Fitting of Mixtures with Unspecified Number of Components Using Cross Validation Distance Estimate

Estimation of the number of mixture components (k) is an unsolved problem. Available methods for estimation of k include bootstrapping the likelihood ratio test statistics and optimizing a variety of validity functionals such as AIC, BIC/MDL, and ICOMP. We investigate the minimization of distance between fitted mixture model and the true density as a method for estimating k. The distances considered are Kullback-Leibler (KL) and “L sub 2”. We estimate these distances using cross validation. A reliable estimate of k is obtained by voting of B estimates of k corresponding to B cross validation estimates of distance. This estimation methods with KL distance is very similar to Monte Carlo cross validated likelihood methods discussed by Smyth (2000). With focus on univariate normal mixtures, we present simulation studies that compare the cross validated distance method with AIC, BIC/MDL, and ICOMP. We also apply the cross validation estimate of distance approach along with AIC, BIC/MDL and ICOMP approach, to data from an osteoporosis drug trial in order to find groups that differentially respond to treatment.

Locally Efficient Estimation in Censored Data Models: Theory and Examples

In many applications the observed data can be viewed as a censored high dimensional full data random variable X. By the curve of dimensionality it is typically not possible to construct estimators that are asymptotically efficient at every probability distribution in a semiparametric censored data model of such a high dimensional censored data structure. We provide a general method for construction of one-step estimators that are efficient at a chosen submodel of the full-data model, are still well behaved off this submodel and can be chosen to always improve on a given initial estimator. These one-step estimators rely on good estimators of the censoring mechanism and thus will require a parametric or semiparametric model for the censoring mechanism. We present a general theorem that provides a template for proving the desired asymptotic results. We illustrate the general one-step estimation methods by constructing locally efficient one-step estimators of marginal distributions and regression parameters with right-censored data, current status data and bivariate right-censored data, in all models allowing the presence of time-dependent covariates. The conditions of the asymptotics theorem are rigorously verified in one of the examples and the key condition of the general theorem is verified for all examples.

Proving Efficiency of NPMLE and Identities

A method is given for proving efficiency of NPMLE directly linked to empirical process theory. The conditions in general are appropriate consistency of the NPMLE, differentiability of the model, differentiability of the parameter of interest, local convexity of the parameter space, and a Donsker class condition for the class of efficient influence functions obtained by varying the parameters. For the case that the model is linear in the parameter and the parameter space is convex, as with most nonparametric missing data models, we show that the method leads to an identity for the NPMLE which almost says that the NPMLE is efficient and provides us straightforwardly with a consistency and efficiency proof. This identify is extended to an almost linear class of models which contain biased sampling models. To illustrate, the method is applied to the univariate censoring model, random truncation models, interval censoring case I model, the class of parametric models and to a class of semiparametric models.

Serological evidence for the association of Bartonella henselae infection with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy

BACKGROUND: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is an important cause of sudden death in young adults. On the basis of histopathological findings its pathogenesis may involve both a genetic origin and an inflammatory process. Bartonella henselae may cause endomyocarditis and was detected in myocardium from a young male who succumbed to sudden cardiac death. HYPOTHESIS: We hypothesized that chronic infection with Bartonella henselae could contribute to the pathogenesis of ARVC. METHODS: We investigated sera from 49 patients with ARVC for IgG antibodies to Bartonella henselae. In this study, 58 Swiss blood donors tested by the same method served as controls. RESULTS: Six patients with ARVC (12%) had positive (>1:256) IgG titres in the immunofluorescence test with Bartonella henselae. In contrast, only 1 elevated titre was found in 58 controls (p < or = 0.05). Interestingly, all patients with increased titres had no familial occurrence of ARVC. CONCLUSIONS: Further studies in larger patient cohorts seem justified to investigate a possible causal link between chronic Bartonella henselae and ARVC, in particular its sporadic (nonfamilial) form.

Koproduktion von Wissen in der Entwicklung des Biolandbaus - Einflüsse von Marginalisierung, Anerkennung und Markt

The empirical analysis of the historical development of transdisciplinary co-production of knowledge (CPK) in organic agriculture (OA) in Switzerland has revealed three distinct phases. The initial phase shows various characteristics of transdisciplinary CPK and a high importance of experiential knowledge. The 2nd and 3rd phases involve an in-creasing segregation of farmers’, extension agents’, and scientists’ knowledge, caused by internal and external impacts, i.e. foundation of independent research institutions, changes in agriculture policy, and new market strategies. These developments strikingly represent an ambiguous trend: the growing societal and political recognition of OA and the increasing market, which are positive achievements, are associated by a gradual loss of very precious forms of CPK. A successful re-establishment of CPK processes and re-integration of experiential knowledge would help to resolve this dilemma and thus improve future research in OA and sustainability research in general.

Die Inszenierung der Bilder Ephemere Architekturen bei Thomas Demand

In den Arbeiten des Künstlers Thomas Demand sind das Ephemere und das Architektonische eng verzahnt: er baut aufwendige Außen- und Innenräume aus Papier, die ihren temporären Charakter durch materialbedingte Fragilität beweisen, vor allem aber durch die Entscheidung, sie nach der finalen photographischen Aufnahme zu zerstören. Das Ephemere reicht aber auch in die Inszenierung der Bilder bei Ausstellungen hinein. Was als Paragone zwischen der Museumsarchitektur eines Jean Nouvel, Peter Zumthor, Mies van der Rohe und der auszustellenden Kunst beginnt, entwickelt sich zum monumentalen Gesamtkunstwerk, bei dem sich zwischen vorhandener Architektur, Ausstellungsarchitektur und Bildern durch Zitat und mimetischen Eingriff vielfältige Dialoge, aber auch Spannungen ergeben.

International palliative care experts' view on phenomena indicating the last hours and days of life

BACKGROUND Providing the highest quality care for dying patients should be a core clinical proficiency and an integral part of comprehensive management, as fundamental as diagnosis and treatment. The aim of this study was to provide expert consensus on phenomena for identification and prediction of the last hours or days of a patient's life. This study is part of the OPCARE9 project, funded by the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme. METHOD The phenomena associated with approaching death were generated using Delphi technique. The Delphi process was set up in three cycles to collate a set of useful and relevant phenomena that identify and predict the last hours and days of life. Each cycle included: (1) development of the questionnaire, (2) distribution of the Delphi questionnaire and (3) review and synthesis of findings. RESULTS The first Delphi cycle of 252 participants (health care professionals, volunteers, public) generated 194 different phenomena, perceptions and observations. In the second cycle, these phenomena were checked for their specific ability to diagnose the last hours/days of life. Fifty-eight phenomena achieved more than 80% expert consensus and were grouped into nine categories. In the third cycle, these 58 phenomena were ranked by a group of palliative care experts (78 professionals, including physicians, nurses, psycho-social-spiritual support; response rate 72%, see Table 1) in terms of clinical relevance to the prediction that a person will die within the next few hours/days. Twenty-one phenomena were determined to have "high relevance" by more than 50% of the experts. Based on these findings, the changes in the following categories (each consisting of up to three phenomena) were considered highly relevant to clinicians in identifying and predicting a patient's last hours/days of life: "breathing", "general deterioration", "consciousness/cognition", "skin", "intake of fluid, food, others", "emotional state" and "non-observations/expressed opinions/other". CONCLUSION Experts from different professional backgrounds identified a set of categories describing a structure within which clinical phenomena can be clinically assessed, in order to more accurately predict whether someone will die within the next days or hours. However, these phenomena need further specification for clinical use.

Clinical parameters associated with collateral development in patients with chronic total coronary occlusion

OBJECTIVE Well-developed collaterals provide survival benefit in patients with obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). Therefore, in this study we sought to determine which clinical variables are associated with arteriogenesis. DESIGN Clinical and laboratory variables were collected before percutaneous coronary intervention. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine which variables are associated with the collateral flow index (CFI). PATIENTS Data from 295 chronic total occlusion (CTO) patients (Bern, Switzerland, Amsterdam, the Netherlands and Jena, Germany) were pooled. In earlier studies, patients had varying degrees of stenosis. Therefore, different stages of development of the collaterals were used. In our study, a unique group of patients with CTO was analysed. INTERVENTIONS Instead of angiography used earlier, we used a more accurate method to determine CFI using intracoronary pressure measurements. CFI was calculated from the occlusive pressure distal of the coronary lesion, the aortic pressure and central venous pressure. RESULTS The mean CFI was 0.39 ± 0.14. After multivariate analysis, β blockers, hypertension and angina pectoris duration were positively associated with CFI (B: correlation coefficient β=0.07, SE=0.03, p=0.02, B=0.040, SE=0.02, p=0.042 and B=0.001, SE=0.000, p=0.02). Furthermore also after multivariate analysis, high serum leucocytes, prior myocardial infarction and high diastolic blood pressure were negatively associated with CFI (B=-0.01, SE=0.005, p=0.03, B=-0.04, SE=0.02, p=0.03 and B=-0.002, SE=0.001, p=0.011). CONCLUSIONS In this unique cohort, high serum leucocytes and high diastolic blood pressure are associated with poorly developed collaterals. Interestingly, the use of β blockers is associated with well-developed collaterals, shedding new light on the potential action mode of this drug in patients with CAD.

Estimating Annual CO2 Flux for Lutjewad Station Using Three Different Gap-Filling Techniques

Long-term measurements of CO2 flux can be obtained using the eddy covariance technique, but these datasets are affected by gaps which hinder the estimation of robust long-term means and annual ecosystem exchanges. We compare results obtained using three gap-fill techniques: multiple regression (MR), multiple imputation (MI), and artificial neural networks (ANNs), applied to a one-year dataset of hourly CO2 flux measurements collected in Lutjewad, over a flat agriculture area near the Wadden Sea dike in the north of the Netherlands. The dataset was separated in two subsets: a learning and a validation set. The performances of gap-filling techniques were analysed by calculating statistical criteria: coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), maximum absolute error (MaxAE), and mean square bias (MSB). The gap-fill accuracy is seasonally dependent, with better results in cold seasons. The highest accuracy is obtained using ANN technique which is also less sensitive to environmental/seasonal conditions. We argue that filling gaps directly on measured CO2 fluxes is more advantageous than the common method of filling gaps on calculated net ecosystem change, because ANN is an empirical method and smaller scatter is expected when gap filling is applied directly to measurements.

Net CO 2 surface emissions at Bern, Switzerland inferred from ambient observations of CO 2 , δ(O 2 /N 2 ), and 222 Rn using a customized radon tracer inversion

The 222Radon tracer method is a powerful tool to estimate local and regional surface emissions of, e.g., greenhouse gases. In this paper we demonstrate that in practice, the method as it is commonly used, produces inaccurate results in case of nonhomogeneously spread emission sources, and we propose a different approach to account for this. We have applied the new methodology to ambient observations of CO2 and 222Radon to estimate CO2 surface emissions for the city of Bern, Switzerland. Furthermore, by utilizing combined measurements of CO2 and δ(O2/N2) we obtain valuable information about the spatial and temporal variability of the main emission sources. Mean net CO2 emissions based on 2 years of observations are estimated at (11.2 ± 2.9) kt km−2 a−1. Oxidative ratios indicate a significant influence from the regional biosphere in summer/spring and fossil fuel combustion processes in winter/autumn. Our data indicate that the emissions from fossil fuels are, to a large degree, related to the combustion of natural gas which is used for heating purposes.

Calculation of crystal optical properties from molecular electron density

We have recently developed a method to obtain distributed atomic polarizabilities adopting a partitioning of the molecular electron density (for example, the Quantum Theory of Atoms in Molecules, [1]), calculated with or without an applied electric field. The procedure [2] allows to obtained atomic polarizability tensors, which are perfectly exportable, because quite representative of an atom in a given functional group. Among the many applications of this idea, the calculation of crystal susceptibility is easily available, either from a rough estimation (the polarizability of the isolated molecule is used) or from a more precise estimation (the polarizability of a molecule embedded in a cluster representing the first coordination sphere is used). Lorentz factor is applied to include the long range effect of packing, which is enhancing the molecular polarizability. Simple properties like linear refractive index or the gyration tensor can be calculated at relatively low costs and with good precision. This approach is particularly useful within the field of crystal engineering of organic/organometallic materials, because it would allow a relatively easy prediction of a property as a function of the packing, thus allowing "reverse crystal engineering". Examples of some amino acid crystals and salts of amino acids [3] will be illustrated, together with other crystallographic or non-crystallographic applications. For example, the induction and dispersion energies of intermolecular interactions could be calculated with superior precision (allowing anisotropic van der Waals interactions). This could allow revision of some commonly misunderstood intermolecular interactions, like the halogen bonding (see for example the recent remarks by Stone or Gilli [4]). Moreover, the chemical reactivity of coordination complexes could be reinvestigated, by coupling the conventional analysis of the electrostatic potential (useful only in the circumstances of hard nucleophilic/electrophilic interaction) with the distributed atomic polarizability. The enhanced reactivity of coordinated organic ligands would be better appreciated. [1] R. F. W. Bader, Atoms in Molecules: A Quantum Theory. Oxford Univ. Press, 1990. [2] A. Krawczuk-Pantula, D. Pérez, K. Stadnicka, P. Macchi, Trans. Amer. Cryst. Ass. 2011, 1-25 [3] A. S. Chimpri1, M. Gryl, L. H.R. Dos Santos1, A. Krawczuk, P. Macchi Crystal Growth & Design, in the press. [4] a) A. J. Stone, J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2013, 135, 7005−7009; b) V. Bertolasi, P. Gilli, G. Gilli Crystal Growth & Design, 2013, 12, 4758-4770.

Can the carbon isotopic composition of methane be reconstructed from multi-site firn air measurements?

Methane is a strong greenhouse gas and large uncertainties exist concerning the future evolution of its atmospheric abundance. Analyzing methane atmospheric mixing and stable isotope ratios in air trapped in polar ice sheets helps in reconstructing the evolution of its sources and sinks in the past. This is important to improve predictions of atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios in the future under the influence of a changing climate. The aim of this study is to assess whether past atmospheric δ13C(CH4) variations can be reliably reconstructed from firn air measurements. Isotope reconstructions obtained with a state of the art firn model from different individual sites show unexpectedly large discrepancies and are mutually inconsistent. We show that small changes in the diffusivity profiles at individual sites lead to strong differences in the firn fractionation, which can explain a large part of these discrepancies. Using slightly modified diffusivities for some sites, and neglecting samples for which the firn fractionation signals are strongest, a combined multi-site inversion can be performed, which returns an isotope reconstruction that is consistent with firn data. However, the isotope trends are lower than what has been concluded from Southern Hemisphere (SH) archived air samples and high-accumulation ice core data. We conclude that with the current datasets and understanding of firn air transport, a high precision reconstruction of δ13C of CH4 from firn air samples is not possible, because reconstructed atmospheric trends over the last 50 yr of 0.3–1.5 ‰ are of the same magnitude as inherent uncertainties in the method, which are the firn fractionation correction (up to ~2 ‰ at individual sites), the Kr isobaric interference (up to ~0.8 ‰, system dependent), inter-laboratory calibration offsets (~0.2 ‰) and uncertainties in past CH4 levels (~0.5 ‰).

On the interference of Kr during carbon isotope analysis of methane using continuous-flow combustion–isotope ratio mass spectrometry

Stable carbon isotope analysis of methane (delta C-13 of CH4) on atmospheric samples is one key method to constrain the current and past atmospheric CH4 budget. A frequently applied measurement technique is gas chromatography (GC) isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) coupled to a combustion-preconcentration unit. This report shows that the atmospheric trace gas krypton (Kr) can severely interfere during the mass spectrometric measurement, leading to significant biases in delta C-13 of CH4, if krypton is not sufficiently separated during the analysis. According to our experiments, the krypton interference is likely composed of two individual effects, with the lateral tailing of the doubly charged Kr-86 peak affecting the neighbouring m/z 44 and partially the m/z 45 Faraday cups. Additionally, a broad signal affecting m/z 45 and especially m/z 46 is assumed to result from scattered ions of singly charged krypton. The introduced bias in the measured isotope ratios is dependent on the chromatographic separation, the krypton-to-CH4 mixing ratio in the sample, the focusing of the mass spectrometer as well as the detector configuration and can amount to up to several per mil in delta C-13. Apart from technical solutions to avoid this interference, we present correction routines to a posteriori remove the bias.

Sportmotorische Leistungsfähigkeit und schulische Leistung – Zum mediierenden Effekt der exekutiven Funktionen

Introduction: Die sportmotorische Leistungsfähigkeit (SMLF) hängt nicht nur positiv mit der körperlichen Gesundheit zusammen, sondern gilt auch als Prädiktor für die schulische Leistung (SL) (van der Niet, Hartmann, Smith, & Visscher, 2014). Um die Frage zu beantworten, wie denn zwei auf den ersten Blick so distale Merkmale zusammenhängen sollen, werden unterschiedliche erklärende Variablen diskutiert, wobei die kognitive Stimulationshypothese die exekutiven Funktionen (EF) als mediierende Variable im Zusammenhang zwischen SMLF und SL postuliert. Die Annahme hierbei ist, dass die mit komplexen motorischen Kontrollprozessen einhergehende kognitive Beanspruchung bei einem wiederholten Ausführen von nicht-automatisierten sportbezogenen Handlungen zu einer Aktivierung und somit Förderung der EF führt (Best, 2010). EF, verstanden als höhere kognitive Prozesse, die ein zielorientiertes und situationsangepasstes Handeln erlauben, sind für den schulischen Erfolg von zentraler Bedeutung und gleichzeitig wichtige Prädiktoren der SL (Diamond, 2013). Obwohl diese Mediation seit einigen Jahren in der Literatur diskutiert wird, wurde sie bis heute noch nicht mit Hilfe längsschnittlicher Daten geprüft. Daher wird im Folgenden der mediierende Effekt der EF im Zusammenhang zwischen SMLF und SL getestet. Methods: Im Rahmen der Studie Sport und Kognition 5.0 wurden insgesamt 237 Primarschulkinder (52.3% ♀; 11.31 ± 0.62 Jahre) zu drei Messzeitpunkten in ihrer SMLF (T1) und ihren EF (T2) getestet. Zusätzlich wurde die SL (T3) mittels objektiver Schulleistungstests (Mathematik und Deutsch) erhoben. Um die Hauptfragestellung zu prüfen, ob die SL vorwiegend mediiert über die EF durch die SMLF vorhergesagt werden kann, wurde eine bootstrapping-basierte Mediationsanalyse in AMOS 22 durchgeführt. Results: Das theoretisch abgeleitete Strukturgleichungsmodell (2 (22, N = 237) = 30.357, p = .110; CFI = .978) weist eine zufriedenstellende Anpassungsgüte auf. Erwartungsgemäss zerfällt der Zusammenhang innerhalb des Mediationsmodells zwischen der SMLF und der SL, alsbald die EF ins Modell aufgenommen werden (β = .16, p = .634). Sowohl der Zusammenhang zwischen der SMLF und den EF (β = .38, p = .039), als auch der Zusammenhang zwischen den EF und der SL fallen signifikant aus (β = .91, p = .001) und ergeben dabei eine volle Mediation über den indirekten (p = .021) und totalen Effekt (p = .001). Discussion/Conclusion: Die erstmals vorliegenden längsschnittlichen Daten bestätigen den Zusammenhang zwischen SMLF und SL bei einer Mediation über die EF und decken sich mit den, aus einem querschnittlichen Design stammenden, Befunden von van der Niet et al. (2014). Zur Steigerung der schulischen Leistung sollten zukünftige Schulsportinterventionen die SMLF von Kindern erhöhen und dabei die EF bei der Auswahl von sportlichen Aufgaben mitberücksichtigen. References: Best, J. R. (2010). Effects of physical activity on children’s executive function: Contributions of experimental research on aerobic exercise. Developmental Review, 30, 331-351. Diamond, A. (2013). Executive functions. Annual Review of Psychology, 64, 135-168. van der Niet, A. G., Hartmann, E., Smith, J. & Visscher, C. (2014). Modeling relationships between physical fitness, executive functioning, and academic achievement in primary school children. Psychology of Sport & Exercise, 15(4), 319-325.