Textual communication in Virtual Environments for real world interaction

Ever since man invented writing he has used text to store and distribute his thoughts. With the advent of computers and the Internet the delivery of these messages has become almost instant. Textual conversations can now be had regardless of location or distance. Advances in computational power for 3D graphics are enabling Virtual Environments(VE) within which users can become increasingly more immersed. By opening these environments to other users such as initially through sharing these text conversations channels, we aim to extend the immersed experience into an online virtual community. This paper examines work that brings textual communications into the VE, enabling interaction between the real and virtual worlds.

Connecting climate model projections of global temperature change with the real world

Current state-of-the-art global climate models produce different values for Earth’s mean temperature. When comparing simulations with each other and with observations it is standard practice to compare temperature anomalies with respect to a reference period. It is not always appreciated that the choice of reference period can affect conclusions, both about the skill of simulations of past climate, and about the magnitude of expected future changes in climate. For example, observed global temperatures over the past decade are towards the lower end of the range of CMIP5 simulations irrespective of what reference period is used, but exactly where they lie in the model distribution varies with the choice of reference period. Additionally, we demonstrate that projections of when particular temperature levels are reached, for example 2K above ‘pre-industrial’, change by up to a decade depending on the choice of reference period. In this article we discuss some of the key issues that arise when using anomalies relative to a reference period to generate climate projections. We highlight that there is no perfect choice of reference period. When evaluating models against observations, a long reference period should generally be used, but how long depends on the quality of the observations available. The IPCC AR5 choice to use a 1986-2005 reference period for future global temperature projections was reasonable, but a case-by-case approach is needed for different purposes and when assessing projections of different climate variables. Finally, we recommend that any studies that involve the use of a reference period should explicitly examine the robustness of the conclusions to alternative choices.

Boots on the Ground: At 40, growing Environmental Studies Program equips students to tackle real-world problems

Now 40, Colby’s Environmental Studies Program is growing exponentially, equipping students to tackle real-world problems.

Estimating Relative Risk Aversion, Risk-Neutral and Real-World Densities using Brazilian Real Currency Options

Building Risk-Neutral Densities (RND) from options data can provide market-implied expectations about the future behavior of a financial variable. And market expectations on financial variables may influence macroeconomic policy decisions. It can be useful also for corporate and financial institutions decision making. This paper uses the Liu et all (2007) approach to estimate the option-implied Risk-neutral densities from the Brazilian Real/US Dollar exchange rate distribution. We then compare the RND with actual exchange rates, on a monthly basis, in order to estimate the relative risk-aversion of investors and also obtain a Real-world density for the exchange rate. We are the first to calculate relative risk-aversion and the option-implied Real World Density for an emerging market currency. Our empirical application uses a sample of Brazilian Real/US Dollar options traded at BM&F-Bovespa from 1999 to 2011. The RND is estimated using a Mixture of Two Log-Normals distribution and then the real-world density is obtained by means of the Liu et al. (2007) parametric risktransformations. The relative risk aversion is calculated for the full sample. Our estimated value of the relative risk aversion parameter is around 2.7, which is in line with other articles that have estimated this parameter for the Brazilian Economy, such as Araújo (2005) and Issler and Piqueira (2000). Our out-of-sample evaluation results showed that the RND has some ability to forecast the Brazilian Real exchange rate. Abe et all (2007) found also mixed results in the out-of-sample analysis of the RND forecast ability for exchange rate options. However, when we incorporate the risk aversion into RND in order to obtain a Real-world density, the out-of-sample performance improves substantially, with satisfactory results in both Kolmogorov and Berkowitz tests. Therefore, we would suggest not using the “pure” RND, but rather taking into account risk aversion in order to forecast the Brazilian Real exchange rate.

Are real options a real option for real-world finance professionals? case study : the application of real options to evaluate investment projects in the latin american oil and gas field services industry

Brasil e outros mercados emergentes continuarão a apresentar muitas oportunidades de investimento nos próximos anos. Profissionais financeiros que gerenciam os processos de orçamento de capital nas empresas terão grandes desafios a enfrentar. Características específicas destes projetos como preços ligados a commodities (por exemplo: petróleo e gás e projetos agrícolas) e as incertezas habituais relacionadas com os mercados emergentes são desafios adicionais. Neste cenário, ferramentas mais sofisticadas de orçamento de capital como Opções Reais, oferece uma teoria mais robusta para lidar com incerteza, flexibilidade gerencial, e os resultados voláteis embutidas nestas oportunidades. A teoria de Opções Reais assume que o envolvimento dos gestores nos projetos gera valor à medida que potencializam os bons resultados ou reduzem as perdas por abandonar projetos com maus resultados. O objetivo principal desta pesquisa foi aplicar a análise de Opções Reais para um projeto de investimento e discutir o processo e os resultados da metodologia. O estudo de caso analisa retroativamente um projeto de investimento na Colômbia e compara os resultados sob o tradicional VPL e Opções Reais. As técnicas de avaliação foram realizadas como se estivessem sendo aplicadas no momento em que o projeto foi aprovado, e depois comparadas com o desempenho real do projeto. O estudo de caso avaliado possui dois tipos de Opções Reais: primeiro, o efeito de uma opção para cancelar um contrato que é analisado a partir da perspectiva do cliente que pode exercer essa opção, e o segundo, a opção de abandonar e adiar a partir da perspectiva da empresa que irá executar a investimento.

Reinventing development: utopias devised by committees and seeds of change in the real world

Includes bibliography

Optimized Duration of Clopidogrel Therapy Following Treatment with the Endeavor Zotarolimus-Eluting Stent in Real-World Clinical Practice (OPTIMIZE) Trial: Rationale and design of a large-scale, randomized, multicenter study

Background Current recommendations for antithrombotic therapy after drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation include prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) with aspirin and clopidogrel >= 12 months. However, the impact of such a regimen for all patients receiving any DES system remains unclear based on scientific evidence available to date. Also, several other shortcomings have been identified with prolonged DAPT, including bleeding complications, compliance, and cost. The second-generation Endeavor zotarolimus-eluting stent (E-ZES) has demonstrated efficacy and safety, despite short duration DAPT (3 months) in the majority of studies. Still, the safety and clinical impact of short-term DAPT with E-ZES in the real world is yet to be determined. Methods The OPTIMIZE trial is a large, prospective, multicenter, randomized (1: 1) non-inferiority clinical evaluation of short-term (3 months) vs long-term (12-months) DAPT in patients undergoing E-ZES implantation in daily clinical practice. Overall, 3,120 patients were enrolled at 33 clinical sites in Brazil. The primary composite endpoint is death (any cause), myocardial infarction, cerebral vascular accident, and major bleeding at 12-month clinical follow-up post-index procedure. Conclusions The OPTIMIZE clinical trial will determine the clinical implications of DAPT duration with the second generation E-ZES in real-world patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. (Am Heart J 2012;164:810-816.e3.)

Models and Algorihtm for the Optimization of Real-World Routing and Logistics Problems

Logistics involves planning, managing, and organizing the flows of goods from the point of origin to the point of destination in order to meet some requirements. Logistics and transportation aspects are very important and represent a relevant costs for producing and shipping companies, but also for public administration and private citizens. The optimization of resources and the improvement in the organization of operations is crucial for all branches of logistics, from the operation management to the transportation. As we will have the chance to see in this work, optimization techniques, models, and algorithms represent important methods to solve the always new and more complex problems arising in different segments of logistics. Many operation management and transportation problems are related to the optimization class of problems called Vehicle Routing Problems (VRPs). In this work, we consider several real-world deterministic and stochastic problems that are included in the wide class of the VRPs, and we solve them by means of exact and heuristic methods. We treat three classes of real-world routing and logistics problems. We deal with one of the most important tactical problems that arises in the managing of the bike sharing systems, that is the Bike sharing Rebalancing Problem (BRP). We propose models and algorithms for real-world earthwork optimization problems. We describe the 3DP process and we highlight several optimization issues in 3DP. Among those, we define the problem related to the tool path definition in the 3DP process, the 3D Routing Problem (3DRP), which is a generalization of the arc routing problem. We present an ILP model and several heuristic algorithms to solve the 3DRP.

Secondary collisions revisited: real-world crash data and relationship to crash test criteria

Objectives: Previous research conducted in the late 1980s suggested that vehicle impacts following an initial barrier collision increase severe occupant injury risk. Now over 25years old, the data are no longer representative of the currently installed barriers or the present US vehicle fleet. The purpose of this study is to provide a present-day assessment of secondary collisions and to determine if current full-scale barrier crash testing criteria provide an indication of secondary collision risk for real-world barrier crashes. Methods: To characterize secondary collisions, 1,363 (596,331 weighted) real-world barrier midsection impacts selected from 13years (1997-2009) of in-depth crash data available through the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) / Crashworthiness Data System (CDS) were analyzed. Scene diagram and available scene photographs were used to determine roadside and barrier specific variables unavailable in NASS/CDS. Binary logistic regression models were developed for second event occurrence and resulting driver injury. To investigate current secondary collision crash test criteria, 24 full-scale crash test reports were obtained for common non-proprietary US barriers, and the risk of secondary collisions was determined using recommended evaluation criteria from National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 350. Results: Secondary collisions were found to occur in approximately two thirds of crashes where a barrier is the first object struck. Barrier lateral stiffness, post-impact vehicle trajectory, vehicle type, and pre-impact tracking conditions were found to be statistically significant contributors to secondary event occurrence. The presence of a second event was found to increase the likelihood of a serious driver injury by a factor of 7 compared to cases with no second event present. The NCHRP Report 350 exit angle criterion was found to underestimate the risk of secondary collisions in real-world barrier crashes. Conclusions: Consistent with previous research, collisions following a barrier impact are not an infrequent event and substantially increase driver injury risk. The results suggest that using exit-angle based crash test criteria alone to assess secondary collision risk is not sufficient to predict second collision occurrence for real-world barrier crashes.

Real-World Performance of Longitudinal Barriers Struck by Large Trucks

Outside of relatively limited crash testing with large trucks, very little is known regarding the performance of traffic barriers subjected to real-world large truck impacts. The purpose of this study was to investigate real-world large truck impacts into traffic barriers to determine barrier crash involvement rates, the impact performance of barriers not specifically designed to redirect large trucks, and the real-world performance of large-truck-specific barriers. Data sources included the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (2000-2009), the General Estimates System (2000-2009) and 155 in-depth large truck-to-barrier crashes from the Large Truck Crash Causation Study. Large truck impacts with a longitudinal barrier were found to comprise 3 percent of all police-reported longitudinal barrier impacts and roughly the same proportion of barrier fatalities. Based on a logistic regression model predicting barrier penetration, large truck barrier penetration risk was found to increase by a factor of 6 for impacts with barriers designed primarily for passenger vehicles. Although large-truck-specific barriers were found to perform better than non-heavy vehicle specific barriers, the penetration rate of these barriers were found to be 17 percent. This penetration rate is especially a concern because the higher test level barriers are designed to protect other road users, not the occupants of the large truck. Surprisingly, barriers not specifically designed for large truck impacts were found to prevent large truck penetration approximately half of the time. This suggests that adding costlier higher test level barriers may not always be warranted, especially on roadways with lower truck volumes.

Wild immunology: converging on the real world

Recently, the Centre for Immunity, Infection and Evolution sponsored a one-day symposium entitled "Wild Immunology." The CIIE is a new Wellcome Trust-funded initiative with the remit to connect evolutionary biology and ecology with research in immunology and infectious diseases in order to gain an interdisciplinary perspective on challenges to global health. The central question of the symposium was, "Why should we try to understand infection and immunity in wild systems?" Specifically, how does the immune response operate in the wild and how do multiple coinfections and commensalism affect immune responses and host health in these wild systems? The symposium brought together a broad program of speakers, ranging from laboratory immunologists to infectious disease ecologists, working on wild birds, unmanaged animals, wild and laboratory rodents, and on questions ranging from the dynamics of coinfection to how commensal bacteria affect the development of the immune system. The meeting on wild immunology, organized by Amy Pedersen, Simon Babayan, and Rick Maizels, was held at the University of Edinburgh on 30 June 2011.