Experimental and model-based analysis of the steady-state and dynamic operating behaviour of the direct methanol fuel cell (DMFC)

Direct methanol fuel cell, DMFC, model, mass transport, Maxwell-Stefan, Flory-Huggins, crossover, polymer electrolyte membrane, Nafion

Predicting the potential for lightning activity in mediterranean storms based on the WRF model dynamic and microphysical fields

A new parameter is introduced: the lightning potential index (LPI), which is a measure of the potential for charge generation and separation that leads to lightning flashes in convective thunderstorms. The LPI is calculated within the charge separation region of clouds between 0 C and 20 C, where the noninductive mechanism involving collisions of ice and graupel particles in the presence of supercooled water is most effective. As shown in several case studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with explicit microphysics, the LPI is highly correlated with observed lightning. It is suggested that the LPI may be a useful parameter for predicting lightning as well as a tool for improving weather forecasting of convective storms and heavy rainfall.

A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Review of the literature on credit risk modeling : development of the past 10 years

This paper traces the developments of credit risk modeling in the past 10 years. Our work can be divided into two parts: selecting articles and summarizing results. On the one hand, by constructing an ordered logit model on historical Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes of articles about credit risk modeling, we sort out articles which are the most related to our topic. The result indicates that the JEL codes have become the standard to classify researches in credit risk modeling. On the other hand, comparing with the classical review Altman and Saunders(1998), we observe some important changes of research methods of credit risk. The main finding is that current focuses on credit risk modeling have moved from static individual-level models to dynamic portfolio models.

Country factors and the dynamic modeling of capital structure : an empirical study of latin american firms

Desenvolvemos modelos de ajuste parcial e de duration para testar a relevância de fatores específicos de países na determinação da estrutura de capital de empresas listadas nas bolsas de valores brasileira, chilena e mexicana. Utilizamos dados em painel, em um período que se estende do quarto trimestre de 1996 ao segundo trimestre de 2010, abrangendo 4403 observações relacionadas a 139 empresas diferentes. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que a dinâmica da estrutura de capital varia por país e que idiossincrasias locais são determinantes-chave dos níveis de alavancagem das empresas. Não detectamos comportamento explicado pela Teoria de Trade Off entre as empresas brasileiras, chilenas e mexicanas, o que indica que teorias alternativas possam comandar os processos de decisão de financiamento dos gestores latino americanos.

Dynamic critical behavior of percolation observables in the 2d Ising model

We present preliminary results of our numerical study of the critical dynamics of percolation observables for the two-dimensional Ising model. We consider the (Monte-Carlo) short-time evolution of the system obtained with a local heat-bath method and with the global Swendsen-Wang algorithm. In both cases, we find qualitatively different dynamic behaviors for the magnetization and Omega, the order parameter of the percolation transition. This may have implications for the recent attempts to describe the dynamics of the QCD phase transition using cluster observables.

Model for the Dynamics of the Cytoskeleton.

Particle tracking of microbeads attached to the cytoskeleton (CSK) reveals an intermittent dynamic. The mean squared displacement (MSD) is subdiffusive for small Δt and superdiffusive for large Δt, which are associated with periods of traps and periods of jumps respectively. The analysis of the displacements has shown a non-Gaussian behavior, what is indicative of an active motion, classifying the cells as a far from equilibrium material. Using Langevin dynamics, we reconstruct the dynamic of the CSK. The model is based on the bundles of actin filaments that link themself with the bead RGD coating, trapping it in an harmonic potential. We consider a one- dimensional motion of a particle, neglecting inertial effects (over-damped Langevin dynamics). The resultant force is decomposed in friction force, elastic force and random force, which is used as white noise representing the effect due to molecular agitation. These description until now shows a static situation where the bead performed a random walk in an elastic potential. In order to modeling the active remodeling of the CSK, we vary the equilibrium position of the potential. Inserting a motion in the well center, we change the equilibrium position linearly with time with constant velocity. The result found exhibits a MSD versus time ’tau’ with three regimes. The first regime is when ‘tau’ < ‘tau IND 0’, where ‘tau IND 0’ is the relaxation time, representing the thermal motion. At this regime the particle can diffuse freely. The second regime is a plateau, ‘tau IND 0’ < ‘tau’ < ‘tau IND 1’, representing the particle caged in the potential. Here, ‘tau IND 1’ is a characteristic time that limit the confinement period. And the third regime, ‘tau’ > ‘tau IND 1’, is when the particles are in the superdiffusive behavior. This is where most of the experiments are performed, under 20 frames per second (FPS), thus there is no experimental evidence that support the first regime. We are currently performing experiments with high frequency, up to 100 FPS, attempting to visualize this diffusive behavior. Beside the first regime, our simple model can reproduce MSD curves similar to what has been found experimentally, which can be helpful to understanding CSK structure and properties.

MODELING DYNAMICS OF OZONE AND NITROGEN OXIDES AT SUMMIT, GREENLAND WITH A 1-D PROCESS-SCALE MODEL

This work presents a 1-D process scale model used to investigate the chemical dynamics and temporal variability of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ozone (O3) within and above snowpack at Summit, Greenland for March-May 2009 and estimates surface exchange of NOx between the snowpack and surface layer in April-May 2009. The model assumes the surface of snowflakes have a Liquid Like Layer (LLL) where aqueous chemistry occurs and interacts with the interstitial air of the snowpack. Model parameters and initialization are physically and chemically representative of snowpack at Summit, Greenland and model results are compared to measurements of NOx and O3 collected by our group at Summit, Greenland from 2008-2010. The model paired with measurements confirmed the main hypothesis in literature that photolysis of nitrate on the surface of snowflakes is responsible for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) production in the top ~50 cm of the snowpack at solar noon for March – May time periods in 2009. Nighttime peaks of NO2 in the snowpack for April and May were reproduced with aqueous formation of peroxynitric acid (HNO4) in the top ~50 cm of the snowpack with subsequent mass transfer to the gas phase, decomposition to form NO2 at nighttime, and transportation of the NO2 to depths of 2 meters. Modeled production of HNO4 was hindered in March 2009 due to the low production of its precursor, hydroperoxy radical, resulting in underestimation of nighttime NO2 in the snowpack for March 2009. The aqueous reaction of O3 with formic acid was the major sync of O3 in the snowpack for March-May, 2009. Nitrogen monoxide (NO) production in the top ~50 cm of the snowpack is related to the photolysis of NO2, which underrepresents NO in May of 2009. Modeled surface exchange of NOx in April and May are on the order of 1011 molecules m-2 s-1. Removal of measured downward fluxes of NO and NO2 in measured fluxes resulted in agreement between measured NOx fluxes and modeled surface exchange in April and an order of magnitude deviation in May. Modeled transport of NOx above the snowpack in May shows an order of magnitude increase of NOx fluxes in the first 50 cm of the snowpack and is attributed to the production of NO2 during the day from the thermal decomposition and photolysis of peroxynitric acid with minor contributions of NO from HONO photolysis in the early morning.

Effect of vascular targeting agent in rat tumor model: dynamic contrast-enhanced versus diffusion-weighted MR imaging

PURPOSE: To compare dynamic contrast material-enhanced magnetic resonance (MR) imaging and diffusion-weighted MR imaging for noninvasive evaluation of early and late effects of a vascular targeting agent in a rat tumor model. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study protocol was approved by the local ethics committee for animal care and use. Thirteen rats with one rhabdomyosarcoma in each flank (26 tumors) underwent dynamic contrast-enhanced imaging and diffusion-weighted echo-planar imaging in a 1.5-T MR unit before intraperitoneal injection of combretastatin A4 phosphate and at early (1 and 6 hours) and later (2 and 9 days) follow-up examinations after the injection. Histopathologic examination was performed at each time point. The apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) of each tumor was calculated separately on the basis of diffusion-weighted images obtained with low b gradient values (ADC(low); b = 0, 50, and 100 sec/mm(2)) and high b gradient values (ADC(high); b = 500, 750, and 1000 sec/mm(2)). The difference between ADC(low) and ADC(high) was used as a surrogate measure of tissue perfusion (ADC(low) - ADC(high) = ADC(perf)). From the dynamic contrast-enhanced MR images, the volume transfer constant k and the initial slope of the contrast enhancement-time curve were calculated. For statistical analyses, a paired two-tailed Student t test and linear regression analysis were used. RESULTS: Early after administration of combretastatin, all perfusion-related parameters (k, initial slope, and ADC(perf)) decreased significantly (P < .001); at 9 days after combretastatin administration, they increased significantly (P < .001). Changes in ADC(perf) were correlated with changes in k (R(2) = 0.46, P < .001) and the initial slope (R(2) = 0.67, P < .001). CONCLUSION: Both dynamic contrast-enhanced MR imaging and diffusion-weighted MR imaging allow monitoring of perfusion changes induced by vascular targeting agents in tumors. Diffusion-weighted imaging provides additional information about intratumoral cell viability versus necrosis after administration of combretastatin.

Static GPS measurements and elevation model in the hinterland of Neumayer

As part of the CryoSat Cal/Val activities and the pre-site survey for an ice core drilling contributing to the International Partnerships in Ice Core Sciences (IPICS), ground based kinematic GPS measurements were conducted in early 2007 in the vicinity of the German overwintering station Neumayer (8.25° W and 70.65° S). The investigated area comprises the regions of the ice tongues Halvfarryggen and Søråsen, which rise from the Ekströmisen to a maximum of about 760 m surface elevation, and have an areal extent of about 100 km x 50 km each. Available digital elevation models (DEMs) from radar altimetry and the Antarctic Digital Database show elevation differences of up to hundreds of meters in this region, which necessitated an accurate survey of the conditions on-site. An improved DEM of the Ekströmisen surroundings is derived by a combination of highly accurate ground based GPS measurements, satellite derived laser altimetry data (ICESat), airborne radar altimetry (ARA), and radio echo sounding (RES). The DEM presented here achieves a vertical accuracy of about 1.3 m and can be used for improved ice dynamic modeling and mass balance studies.

A Knowledge Model for Automatic Configuration of Traffic Messages

This paper describes a knowledge model for a configuration problem in the do-main of traffic control. The goal of this model is to help traffic engineers in the dynamic selection of a set of messages to be presented to drivers on variable message signals. This selection is done in a real-time context using data recorded by traffic detectors on motorways. The system follows an advanced knowledge-based solution that implements two abstract problem solving methods according to a model-based approach recently proposed in the knowledge engineering field. Finally, the paper presents a discussion about the advantages and drawbacks found for this problem as a consequence of the applied knowledge modeling ap-proach.

Real-Time Dynamic PGD Calculation of Non-Linear Soil Behavior

El estudio sísmico en los últimos 50 años y el análisis del comportamiento dinámico del suelo revelan que el comportamiento del suelo es altamente no lineal e histéretico incluso para pequeñas deformaciones. El comportamiento no lineal del suelo durante un evento sísmico tiene un papel predominante en el análisis de la respuesta de sitio. Los análisis unidimensionales de la respuesta sísmica del suelo son a menudo realizados utilizando procedimientos lineales equivalentes, que requieren generalmente pocos parámetros conocidos. Los análisis de respuesta de sitio no lineal tienen el potencial para simular con mayor precisión el comportamiento del suelo, pero su aplicación en la práctica se ha visto limitada debido a la selección de parámetros poco documentadas y poco claras, así como una inadecuada documentación de los beneficios del modelado no lineal en relación al modelado lineal equivalente. En el análisis del suelo, el comportamiento del suelo es aproximado como un sólido Kelvin-Voigt con un módulo de corte elástico y amortiguamiento viscoso. En el análisis lineal y no lineal del suelo se están considerando geometrías y modelos reológicos más complejos. El primero está siendo dirigido por considerar parametrizaciones más ricas del comportamiento linealizado y el segundo mediante el uso de multi-modo de los elementos de resorte-amortiguador con un eventual amortiguador fraccional. El uso del cálculo fraccional está motivado en gran parte por el hecho de que se requieren menos parámetros para lograr la aproximación exacta a los datos experimentales. Basándose en el modelo de Kelvin-Voigt, la viscoelasticidad es revisada desde su formulación más estándar a algunas descripciones más avanzada que implica la amortiguación dependiente de la frecuencia (o viscosidad), analizando los efectos de considerar derivados fraccionarios para representar esas contribuciones viscosas. Vamos a demostrar que tal elección se traduce en modelos más ricos que pueden adaptarse a diferentes limitaciones relacionadas con la potencia disipada, amplitud de la respuesta y el ángulo de fase. Por otra parte, el uso de derivados fraccionarios permite acomodar en paralelo, dentro de un análogo de Kelvin-Voigt generalizado, muchos amortiguadores que contribuyen a aumentar la flexibilidad del modelado para la descripción de los resultados experimentales. Obviamente estos modelos ricos implican muchos parámetros, los asociados con el comportamiento y los relacionados con los derivados fraccionarios. El análisis paramétrico de estos modelos requiere técnicas numéricas eficientemente capaces de simular comportamientos complejos. El método de la Descomposición Propia Generalizada (PGD) es el candidato perfecto para la construcción de este tipo de soluciones paramétricas. Podemos calcular off-line la solución paramétrica para el depósito de suelo, para todos los parámetros del modelo, tan pronto como tales soluciones paramétricas están disponibles, el problema puede ser resuelto en tiempo real, porque no se necesita ningún nuevo cálculo, el solucionador sólo necesita particularizar on-line la solución paramétrica calculada off-line, que aliviará significativamente el procedimiento de solución. En el marco de la PGD, parámetros de los materiales y los diferentes poderes de derivación podrían introducirse como extra-coordenadas en el procedimiento de solución. El cálculo fraccional y el nuevo método de reducción modelo llamado Descomposición Propia Generalizada han sido aplicado en esta tesis tanto al análisis lineal como al análisis no lineal de la respuesta del suelo utilizando un método lineal equivalente. ABSTRACT Studies of earthquakes over the last 50 years and the examination of dynamic soil behavior reveal that soil behavior is highly nonlinear and hysteretic even at small strains. Nonlinear behavior of soils during a seismic event has a predominant role in current site response analysis. One-dimensional seismic ground response analysis are often performed using equivalent-linear procedures, which require few, generally well-known parameters. Nonlinear analyses have the potential to more accurately simulate soil behavior, but their implementation in practice has been limited because of poorly documented and unclear parameter selection, as well as inadequate documentation of the benefits of nonlinear modeling relative to equivalent linear modeling. In soil analysis, soil behaviour is approximated as a Kelvin-Voigt solid with a elastic shear modulus and viscous damping. In linear and nonlinear analysis more complex geometries and more complex rheological models are being considered. The first is being addressed by considering richer parametrizations of the linearized behavior and the second by using multi-mode spring-dashpot elements with eventual fractional damping. The use of fractional calculus is motivated in large part by the fact that fewer parameters are required to achieve accurate approximation of experimental data. Based in Kelvin-Voigt model the viscoelastodynamics is revisited from its most standard formulation to some more advanced description involving frequency-dependent damping (or viscosity), analyzing the effects of considering fractional derivatives for representing such viscous contributions. We will prove that such a choice results in richer models that can accommodate different constraints related to the dissipated power, response amplitude and phase angle. Moreover, the use of fractional derivatives allows to accommodate in parallel, within a generalized Kelvin-Voigt analog, many dashpots that contribute to increase the modeling flexibility for describing experimental findings. Obviously these rich models involve many parameters, the ones associated with the behavior and the ones related to the fractional derivatives. The parametric analysis of all these models require efficient numerical techniques able to simulate complex behaviors. The Proper Generalized Decomposition (PGD) is the perfect candidate for producing such kind of parametric solutions. We can compute off-line the parametric solution for the soil deposit, for all parameter of the model, as soon as such parametric solutions are available, the problem can be solved in real time because no new calculation is needed, the solver only needs particularize on-line the parametric solution calculated off-line, which will alleviate significantly the solution procedure. Within the PGD framework material parameters and the different derivation powers could be introduced as extra-coordinates in the solution procedure. Fractional calculus and the new model reduction method called Proper Generalized Decomposition has been applied in this thesis to the linear analysis and nonlinear soil response analysis using a equivalent linear method.

Dynamic modeling of gene expression data

We describe the time evolution of gene expression levels by using a time translational matrix to predict future expression levels of genes based on their expression levels at some initial time. We deduce the time translational matrix for previously published DNA microarray gene expression data sets by modeling them within a linear framework by using the characteristic modes obtained by singular value decomposition. The resulting time translation matrix provides a measure of the relationships among the modes and governs their time evolution. We show that a truncated matrix linking just a few modes is a good approximation of the full time translation matrix. This finding suggests that the number of essential connections among the genes is small.

Test of a model dynamic system synthesizer.

"Aeronautical Research Laboratory, Contract No. AF 33(616)-2797, Project 7060."