Carbon stock and its compartments in a subtropical oxisol under long-term tillage and crop rotation systems

Soil organic matter (SOM) plays a crucial role in soil quality and can act as an atmospheric C-CO2 sink under conservationist management systems. This study aimed to evaluate the long-term effects (19 years) of tillage (CT-conventional tillage and NT-no tillage) and crop rotations (R0-monoculture system, R1-winter crop rotation, and R2- intensive crop rotation) on total, particulate and mineral-associated organic carbon (C) stocks of an originally degraded Red Oxisol in Cruz Alta, RS, Southern Brazil. The climate is humid subtropical Cfa 2a (Köppen classification), the mean annual precipitation 1,774 mm and mean annual temperature 19.2 ºC. The plots were divided into four segments, of which each was sampled in the layers 0-0.05, 0.05-0.10, 0.10-0.20, and 0.20-0.30 m. Sampling was performed manually by opening small trenches. The SOM pools were determined by physical fractionation. Soil C stocks had a linear relationship with annual crop C inputs, regardless of the tillage systems. Thus, soil disturbance had a minor effect on SOM turnover. In the 0-0.30 m layer, soil C sequestration ranged from 0 to 0.51 Mg ha-1 yr-1, using the CT R0 treatment as base-line; crop rotation systems had more influence on soil stock C than tillage systems. The mean C sequestration rate of the cropping systems was 0.13 Mg ha-1 yr-1 higher in NT than CT. This result was associated to the higher C input by crops due to the improvement in soil quality under long-term no-tillage. The particulate C fraction was a sensitive indicator of soil management quality, while mineral-associated organic C was the main pool of atmospheric C fixed in this clayey Oxisol. The C retention in this stable SOM fraction accounts for 81 and 89 % of total C sequestration in the treatments NT R1 and NT R2, respectively, in relation to the same cropping systems under CT. The highest C management index was observed in NT R2, confirming the capacity of this soil management practice to improve the soil C stock qualitatively in relation to CT R0. The results highlighted the diversification of crop rotation with cover crops as a crucial strategy for atmospheric C-CO2 sequestration and SOM quality improvement in highly weathered subtropical Oxisols.

Long-term C-CO2 emissions and carbon crop residue mineralization in an oxisol under different tillage and crop rotation systems

Soil C-CO2 emissions are sensitive indicators of management system impacts on soil organic matter (SOM). The main soil C-CO2 sources at the soil-plant interface are the decomposition of crop residues, SOM turnover, and respiration of roots and soil biota. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the impacts of tillage and cropping systems on long-term soil C-CO2 emissions and their relationship with carbon (C) mineralization of crop residues. A long-term experiment was conducted in a Red Oxisol in Cruz Alta, RS, Brazil, with subtropical climate Cfa (Köppen classification), mean annual precipitation of 1,774 mm and mean annual temperature of 19.2 ºC. Treatments consisted of two tillage systems: (a) conventional tillage (CT) and (b) no tillage (NT) in combination with three cropping systems: (a) R0- monoculture system (soybean/wheat), (b) R1- winter crop rotation (soybean/wheat/soybean/black oat), and (c) R2- intensive crop rotation (soybean/ black oat/soybean/black oat + common vetch/maize/oilseed radish/wheat). The soil C-CO2 efflux was measured every 14 days for two years (48 measurements), by trapping the CO2 in an alkaline solution. The soil gravimetric moisture in the 0-0.05 m layer was determined concomitantly with the C-CO2 efflux measurements. The crop residue C mineralization was evaluated with the mesh-bag method, with sampling 14, 28, 56, 84, 112, and 140 days after the beginning of the evaluation period for C measurements. Four C conservation indexes were used to assess the relation between C-CO2 efflux and soil C stock and its compartments. The crop residue C mineralization fit an exponential model in time. For black oat, wheat and maize residues, C mineralization was higher in CT than NT, while for soybean it was similar. Soil moisture was higher in NT than CT, mainly in the second year of evaluation. There was no difference in tillage systems for annual average C-CO2 emissions, but in some individual evaluations, differences between tillage systems were noticed for C-CO2 evolution. Soil C-CO2 effluxes followed a bi-modal pattern, with peaks in October/November and February/March. The highest emission was recorded in the summer and the lowest in the winter. The C-CO2 effluxes were weakly correlated to air temperature and not correlated to soil moisture. Based on the soil C conservation indexes investigated, NT associated to intensive crop rotation was more C conserving than CT with monoculture.

Stable carbon isotopes in archaeobotanical remains and palaeoclimate

Es descriu una metodologia recent per a inferir la precipitació en el passat basada en l’anàlisi de la composició isotòpica del carboni (δ13C) en restes arqueobotàniques. Un cop descrita la base fisiològica de la tècnica, s’il·lustra l’aplicabilitat de δ13C mitjançant un exemple referent al NE peninsular. Hom pretén proporcionar una estimació quantitativa de l’evolució de la precipitació estacional (primavera) i anual al llarg dels darrers quatre mil anys basada en δ13C. Les mostres analitzades comprenen carbons (pi blanc) i llavors carbonitzades (blat i ordi), i s’obtenen estimes pluviomètriques superiors en el passat que actualment, amb una tendència gradual cap a condicions progressivament més àrides. No obstant això, aquesta tendència no esdevé uniforme, i es detecten dues fases de major precipitació (1800-900 aC; 300 aC - 300 dC) alternadament amb períodes relativament secs (900-300 aC; 900 dC - present). Dels resultats presentats també es desprèn que la importància relativa de la pluja primaveral en el passat fou variable. Des d’aproximadament el 300 aC en endavant, el període primaveral subministrà una major proporció de pluja anual que actualment. Contràriament, durant el període 1800-800 dC la seva contribució va esdevenir inferior, i va aparèixer una fase transitòria (800-300 aC) que mostra una recuperació sobtada en aportació primaveral. Posteriorment a aquesta fase la sincronia de canvis en δ13C en granes i carbons suggereix l’arribada del clima mediterrani a la regió.

Evaluation of the throughfall and stemflow nutrient contents in mixed and pure plantations of Acacia mangium, Pseudosamenea guachapele and Eucalyptus grandis

The interception of the rainfall by the forest canopy has great relevance to the nutrient geochemistry cycle in low fertility tropical soils under native or cultivated forests. However, little is known about the modification of the rainfall water quality and hydrological balance after interception by the canopies of eucalyptus under pure and mixed plantations with leguminous species, in Brazil. Samples of rainfall (RF), throughfall (TF) and stemflow (SF) were collected and analyzed in pure plantations of mangium (nitrogen fixing tree -NFT), guachapele (NFT) and eucalyptus (non-nitrogen fixing tree -NNFT) and in a mixed stand of guachapele and eucalyptus in Seropédica, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Nine stemflow collectors (in selected trees) and nine pluviometers were randomly disposed under each stand and three pluviometers were used to measure the incident rainfall during 5.5 months. Mangium conveyed 33.4% of the total rainfall for its stem. An estimative based on corrections for the average annual precipitation (1213 mm) indicated that the rainfall's contribution to the nutrient input (kg ha-1) was about 8.42; 0.95; 19.04; 6.74; 4.72 and 8.71 kg ha-1 of N-NH4+, P, K+, Ca+2, Mg+2 and Na+, respectively. Throughfall provided the largest contributions compared to the stemflow nutrient input. The largest inputs of N-NH4+ (15.03 kg ha-1) and K+ (179.43 kg ha-1) were observed under the guachapele crown. Large amounts of Na+ denote a high influence of the sea. Mangium was the most adapted species to water competitiveness. Comparatively to pure stand of eucalyptus, the mixed plantation intensifies the N, Ca and Mg leaching by the canopy, while the inputs of K and P were lower under these plantations.

Spatial variability of the rainfall erosive potential in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Information about rainfall erosivity is important during soil and water conservation planning. Thus, the spatial variability of rainfall erosivity of the state Mato Grosso do Sul was analyzed using ordinary kriging interpolation. For this, three pluviograph stations were used to obtain the regression equations between the erosivity index and the rainfall coefficient EI30. The equations obtained were applied to 109 pluviometric stations, resulting in EI30 values. These values were analyzed from geostatistical technique, which can be divided into: descriptive statistics, adjust to semivariogram, cross-validation process and implementation of ordinary kriging to generate the erosivity map.Highest erosivity values were found in central and northeast regions of the State, while the lowest values were observed in the southern region. In addition, high annual precipitation values not necessarily produce higher erosivity values.

An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India—a historical perspective 1889–2008

Mann–Kendall non-parametric test was employed for observational trend detection of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation of five meteorological subdivisions of Central Northeast India (CNE India) for different 30-year normal periods (NP) viz. 1889–1918 (NP1), 1919–1948 (NP2), 1949–1978 (NP3) and 1979–2008 (NP4). The trends of maximum and minimum temperatures were also investigated. The slopes of the trend lines were determined using the method of least square linear fitting. An application of Morelet wavelet analysis was done with monthly rainfall during June– September, total rainfall during monsoon season and annual rainfall to know the periodicity and to test the significance of periodicity using the power spectrum method. The inferences figure out from the analyses will be helpful to the policy managers, planners and agricultural scientists to work out irrigation and water management options under various possible climatic eventualities for the region. The long-term (1889–2008) mean annual rainfall of CNE India is 1,195.1 mm with a standard deviation of 134.1 mm and coefficient of variation of 11%. There is a significant decreasing trend of 4.6 mm/year for Jharkhand and 3.2 mm/day for CNE India. Since rice crop is the important kharif crop (May– October) in this region, the decreasing trend of rainfall during themonth of July may delay/affect the transplanting/vegetative phase of the crop, and assured irrigation is very much needed to tackle the drought situation. During themonth of December, all the meteorological subdivisions except Jharkhand show a significant decreasing trend of rainfall during recent normal period NP4. The decrease of rainfall during December may hamper sowing of wheat, which is the important rabi crop (November–March) in most parts of this region. Maximum temperature shows significant rising trend of 0.008°C/year (at 0.01 level) during monsoon season and 0.014°C/year (at 0.01 level) during post-monsoon season during the period 1914– 2003. The annual maximum temperature also shows significant increasing trend of 0.008°C/year (at 0.01 level) during the same period. Minimum temperature shows significant rising trend of 0.012°C/year (at 0.01 level) during postmonsoon season and significant falling trend of 0.002°C/year (at 0.05 level) during monsoon season. A significant 4– 8 years peak periodicity band has been noticed during September over Western UP, and 30–34 years periodicity has been observed during July over Bihar subdivision. However, as far as CNE India is concerned, no significant periodicity has been noticed in any of the time series.

Vegetation changes in a river oasis on the southern rim of the Taklamakan Desert in China between 1956 and 2000

The indigenous vegetation surrounding the river oases on the southern rim of the Taklamakan Desert has drastically diminished due to overexploitation as a source of fodder, timber and fuel for the human population. The change in the spatial extent of landscape forms and vegetation types around the Qira oasis was analyzed by comparing SPOT satellite images from 1998 with aerial photographs from 1956. The analysis was supplemented by field surveys in 1999 and 2000. The study is part of a joint Chinese-European project with the aim of assessing the current state of the foreland vegetation, of gathering information on the regeneration potential and of suggesting procedures for a sustainable management. With 33 mm of annual precipitation, plants can only grow if they have access to groundwater, lakes or rivers. Most of the available water comes into the desert via rivers in the form of seasonal flooding events resulting from snow melt in the Kun Lun Mountains. This water is captured in canal systems and used for irrigation of arable fields. Among the eight herbaceous and woody vegetation types and the type of open sand without any plant life that were mapped in 2000 in the oasis foreland, only the latter, the oasis border between cultivated land and open Populus euphratica forests and Tamarix ramosissima-Phragmites australis riverbed vegetation could be clearly identified on the photographs from 1956. The comparison of the images revealed that the oasis increased in area between 1956 and 2000. Shifting sand was successfully combated near to the oasis borders but increased in extent at the outward border of the foreland vegetation. In contrast to expectations, the area covered with Populus trees was smaller in 1956 than today due to some new forests in the north of the oasis that have grown up since 1977. Subfossil wood and leaf remnants of Populus euphratica that were found in many places in the foreland must have originated from forests destroyed before 1956. In the last 50 years, the main Qira River has shifted its bed significantly northward and developed a new furcation with a large new bed in 1986. The natural river dynamics are not only an important factor in forming the oasis’ landscape but also in providing the only possible regeneration sites for all occurring plant species. The conclusion of the study is that the oasis landscape has changed considerably in the last 50 years due to natural floodings and to vegetation degradation by human overexploitation. The trend towards decreasing width of the indigenous vegetation belt resulting from the advancing desert and the expansion of arable land is particularly alarming because a decrease in its protective function against shifting sand can be expected in the future.

Untersuchungen zu Controlled Traffic Farming und satellitenbasierten Lenksystemen

Diese Arbeit behandelt Controlled Traffic Farming (CTF) Anbausysteme, bei denen für alle Arbeitsgänge satellitengesteuert immer dieselben Fahrspuren benutzt werden. Lässt sich mit CTF die Belastung des Bodens verringern und die Effizienz von Direktsaat-Anbausystemen steigern? Neben agronomischen und bodenphysikalischen Parametern wurden Auswirkungen von Lenksystemen und Umsetzungsmöglichkeiten von CTF in die Praxis untersucht. Die Analyse einer CTF-Umsetzung unter europäischen Bedingungen mit der Verwendung von Standardmaschinen zeigte, dass sich CTF-Anbausysteme mit den heute zur Verfügung stehenden Maschinen für Dauergrünland, Mähdruschfrüchte und Mais auf kleiner und grösser strukturierten Flächen relativ einfach mechanisieren lassen. Bei Zuckerrüben und Kartoffeln können Kompromisse notwendig sein. Generell erfordern CTF-Anbausysteme eine sorgfältige Planung und Umsetzung in die Praxis. Im dreijährigen Feldversuch (Winterweizen, Wintergerste, Kunstwiese mit Kleegrasmischung) auf einem Lehmboden wurde CTF-Direktsaat mit konventionell zufällig befahrenen Direktsaat- und Pflugverfahren verglichen. Unter CTF zeigte sich eine Differenzierung der nicht, gering und intensiv befahrenen Varianten. Auf dem vorliegenden kompakten Boden mit 1150 mm Jahresniederschlag waren die Unterschiede zwischen den nicht befahrenen Flächen und den mit niedrigem Kontaktflächendruck befahrenen Flächen eher gering. In den nicht befahrenen Flächen entwickelten Eindringwiderstand und Kohlendioxidgehalt der Bodenluft nach drei Jahren signifikant bessere Werte. Bodendichte und Porosität zeigten hingegen keinen eindeutig interpretierbaren Trend. Aufgrund teils suboptimaler Feldaufgänge liess sich keine generelle agronomische Tendenz ableiten. Die intensive Befahrung der Pflegefahrgassen zeigte allerdings klar negative bodenkundliche und planzenbauliche Auswirkungen. Es bietet sich daher an, vor allem für Pflegearbeiten permanent dieselben Fahrspuren zu nutzen. In der Untersuchung zu den Auswirkungen von Lenksystemen zeigten sich signifikante Vorteile von Lenksystemen in einer Verminderung der Fahrerbelastung und einer höheren Lenkgenauigkeit vor allem bei grossen Arbeitsbreiten ohne Spuranreisser. Die meisten anderen Messparameter waren mit Lenksystem leicht vorteilhafter als ohne, unterschieden sich aber nicht signifikant voneinander. Fahrer und naturräumliche Gegebenheiten wie die Schlagform hatten einen wesentlich grösseren Einfluss. Gesamthaft betrachtet erweitert CTF in Kombination mit weiteren Bodenschutzmass-nahmen die Möglichkeiten, Bodenverdichtungen zu vermeiden, den Bedarf an energieintensiver Bodenlocke-rung zu reduzieren und die Entwicklung einer stabileren Bodenstruktur mit höherer Tragfähigkeit zu fördern. Zusammen mit einer an Kultur und Anbausystem angepassten Saatbettbereitung und den in geraden Reihen einfacher durchführbaren mechanischen Pflegemassnahmen ergeben sich gute Voraussetzungen für die Gestaltung agronomisch leistungsfähiger und ökologisch nachhaltiger Anbausysteme.

Changes of traditional farming systems and their effects on land degradation and socio-economic conditions in the Inle Lake region, Myanmar

At many locations in Myanmar, ongoing changes in land use have negative environmental impacts and threaten natural ecosystems at local, regional and national scales. In particular, the watershed area of Inle Lake in eastern Myanmar is strongly affected by the environmental effects of deforestation and soil erosion caused by agricultural intensification and expansion of agricultural land, which are exacerbated by the increasing population pressure and the growing number of tourists. This thesis, therefore, focuses on land use changes in traditional farming systems and their effects on socio-economic and biophysical factors to improve our understanding of sustainable natural resource management of this wetland ecosystem. The main objectives of this research were to: (1) assess the noticeable land transformations in space and time, (2) identify the typical farming systems as well as the divergent livelihood strategies, and finally, (3) estimate soil erosion risk in the different agro-ecological zones surrounding the Inle Lake watershed area. GIS and remote sensing techniques allowed to identify the dynamic land use and land cover changes (LUCC) during the past 40 years based on historical Corona images (1968) and Landsat images (1989, 2000 and 2009). In this study, 12 land cover classes were identified and a supervised classification was used for the Landsat datasets, whereas a visual interpretation approach was conducted for the Corona images. Within the past 40 years, the main landscape transformation processes were deforestation (- 49%), urbanization (+ 203%), agricultural expansion (+ 34%) with a notably increase of floating gardens (+ 390%), land abandonment (+ 167%), and marshlands losses in wetland area (- 83%) and water bodies (- 16%). The main driving forces of LUCC appeared to be high population growth, urbanization and settlements, a lack of sustainable land use and environmental management policies, wide-spread rural poverty, an open market economy and changes in market prices and access. To identify the diverse livelihood strategies in the Inle Lake watershed area and the diversity of income generating activities, household surveys were conducted (total: 301 households) using a stratified random sampling design in three different agro-ecological zones: floating gardens (FG), lowland cultivation (LL) and upland cultivation (UP). A cluster and discriminant analysis revealed that livelihood strategies and socio-economic situations of local communities differed significantly in the different zones. For all three zones, different livelihood strategies were identified which differed mainly in the amount of on-farm and off-farm income, and the level of income diversification. The gross margin for each household from agricultural production in the floating garden, lowland and upland cultivation was US$ 2108, 892 and 619 ha-1 respectively. Among the typical farming systems in these zones, tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum L.) plantation in the floating gardens yielded the highest net benefits, but caused negative environmental impacts given the overuse of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and spatial analysis within GIS were applied to estimate soil erosion risk in the different agricultural zones and for the main cropping systems of the study region. The results revealed that the average soil losses in year 1989, 2000 and 2009 amounted to 20, 10 and 26 t ha-1, respectively and barren land along the steep slopes had the highest soil erosion risk with 85% of the total soil losses in the study area. Yearly fluctuations were mainly caused by changes in the amount of annual precipitation and the dynamics of LUCC such as deforestation and agriculture extension with inappropriate land use and unsustainable cropping systems. Among the typical cropping systems, upland rainfed rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivation had the highest rate of soil erosion (20 t ha-1yr-1) followed by sebesten (Cordia dichotoma) and turmeric (Curcuma longa) plantation in the UP zone. This study indicated that the hotspot region of soil erosion risk were upland mountain areas, especially in the western part of the Inle lake. Soil conservation practices are thus urgently needed to control soil erosion and lake sedimentation and to conserve the wetland ecosystem. Most farmers have not yet implemented soil conservation measures to reduce soil erosion impacts such as land degradation, sedimentation and water pollution in Inle Lake, which is partly due to the low economic development and poverty in the region. Key challenges of agriculture in the hilly landscapes can be summarized as follows: fostering the sustainable land use of farming systems for the maintenance of ecosystem services and functions while improving the social and economic well-being of the population, integrated natural resources management policies and increasing the diversification of income opportunities to reduce pressure on forest and natural resources.

Changes in the extent of glaciers in the Eastern Terskey Alatoo, the Central Tien-Shan, in response to climatic fluctuations in between the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 21st century

Changes in the extent of glaciers and rates of glacier termini retreat in the eastern Terskey-Alatoo Range, the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia have been evaluated using the remote sensing techniques. Changes in the extent of 335 glaciers between the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA; mid-19th century), 1990 and 2003 have been estimated through the delineation of glacier outlines and the LIA moraine positions on the Landsat TM and ASTER imagery for 1990 and 2003 respectively. By 2003, the glacier surface area had decreased by 19% of the LIA value, which constitutes a 76 km(2) reduction in glacier surface area. Mapping of 109 glaciers using the 1965 1:25,000 maps revealed that glacier surface area decreased by 12.6% of the 1965 value between 1965 and 2003. Detailed mapping of 10 glaciers using historical maps and aerial photographs from the 1943-1977 period, has enabled glacier extent variations over the 20th century to be identified with a higher temporal resolution. Glacial retreat was slow in the early 20th century but increased considerably between 1943 and 1956 and then again after 1977. The post-1990 period has been marked by the most rapid glacier retreat since the end of the LIA. The observed changes in the extent of glaciers are in line with the observed climatic warming. The regional weather stations have revealed a strong climatic warming during the ablation season since the 1950s at a rate of 0.02-0.03 degrees Ca-1. At the higher elevations in the study area represented by the Tien Shan meteorological station, the summer warming was accompanied by negative anomalies in annual precipitation in the 1990s enhancing glacier retreat. However, trends in precipitation in the post-1997 period cannot be evaluated due to the change in observational practices at this station. Neither station in the study area exhibits significant long-term trends in precipitation. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Glacier shrinkage and climatic change in the Russian Altai from the mid-20th century: An assessment using remote sensing and PRECIS regional climate model

This paper examines changes in the surface area of glaciers in the North and South Chuya Ridges, Altai Mountains in 1952-2004 and their links with regional climatic variations. The glacier surface areas for 2004 were derived from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) imagery. Data from the World Glacier Inventory (WGI)dating to 1952 and aerial photographs from 1952 were used to estimate the changes. 256 glaciers with a combined area of 253±5.1 km2 have been identified in the region in 2004. Estimation of changes in extent of 126 glaciers with the individual areas not less than 0.5 km2 in 1952 revealed a 19.7±5.8% reduction. The observed glacier retreat is primarily driven by an increase in summer temperatures since the 1980s when air temperatures were increasing at a rate of 0.10 - 0.13oC a-1 at the glacier tongue elevation. The regional climate projections for A2 and B2 CO2 emission scenarios developed using PRECIS regional climate model indicate that summer temperatures will increase in the Altai in 2071-2100 by 6-7oC and 3-5oC respectively in comparison with 1961-1990 while annual precipitation will increase by 15% and 5%. The length of the ablation season will extend from June-August to the late April – early October. The projected increases in precipitation will not compensate for the projected warming and glaciers will continue to retreat in the 21st century under both B2 and A2 scenarios.

Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099)

We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

Assessing the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change using an ensemble of statistical bioclimatic envelope models

We assessed the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change in Great Britain using an ensemble of 8 bioclimatic envelope models. We used 4 published models that ranged from simple threshold models, based on total annual precipitation, to Generalised Linear Models (GLMs, based on mean annual temperature). In addition, 4 new models were developed which included measures of water deficit as threshold, classification tree, GLM and generalised additive models (GAM). Models that included measures of both hydrological conditions and maximum temperature provided a better fit to the mapped peat area than models based on hydrological variables alone. Under UKCIP02 projections for high (A1F1) and low (B1) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, 7 out of the 8 models showed a decline in the bioclimatic space associated with blanket peat. Eastern regions (Northumbria, North York Moors, Orkney) were shown to be more vulnerable than higher-altitude, western areas (Highlands, Western Isles and Argyle, Bute and The Trossachs). These results suggest a long-term decline in the distribution of actively growing blanket peat, especially under the high emissions scenario, although it is emphasised that existing peatlands may well persist for decades under a changing climate. Observational data from long-term monitoring and manipulation experiments in combination with process-based models are required to explore the nature and magnitude of climate change impacts on these vulnerable areas more fully.

Assessment of projected changes in upland environments using simple climatic indices

Climate controls upland habitats, soils and their associated ecosystem services; therefore, understanding possible changes in upland climatic conditions can provide a rapid assessment of climatic vulnerability over the next century. We used 3 different climatic indices that were optimised to fit the upland area classified by the EU as a Severely Disadvantaged Area (SDA) 1961–1990. Upland areas within the SDA covered all altitudinal ranges, whereas the maximum altitude of lowland areas outside of the SDA was ca. 300 m. In general, the climatic index based on the ratio between annual accumulated temperature (as a measure of growing season length) and annual precipitation predicted 96% of the SDA mapped area, which was slightly better than those indices based on annual or seasonal water deficit. Overall, all climatic indices showed that upland environments were exposed to some degree of change by 2071–2100 under UKCIP02 climate projections for high and low emissions scenarios. The projected area declined by 13 to 51% across 3 indices for the low emissions scenario and by 24 to 84% for the high emissions scenario. Mean altitude of the upland area increased by +11 to +86 m for the low scenario and +21 to +178 m for the high scenario. Low altitude areas in eastern and southern Great Britain were most vulnerable to change. These projected climatic changes are likely to affect upland habitat composition, long-term soil carbon storage and wider ecosystem service provision, although it is not yet possible to determine the rate at which this might occur.

The changing atmospheric water cycle in polar regions in a warmer climate

We have examined the atmospheric water cycle of both Polar Regions, pole wards of 60°N and 60°S, using the ERA-Interim re-analysis and high-resolution simulations with the ECHAM5 model for both the present and future climate based on the IPCC, A1B scenario, representative of the last three decades of the 21st century. The annual precipitation in ERA-Interim amounts to ~17000 km3 and is more or less the same in the Arctic and the Antarctic, but it is composed differently. In the Arctic the annual evaporation is some 8000 km3 but some 3000 km3 less in the Antarctica where the net horizontal transport is correspondingly larger. The net water transport of the model is more intense than in ERA-Interim, in the Arctic the difference is 2.5% and in the Antarctic it is 6.2%. Precipitation and net horizontal transport in the Arctic has a maximum in August and September. Evaporation peaks in June and July. The seasonal cycle is similar in Antarctica with the highest precipitation in the austral autumn. The largest net transport occurs at the end of the major extra-tropical storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere such as the eastern Pacific and eastern north Atlantic. The variability of the model is virtually identical to that of the re-analysis and there are no changes in variability between the present climate and the climate at the end of the 21st century when normalized with the higher level of moisture. The changes from year to year are substantial with the 20 and 30-year records being generally too short to identify robust trends in the hydrological cycle. In the A1B climate scenario the strength of the water cycle increases by some 25% in the Arctic and by 19% in the Antarctica, as measured by annual precipitation. The increase in the net horizontal transport is 29% and 22% respectively, and the increase in evaporation correspondingly less. The net transport follows closely the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. There is 2 a minor change in the annual cycle of the Arctic atmospheric water cycle with the maximum transport and precipitation occurring later in the year. There is a small imbalance of some 4-6% between the net transport and precipitation minus evaporation. We suggest that this is mainly due to the fact the transport is calculated from instantaneous 6-hourly data while precipitation and evaporation is accumulated over a 6 hour period. The residual difference is proportionally similar for all experiments and hardly varies from year to year.