909 resultados para uncertain volatility


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Background Epidural block is widely used to manage major abdominal surgery and postoperative analgesia, but its risks. and benefits are uncertain. We compared adverse outcomes in high-risk patients managed for major surgery with epidural block or alternative analgesic regimens with general anaesthesia in a multicentre randomised trial. Methods 915 patients undergoing major abdominal surgery with one of nine defined comorbid states to identify high-risk status were randomly assigned intraoperative epidural anaesthesia and postoperative epidural analgesia for 72 h with general anaesthesia (site of epidural selected to provide optimum block) or control. The primary endpoint was death at 30 days or major postsurgical morbidity. Analysis by intention to treat involved 447 patients assigned epidural and 441 control. Findings 255 patients (57.1%) in the epidural group and 268 (60.7%) in the control group had at least one morbidity endpoint or died (p=0.29). Mortality at 30 days was low in both groups (epidural 23 [5.1%], control 19 [4.3%], p=0.67). Only one of eight categories of morbid endpoints in individual systems (respiratory failure) occurred less frequently in patients managed with epidural techniques (23% vs 30%, p=0.02). Postoperative epidural analgesia was associated with lower pain scores during the first 3 postoperative days. There were no major adverse consequences of epidural-catheter insertion. Interpretation Most adverse morbid outcomes in high-risk patients undergoing major abdominal surgery are not reduced by use of combined epidural and general anaesthesia and postoperative epidural analgesia. However, the improvement in analgesia, reduction in respiratory failure, and the low risk of serious adverse consequences suggest that many high-risk patients undergoing major intra-abdominal surgery will receive substantial benefit from combined general and epidural anaesthesia intraoperatively with continuing postoperative epidural analgesia.

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This charmingly old-fashioned little book was first published in Thai in 1984, and now appears in an elegant English translation. The two major intellectual influences that gave it birth are rather older, dating from the 1950s, 1960s, and early 1970s. The first developed from the intersection of the academic pre-eminence of varieties of Marxist thinking about the Third World and the struggles of anticolonial peasant-based revolutionaries and produced a high age of romanticism about the Southeast Asian village and the unfortunate victims who inhabited them. The origins of the second are more uncertain, but probably represent, paradoxically, a Thai appropriation of those Western social-science constructions of Thai cultural uniqueness which were especially popular in the 1950s and 1960s.

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The stock market suffers uncertain relations throughout the entire negotiation process, with different variables exerting direct and indirect influence on stock prices. This study focuses on the analysis of certain aspects that may influence these values offered by the capital market, based on the Brazil Index of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa), which selects 100 stocks among the most traded on Bovespa in terms of number of trades and financial volume. The selected variables are characterized by the companies` activity area and the business volume in the month of data collection, i.e. April/2007. This article proposes an analysis that joins the accounting view of the stock price variables that can be influenced with the use of multivariate qualitative data analysis. Data were explored through Correspondence Analysis (Anacor) and Homogeneity Analysis (Homals). According to the research, the selected variables are associated with the values presented by the stocks, which become an internal control instrument and a decision-making tool when it comes to choosing investments.

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The traditional theory of price index numbers is based on the law of one price. But in the real world, we frequently observe the existence of an equilibrium price dispersion instead of one price of equilibrium. This article discusses the effects of price dispersion on two price indexes: the cost of living index and the consumer price index. With price dispersion and consumer searching for the lowest price, these indexes cannot be interpreted as deterministic indicators, but as stochastic indicators, and they can be biased if price dispersion is not taken into account. A measure for the bias of the consumer price index is proposed and the article ends with an estimation of the bias based on data obtained from the consumer price index calculated for the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, from January 1988 through December 2004. The period analysed is very interesting, because it exhibits different inflationary environments: high levels and high volatility of the rates of inflation with great price dispersion until July 1994 and low and relatively stable rates of inflation with prices less dispersed after August 1994.

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In a recent thought-provoking paper, Ball and Sheridan [Ball, L., Sheridan, N., 2005. Does inflation targeting matter? In: Bernanke, B.S., Woodford, M. (Eds.), The Inflation-Targeting Debate, University of Chicago Press] show that the available evidence for a group of developed economies does not lend credence to the belief that adopting an inflation targeting regime (IT) was instrumental in bringing inflation and inflation volatility down. Here, we extend Ball and Sheridan`s analysis for a subset of 36 emerging market economies and find that, for them, the story is quite different. Compared to non-targeters, developing countries adopting the IT regime not only experienced greater drops in inflation, but also in growth volatility, thus corroborating the view that the regime`s ""constrained flexibility"" to deal with adverse shocks delivered concrete welfare gains. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

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Background-The importance of serum triglyceride levels as a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases is uncertain. Methods and Results-We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis of prospective studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. Cox models were applied to the combined data from 26 studies to estimate the overall and region-, sex-, and age-specific hazard ratios for major cardiovascular diseases by fifths of triglyceride values. During 796 671 person-years of follow-up among 96 224 individuals, 670 and 667 deaths as a result of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, respectively, were recorded. After adjustment for major cardiovascular risk factors, participants grouped in the highest fifth of triglyceride levels had a 70% (95% CI, 47 to 96) greater risk of CHD death, an 80% (95% CI, 49 to 119) higher risk of fatal or nonfatal CHD, and a 50% (95% CI, 29% to 76%) increased risk of fatal or nonfatal stroke compared with those belonging to the lowest fifth. The association between triglycerides and CHD death was similar across subgroups defined by ethnicity, age, and sex. Conclusions-Serum triglycerides are an important and independent predictor of CHD and stroke risk in the Asia-Pacific region. These results may have clinical implications for cardiovascular risk prediction and the use of lipid-lowering therapy.

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Eccentric exercise commonly results in muscle damage. The primary sequence of events leading to exercise-induced muscle damage is believed to involve initial mechanical disruption of sarcomeres, followed by impaired excitation-contraction coupling and calcium signaling, and finally, activation of calcium-sensitive degradation pathways. Muscle damage is characterized by ultrastructural changes to muscle architecture, increased muscle proteins and enzymes in the bloodstream, loss of muscular strength and range of motion and muscle soreness. The inflammatory response to exercise-induced muscle damage is characterized by leukocyte infiltration and production of pro-inflammatory cytokines within damaged muscle tissue, systemic release of leukocytes and cytokines, in addition to alterations in leukocyte receptor expression and functional activity. Current evidence suggests that inflammatory responses to muscle damage are dependent on the type of eccentric exercise, previous eccentric loading (repeated bouts), age and gender. Circulating neutrophil counts and systemic cytokine responses are greater after eccentric exercise using a large muscle mass (e.g. downhill running, eccentric cycling) than after other types of eccentric exercise involving a smaller muscle mass. After an initial bout of eccentric exercise, circulating leukocyte counts and cell surface receptor expression are attenuated. Leukocyte and cytokine responses to eccentric exercise are impaired in elderly individuals, while cellular infiltration into skeletal muscle is greater in human females than males after eccentric exercise. Whether alterations in intracellular calcium homeostasis influence inflammatory responses to muscle damage is uncertain. Furthermore, the effects of antioxidant supplements are variable, and the limited data available indicates that anti-inflammatory drugs largely have no influence on inflammatory responses to eccentric exercise. In this review, we compare local versus systemic inflammatory responses, and discuss some of the possible mechanisms regulating the inflammatory responses to exercise-induced muscle damage in humans.

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Prophylactic vaccines for genital human papillomavirus (HPV) infection have been shown to be feasible in animal models, and suitable vaccine material based on virus-like particles can be produced in bulk at reasonable cost. Initiation of phase III clinical trials will follow definition of trial outcome measures through further epidemiological studies, and development-of assays of host protective immunity. Vaccines could in principle eliminate HPV-related disease, as the human race is the only natural host for the relevant papillomaviruses (PVs). Therapeutic vaccines for genital HPV infection are also possible, but have not yet been demonstrated as feasible in practice because the choice of vaccine antigens is difficult, the method of their optimal delivery is uncertain, and the nature of the relevant antiviral immunity is unknown. PV species specificity will require trials to be conducted in man, which will slow definition of an ideal vaccine.

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Objective: To investigate the possible role of chromatin texture parameters, nuclear morphology, DNA ploidy and clinical functional status in discriminating benign from malignant adrenocortical tumors (ACT). Patients and Methods: Forty-eight cases of clinically benign (n=40) and clinically malignant (n=8) ACT with a minimum of 5-years` follow-up were evaluated for chromatin texture parameters (run length, standard deviation, configurable run length, valley, slope, peak and other 21 Markovian features that describe the distribution of the chromatin in the nucleus), nuclear morphology (nuclear area, nuclear perimeter, nuclear maximum and minumum diameter, nuclear shape), and DNA ploidy. Nuclear parameters were evaluated in Feulgen-stained 5 mu m paraffin-sections analyzed using a CAS 200 image analyzer. Results: Since ACTs present different biological features in children and adults, patients were divided into two groups: children (<= 15 years) and adults (>15 years). In the group of children DNA ploidy presented a marginal significance (p=0.05) in discriminating ACTs. None of the parameters discriminated between malignant and benign ACT in the adult group. Conclusion: ACTs are uncommon and definitive predictive criteria for malignancy remain uncertain, particularly in children. Our data point to DNA content evaluated by image analysis as a new candidate tool for this challenging task. Texture image analysis did not help to differentiate malignant from benign adrenal cortical tumors in children and adults.

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Creatine supplementation may have a therapeutic role in diabetes, but it is uncertain whether this supplement is safe for kidney function. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of creatine supplementation on kidney function in type 2 diabetic patients. A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was performed. The patients were randomly allocated to receive either creatine or placebo for 12 weeks. All the patients underwent exercise training throughout the trial. Subjects were assessed at baseline and after the intervention. Blood samples and 24-h urine samples were obtained for kidney function assessments. Additionally, (51)Cr-EDTA clearance was performed. To ensure the compliance with creatine intake, we also assessed muscle phosphorylcreatine content. The creatine group presented higher muscle phosphorylcreatine content when compared to placebo group (CR Pre 44 +/- A 10, Post 70 +/- A 18 mmol/kg/wt; PL Pre 52 +/- A 13, Post 46 +/- A 13 mmol/kg/wt; p = 0.03; estimated difference between means 23.6; 95% confidence interval 1.42-45.8). No significant differences were observed for (51)Cr-EDTA clearance (CR Pre 90.4 +/- A 16.9, Post 96.1 +/- A 15.0 mL/min/1.73 m(2); PL Pre 97.9 +/- A 21.6, Post 96.4 +/- A 26.8 mL/min/1.73 m(2); p = 0.58; estimated difference between means -0.3; 95% confidence interval -24.9 to 24.2). Creatinine clearance, serum and urinary urea, electrolytes, proteinuria, and albuminuria were unchanged. CR supplementation does not affect kidney function in type 2 diabetic patients, opening a window of opportunities to explore its promising therapeutic role in this population. ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: NCT00992043.

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Background: Worsening in clinical and cardiac status has been noted after chronic right ventricular pacing, but it is uncertain whether atriobiventricular (BiVP) is preferable to atrio-right ventricular pacing (RVP). Conventional versus Multisite Pacing for BradyArrhythmia Therapy study (COMBAT) sought to compare BiVP versus RVP in patients with symptomatic heart failure (HF) and atrioventricular (AV) block. Methods and Results: COMBAT is a prospective multicenter randomized double blind crossover study. Patients with New York Heart Association functional class (FC) II-IV, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <40%, and AV block as an indication for pacing were enrolled. All patients underwent biventricular system implantation and then were randomized to receive successively (group A) RVP-BiVP-RVP, or (group B) BiVP-RVP-BiVP. At the end of each 3-month crossover period, patients were evaluated according to Quality of Life (QoL), FC, echocardiographic parameters, 6-Minute Walk Test (6MWT), and peak oxygen consumption (VO(2max)). Sixty patients were enrolled, and the mean follow-up period was 17.5 +/- 10.7 months. There were significant improvements in QoL, FC, LVEF, and left ventricular end-systolic volume with BiVP compared with RVP. The effects of pacing mode on 6MWT and VO(2max) were not significantly different. Death occurred more frequently with RVP. Conclusion: In patients with systolic HF and AV block requiring permanent ventricular pacing, BiVP is superior to RVP and should be considered the preferred pacing mode. (J Cardiac Fail 2010;16:293-300)

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BACKGROUND The assessment of myocardial viability has been used to identify patients with coronary artery disease and left ventricular dysfunction in whom coronary-artery bypass grafting (CABG) will provide a survival benefit. However, the efficacy of this approach is uncertain. METHODS In a substudy of patients with coronary artery disease and left ventricular dysfunction who were enrolled in a randomized trial of medical therapy with or without CABG, we used single-photon-emission computed tomography (SPECT), dobutamine echocardiography, or both to assess myocardial viability on the basis of pre-specified thresholds. RESULTS Among the 1212 patients enrolled in the randomized trial, 601 underwent assessment of myocardial viability. Of these patients, we randomly assigned 298 to receive medical therapy plus CABG and 303 to receive medical therapy alone. A total of 178 of 487 patients with viable myocardium (37%) and 58 of 114 patients without viable myocardium (51%) died (hazard ratio for death among patients with viable myocardium, 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.48 to 0.86; P = 0.003). However, after adjustment for other baseline variables, this association with mortality was not significant (P = 0.21). There was no significant interaction between viability status and treatment assignment with respect to mortality (P = 0.53). CONCLUSIONS The presence of viable myocardium was associated with a greater likelihood of survival in patients with coronary artery disease and left ventricular dysfunction, but this relationship was not significant after adjustment for other baseline variables. The assessment of myocardial viability did not identify patients with a differential survival benefit from CABG, as compared with medical therapy alone.

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The mental health consequences of the daily or near-dailyuseof cannabisoveryearsand decades remain uncertain, and are likely to remain so for some time given the difficul ties involved in investigating them. Never theless, there is sufficient evidence that its effects are neither as benign as proponents of its legalisation often argue, nor as malign as some partisans of continued prohibition claim (Hall et a!, 1994).

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P>Allergens can be maternally transferred to the fetus or neonate, though it is uncertain how this initial allergen exposure may impact the development of allergy responses. To evaluate the roles of timing and level of maternal allergen exposure in the early life sensitization of progeny, female BALB/c mice were given ovalbumin (OVA) orally during pregnancy, lactation or weekly at each stage to investigate the immunoglobulin E (IgE) antibody production and cellular responsiveness of their offspring. Exposure to OVA during pregnancy was also evaluated in OVA-specific T-cell receptor (TCR) transgenic (DO11.10) mice. The effect of prenatal antigen exposure on offspring sensitization was dependent on antigen intake, with low-dose OVA inducing tolerance followed by neonatal immunization that was sustained even when pups were immunized when 3 weeks old. These offspring received high levels of transforming growth factor-beta via breastfeeding. High-dose exposure during the first week of pregnancy or perinatal period induced transient inhibition of IgE production following neonatal immunization; although for later immunization IgE production was enhanced in these offspring. Postnatal maternal antigen exposure provided OVA transference via breastfeeding, which consequently induced increased offspring susceptibility to IgE antibody production according to week post-birth. The effect of low-dose maternal exposure during pregnancy was further evaluated using OVA transgenic TCR dams as a model. These progeny presented pronounced entry of CD4(+) T cells into the S phase of the cell cycle with a skewed T helper type 2 response early in life, revealing the occurrence of allergen priming in utero. The balance between tolerance and sensitization depended on the amount and timing of maternal allergen intake during pregnancy.