compared to available commercial packages.

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Detecting the action of selection in natural populations can be achieved using the QST-FST comparison that relies on the estimation of FST with neutral markers, and QST using quantitative traits potentially under selection. QST higher than FST suggests the action of directional selection and thus potential local adaptation. In this article, we apply the QST-FST comparison to four populations of the hermaphroditic freshwater snail Radix balthica located in a floodplain habitat. In contrast to most studies published so far, we did not detect evidence of directional selection for local optima for any of the traits we measured: QST calculated using three different methods was never higher than FST. A strong inbreeding depression was also detected, indicating that outcrossing is probably predominant over selfing in the studied populations. Our results suggest that in this floodplain habitat, local adaptation of R. balthica populations may be hindered by genetic drift, and possibly altered by uneven gene flow linked to flood frequency.

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Over the past two decades, an increasing amount of phylogeographic work has substantially improved our understanding of African biogeography, in particular the role played by Pleistocene pluvial-drought cycles on terrestrial vertebrates. However, still little is known on the evolutionary history of semi-aquatic animals, which faced tremendous challenges imposed by unpredictable availability of water resources. In this study, we investigate the Late Pleistocene history of the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius), using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence variation and range-wide sampling. We documented a global demographic and spatial expansion approximately 0.1-0.3 Myr ago, most likely associated with an episode of massive drainage overflow. These events presumably enabled a historical continent-wide gene flow among hippopotamus populations, and hence, no clear continental-scale genetic structuring remains. Nevertheless, present-day hippopotamus populations are genetically disconnected, probably as a result of the mid-Holocene aridification and contemporary anthropogenic pressures. This unique pattern contrasts with the biogeographic paradigms established for savannah-adapted ungulate mammals and should be further investigated in other water-associated taxa. Our study has important consequences for the conservation of the hippo, an emblematic but threatened species that requires specific protection to curtail its long-term decline.