Picking the Right Budget Constraint for Scotland

This position paper considers the devolution of further fiscal powers to the Scottish Parliament in the context of the objectives and remit of the Smith Commission. The argument builds on our discussion of fiscal decentralization made in our previous published work on this topic. We ask what sort of budget constraint the Scottish Parliament should operate with. A soft budget constraint (SBC) allows the Scottish Parliament to spend without having to consider all of the tax and, therefore, political consequences, of that spending, which is effectively the position at the moment. The incentives to promote economic growth through fiscal policy – on both the tax and spending sides are weak to non-existent. This is what the Scotland Act, 1998, and the continuing use of the Barnett block grant, gave Scotland. Now other budget constraints are being discussed – those of the Calman Commission (2009) and the Scotland Act (2012), as well as the ones offered in 2014 by the various political parties – Scottish Conservatives, Scottish Greens, Scottish Labour, the Scottish Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Government. There is also the budget constraint designed by the Holtham Commission (2010) for Wales that could just as well be used in Scotland. We examine to what extent these offer the hard budget constraint (HBC) that would bring tax policy firmly into the realm of Scottish politics, asking the Scottish electorate and Parliament to consider the costs to them of increasing spending in terms of higher taxes; or the benefits to them of using public spending to grow the tax base and own-sourced taxes? The hardest budget constraint of all is offered by independence but, as is now known, a clear majority of those who voted in the referendum did not vote for this form of budget constraint. Rather they voted for a significant further devolution of fiscal powers while remaining within a political and monetary union with the rest of the UK, with the risk pooling and revenue sharing that this implies. It is not surprising therefore that none of the budget constraints on offer, apart from the SNP’s, come close to the HBC of independence. However, the almost 25% fall in the price of oil since the referendum, a resource stream so central to the SNP’s economic policy making, underscores why there is a need for a trade off between a HBC and risk pooling and revenue sharing. Ranked according to the desirable characteristic of offering something approaching a HBC the least desirable are those of the Calman Commission, the Scotland Act, 2012, and Scottish Labour. In all of these the ‘elasticity’ of the block grant in the face of failure to grow the Scottish tax base is either not defined or is very elastic – meaning that the risk of failure is shuffled off to taxpayers outside of Scotland. The degree of HBC in the Scottish Conservative, Scottish Greens and Scottish Liberal Democrats proposals are much more desirable from an economic growth point of view, the latter even embracing the HBC proposed by the Holtham Commission that combines serious tax policy with welfare support in the long-run. We judge that the budget constraint in the SNP’s proposals is too hard as it does not allow for continuation of the ‘welfare union’ in the UK. We also consider that in the case of a generalized UK economic slow requiring a fiscal stimulus that the Scottish Parliament be allowed increased borrowing to be repaid in the next economic upturn.

Mortality counts and rates for injuries in Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland, England, Scotland and Wales

Number of deaths and age-standardised death rates by type of injury for the following regions and year of occurrence:Republic of Ireland 1982, 1983, 1995-2004Northern Ireland 1982, 1983, 1995-2002England 1996-2003Scotland 1982, 1983, 1995-2004Wales 1996-2003

Hospital admission counts and rates for injuries in Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland, England, Scotland and Wales

Number of hospital discharges and age-standardised discharge rates for emergency hospital admissions for injury by sex and type of injury for the following regions and year:Republic of Ireland 2006Northern Ireland 2006England 2006/07Scotland 2006/07Wales 2006 Numbers and rates are based on official hospital statistics from each region. All regions use International Classification of Disease (ICD) version 10 for hospital discharges in these years. Only emergency inpatient hospital spells with an ICD 10 code in the range S000-T739, T750-T759, T780-T789 (in any diagnostic position) and an ICD10 external cause code in the range V01-Y36 (in any diagnostic position) were included. A hospital spell is an unbroken period of time that a person spends as an inpatient in a hospital. The person may change consultant and/or specialty during a spell but is counted only once. See http://www.injuryobservatory.net/analysis-of-inpatient-admissions-data-f... for more details.

Continuity of Supply of the Home Oxygen Service in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland (PDF 96 KB)

Arrangements to support continuity of oxygen supply to patients using the NHS home oxygen service in the four countries within the United Kingdom

Involvement of Parachlamydia in bovine abortions in Scotland.

Bovine abortion represents a major animal welfare issue and a cause of substantial economic loss yet the rate of successful diagnosis remains low. Chlamydia-related organisms including Parachlamydia have recently emerged as putative cattle abortifacients. Placental tissue samples and fetal lung from bovine abortion submissions across Scotland in Spring 2011 were investigated by histopathology for the presence of suspect Chlamydia-related organisms. Evidence of Chlamydia-related organisms was observed in 21/113 (18.6%) placenta samples. Thirteen of the suspect cases and 18 histopathology negative cases were analysed by molecular and immunohistochemical methods. All samples were PCR positive for Parachlamydia but sequencing revealed high homology between identified environmental 16S sequences in all but three cases. Parachlamydial antigen was detected in 10/31 placental samples (32.2%) with pathology consistent with chlamydial infection. This work supports the need for further surveillance investigations and experimental studies to determine the role of Parachlamydia in bovine abortion.

A Survey of NHS Services for Opiate Dependents in Scotland

The aim of this study was to investigate the range of opiates available within the Scottish NHS for patients with opiate dependancy and to assess the process underlying clinical decision-making. Clinicians, representitives of drug action teams and NHS personnel were apporached and semi-structured phone conversations were the primary means to elicit information. Whilst methadone is almost universally prescribed in Scotland, buprenorphine, dihydrocodeine (not currently licensed for opiate dependance management), lofexidine and naltrexone are also used. Alternative therapies are variably used.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

The Road to Recovery: A New Approach to Tackling Scotland's Drug Problem

The Scottish National Drugs Strategy requires the 22 regional Drug Action Teams to prepare and submit to the Scottish Executive annual action plans for tackling drug misuse in their areas. These plans should address national and local priorities, including their contribution to the achievement of national targets. These comprise three parts: Part A provides an overview of the DAT structures and working; Part B provides detailed information on current local services and Part C reports plans for 2003/04.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Effective services for substance misuse & homelessness in Scotland: The recommendations of the Advisory Group on Homelessness and Substance Misuse

The Group makes 12 recommendations for actions covering the two key themes of strategic and organisational responses, and service design and delivery. It calls for: * A joint strategic response at national level to be developed * A joint strategic response at a local level to be developed (responsibility sitting with Alcohol and Drug Partnerships (ADPs) * Recognition of the importance of investing to save over the long term * A joint operational response at local level to be developed * More flexible approaches in rural and island areas * Service development and commissioning to be based on evidence of good practice * An individual’s priorities to be the starting point for the design and delivery of services and support * Ongoing evaluation of services in this field to be managed through the ADP planning and monitoring processes * Targeted service user participation and involvement to be supported * Training across homelessness, housing, alcohol and drug fields to be supported in statutory and commissioned services * The stigmatisation of these populations to be addressed at a local and national level.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Low birthweight, preterm, and small for gestational age babies in Scotland, 1981-1984.

The aim was to examine the effect of maternal age, gravidity, marital status, previous perinatal deaths, and parental social class on babies born low birthweight, preterm, and small for gestational age. DESIGN--The study used data on discharge summaries from all maternity hospitals in Scotland. SETTING--The study was based on all singleton deliveries in Scotland. PARTICIPANTS--The analysis involved information on 259,462 singleton babies born during the four years 1981-84 in Scotland. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--Previous perinatal death was found to be the strongest predictor for both preterm and low birthweight. Single mothers were at particularly high risk of having a small for gestational age baby and those who were previously married of having a preterm baby. Women aged less than 20 years old, those over 34 years old, nulligravidae, and those of parity 3 or more were also at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. Mothers and fathers in manual social classes and those who could not be assigned a social class on the basis of their occupation were at increased risk for all three adverse outcomes studied. The babies of parents who were in manual occupations were twice as likely as those of parents in non-manual occupations to be small for gestational age and almost twice as likely to be low birthweight. CONCLUSIONS--Mother's social class is a risk factor for adverse pregnancy outcome independent of maternal age, parity, and adverse reproductive history, and also independent of father's social class. Information on both parents' occupations should be collected in maternity discharge systems.

The Coverage of the European independence movements from a Canadian perspective: Comparisons of the francophone online press in Quebec with the English Canadian press on the independence movements in Scotland and Catalonia

This research paper provides the basis of a future doctoral thesison the construction of foreign news. We aim to highlight similarities and differences in the online news coverage of the nationalist movments in Scotland and Catalonia in the Canadian Anglophone and Francophone press. Through a qualitative and quantitative content analysis of The Montreal Gazette, The National Post, The Globe and Mail, Le Devoir and La Presse, we attempt to show the frames used in the coverage of the political developments in both “stateless regions” from January 2011 to September 2014, when a referendum on the constitutional status of Scotland has beenagreed on. In parallel to the analysis of daily online newspapers, we will use semi-structured interviews of journalists from each news organization to obtain more in-depth knowledge of the factors influencing the construction of news. Lastly, we want to find out to the extent to which the coverage on the nationalist movements in Scotland and Catalonia serve to revive the debate on the independence question of Québec

Maintaining Children’s Finnish Language Skills in an English Language Setting. A Study of Scottish-Finnish Families Living in Scotland

Tutkielmassa käsitellään kaksikielistä lastenkasvatusta ja siinä käytettäviä kasvatus-strategioita, erityisesti ns. OPOL-strategiaa, eli yksi henkilö – yksi kieli -strategiaa (one person – one language). Tarkoituksena oli selvittää, millä tavoin kaksikielisen perheen vanhemmat voivat tukea vähemmistökielen oppimista sellaisessa ympäristössä, jossa kielen oppimista ei tueta kodin ulkopuolella. Tutkielman alussa määrittelen keskeiset termit. Useita aiheeseen liittyviä termejä määritellään yleiskielessä eri tavoin jo termistä kaksikielisyys lähtien, joten termien rajaaminen tämän työn tarkoituksen mukaan oli tarpeen. Määrittelen myös tekstissä esiintyvät kaksikielisyyden eri tyypit ja taustat, kuten myös eri strategiat, joita kaksikielisessä kasvatuksessa voidaan käyttää. Tämän jälkeen esittelen aikaisempia kaksikielisyystutkimuksia sekä käsittelen OPOL-strategiaan liittyviä käytännön ongelmia, sekä näiden ongelmien mahdollisia ratkaisuja. Lopuksi käsittelen tutkimuksen empiiristä osiota, joka koostui sähköisestä kyselylomakkeesta sekä haastatteluista. Tutkimuksen kohderyhmä koostui Skotlannissa asuvista skotlantilais-suomalaisista perheistä, jotka pyrkivät kasvattamaan lapsistaan kaksikielisiä. Tutkimus tehtiin kahdessa osassa: ensimmäisen osan kyselylomakkeeseen vastasi 17 eri puolilla Skotlantia asuvaa suomenkielistä vanhempaa, ja toisessa osassa haastateltiin 10:tä Edinburghin ja Glasgow’n alueilla asuvaa kaksikielistä (suomi-englanti) perhettä. Molemmissa osioissa keskityttiin siihen, millä tavoin perheet tukevat lasten suomen kielen taitoa ja miten suomenkielistä syötettä yritetään lisätä. Tutkimuksen tuloksista käy ilmi, että Skotlannissa asuvat suomenkieliset vanhemmat ovat hyvin motivoituneita tukemaan lastensa kielellistä kehitystä eri tavoin, mm. lukemalla kirjoja, katsomalla elokuvia ja käymällä Suomi-koulussa. Suurin osa perheistä myös käy Suomessa säännöllisesti, mikä näyttäisikin olevan yksi keskeisimmistä kaksikielisyyttä tukevista tekijöistä. Eri perheiden lapset olivat saavuttaneet eri tasoja suomen kielessä, mikä viittaa siihen, ettei lapsen kielitaito ole seurausta ainoastaan OPOL-strategian tarkasta seuraamisesta, vaan siihen vaikuttavat myös monet muut tekijät.

Improving oral healthcare in Scotland with special reference to sustainability and caries prevention

Brett Duane Improving oral healthcare in Scotland with special reference to sustainability and caries prevention University of Turku, Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Dentistry, Community Dentistry, Finnish Doctoral Program in Oral Sciences (FINDOS-Turku), Turku, Finland Annales Universitatis Turkuensis, Sarja- Ser. D, Medica-Odontologica. Painosalama Oy, Turku, Finland, 2015. Dentistry must provide sustainable, evidence-based, and prevention-focused care. In Scotland oral health prevention is delivered through the Childsmile programme, with an increasing use of high concentration fluoride toothpaste (HCFT). Compared with other countries there is little knowledge of xylitol prevention. The UK government has set strict carbon emission limits with which all national health services (NHS) must comply. The purpose of these studies was firstly to describe the Scottish national oral health prevention programme Childsmile (CS), to determine if the additional maternal use of xylitol (CS+X) was more effective at affecting the early colonisation of mutans streptococci (MS) than this programme alone; secondly to analyse trends in the prescribing and management of HCFT by dentists; and thirdly to analyse data from a dental service in order to improve its sustainability. In all, 182 mother/child pairs were selected on the basis of high maternal MS levels. Motherswere randomly allocated to a CS or CS+X group, with both groups receiving Childsmile. Theintervention group consumed xylitol three times a day, from when the child was 3 months until 24 months. Children were examined at age two to assess MS levels. In order to understand patterns of HCFT prescribing, a retrospective secondary data analysis of routine prescribing data for the years 2006-2012 was performed. To understand the sustainability of dental services, carbon accounting combined a top-down approach and a process analysis approach, followed by the use of Pollard’s decision model (used in other healthcare areas) to analyse and support sustainable service reconfiguration. Of the CS children, 17% were colonised with MS, compared with 5% of the CS+X group. This difference was not statistically significant (P=0.1744). The cost of HCFT prescribing increased fourteen-fold over five years, with 4% of dentists prescribing 70% of the total product. Travel (45%), procurement (36%) and building energy (18%) all contributed to the 1800 tonnes of carbon emissions produced by the service, around 4% of total NHS emissions. Using the analytical model, clinic utilisation rates improved by 56% and patient travel halved significantly reducing carbon emissions. It can be concluded that the Childsmile programme was effective in reducing the risk for MS transmission. HCFT is increasing in Scotland and needs to be managed. Dentistry has similar carbon emissions proportionally as the overall NHS, and the use of an analytic tool can be useful in helping identify these emissions. Key words: Sustainability, carbon emissions, xylitol, mutans streptococci, fluoride toothpaste, caries prevention.