How relevant is tourism research

One of the definitions of the term myth is ‘an unproved or false collective belief that is used to justify a social institution’ (see http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/myth). Before we are criticized for suggesting such an irreverent thought might apply to tourism academia, readers must recognize that organizations and industries often operate using shared collective myths (see Meyer and Rowan 1977). Institutionalized rules and processes function as myths that provide legitimacy. The question of interest in this paper is not in the context of the quality of tourism academic research output, which is addressed by other papers in this research probe section. Rather, of importance is enhancing understanding of the extent to which our collective knowledge, legitimized through publishing in peer reviewed academic publications, is proving of value to industry stakeholders, an axiom that appears to be largely unquestioned and unproven.

Australian student reactions to U.S. tourism advertising : a test of advertising as public diplomacy

A study among Australian college students gauged their reactions to a television commercial produced for the U.S. Commerce Department to bolster sagging tourism numbers among international visitors. In addition to using traditional measures applied to tourism advertisements, the student also concluded items to measure attitudes toward the U.S. government and its people Pre- and post-viewing results indicated that while the Hollywood-movie-themed commercial was not well received by the Australian students as a tourism message, it did result in more favorable attitudes toward the U.S. government, though not the U.S. people. The findings lend partial support for the potential of tourism advertising efforts to exert a "bleed-over effect" in terms of their contributions to overall attitudes toward a country, regardless of whether viewers plan to visit the country whose travel advertisements they see.

Australian student reactions to US tourism advertising : a test of advertising as public diplomacy

A study among Australian college students gauged their reactions to a television commercial produced for the US Commerce Department to bolster sagging tourism numbers among international visitors. In additional to using traditional measures applied to tourism advertisements, the study also included items to measure attitudes toward the US government and its people. Pre- and post-viewing results indicated that although the Hollywood-movie-themes commercial was not well received by the Australian students as a tourism message, it did result in more favourable attitudes toward the US government, although not the US people. The findings lend partial support for the potential of tourism advertising efforts to exert a 'bleed-over effect' in terms of their contribution to overall attitudes toward a country, regardless of whether viewers plan to visit the country whose travel advertisements of which they see.

Consumer-based brand equity for Australia as a long haul tourism destination in an emerging market

Purpose: Although the branding literature emerged during the 1940s, research relating to tourism destination branding has only gained momentum since the late 1990s. There remains a lack of theory in particular that addresses the measurement of the effectiveness of destination branding over time. The purpose of the research was to test the effectiveness of a model of consumer-based brand equity (CBBE) for a country destination.---------- Design/methodology: A model of consumer-based brand equity was adapted from the marketing literature and applied to a nation context. The model was tested by using structural equation modelling with data from a large Chilean sample (n=845), comprising a mix of previous visitors and non-visitors. The model fits the data well. Findings: This paper reports the results of an investigation into brand equity for Australia as a long haul destination in an emerging market. The research took place just before the launch of the nation’s fourth new brand campaign in six years. The results indicate Australia is a well known but not compelling destination brand for tourists in Chile, which reflects the lower priority the South American market has been given by the national tourism office (NTO).---------- Practical implications: It is suggested that CBBE measures could be analysed at various points in time to track any strengthening or weakening of market perceptions in relation to brand objectives. A standard CBBE instrument could provide long-term effectiveness performance measures regardless of changes in destination marketing organisation (DMO) staff, advertising agency, other stakeholders, and budget.---------- Originality/value: This study contributes to the nation-branding literature by being one of the first to test the efficacy of a model of consumer-based brand equity for a tourism destination brand.

Forecasting time-varying value-at-risk

In this thesis we are interested in financial risk and the instrument we want to use is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR is the maximum loss over a given period of time at a given confidence level. Many definitions of VaR exist and some will be introduced throughout this thesis. There two main ways to measure risk and VaR: through volatility and through percentiles. Large volatility in financial returns implies greater probability of large losses, but also larger probability of large profits. Percentiles describe tail behaviour. The estimation of VaR is a complex task. It is important to know the main characteristics of financial data to choose the best model. The existing literature is very wide, maybe controversial, but helpful in drawing a picture of the problem. It is commonly recognised that financial data are characterised by heavy tails, time-varying volatility, asymmetric response to bad and good news, and skewness. Ignoring any of these features can lead to underestimating VaR with a possible ultimate consequence being the default of the protagonist (firm, bank or investor). In recent years, skewness has attracted special attention. An open problem is the detection and modelling of time-varying skewness. Is skewness constant or there is some significant variability which in turn can affect the estimation of VaR? This thesis aims to answer this question and to open the way to a new approach to model simultaneously time-varying volatility (conditional variance) and skewness. The new tools are modifications of the Generalised Lambda Distributions (GLDs). They are four-parameter distributions, which allow the first four moments to be modelled nearly independently: in particular we are interested in what we will call para-moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. The GLDs will be used in two different ways. Firstly, semi-parametrically, we consider a moving window to estimate the parameters and calculate the percentiles of the GLDs. Secondly, parametrically, we attempt to extend the GLDs to include time-varying dependence in the parameters. We used the local linear regression to estimate semi-parametrically conditional mean and conditional variance. The method is not efficient enough to capture all the dependence structure in the three indices —ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30—, however it provides an idea of the DGP underlying the process and helps choosing a good technique to model the data. We find that GLDs suggest that moments up to the fourth order do not always exist, there existence appears to vary over time. This is a very important finding, considering that past papers (see for example Bali et al., 2008; Hashmi and Tay, 2007; Lanne and Pentti, 2007) modelled time-varying skewness, implicitly assuming the existence of the third moment. However, the GLDs suggest that mean, variance, skewness and in general the conditional distribution vary over time, as already suggested by the existing literature. The GLDs give good results in estimating VaR on three real indices, ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30, with results very similar to the results provided by historical simulation.

Bahrain skills gaps study : tourism, construction, and education skills plans

The tourism, construction, and education plans and skills strategies (embedded in project reports) were developed as part of a nation-wide comprehensive research project covering current, emerging and future skills deficiencies and requirements in Bahrain’s labour market. The research covered the majority of economic sectors and activities in the Kingdom and will serve as a basis for formulating industry and occupational outlooks as well as career guidance and awareness activities by academic and training institutions across Bahrain. It will provides foundation work for industry skills councils in order to conduct and achieve a uniform system of occupational standards across industries, occupations and job levels.

Forecasting crashes at the planning level: Simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona

At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

Impacts and opportunities : resident's view on sustainable development of tourism in regional Queensland, Australia

Tourism development is a priority for rural and regional areas of Australia. The challenge is how to develop the tourism industry in a sustainable manner. As part of a larger project investigating community perceptions of opportunities, strategies and challenges in regional sustainable development, this article explores participant's views and opinions of tourism development. Through purposive sampling, 28 local community leaders and residents in the Darling Downs region in Queensland, Australia, participated in four semi-structured focus groups. This paper focuses on two of these focus groups, where tourism was a critical issue. Participants were generally positive about the tourism industry and its impacts on their community, although they expressed several triple bottom line concerns about economic, environmental and scoial issues. Four key themes emerged: appropriate land use management, limited resources and ageing/insufficient infrastructure, preservaation of community heritage and lifestyle, and regional conflict. Residents supported sustainable tourism development and wanted to be more actively involved in decision-making, demanding greater transparency - and true engagement - from local government.

Creative, culture tourism and place-making : Istanbul and London film industries

During the last decade many cities have sought to promote creativity by encouraging creative industries as drivers for economic and spatial growth. Among the creative industries, film industry play an important role in establishing high level of success in economic and spatial development of cities by fostering endogenous creativeness, attracting exogenous talent, and contributing to the formation of places that creative cities require. The paper aims to scrutinize the role of creative industries in general and the film industry in particular for place making, spatial development, tourism, and the formation of creative cities, their clustering and locational decisions. This paper investigates the positive effects of the film industry on tourism such as incubating creativity potential, increasing place recognition through locations of movies filmed and film festivals hosted, attracting visitors and establishing interaction among visitors, places and their cultures. This paper reveals the preliminary findings of two case studies from Beyoglu, Istanbul and Soho, London, examines the relation between creativity, tourism, culture and the film industry, and discusses their effects on place-making and tourism.

Forecasting negative effects of monotony and sensation seeking on performance during a vigilance task

The driving task requires sustained attention during prolonged periods, and can be performed in highly predictable or repetitive environments. Such conditions could create hypovigilance and impair performance towards critical events. Identifying such impairment in monotonous conditions has been a major subject of research, but no research to date has attempted to predict it in real-time. This pilot study aims to show that performance decrements due to monotonous tasks can be predicted through mathematical modelling taking into account sensation seeking levels. A short vigilance task sensitive to short periods of lapses of vigilance called Sustained Attention to Response Task is used to assess participants‟ performance. The framework for prediction developed on this task could be extended to a monotonous driving task. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is proposed to predict participants‟ lapses in alertness. Driver‟s vigilance evolution is modelled as a hidden state and is correlated to a surrogate measure: the participant‟s reactions time. This experiment shows that the monotony of the task can lead to an important decline in performance in less than five minutes. This impairment can be predicted four minutes in advance with an 86% accuracy using HMMs. This experiment showed that mathematical models such as HMM can efficiently predict hypovigilance through surrogate measures. The presented model could result in the development of an in-vehicle device that detects driver hypovigilance in advance and warn the driver accordingly, thus offering the potential to enhance road safety and prevent road crashes.