A simple model of multiple equilibria and default. CEPS Working Document No. 366, 16 July 2012

This Working Document by Daniel Gros presents a simple model that incorporates two types of sovereign default cost: first, a lump-sum cost due to the fact that the country does not service its debt fully and is recognised as being in default status, by ratings agencies, for example. Second, a cost that increases with the size of the losses (or haircut) imposed on creditors whose resistance to a haircut increases with the proportional loss inflicted upon them. One immediate implication of the model is that under some circumstances the creditors have a (collective) interest to forgive some debt in order to induce the country not to default. The model exhibits a potential for multiple equilibria, given that a higher interest rate charged by investors increases the debt service burden and thus the temptation to default. Under very high debt levels credit rationing can set in as the feedback loop between higher interest rates and the higher incentive to default can become explosive. The introduction of uncertainty makes multiple equilibria less likely and reduces their range.

Crystal structure of (isothiocyanato)(2-pyridinecarboxaldehydebenzoylhydrazonato)copper(I),Cu(C13H10N3O)(NCS)

C14H10CuN4OS, monoclinic, P12(1)/nl (no. 14), a = 8.837(1) angstrom, b = 15.625(2) angstrom, c = 10.366(1) angstrom, beta = 103.36(1)degrees, V = 1392.6 angstrom(3), Z = 4, R-gt(F) = 0.029, WRref(F-2) = 0.076, T = 150 K.

Development and calibration of a portable radon sampling system for groundwater (222)Rn activity concentration measurements

The assembling of a system for field sampling and activity concentration measurement of radon dissolved in groundwater is described. Special attention is given in presenting the calibration procedure to obtain the radon activity concentration in groundwater from the raw counting rate registered in a portable scintillation detector and in establishing the precision of the activity concentration measurements. A field procedure was established and the system tested during one year of monthly observations of (222)Rn activity concentration in groundwater drawn from two wells drilled on metamorphic rocks exposed at Eastern Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The observed mean (222)Rn activity concentrations are 374 Bq/dm(3) in one well and about 1275 Bq/dm(3) in the other one. In both wells the (222)Rn activity concentrations showed a seasonal variation similar to variations previously reported in the literature for the same region. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment the Health Hazard from (222)Rn in Old Metalliferous Mines in San Luis, Argentina

Radon levels in two old mines in San Luis, Argentina, are reported and analyzed. The radiation dose and environmental health risk of (222)Rn concentrations to both guides and visitors were estimated. CR-39 nuclear track detectors were used for this purpose. The values for the (222)Rn concentration at each monitoring site ranged from 0.43 +/- 0.04 to 1.48 +/- 0.12 kBq m(-3) in the Los Cndores wolfram mine and from 1.8 +/- 0.1 to 6.0 +/- 0.5 kBq center dot m(-3) in the La Carolina gold mine, indicating that, in this mine, the radon levels exceed up to four times the action level of 1.5 kBq m(-3) recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. The patterns of the radon transport process revealed that the La Carolina gold mine can be interpreted as a gas confined into a single tube with constant cross-section and air velocity. Patterns of radon activity, taking into account the chimney-effect winds, were used to detect tributary currents of air from shafts or larger fissures along the main adit of the Los Cndores mine, showing that radon can be used as an important tracer of tributary air currents stream out from fissures and smaller voids in the rock of the mine.

Doses from Rn-222, Ra-226, and Ra-228 in groundwater from Guarani aquifer, South America

Groundwater samples were analysed for Rn-222, Ra-226, and Ra-228 in Guarani aquifer spreading around I million kin 2 within four countries in South America, and it was found that their activity concentrations are lognormally distributed. Population-weighted average activity concentration for these radionuclides allowed to estimate a value: either slightly higher (0.13 mSv/year) than 0.1 mSv for the total effective dose or two times higher (0.21 mSv/year) than this limit, depending on the choice of the dose conversion factor. Such calculation adds useful information for the appropriate management of this transboundary aquifer that is socially and economically very important to about 15 million inhabitants living in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The implications of laboratory Rn-222 flux measurements to the radioactivity in groundwaters: the case of a karstic limestone aquifer

Laboratory time-scale experiments were conducted on Carboniferous Limestone gravels from the Mendip Hills area, England, with the purpose of evaluating the release of Rn-222 to the water phase. The specific surface areas of the samples were 4.14 and 1.69 cm g(-1), which provided, respectively, values of 50.6 and 12.7 pCi for the released Rn. These results allowed the calculation of the emanation coefficient of this rock matrix with respect to the release of Rn, where completely different values corresponding to 23% and 6% were found, suggesting that the extent to which grain boundaries or imperfections in aggregates of micro-crystals of calcite intersect the particle surface certainly affects the Rn release. They also permitted the evaluation of models for the generation of Rn in rocks and transfer to water, in order to interpret the radioactivity due to this gas in groundwaters from the karstic aquifer of the Mendip Hills area, where the calculated activities in groundwater based on the values of 23% and 6% for the emanation coefficient were about 51 and 15 times higher than actually measured in groundwater. Therefore, the emanation coefficient in nature is considerably smaller than in the lab experiment, and another factor k (0 < k < 1) may be introduced into the equations related to the modelling, with the aim of adjusting the theoretical-practical results. (C) 1997 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Induction or exacerbation of psoriatic lesions during anti-TNF-α therapy for inflammatory bowel disease: A systematic literature review based on 222 cases

Background: Paradoxical cases of psoriatic lesions induced or exacerbated by anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α therapy have been reported more frequently in recent years, but data related to inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are rare. A systematic literature review was performed to provide information about this adverse effect in patients with IBD who receive anti-TNF therapy. Methods: Published studies were identified by a search of Medline, Embase, Cochrane, SciELO, and LILACS databases. Results: A total of 47 studies (222 patients) fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were selected for analysis. Clinical and therapeutic aspects varied considerably among these reports. Of the 222 patients, 78.38% were diagnosed with Crohn's disease, and 48.20% were female. The mean patient age was 26.50. years, and 70.72% of patients had no history of psoriasis. Patients developed psoriasiform lesions (55.86%) more often than other types of psoriatic lesions, and infliximab was the anti-TNF-α therapy that caused the cutaneous reaction in most patients (69.37%). Complete remission of cutaneous lesions was observed in 63.96% of the cases. Conclusions: We found that psoriatic lesions occurred predominantly in adult patients with Crohn's disease who received infliximab and had no previous history of psoriasis. Most patients can be managed conservatively without discontinuing anti-TNF-α therapy. © 2012 European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation.