Applying quantile regression for modeling equivalent property damage only crashes to identify accident blackspots

Hot spot identification (HSID) aims to identify potential sites—roadway segments, intersections, crosswalks, interchanges, ramps, etc.—with disproportionately high crash risk relative to similar sites. An inefficient HSID methodology might result in either identifying a safe site as high risk (false positive) or a high risk site as safe (false negative), and consequently lead to the misuse the available public funds, to poor investment decisions, and to inefficient risk management practice. Current HSID methods suffer from issues like underreporting of minor injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes, challenges of accounting for crash severity into the methodology, and selection of a proper safety performance function to model crash data that is often heavily skewed by a preponderance of zeros. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a combination of a PDO equivalency calculation and quantile regression technique to identify hot spots in a transportation network. In particular, issues related to underreporting and crash severity are tackled by incorporating equivalent PDO crashes, whilst the concerns related to the non-count nature of equivalent PDO crashes and the skewness of crash data are addressed by the non-parametric quantile regression technique. The proposed method identifies covariate effects on various quantiles of a population, rather than the population mean like most methods in practice, which more closely corresponds with how black spots are identified in practice. The proposed methodology is illustrated using rural road segment data from Korea and compared against the traditional EB method with negative binomial regression. Application of a quantile regression model on equivalent PDO crashes enables identification of a set of high-risk sites that reflect the true safety costs to the society, simultaneously reduces the influence of under-reported PDO and minor injury crashes, and overcomes the limitation of traditional NB model in dealing with preponderance of zeros problem or right skewed dataset.

Benefit of accident reduction considering the improvement of travel time reliability

Traffic accidents often cause lane closure, and diminish stability of travel time as well as the level of road services. On the other hand, research on the implementation of ITS services aiming at the reduction of traffic accidents has made considerable progress lately. However there has been little discussion on the benefits obtained by traffic accident reduction from the view point of travel time reliability. Therefore, in this research, relationships between traffic accidents and travel time reliability are examined, and the benefit of traffic accident reduction is calculated based on the scheduling model under travel time uncertainties. The results show the significance of traffic accident reduction for the improvement of travel time reliability.

Practice and procedure - Motor Accident Insurance Act 1994 s45 - duty of claimant to cooperate with insurer

In Suncorp Metway Insurance Limited v Brown [2004] QCA 325 the Queensland Court of Appeal considered the extent of the duty of cooperation imposed on a claimant under s45 of the Motor Accident Insurance Act 1994 (Qld). The issue is an important one because it affects virtually all claims made under the Act.

Mandatory offers under the Motor Accident Insurance Act 1994 - with interest please!

In Windon v Edwards [2005] QDC 029 Robin QC DCJ considered the cost consequence of mandatory final offers under the Motor Accident Insurance Act 1994 (Qld)

Unidentified vehicle in multi-vehicle accident - failure to notify Nominal Defendant no bar to proceedings against it

In Kumar v Suncorp Metway Insurance Limited [2004] QSC 381 Douglas J examined s37 of the Motor Accident Insurance Act 1994 (Qld) in the context of an accident involving multiple insurers when a notice of accident had not been given to the Nominal Defendant

Practice and Procedures - Motor Accident Insurance Act 1994 ss 39 and 57

In Bermingham v Priest [2002] QSC 057 jones J considered the position of persons seeking to claim damages where the Motor Accident Insurance Act 1994 applies prior to its amendment by the Motor Accident Insurance Amendment Act 2000, and where proceedings are brought close to expiration of the statutory limitation period.

Motor Accident Insurance Act 1994 - obligation to disclose

In Turpin v Allianz Australia Insurance Ltd (unreported, Supreme Court of Queensland, S5216 of 2001), Mullins J, 17.10.2001) the plaintiff applied for a declaration that the respondent disclose pursuant to s47 of the Motor Accident Insurance Act 1994 copies of three statements referred to in a loss assessor's investigation report as "attached". The issue involved determination of whether the statements must be disclosed under s48(2) even though protected by legal professional privilege. The Court applied the decision of the Queensland Court of Appeal in James v Workcover Queensland.

Personal injury in motor accident in NSW - procedural requirements under Motor Accidents Insurance Act 1988 (NSW)

In Hooper v Robinson [2002] QDC 080 (District Court of Queensland, D 4841 of 2001, McGill DCJ, 19.4.2002) McGill DCJ considered the application of the decision in John Pfeiffer Pty Ltd v Rogerson [2000] 203 CLR 503 to notice requirements such as in s42 of NSW Motor Accident Insurance Act 1988 and concluded such provisions are now substantive.

Motor Accident Insurance Act 1994 - whether vehicle in question a vehicle "for which registration is required"

In Gideona v Nominal Defendant [2005] QCA 261, the Queensland Court of Appeal reconsidered the question of what is the material time for determining whether registration of a motor vehicle is required. The Court declined to follow the decision in Kelly v Alford [1988] 1 Qd R 404; deciding that the material time was the time when the accident occurred.

Motor Accident Insurance Act 1994 s45 - whether obligation to co-operate may authorise order requiring commencement of proceedings by minor prior to expiration of limitation period

In Australian Associated Motor Insurers Ltd v McPaul; Council of the City of Gold Coast v McPaul [2005] QSC 278 the applicant insurer sought an order requiring a claimant who had been injured in a motor vehicle accident some years earlier when he was five years old to commence a proceeding to determine the question of the applicant's liability to him. The applicant's interest in seeking the order was to avoid the prejudice which could follow from further delay, particularly delay until the respondent became obliged to commence proceedings to avoid a limitations bar.

Motor Accident Insurance Act 1994 - reasonable excuse for delay in giving notice under s37

The decisions in Perdis v The Nominal Defendant [2003] QCA 555, Miller v the Nominal Defendant [2003] QCA 558 and Piper v the Nominal Defendant [2003] QCA 557 were handed down contemporaneously by the Queensland Court of Appeal on December 15 2003. They consider important issues as to the construction of key provisions of the Motor Accident Insurance Act 1994 (Qld)

Motor Accident Insurance Act 1994 - compulsory conferences and offers to settle

In Lindsay v Aumaali [2004] QDC 028 the Court considered whether it could, in effect, postpone the requirement for a compulsory conference under s51A of the Moror Accident insurance Act 1994 (Qld) or the exchange of final offers under s51C of the Act until after the start of proceedings.

Limitation of Actions - incorrect date of accident advised to solicitor

The decision of the Queensland Court of Appeal in Cormie v Orchard [2003] QCA 236 involved consideration of whether the respondent solicitor was liable in negligence for failing to commence proceedings within the applicable limitation period in circumstances where the solicitor had relied on the advice as to the date of injury nominated incorrectly but unequivocally by the client.

Angiogenesis in old-aged subjects after ischemic stroke : a cautionary note for investigators

Angiogenesis represents a form of neovascularisation of exceptional importance in numerous pathological conditions including stroke. In this context it is directly related to neuroregeneration which is seen in close proximity. However, numerous experimental data have been drawn from studies that have ignored the age criterion. This is extremely important as angiogenesis is different in young versus old subjects. Extrapolating data obtained from studies performed in young subjects or "in vitro" to old-age patients could lead to inexact conclusions since the dynamics of angiogenesis is age-dependent.The current review covers the key features of brain senescence including morphological and functional changes related to the brain parenchyma, its vascular network and blood flow which could possibly influence the process of angiogenesis. This is followed by a description of post-stroke angiogenesis and its relationship to neuroregeneration and its modulation by vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF 1), the most important factors active in old brain after ischemic injury.

Improving the railway’s understanding of accident causation through an integrated approach to human factors analysis and technical safety data recording

This paper describes a safety data recording and analysis system that has been developed to capture safety occurrences including precursors using high-definition forward-facing video from train cabs and data from other train-borne systems. The paper describes the data processing model and how events detected through data analysis are related to an underlying socio-technical model of accident causation. The integrated approach to safety data recording and analysis insures systemic factors that condition, influence or potentially contribute to an occurrence are captured both for safety occurrences and precursor events, providing a rich tapestry of antecedent causal factors that can significantly improve learning around accident causation. This can ultimately provide benefit to railways through the development of targeted and more effective countermeasures, better risk models and more effective use and prioritization of safety funds. Level crossing occurrences are a key focus in this paper with data analysis scenarios describing causal factors around near-miss occurrences. The paper concludes with a discussion on how the system can also be applied to other types of railway safety occurrences.