PHE-CRCE-010: Estimating Local Mortality Burdens associated with Particulate Air Pollution

The increase in mortality risk associated with long-term exposure to particulate air pollution is one of the most important, and best-characterised, effects of air pollution on health. This report presents estimates of the size of this effect on mortality in local authority areas in the UK, building upon the attributable fractions reported as an indicator in the public health outcomes framework for England. It discusses the concepts and assumptions underlying these calculations and gives information on how such estimates can be made. The estimates are expected to be useful to health and wellbeing boards when assessing local public health priorities, as well as to others working in the field of air quality and public health. The estimates of mortality burden are based on modelled annual average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in each local authority area originating from human activities. Local data on the adult population and adult mortality rates is also used. Central estimates of the fraction of mortality attributable to long-term exposure to current levels of anthropogenic (human-made) particulate air pollution range from around 2.5% in some local authorities in rural areas of Scotland and Northern Ireland and between 3 and 5% in Wales, to over 8% in some London boroughs. Because of uncertainty in the increase in mortality risk associated with ambient PM2.5, the actual burdens associated with these modelled concentrations could range from approximately one-sixth to about double these figures. Thus, current levels of particulate air pollution have a considerable impact on public health. Measures to reduce levels of particulate air pollution, or to reduce exposure of the population to such pollution, are regarded as an important public health initiative.

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment.

BACKGROUND: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. METHODS: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. FINDINGS: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. INTERPRETATION: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health.

Resting heart rate and incident heart failure and cardiovascular mortality in older adults: role of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction: the PROSPER study.

AIMS: Resting heart rate is a promising modifiable cardiovascular risk marker in older adults, but the mechanisms linking heart rate to cardiovascular disease are not fully understood. We aimed to assess the association between resting heart rate and incident heart failure (HF) and cardiovascular mortality, and to examine whether these associations might be attributable to systemic inflammation and endothelial dysfunction. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 4084 older adults aged 70-82 years with known cardiovascular risk factors or previous cardiovascular disease, without pre-existing HF or beta-blockers in the PROSPER study. Over a 3.2-year follow-up period, we examined incident HF hospitalization and cardiovascular mortality according to resting heart rate, along with C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), and von Willebrand factor (vWf). Mean heart rate was 67 b.p.m. for men and 70 b.p.m. for women. CRP, IL-6, tPA, and vWf levels were all positively correlated with heart rate. After multivariate adjustment, heart rate was associated with HF hospitalization [hazard ratio (HR) 1.78 for highest vs. lowest distribution third, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21-2.63, P= 0.003] and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.74, 95% CI 1.23-2.47, P= 0.002). Further adjustment for both IL-6 and vWf levels decreased HR to 1.60 (95% CI 1.08-2.38, P= 0.020) for HF and to 1.50 (95% CI 1.04-2.15, P= 0.028) for cardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSION: Increased heart rate is associated with increased systemic inflammation and endothelial dysfunction. These factors are likely to contribute to, but do not fully explain, the risk of HF and cardiovascular death associated with increased heart rate in older age.

Measuring the child mortality impact of official aid for fighting infectious diseases, 2000-2010

Aid for fighting infectious and parasitic diseases has had a statistically significant role in the under-five mortality reduction in the last decade. Point estimates indicate a country average reduction of 1.4 deaths per thousand under fives live-born attributable to aid at its average level in 2000-2010. The effect would be an average drop of 3.3 in the under-five mortality rate at the aid levels of 2010. By components, a dollar per capita spent in fighting malaria has caused the largest average impact, statistically higher than a dollar per capita spent in STD/HIV control. We do not find statistically significant effects of other infectious disease aid, including aid for the control of tuberculosis.

Effects of age, birth cohort and period of death on Swiss cancer mortality, 1951-1984.

Swiss death certification data over the period 1951-1984 for total cancer mortality and 30 major cancer sites in the population aged 25 to 74 years were analysed using a log-linear Poisson model with arbitrary constraints on the parameters to isolate the effects of birth cohort, calendar period of death and age. The overall pattern of total cancer mortality in males was stable for period values and showed some moderate decreases in cohort values restricted to the generations born after 1930. Cancer mortality trends were more favourable in females, with steady, though moderate, declines in both cohort and period values. According to the estimates from the model, the worst affected generation for male lung cancer was that born around 1910, and a flattening of trends or some moderate decline was observed for more recent cohorts, although this decline was considerably more limited than in other European countries. There were decreases in cohort and period values for stomach, intestine and oesophageal cancer in both sexes and (cervix) uteri in females. Increases were observed in both cohort and period trends for pancreas and liver in males and for several other neoplasms, including prostate, brain, leukaemias and lymphomas, restricted, however, for the latter sites, to the earlier cohorts and hence partly attributable to improved diagnosis and certification in the elderly. Although age values for lung cancer in females were around 10-times lower than in males, upward trends in female lung cancer cohort values were observed in subsequent cohorts and for period values from the late 1960's onwards. Therefore, future trends in female lung cancer mortality should continue to be monitored. The application of these age/period/cohort models thus provides a summary guide for the reading and interpretation of cancer mortality trends, although it cannot replace careful inspection of single age-specific rates.

Are we living longer but less healthy? Trends in mortality and morbidity in Catalonia (Spain), 1994-2011

Evidence on trends in prevalence of disease and disability can clarify whether countries are experiencing a compression or expansion of morbidity. An expansion of morbidity as indicated by disease have appeared in Europe and other developed regions. It is likely that better treatment, preventive measures and increases in education levels have contributed to the declines in mortality and increments in life expectancy. This paper examines whether there has been an expansion of morbidity in Catalonia (Spain). It uses trends in mortality and morbidity from major causes of death and links of these with survival to provide estimates of life expectancy with and without diseases and functioning loss. We use a repeated cross-sectional health survey carried out in 1994 and 2011 for measures of morbidity; mortality information comes from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Our findings show that at age 65 the percentage of life with disease increased from 52% to 70% for men, and from 56% to 72% for women; the expectation of life unable to function increased from 24% to 30% for men and 40% to 47% for women between 1994 and 2011. These changes were attributable to increases in the prevalences of diseases and moderate functional limitation. Overall, we find an expansion of morbidity along the period. Increasing survival among people with diseases can lead to a higher prevalence of diseases in the older population. Higher prevalence of health problems can lead to greater pressure on the health care system and a growing burden of disease for individuals.

Intravenous thrombolysis in stroke attributable to cervical artery dissection.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) for stroke seems to be beneficial independent of the underlying etiology. Whether this is also true for cervical artery dissection (CAD) is addressed in this study.METHODS: We used the Swiss IVT databank to compare outcome and complications of IVT-treated patients with CAD with IVT-treated patients with other etiologies (non-CAD patients). Main outcome and complication measures were favorable 3-month outcome, intracranial cerebral hemorrhage, and recurrent ischemic stroke. Modified Rankin Scale score <or=1 at 3 months was considered favorable.RESULTS: Fifty-five (5.2%) of 1062 IVT-treated patients had CAD. Patients with CAD were younger (median age 50 versus 70 years) but had similar median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores (14 versus 13) and time to treatment (152.5 versus 156 minutes) as non-CAD patients. In the CAD group, 36% (20 of 55) had a favorable 3-month outcome compared with 44% (447 of 1007) non-CAD patients (OR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.41 to 1.26), which was less favorable after adjustment for age, gender, and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (OR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.27 to 0.95; P=0.03). Intracranial cerebral hemorrhages (asymptomatic, symptomatic, fatal) were equally frequent in CAD (14% [7%, 7%, 2%]) and non-CAD patients (14% [9%, 5%, 2%]; P=0.99). Recurrent ischemic stroke occurred in 1.8% of patients with CAD and in 3.7% of non-CAD-patients (P=0.71).CONCLUSIONS: IVT-treated patients with CAD do not recover as well as IVT-treated non-CAD patients. However, intracranial bleedings and recurrent ischemic strokes were equally frequent in both groups. They do not account for different outcomes and indicate that IVT should not be excluded in patients who may have CAD. Hemodynamic compromise or frequent tandem occlusions might explain the less favorable outcome of patients with CAD.

Contribution of early detection and adjuvant treatments to breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia, Spain

Background: Reductions in breast cancer (BC) mortality in Western countries have been attributed to the use of screening mammography and adjuvant treatments. The goal of this work was to analyze the contributions of both interventions to the decrease in BC mortality between 1975 and 2008 in Catalonia. Methodology/Principal Findings: A stochastic model was used to quantify the contribution of each intervention. Age standardized BC mortality rates for calendar years 1975-2008 were estimated in four hypothetical scenarios: 1) Only screening, 2) Only adjuvant treatment, 3) Both interventions, and 4) No intervention. For the 30-69 age group, observed Catalan BC mortality rates per 100,000 women-year rose from 29.4 in 1975 to 38.3 in 1993, and afterwards continuously decreased to 23.2 in 2008. If neither of the two interventions had been used, in 2008 the estimated BC mortality would have been 43.5, which, compared to the observed BC mortality rate, indicates a 46.7% reduction. In 2008 the reduction attributable to screening was 20.4%, to adjuvant treatments was 15.8% and to both interventions 34.1%. Conclusions/Significance: Screening and adjuvant treatments similarly contributed to reducing BC mortality in Catalonia. Mathematical models have been useful to assess the impact of interventions addressed to reduce BC mortality that occurred over nearly the same periods.

Reducing Cardiovascular Mortality Through Prevention and Management of Raised Blood Pressure: A World Heart Federation Roadmap.

Prospective epidemiological data have shown that blood pressure has a graded, continuous adverse effect on the risk of various forms of CVD (including stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease and end-stage renal disease). 'Raised blood pressure' is frequently considered to be any systolic blood pressure greater than 115 mmHg. It accounts for 45% of all heart disease deaths and 51% of all stroke-related deaths [1], which together are the biggest causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide [2,3,4]. Annually, there are >17 million deaths due to CVD worldwide, of which 9.4 million are attributable to complications of raised blood pressure. This highlights the importance of both high-risk and population-based strategies in blood pressure management and control.

Weather and cardiovascular mortality.

Already in ancient Greece, Hippocrates postulated that disease showed a seasonal pattern characterised by excess winter mortality. Since then, several studies have confirmed this finding, and it was generally accepted that the increase in winter mortality was mostly due to respiratory infections and seasonal influenza. More recently, it was shown that cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality also displayed such seasonality, and that the magnitude of the seasonal effect increased from the poles to the equator. The recent study by Yang et al assessed CVD mortality attributable to ambient temperature using daily data from 15 cities in China for years 2007-2013, including nearly two million CVD deaths. A high temperature variability between and within cities can be observed (figure 1). They used sophisticated statistical methodology to account for the complex temperature-mortality relationship; first, distributed lag non-linear models combined with quasi-Poisson regression to obtain city-specific estimates, taking into account temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure; then, a meta-analysis to obtain the pooled estimates. The results confirm the winter excess mortality as reported by the Eurowinter3 and other4 groups, but they show that the magnitude of ambient temperature.

Perioperative cardiac arrest and its mortality in children. A 9-year survey in a Brazilian tertiary teaching hospital

Background: the incidence of perioperative cardiac arrest and mortality in children is higher than in adults. This survey evaluated the incidence, causes, and outcome of perioperative cardiac arrests in a pediatric surgical population in a tertiary teaching hospital between 1996 and 2004.Methods: the incidence of cardiac arrest during anesthesia was identified from an anesthesia database. During the study period, 15 253 anesthetics were performed in children. Data collected included patient demographics, surgical procedures (elective, urgent, or emergency), ASA physical status classification, anesthesia provider information, type of surgery, surgical areas, and outcome. All cardiac arrests were reviewed and grouped by the cause of arrest and death into one of four groups: totally anesthesia-related, partially anesthesia-related, totally surgery-related, or totally child disease or condition-related.Results: There were 35 cardiac arrests (22.9 : 10 000) and 15 deaths (9.8 : 10 000). Major risk factors for cardiac arrest were neonates and children under 1 year of age (P < 0.05) with ASA III or poorer physical status (P < 0.05), in emergency surgery (P < 0.05), and general anesthesia (P < 0.05). Child disease/condition was the major cause of cardiac arrest or death (P < 0.05). There were seven cardiac arrests because of anesthesia (4.58 : 10 000) - four totally (2.62 : 10 000) and three partially related to anesthesia (1.96 : 10 000). There were no anesthesia attributable deaths reported. The main causes of anesthesia attributable cardiac arrest were respiratory events (71.5%) and medication-related events (28.5%).Conclusions: Perioperative cardiac arrests were relatively higher in neonates and infants than in older children with severe underlying disease and during emergency surgery. The fact that all anesthesia attributable cardiac arrests were related to airway management and medication administration is important in prevention strategies.

Resting heart rate and incident heart failure and cardiovascular mortality in older adults: role of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction: the PROSPER study

Resting heart rate is a promising modifiable cardiovascular risk marker in older adults, but the mechanisms linking heart rate to cardiovascular disease are not fully understood. We aimed to assess the association between resting heart rate and incident heart failure (HF) and cardiovascular mortality, and to examine whether these associations might be attributable to systemic inflammation and endothelial dysfunction.

MORTALITY IN THE MEDICARE POPULATION AND CHRONIC EXPOSURE TO FINE PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION

Prospective cohort studies have provided evidence on longer-term mortality risks of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but due to their complexity and costs, only a few have been conducted. By linking monitoring data to the U.S. Medicare system by county of residence, we developed a retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), comprising over 20 million enrollees in the 250 largest counties during 2000-2002. We estimated log-linear regression models having as outcome the age-specific mortality rate for each county and as the main predictor, the average level for the study period 2000. Area-level covariates were used to adjust for socio-economic status and smoking. We reported results under several degrees of adjustment for spatial confounding and with stratification into by eastern, central and western counties. We estimated that a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM25 is associated with a 7.6% increase in mortality (95% CI: 4.4 to 10.8%). We found a stronger association in the eastern counties than nationally, with no evidence of an association in western counties. When adjusted for spatial confounding, the estimated log-relative risks drop by 50%. We demonstrated the feasibility of using Medicare data to establish cohorts for follow-up for effects of air pollution. Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a global public health problem (1). In developing countries, levels of airborne particles still reach concentrations at which serious health consequences are well-documented; in developed countries, recent epidemiologic evidence shows continued adverse effects, even though particle levels have declined in the last two decades (2-6). Increased mortality associated with higher levels of PM air pollution has been of particular concern, giving an imperative for stronger protective regulations (7). Evidence on PM and health comes from studies of acute and chronic adverse effects (6). The London Fog of 1952 provides dramatic evidence of the unacceptable short-term risk of extremely high levels of PM air pollution (8-10); multi-site time-series studies of daily mortality show that far lower levels of particles are still associated with short-term risk (5)(11-13). Cohort studies provide complementary evidence on the longer-term risks of PM air pollution, indicating the extent to which exposure reduces life expectancy. The design of these studies involves follow-up of cohorts for mortality over periods of years to decades and an assessment of mortality risk in association with estimated long-term exposure to air pollution (2-4;14-17). Because of the complexity and costs of such studies, only a small number have been conducted. The most rigorously executed, including the Harvard Six Cities Study and the American Cancer Society’s (ACS) Cancer Prevention Study II, have provided generally consistent evidence for an association of long- term exposure to particulate matter air pollution with increased all-cause and cardio-respiratory mortality (2,4,14,15). Results from these studies have been used in risk assessments conducted for setting the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for PM and for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to air pollution (18,19). Additional prospective cohort studies are necessary, however, to confirm associations between long-term exposure to PM and mortality, to broaden the populations studied, and to refine estimates by regions across which particle composition varies. Toward this end, we have used data from the U.S. Medicare system, which covers nearly all persons 65 years of age and older in the United States. We linked Medicare mortality data to (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) air pollution monitoring data to create a new retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), consisting of 20 million persons from 250 counties and representing about 50% of the US population of elderly living in urban settings. In this paper, we report on the relationship between longer-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality risk over the period 2000 to 2002 in the MCAPS.

Influence of Geographical Origin and Ethnicity on Mortality in Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in Canada, Europe, and the United States

Our objective was to assess differences in all-cause mortality, as well as AIDS and non-AIDS death rates, among patients started on antiretroviral therapy (ART) according to their geographical origin and ethnicity/race in Europe, Canada, and the United States. METHODS: This was a collaboration of 19 cohort studies of human immunodeficiency virus-positive subjects who have initiated ART (ART Cohort Collaboration) between 1998 and 2009. Adjusted mortality hazard ratios (AHRs) were estimated using Cox regression. A competing risk framework was used to estimate adjusted subdistribution hazard ratios for AIDS and non-AIDS mortality. RESULTS: Of 46 648 European patients, 16.3% were from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), 5.1% Caribbean and Latin America, 1.6% North Africa and Middle East, and 1.7% Asia/West; of 1371 patients from Canada, 14.9% were First Nations and 22.4% migrants, and of 7742 patients from North America, 55.5% were African American and 6.6% Hispanic. Migrants from SSA (AHR, 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], .68-.92) and Asia/West (AHR, 0.62; 95% CI, .41-.92) had lower mortality than Europeans; these differences appeared mainly attributable to lower non-AIDS mortality. Compared with white Canadians, mortality in Canadian First Nations people (AHR, 1.48; 95% CI, .96-2.29) was higher, both for AIDS and non-AIDS mortality rates. Among US patients, when compared with whites, African Americans had higher AIDS and non-AIDS mortality, and hazard ratios for all-cause mortality increased with time on ART. CONCLUSIONS: The lower mortality observed in migrants suggests "healthy migrant" effects, whereas the higher mortality in First Nations people and African Americans in North America suggests social inequality gaps. KEYWORDS: HIV infection, antiretroviral therapy, ethnic minorities, migrants Comment in Addressing disparities in HIV mortality: antiretroviral therapy is necessary but not sufficient. [Clin Infect Dis. 2013]

Hepatitis B and C infections in U.S. incarcerated populations: Prevalence and related mortality

Published reports have consistently indicated high prevalence of serologic markers for hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV) infection in U.S. incarcerated populations. Quantifying the current and projected burden of HBV and HCV infection and hepatitis-related sequelae in correctional healthcare systems with even modest precision remains elusive, however, because the prevalence and sequelae of HBV and HCV in U.S. incarcerated populations are not well-studied. This dissertation contributes to the assessment of the burden of HBV and HCV infections in U.S. incarcerated populations by addressing some of the deficiencies and gaps in previous research. ^ Objectives of the three dissertation studies were: (1) To investigate selected study-level factors as potential sources of heterogeneity in published HBV seroprevalence estimates in U.S. adult incarcerated populations (1975-2005), using meta-regression techniques; (2) To quantify the potential influence of suboptimal sensitivity of screening tests for antibodies to hepatitis C virus (anti-HCV) on previously reported anti-HCV prevalence estimates in U.S. incarcerated populations (1990-2005), by comparing these estimates to error-adjusted anti-HCV prevalence estimates in these populations; (3) To estimate death rates due to HBV, HCV, chronic liver disease (CLD/cirrhosis), and liver cancer from 1984 through 2003 in male prisoners in custody of the Texas Department of Criminal Justice (TDCJ) and to quantify the proportion of CLD/cirrhosis and liver cancer prisoner deaths attributable to HBV and/or HCV. ^ Results were as follows. Although meta-regression analyses were limited by the small body of literature, mean population age and serum collection year appeared to be sources of heterogeneity, respectively, in prevalence estimates of antibodies to HBV antigen (HBsAg+) and any positive HBV marker. Other population characteristics and study methods could not be ruled out as sources of heterogeneity. Anti-HCV prevalence is likely somewhat higher in male and female U.S. incarcerated populations than previously estimated in studies using anti-HCV screening tests alone without the benefit of repeat or additional testing. Death rates due to HBV, HCV, CLD/cirrhosis, and liver cancer from 1984 through 2003 in TDCJ male prisoners exceeded state and national rates. HCV rates appeared to be increasing and disproportionately affecting Hispanics. HCV was implicated in nearly one-third of liver cancer deaths. ^