Big data analytics and visualization with spatio-temporal correlations for traffic accidents

Big data analytics for traffic accidents is a hot topic and has significant values for a smart and safe traffic in the city. Based on the massive traffic accident data from October 2014 to March 2015 in Xiamen, China, we propose a novel accident occurrences analytics method in both spatial and temporal dimensions to predict when and where an accident with a specific crash type will occur consequentially by whom. Firstly, we analyze and visualize accident occurrences in both temporal and spatial view. Second, we illustrate spatio-temporal visualization results through two case studies in multiple road segments, and the impact of weather on crash types. These findings of accident occurrences analysis and visualization would not only help traffic police department implement instant personnel assignments among simultaneous accidents, but also inform individual drivers about accident-prone sections and the time span which requires their most attention.

New criteria for evaluating methods of identifying hot spots

Identification of hot spots, also known as the sites with promise, black spots, accident-prone locations, or priority investigation locations, is an important and routine activity for improving the overall safety of roadway networks. Extensive literature focuses on methods for hot spot identification (HSID). A subset of this considerable literature is dedicated to conducting performance assessments of various HSID methods. A central issue in comparing HSID methods is the development and selection of quantitative and qualitative performance measures or criteria. The authors contend that currently employed HSID assessment criteria—namely false positives and false negatives—are necessary but not sufficient, and additional criteria are needed to exploit the ordinal nature of site ranking data. With the intent to equip road safety professionals and researchers with more useful tools to compare the performances of various HSID methods and to improve the level of HSID assessments, this paper proposes four quantitative HSID evaluation tests that are, to the authors’ knowledge, new and unique. These tests evaluate different aspects of HSID method performance, including reliability of results, ranking consistency, and false identification consistency and reliability. It is intended that road safety professionals apply these different evaluation tests in addition to existing tests to compare the performances of various HSID methods, and then select the most appropriate HSID method to screen road networks to identify sites that require further analysis. This work demonstrates four new criteria using 3 years of Arizona road section accident data and four commonly applied HSID methods [accident frequency ranking, accident rate ranking, accident reduction potential, and empirical Bayes (EB)]. The EB HSID method reveals itself as the superior method in most of the evaluation tests. In contrast, identifying hot spots using accident rate rankings performs the least well among the tests. The accident frequency and accident reduction potential methods perform similarly, with slight differences explained. The authors believe that the four new evaluation tests offer insight into HSID performance heretofore unavailable to analysts and researchers.

Analysis of marine conflicts

The traffic conflict technique (TCT) is a powerful technique applied in road traffic safety assessment as a surrogate of the traditional accident data analysis. It has subdued the conceptual and implemental weaknesses of the accident statistics. Although this technique has been applied effectively in road traffic, it has not been practised well in marine traffic even though this traffic system has some distinct advantages in terms of having a monitoring system. This monitoring system can provide navigational information as well as other geometric information of the ships for a larger study area over a longer time period. However, for implementing the TCT in the marine traffic system, it should be examined critically to suit the complex nature of the traffic system. This paper examines the suitability of the TCT to be applied to marine traffic and proposes a framework for a follow up comprehensive conflict study.

Organisational culture in airworthiness management programs : developing a measurement model

All civil and private aircraft are required to comply with the airworthiness standards set by their national airworthiness authority and throughout their operational life must be in a condition of safe operation. Aviation accident data shows that over twenty percent of all fatal accidents in aviation are due to airworthiness issues, specifically aircraft mechanical failures. Ultimately it is the responsibility of each registered operator to ensure that their aircraft remain in a condition of safe operation, and this is done through both effective management of airworthiness activities and the effective program governance of safety outcomes. Typically, the projects within these airworthiness management programs are focused on acquiring, modifying and maintaining the aircraft as a capability supporting the business. Program governance provides the structure through which the goals and objectives of airworthiness programs are set along with the means of attaining them. Whilst the principal causes of failures in many programs can be traced to inadequate program governance, many of the failures in large scale projects can have their root causes in the organisational culture and more specifically in the organisational processes related to decision-making. This paper examines the primary theme of project and program based enterprises, and introduces a model for measuring organisational culture in airworthiness management programs using measures drawn from 211 respondents in Australian airline programs. The paper describes the theoretical perspectives applied to modifying an original model to specifically focus it on measuring the organisational culture of programs for managing airworthiness; identifying the most important factors needed to explain the relationship between the measures collected, and providing a description of the nature of these factors. The paper concludes by identifying a model that best describes the organisational culture data collected from seven airworthiness management programs.

Organizational culture in airworthiness management programmes : extending an existing measurement model

All civil and private aircraft are required to comply with the airworthiness standards set by their national airworthiness authority and throughout their operational life must be in a condition of safe operation. Aviation accident data shows that over 20% of all fatal accidents in aviation are due to airworthiness issues, specifically aircraft mechanical failures. Ultimately it is the responsibility of each registered operator to ensure that their aircraft remain in a condition of safe operation, and this is done through both effective management of airworthiness activities and the effective programme governance of safety outcomes. Typically, the projects within these airworthiness management programmes are focused on acquiring, modifying and maintaining the aircraft as a capability supporting the business. Programme governance provides the structure through which the goals and objectives of airworthiness programmes are set along with the means of attaining them. Whilst the principal causes of failures in many programmes can be traced to inadequate programme governance, many of the failures in large-scale projects can have their root causes in the organizational culture and more specifically in the organizational processes related to decision-making. This paper examines the primary theme of project and programme-based enterprises, and introduces a model for measuring organizational culture in airworthiness management programmes using measures drawn from 211 respondents in Australian airline programmes. The paper describes the theoretical perspectives applied to modifying an original model to specifically focus it on measuring the organizational culture of programmes for managing airworthiness; identifying the most important factors needed to explain the relationship between the measures collected, and providing a description of the nature of these factors. The paper concludes by identifying a model that best describes the organizational culture data collected from seven airworthiness management programmes.

Evaluation of the Red Light Camera Program and the Owner Onus Legislation

Red light cameras were introduced in Victoria in August 1983, with the intention of reducing the number of accidents that result from motorists disobeying red traffic signals at signalised intersections. Accident data from 46 treated and 46 control sites from 1981 to 1986 were analysed. The analysis indicated that red light camera use resulted in a reduction in the incidence of right angle accidents, and in the number of accident casualties. Legislation was introduced in March 1986 to place the onus for red light camera offences onto the vehicle owner. This legislation was intended to improve Police efficiency and therefore increase the number of red light cameras in operation. Data supplied by the Police indicated that these aims have beneficial road safety effects.

The Red Light Camera Evaluation - Interim Report - July 1985

Red light cameras were introduced in August 1983 to deter run-the-red offences and therefore to reduce the incidence of right-angle accidents at signalised intersections in Melbourne. This report was prepared after two years of operation of the program. It provides a detailed account of the technical aspects of the program, but does not provide any detailed, evaluative analyses of accident data.

Análisis de accidente grave de un establecimiento afectado por la directiva 2012/18/UE.

[Es]Los establecimientos industriales a los que la directiva 2012/18/UE es de aplicación deben establecer las acciones necesarias para controlar y planificar los riesgos inherentes a los accidentes graves que pueden ser causados por sustancias peligrosas. Esta directiva obliga a los establecimientos afectados clasificados como nivel superior a elaborar un informe de seguridad en el que se realicen análisis de riesgos de los posibles accidentes graves con el fin de calcular los posibles daños que pudieran producirse. Para ello se siguen una serie de metodologías que incluyen desde el análisis de las posibles hipótesis de accidente grave hasta el cálculo de sus consecuencias para personas, bienes materiales y medio ambiente. El informe técnico trata de analizar las consecuencias de un accidente real provocado por una nube tóxica de dióxido de nitrógeno (NO2) y se comparan sus resultados con los datos reales del accidente. Asimismo se utilizan una serie de supuestos para analizar las consecuencias de un escenario de riesgo en la misma instalación que debiera estar incluido en el informe de seguridad.

Myopia, spectacle wear, and risk of bicycle accidents among rural Chinese secondary school students: the Xichang Pediatric Refractive Error Study report no. 7.

OBJECTIVE: To study the effect of myopia and spectacle wear on bicycle-related injuries in rural Chinese students. Myopia is common among Chinese students but few studies have examined its effect on daily activities. METHODS: Data on visual acuity, refractive error, current spectacle wear, and history of bicycle use and accidents during the past 3 years were sought from 1891 students undergoing eye examinations in rural Guangdong province. RESULTS: Refractive and accident data were available for 1539 participants (81.3%), among whom the mean age was 14.6 years, 52.5% were girls, 26.8% wore glasses, and 12.9% had myopia of less than -4 diopters in both eyes. More than 90% relied on bicycles to get to school daily. A total of 2931 accidents were reported by 423 participants, with 68 requiring medical attention. Male sex (odds ratio, 1.55; P < .001) and spectacle wear (odds ratio, 1.38; P = .04) were associated with a higher risk of accident, but habitual visual acuity and myopia were unassociated with the crash risk, after adjusting for age, sex, time spent riding, and risky riding behaviors. CONCLUSION: These results may be consistent with data on motor vehicle accidents implicating peripheral vision (potentially compromised by spectacle wear) more strongly than central visual acuity in mediating crash risk.

Assessment of the impact speed and angle conditions for the EN1317 barrier tests

Roadside safety barriers designs are tested with passenger cars in Europe using standard EN1317 in which the impact angle for normal, high and very high containment level tests is 20°. In comparison to EN1317, the US standard MASH has higher impact angles for cars and pickups (25°) and different vehicle masses. Studies in Europe (RISER) and the US have shown values for the 90th percentile impact angle of 30°–34°. Thus, the limited evidence available suggests that the 20° angle applied in EN 1317 may be too low.
The first goal of this paper is to use the US NCHRP database (Project NCHRP 17–22) to assess the distribution of impact angle and collision speed in recent ROR accidents. Second, based on the findings of the statistical analysis and on analysis of impact angles and speeds in the literature, an LS-DYNA finite element analysis was carried out to evaluate the normal containment level of concrete barriers in non-standard collisions. The FE model was validated against a crash test of a portable concrete barrier carried out at the UK Transport Research Laboratory (TRL).
The accident data analysis for run-off road accidents indicates that a substantial proportion of accidents have an impact angle in excess of 20°. The baseline LS-DYNA model showed good comparison with experimental acceleration severity index (ASI) data and the parametric analysis indicates a very significant influence of impact angle on ASI. Accordingly, a review of European run-off road accidents and the configuration of EN 1317 should be performed.

Power Law Behavior and Self-similarity in Modern Industrial Accidents

Advances in technology have produced more and more intricate industrial systems, such as nuclear power plants, chemical centers and petroleum platforms. Such complex plants exhibit multiple interactions among smaller units and human operators, rising potentially disastrous failure, which can propagate across subsystem boundaries. This paper analyzes industrial accident data-series in the perspective of statistical physics and dynamical systems. Global data is collected from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the time period from year 1903 up to 2012. The statistical distributions of the number of fatalities caused by industrial accidents reveal Power Law (PL) behavior. We analyze the evolution of the PL parameters over time and observe a remarkable increment in the PL exponent during the last years. PL behavior allows prediction by extrapolation over a wide range of scales. In a complementary line of thought, we compare the data using appropriate indices and use different visualization techniques to correlate and to extract relationships among industrial accident events. This study contributes to better understand the complexity of modern industrial accidents and their ruling principles.

Medidas de intervención para promoción de conductas saludables y prevención de riesgos laborales relacionados con accidentalidad y enfermedad laboral en trabajadores de minas de Carbón

Colombia en su legislación normatiza el sector de la minería de carbón, sin embargo se considera que las estrategias no han sido suficientes para la identificación, prevención y control de la accidentalidad y enfermedad laboral. Durante el año 2013 el índice de fatalidad fue de 1,59. Estadísticas del año 2004 evidencian que las neumoconiosis fueron las mayores causas de invalidez de origen profesional. Objetivo: Categorizar actividades de intervención en promoción y prevención de accidentalidad y enfermedad laboral en trabajadores de la minería de carbón. Metodología: Se realizó una revisión de literatura sobre minería de carbón y salud la cual fue obtenida de las bases de datos PUBMED, Sciendirect, VHL, SINAB por literatura publicada sin límites de año, en idioma inglés, español o portugués. Para la búsqueda se utilizaron términos en lenguaje controlado (términos MESH), revisión por pares de títulos y resúmenes. Las publicaciones fueron seleccionadas para revisión de texto completo bajo criterios de inclusión y exclusión. Los códigos contemplados para esta revisión fueron: a) país donde la intervención se llevó a cabo, b) salud ocupacional, c) prevención de accidentalidad, d) programas de promoción, e) tecnologías, f) resultados obtenidos. Resultados: Del total de 2500 artículos seleccionados por los autores principales se realizó la revisión de los primeros 300 artículos, 32 hacen referencia al tema de salud ocupacional y minería de carbón, 10 contienen intervenciones consideradas de relevancia para esta revisión bibliográfica. Se presentan intervenciones estadísticamente significativas (p<0.05) y que han demostrado ser de impacto positivo en la minería de carbón en promoción y prevención de accidentalidad y enfermedad ocupacional. Conclusiones: Se identificaron las siguientes cuatro tipos de intervención: 1) las de carácter educativo que hacen referencia a las capacitaciones participativas, el entrenamiento por medio de “degraded image”, la realización de gestión de autocontrol y retroalimentación para el uso de elementos de protección personal (EPP), la aplicación del Modelo de Proceso Paralelo Extendido; 2) intervenciones preventivas como la medición de alcoholimetría antes del turno, la presencia de personal de enfermería en minas de carbón y el reconocimiento de los predictores de la enfermedad para optimizar la prevención primaria; 3)intervenciones de vigilancia como la promovida en la metodología Estadísticas Europeas de Accidentes de Trabajo (EEAT) para la investigación de los accidentes de trabajo, la aplicación de las recomendaciones de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) para la detección de la neumoconiosis y 4) De carácter tecnológico consistente en la intervención de tareas a partir de los resultados de la aplicación del software desarrollado por el Instituto Nacional para la Seguridad y Salud Ocupacional (NIOSH). Estas intervenciones han demostrado ser eficaces en la promoción y prevención de accidentalidad y enfermedad ocupacional por lo cual se recomienda su aplicación en Colombia posterior al análisis de costo-efectividad.

The influence of economic incentives linked to road safety indicators on accidents: The case of toll concessions in Spain

The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether the incentives incorporated in toll highway concession contracts in order to encourage private operators to adopt measures to reduce accidents are actually effective at improving safety. To this end, we implemented negative binomial regression models using information about highway characteristics and accident data from toll highway concessions in Spain from 2007 to 2009. Our results show that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not managed by the contractor, such as the annual average daily traffic (AADT), the percentage of heavy vehicles on the highway, number of lanes, number of intersections and average speed; the implementation of these incentives has a positive influence on the reduction of accidents and injuries. Consequently, this measure seems to be an effective way of improving safety performance in road networks.

Modelos Estadísticos Dinámicos para Análisis de Evolución de Tasas de Accidentes: Metodología y Herramientas Computacionales

Los accidentes del tráfico son un fenómeno social muy relevantes y una de las principales causas de mortalidad en los países desarrollados. Para entender este fenómeno complejo se aplican modelos econométricos sofisticados tanto en la literatura académica como por las administraciones públicas. Esta tesis está dedicada al análisis de modelos macroscópicos para los accidentes del tráfico en España. El objetivo de esta tesis se puede dividir en dos bloques: a. Obtener una mejor comprensión del fenómeno de accidentes de trafico mediante la aplicación y comparación de dos modelos macroscópicos utilizados frecuentemente en este área: DRAG y UCM, con la aplicación a los accidentes con implicación de furgonetas en España durante el período 2000-2009. Los análisis se llevaron a cabo con enfoque frecuencista y mediante los programas TRIO, SAS y TRAMO/SEATS. b. La aplicación de modelos y la selección de las variables más relevantes, son temas actuales de investigación y en esta tesis se ha desarrollado y aplicado una metodología que pretende mejorar, mediante herramientas teóricas y prácticas, el entendimiento de selección y comparación de los modelos macroscópicos. Se han desarrollado metodologías tanto para selección como para comparación de modelos. La metodología de selección de modelos se ha aplicado a los accidentes mortales ocurridos en la red viaria en el período 2000-2011, y la propuesta metodológica de comparación de modelos macroscópicos se ha aplicado a la frecuencia y la severidad de los accidentes con implicación de furgonetas en el período 2000-2009. Como resultado de los desarrollos anteriores se resaltan las siguientes contribuciones: a. Profundización de los modelos a través de interpretación de las variables respuesta y poder de predicción de los modelos. El conocimiento sobre el comportamiento de los accidentes con implicación de furgonetas se ha ampliado en este proceso. bl. Desarrollo de una metodología para selección de variables relevantes para la explicación de la ocurrencia de accidentes de tráfico. Teniendo en cuenta los resultados de a) la propuesta metodológica se basa en los modelos DRAG, cuyos parámetros se han estimado con enfoque bayesiano y se han aplicado a los datos de accidentes mortales entre los años 2000-2011 en España. Esta metodología novedosa y original se ha comparado con modelos de regresión dinámica (DR), que son los modelos más comunes para el trabajo con procesos estocásticos. Los resultados son comparables, y con la nueva propuesta se realiza una aportación metodológica que optimiza el proceso de selección de modelos, con escaso coste computacional. b2. En la tesis se ha diseñado una metodología de comparación teórica entre los modelos competidores mediante la aplicación conjunta de simulación Monte Cario, diseño de experimentos y análisis de la varianza ANOVA. Los modelos competidores tienen diferentes estructuras, que afectan a la estimación de efectos de las variables explicativas. Teniendo en cuenta el estudio desarrollado en bl) este desarrollo tiene el propósito de determinar como interpretar la componente de tendencia estocástica que un modelo UCM modela explícitamente, a través de un modelo DRAG, que no tiene un método específico para modelar este elemento. Los resultados de este estudio son importantes para ver si la serie necesita ser diferenciada antes de modelar. b3. Se han desarrollado nuevos algoritmos para realizar los ejercicios metodológicos, implementados en diferentes programas como R, WinBUGS, y MATLAB. El cumplimiento de los objetivos de la tesis a través de los desarrollos antes enunciados se remarcan en las siguientes conclusiones: 1. El fenómeno de accidentes del tráfico se ha analizado mediante dos modelos macroscópicos. Los efectos de los factores de influencia son diferentes dependiendo de la metodología aplicada. Los resultados de predicción son similares aunque con ligera superioridad de la metodología DRAG. 2. La metodología para selección de variables y modelos proporciona resultados prácticos en cuanto a la explicación de los accidentes de tráfico. La predicción y la interpretación también se han mejorado mediante esta nueva metodología. 3. Se ha implementado una metodología para profundizar en el conocimiento de la relación entre las estimaciones de los efectos de dos modelos competidores como DRAG y UCM. Un aspecto muy importante en este tema es la interpretación de la tendencia mediante dos modelos diferentes de la que se ha obtenido información muy útil para los investigadores en el campo del modelado. Los resultados han proporcionado una ampliación satisfactoria del conocimiento en torno al proceso de modelado y comprensión de los accidentes con implicación de furgonetas y accidentes mortales totales en España. ABSTRACT Road accidents are a very relevant social phenomenon and one of the main causes of death in industrialized countries. Sophisticated econometric models are applied in academic work and by the administrations for a better understanding of this very complex phenomenon. This thesis is thus devoted to the analysis of macro models for road accidents with application to the Spanish case. The objectives of the thesis may be divided in two blocks: a. To achieve a better understanding of the road accident phenomenon by means of the application and comparison of two of the most frequently used macro modelings: DRAG (demand for road use, accidents and their gravity) and UCM (unobserved components model); the application was made to van involved accident data in Spain in the period 2000-2009. The analysis has been carried out within the frequentist framework and using available state of the art software, TRIO, SAS and TRAMO/SEATS. b. Concern on the application of the models and on the relevant input variables to be included in the model has driven the research to try to improve, by theoretical and practical means, the understanding on methodological choice and model selection procedures. The theoretical developments have been applied to fatal accidents during the period 2000-2011 and van-involved road accidents in 2000-2009. This has resulted in the following contributions: a. Insight on the models has been gained through interpretation of the effect of the input variables on the response and prediction accuracy of both models. The behavior of van-involved road accidents has been explained during this process. b1. Development of an input variable selection procedure, which is crucial for an efficient choice of the inputs. Following the results of a) the procedure uses the DRAG-like model. The estimation is carried out within the Bayesian framework. The procedure has been applied for the total road accident data in Spain in the period 2000-2011. The results of the model selection procedure are compared and validated through a dynamic regression model given that the original data has a stochastic trend. b2. A methodology for theoretical comparison between the two models through Monte Carlo simulation, computer experiment design and ANOVA. The models have a different structure and this affects the estimation of the effects of the input variables. The comparison is thus carried out in terms of the effect of the input variables on the response, which is in general different, and should be related. Considering the results of the study carried out in b1) this study tries to find out how a stochastic time trend will be captured in DRAG model, since there is no specific trend component in DRAG. Given the results of b1) the findings of this study are crucial in order to see if the estimation of data with stochastic component through DRAG will be valid or whether the data need a certain adjustment (typically differencing) prior to the estimation. The model comparison methodology was applied to the UCM and DRAG models, considering that, as mentioned above, the UCM has a specific trend term while DRAG does not. b3. New algorithms were developed for carrying out the methodological exercises. For this purpose different softwares, R, WinBUGs and MATLAB were used. These objectives and contributions have been resulted in the following findings: 1. The road accident phenomenon has been analyzed by means of two macro models: The effects of the influential input variables may be estimated through the models, but it has been observed that the estimates vary from one model to the other, although prediction accuracy is similar, with a slight superiority of the DRAG methodology. 2. The variable selection methodology provides very practical results, as far as the explanation of road accidents is concerned. Prediction accuracy and interpretability have been improved by means of a more efficient input variable and model selection procedure. 3. Insight has been gained on the relationship between the estimates of the effects using the two models. A very relevant issue here is the role of trend in both models, relevant recommendations for the analyst have resulted from here. The results have provided a very satisfactory insight into both modeling aspects and the understanding of both van-involved and total fatal accidents behavior in Spain.

Gender differences in factors predicting unsafe crossing decisions in adult pedestrians across the lifespan: a simulation study

Adult pedestrian accident data has demonstrated that the risk of being killed or seriously injured varies with age and gender. A range of factors affecting road crossing choices of 218 adults aged 17-90+ were examined in a simulation study using filmed real traffic. With increasing age, women were shown to make more unsafe crossing decisions, to leave small safety margins and to become poorer at estimating their walking speed. However, the age effects on all of these were ameliorated by driving experience. Men differed from women in that age was not a major factor in predicting unsafe crossing decisions. Rather, reduced mobility was the key factor, leading them to make more unsafe crossings and delay longer in leaving the kerb. For men, driving experience did not predict unsafe road crossing decisions. Although male drivers were more likely to look both ways before crossing than male non-drivers, the impact of being a driver had a negative effect in terms of smaller safety margins and delay in leaving the kerb. The implications of the different predictor variables for men and women for unsafe road crossing are discussed and possible reasons for the differences explored.