Fertility in Namibia : Changes in fertility levels in North-Central Namibia 1960-2001, including an assessment of the impact of HIV

The aim of this study was to estimate the development of fertility in North-Central Namibia, former Ovamboland, from 1960 to 2001. Special attention was given to the onset of fertility decline and to the impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility. An additional aim was to introduce parish registers as a source of data for fertility research in Africa. Data used consisted of parish registers from Evangelical Lutheran congregations, the 1991 and 2001 Population and Housing Censuses, the 1992 and 2000 Namibia Demographic and Health Surveys, and the HIV sentinel surveillances of 1992-2004. Both period and cohort fertility were analysed. The P/F ratio method was used when analysing census data. The impact of HIV infection on fertility was estimated indirectly by comparing the fertility histories of women who died at an age of less than 50 years with the fertility of other women. The impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility was assessed both among infected women and in the general population. Fertility in the study population began to decline in 1980. The decline was rapid during the 1980s, levelled off in the early 1990s at the end of war of independence and then continued to decline until the end of the study period. According to parish registers, total fertility was 6.4 in the 1960s and 6.5 in the 1970s, and declined to 5.1 in the 1980s and 4.2 in the 1990s. Adjustment of these total fertility rates to correspond to levels of fertility based on data from the 1991 and 2001 censuses resulted in total fertility declining from 7.6 in 1960-79 to 6.0 in 1980-89, and to 4.9 in 1990-99. The decline was associated with increased age at first marriage, declining marital fertility and increasing premarital fertility. Fertility among adolescents increased, whereas the fertility of women in all other age groups declined. During the 1980s, the war of independence contributed to declining fertility through spousal separation and delayed marriages. Contraception has been employed in the study region since the 1980s, but in the early 1990s, use of contraceptives was still so limited that fertility was higher in North-Central Namibia than in other regions of the country. In the 1990s, fertility decline was largely a result of the increased prevalence of contraception. HIV prevalence among pregnant women increased from 4% in 1992 to 25% in 2001. In 2001, total fertility among HIV-infected women (3.7) was lower than that among other women (4.8), resulting in total fertility of 4.4 among the general population in 2001. The HIV epidemic explained more than a quarter of the decline in total fertility at population level during most of the 1990s. The HIV epidemic also reduced the number of children born by reducing the number of potential mothers. In the future, HIV will have an extensive influence on both the size and age structure of the Namibian population. Although HIV influences demographic development through both fertility and mortality, the effect through changes in fertility will be smaller than the effect through mortality. In the study region, as in some other regions of southern Africa, a new type of demographic transition is under way, one in which population growth stagnates or even reverses because of the combined effects of declining fertility and increasing mortality, both of which are consequences of the HIV pandemic.

Data Retention and the War against Terrorism : A considered and proportionate response?

'Data retention and the war against terrorism - a considered and proportionate response'. Journal of Information Law & Technology 2004 (3) RAE2008

Dying for 'Enduring Freedom': Accepting Responsibility for Civilian Casualties in the War against Terrorism

Wheeler, Nicholas, 'Dying for `Enduring Freedom': Accepting Responsibility for Civilian Casualties in the War against Terrorism', International Relations (2002) 16(2) pp.205-225 RAE2008

The War Between Mice and Elephants

Recent measurement based studies reveal that most of the Internet connections are short in terms of the amount of traffic they carry (mice), while a small fraction of the connections are carrying a large portion of the traffic (elephants). A careful study of the TCP protocol shows that without help from an Active Queue Management (AQM) policy, short connections tend to lose to long connections in their competition for bandwidth. This is because short connections do not gain detailed knowledge of the network state, and therefore they are doomed to be less competitive due to the conservative nature of the TCP congestion control algorithm. Inspired by the Differentiated Services (Diffserv) architecture, we propose to give preferential treatment to short connections inside the bottleneck queue, so that short connections experience less packet drop rate than long connections. This is done by employing the RIO (RED with In and Out) queue management policy which uses different drop functions for different classes of traffic. Our simulation results show that: (1) in a highly loaded network, preferential treatment is necessary to provide short TCP connections with better response time and fairness without hurting the performance of long TCP connections; (2) the proposed scheme still delivers packets in FIFO manner at each link, thus it maintains statistical multiplexing gain and does not misorder packets; (3) choosing a smaller default initial timeout value for TCP can help enhance the performance of short TCP flows, however not as effectively as our scheme and at the risk of congestion collapse; (4) in the worst case, our proposal works as well as a regular RED scheme, in terms of response time and goodput.

Justifying jihad: US politics, propaganda and the Afghan mujahedeen

Hard-line anti-communists in the United States recognised the potential for the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 to embroil their super-power rival in a ‘Vietnam-like quagmire.’ Their covert operation to arm the mujahedeen is well documented. This dissertation argues that propaganda and public diplomacy were powerful and essential instruments of this campaign. It examines the protagonists of this strategy, their policies, initiatives and programmes offering a comprehensive analysis heretofore absent. It stretches from the dying days of the Carter administration when Zbigniew Brzezinski saw the ‘opportunity’ presented by the invasion to the Soviet’s withdrawal in 1989. The aim of these information strategies was to damage Soviet credibility and enhance that of the US, considered under threat from growing ‘moral equivalence’ amongst international publics. The conflict could help the US regain strategic advantage in South Asia undermined by the ‘loss’ of Iran. The Reagan administration used it to justify the projection of US military might that it believed was eviscerated under Carter and emasculated by the lingering legacy of Vietnam. The research engages with source material from the Reagan Presidential Library, the United States Information Agency archives and the Library of Congress as well as a number of online archives. The material is multi-archival and multi-media including documentaries, booklets, press conferences, summit programmes and news-clips as well as national security policy documents and contemporaneous media commentary. It concludes that propaganda and public diplomacy were integral to the Reagan administration and other mujahedeen supporters’ determination to challenge the USSR. It finds that the conflict was used to justify military rearmament, further strategic aims and reassert US power. These Cold War machinations had a considerable impact on the course of the conflict and undermined efforts at resolution and reconciliation with profound implications for the future stability of Afghanistan and the world.

Reality-experiential history documentaries: the Trench (BBC, 2002) and Britain's modern memory of the First World War

Culloden (BBC, 1964) The Great War (BBC, 1964) 1914-18 (BBC/KCET, 1996) Haig: the Unknown Soldier (BBC, 1996) Veterans: the Last Survivors of the Great War (BBC, 1998) 1900s House (Channel 4, 1999) The Western Front (BBC, 1999) History of Britain (BBC, 2000) 1940s House (Channel 4, 2001) The Ship (BBC, 2002) Surviving the Iron Age (BBC, 2001) The Trench (BBC, 2002) Frontier House (Channel 4, 2002) Lad's Army (BBC, 2002) Edwardian Country House (Channel 4, 2002) Spitfire Ace (Channel 4, 2003) World War One in Colour (Channel 5, 2003) 1914: the War Revolution (BBC, 2003) The First World War (Channel 4, 2003) Dunkirk (BBC, 2004) Dunkirk: The Soldier's Story (BBC, 2004) D-Day to Berlin (BBC, 2004) Bad Lad's Army (ITV, 2004) Destination D-Day: Raw Recruits (BBC, 2004) Bomber Crew (Channel 4, 2004) Battlefield Britain (BBC, 2004) The Last Battle (ARTE/ZDF, 2005) Who Do You Think You Are? (BBC, 2004, 2006) The Somme (Channel 4, 2005) [From the Publisher]

Introduction: the impact of the 'War on Terror' on executive–legislative relations: a global perspective

In democratic polities, constitutional equilibria or balances of power between the executive and the legislature shift over time. Normative and empirical political theorists have long recognised that war, civil unrest, economic and political crises, terrorist attacks, and other events strengthen the power of the executive, disrupt and threaten constitutional politics, and damage democratic institutions: crises require swift action and executives are thought to be more capable than parliaments and legislatures of taking such actions. The terrorist attacks on New York and Washington on 11 September 2001 and the ensuing so-called 'war on terror' declared by President Bush clearly constituted a crisis, not only in the United States but also in other political systems, in part because of the US's hegemonic position in defining and shaping many other states' foreign and domestic policies. Dicey, Schmitt, and Rossiter suggest that critical events and political crises inevitably trigger the concentration of (emergency) powers in the hands of the executive. Aristotle and Machiavelli questioned the inevitability of this process. This article and the articles that follow in this Special Issue utilise empirical evidence, through the use of case studies of the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, Australia, Israel, Italy and Indonesia, to address this debate. Specifically, the issue explores to what extent the external shock or crisis of 9/11 (and other terrorist attacks) and the ensuing 'war on terror' significantly changed the balance of executive-legislative relations from t (before the crisis) to t+1 (after the crisis) in these political systems, all of which were the targets of actual or foiled terrorist attacks. The most significant findings are that the shock of 9/11 and the 'war on terror' elicited varied responses by national executives and legislatures/parliaments and thus the balance of executive-legislative relations in different political systems; that, therefore, executive-legislative relations are positive rather than zero-sum; and that domestic political contexts conditioned these institutional responses.

Congressional acquiescence to presidentialism in the US ‘War on Terror’

Congressional dominance theory holds that not only can the US Congress control the executive, it does. The terrorist attacks on New York and Washington on 11 September 2001 and the Bush administration's ensuing global 'war on terror' suggest a different result. Bush's response to 9/11 signalled not only new directions in US foreign and domestic policy but a new stage in the aggrandisement of presidential power in the United States and a further step in the marginalisation of the Congress. Informed by a constitutional doctrine unknown to the framers of the US Constitution, the Bush administration pursued a presidentialist or 'ultra-separationist' governing strategy that was disrespectful to the legislature's intended role in the separated system. Using its unilateral powers, in public and in secret, claiming 'inherent' authority from the Constitution, and exploiting the public's fear of a further terrorist attack and of endangering the lives of US troops abroad, the administration skilfully drove its legislation through the Congress. Occasionally, the Congress was able to extract concessions - notably in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, when partisan control of the government was split - but more typically, for most of the period, the Congress acquiesced to administration demands, albeit with the consolation of minor concessions. The administration not only dominated the lawmaking process, it also cowed legislators into legitimating often highly controversial (and sometimes illegal) administration-determined definitions of counter-terrorism and national security policy. Certainly, the Congress undertook a considerable amount of oversight during the period of the 'war on terror'; lawmakers also complained. But the effects on policy were marginal. This finding held true for periods of Democratic as well as Republican majorities.

The inadequate dominance of realism : an analysis of the U.S. war on terror /

There has been and will continue to be substantial debate over how the international system can best be characterized. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate that the international system can best be characterized by the essential features of realism, but the use of realist policy prescriptions are inadequate when applied independently to deal with the threat of terrorism as it exists today. In order to demonstrate this an examination of realism in the international system, U.S. foreign policy, and case analysis of Afghanistan and Iraq will be undertaken to demonstrate that although realist policy prescriptions do have a role in dealing with modem transnational security threats, these prescriptions on their own are inadequate when dealing with terrorism.

Colin Duquemin fonds, 1935, 1968-2001, n.d.

Colin Duquemin was born in 1932 in Guernsey, British Channel Islands, and came to Canada as a young adult. He attended McMaster University (B.A.), the University of Toronto (B.Ed.), the State University of New York at Buffalo (M.A.) and the University of London, London, England (M.Sc.). He began his career as a tea taster and tea buyer in Colombo, Ceylon (Sri Lanka), but later became a teacher. He spent most of his teaching career as a manager of the St. Johns Outdoor Studies Centre, north of Fonthill, Ontario, developing environmentally related programmes for elementary and secondary school students. He was also active in many local organizations, serving as Associate Director of the St. Catharines Grape and Wine Festival Board, Chairman of the St. Catharines Historical Museum Board, President of the Niagara Military Institute and President of the Canadian Canal Society. In addition to the numerous curriculum materials he authored, Colin wrote the Driver’s Guide Series, highlighting the many points of interest in the Niagara region, including the Welland Canal, battlefields of the War of 1812, and the Niagara Parkway. He also wrote A Guide to the Grand River Canal (1980) with Daniel Glenney, The Fur Trade in Rupert’s Land: Opening up the Canadian Northwest (1992), Stick to the Guns! A short history of the 10th field battery, Royal Regiment of Canadian Artillery (1996), Niagara Rebels: the Niagara Frontier Incidents in the Upper Canada Rebellion, 1837-1838 ( 2001), and edited and contributed to A Lodge of Friendship: the History of Niagara Lodge, No. 2, A.F. & A.M, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario, Canada, 1792-1992 (1991). He died in December 2012.

Changements des politiques d’immigration et d’asile après les attentats du 11 septembre 2001 : rupture ou continuité ?

La visée de ce mémoire est d’expliquer les récents changements des lois sur l’immigration et l’asile. À prime abord, le moment de ces changements suggère une influence des attentats du 11 septembre 2001. La littérature avance toutefois que ces changements dateraient plutôt de la fin de la Guerre froide. Nous avons donc vérifié deux hypothèses, la première étant que les changements législatifs découlent de l’évolution des flux migratoires, et la seconde voulant qu’ils résultent d’une « connexion sécurité‐migration ». Nous avons d’abord eu recours aux écrits sur les changements institutionnels et les politiques d’immigration et d’asile et sur la constitution des migrations comme enjeu sécuritaire. Ensuite, nous avons étudié le contenu des lois sur l’immigration et l’asile de pays membres de l’OCDE de 1989 à 2008. Deux typologies ont été construites pour évaluer l’effet des flux migratoires sur lesdits changements législatifs. Enfin, une analyse lexicométrique nous a permis d’évaluer le poids des enjeux sécuritaires dans les lois sur l’immigration et l’asile depuis 1989. Nous avons noté l’absence de corrélation entre changements législatifs et flux migratoires mais la présence d’un lien entre ces changements et la « connexion sécurité‐migration ». Le rôle joué par le 11 septembre et d’autres attaques terroristes a été vérifié pour les États‐Unis, le Royaume‐Uni et l’Union européenne. Ce mémoire démontre ainsi la mutation des lois sur l’immigration et l’asile qui sont passées du statut de « régulateur des migrations internationales » à celui de « garant de la sécurité nationale ».