Protocol for the modeling the epidemiologic transition study: a longitudinal observational study of energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The prevalence of obesity has increased in societies of all socio-cultural backgrounds. To date, guidelines set forward to prevent obesity have universally emphasized optimal levels of physical activity. However there are few empirical data to support the assertion that low levels of energy expenditure in activity is a causal factor in the current obesity epidemic are very limited. METHODS: The Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) is a cohort study designed to assess the association between physical activity levels and relative weight, weight gain and diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five population-based samples at different stages of economic development. Twenty-five hundred young adults, ages 25-45, were enrolled in the study; 500 from sites in Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the United States. At baseline, physical activity levels were assessed using accelerometry and a questionnaire in all participants and by doubly labeled water in a subsample of 75 per site. We assessed dietary intake using two separate 24-h recalls, body composition using bioelectrical impedance analysis, and health history, social and economic indicators by questionnaire. Blood pressure was measured and blood samples collected for measurement of lipids, glucose, insulin and adipokines. Full examination including physical activity using accelerometry, anthropometric data and fasting glucose will take place at 12 and 24 months. The distribution of the main variables and the associations between physical activity, independent of energy intake, glucose metabolism and anthropometric measures will be assessed using cross-section and longitudinal analysis within and between sites. DISCUSSION: METS will provide insight on the relative contribution of physical activity and diet to excess weight, age-related weight gain and incident glucose impairment in five populations' samples of young adults at different stages of economic development. These data should be useful for the development of empirically-based public health policy aimed at the prevention of obesity and associated chronic diseases.

War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.

An alternative socio-ecological strategy? International Trade Unions' engagement with climate change

In the context of a global ecological crisis, it is an important move when trade unions turn to environmentalism. Yet, the form that this environmentalism takes is often overlooked. This is especially the case with international trade unions. Based on an empirical study of international trade unions' engagement with the climate change issue, this article argues that international trade unions follow three different (and partially conflicting) strategies. I label these strategies as 'deliberative', 'collaborative growth' and 'socialist', and I examine each in turn. I argue that such analysis is important if we want to identify the potential for transforming the social relations of production that are at the root of the current climate crisis, and for identifying an alternative socio-ecological strategy.

Substrate metabolism, nutrient balance and obesity development in children and adolescents: a target for intervention?

Obesity results from the organism's inability to maintain energy balance over a long term. Childhood obesity and its related factors and pathological consequences tend to persist into adulthood. A cluster of factors, including high energy density in the diet (high fat intake), low energy expenditure, and disturbed substrate oxidation, favour the increase in fat mass. Oxidation of three major macronutrients and their roles in the regulation of energy balance, particularly in children and adolescents, are discussed. Total glucose oxidation is not different between obese and lean children; exogenous glucose utilization is higher whereas endogenous glucose utilization is lower in obese compared with lean children. Carbohydrate composition of the diet determines carbohydrate oxidation regardless of fat content of the diet. Both exogenous and endogenous fat oxidation are higher in obese than in lean subjects. The influence of high fat intake on accumulation of fat mass is operative rather over a long term. Several future directions are addressed, such that a combination of increased physical activity and modification in diet composition, in terms of energy density and glycemic index, is recommended for children and adolescents.

Stimulated sweating as a therapy to reduce interdialytic weight gain and improve potassium balance in chronic hemodialysis patients: a pilot study.

Controlling the extracellular volume in hemodialysis patients is a difficult task. The aim of this study was to evaluate the capacity of different methods of stimulated sweating to reduce mean interdialytic weight gain (IWG), to improve blood pressure regulation, and potassium/urea balance. Two center, crossover pilot study. In Lausanne, hemodialysis patients took four hot-water baths a week, 30 minutes each, on nondialysis days during 1 month. In Sfax, patients visited the local Hammam Center four times a week. Hemodynamic parameters were recorded, and weekly laboratory analysis was performed. Results were compared with a preceding 1-month control period. In Lausanne, five patients (all men, median age 55 years) participated. Bathing temperature was (mean ± standard deviation) 41.2 ± 3°C and sweating-induced weight loss 600 ± 500 g. Mean IWG (control vs. intervention period) decreased from 2.3 ± 0.9 to 1.8 ± 1 kg (P = 0.004), Systolic blood pressure from 139 ± 21 to 136 ± 22 mmHg (P = 0.4), and diastolic blood pressure form 79 ± 12 to 75 ± 13 mmHg (P = 0.08); antihypertensive therapy could be reduced from 2.8 ± 0.4 to 1.9 ± 0.5 antihypertensive drugs per patient (P = 0.01). In Sfax (n = 9, median age 46 years), weight loss per Hammam session was 420 ± 100 g. No differences were found in IWG or BP, but predialysis serum potassium level decreased from 5.9 ± 0.8 to 5.5 ± 0.9 mmol/L (P = 0.04) and urea from 26.9 ± 6 to 23.1 ± 6 mmol/L (P = 0.02). Hot-water baths appear to be a safe way to reduce IWG in selected hemodialysis patients. Hammam visits reduce serum potassium and urea levels, but not IWG. More data in larger patient groups are necessary before definite conclusion can be drawn.

CO2 emissions embodied in international trade: A multiregional Inputoutput model for Spain

As a result of globalization and free trade agreements, international trade is enormously growing and inevitably putting more pressure on the environment over the last few decades. This has drawn the attention of both environmentalist and economist in response to the ever growing concerns of climate change and urgent need of international action for its mitigation. In this work we aim at analyzing the implication of international trade in terms of CO2 between Spain and its important partners using a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model. A fully integrated 13 regions MRIO model is constructed to examine the pollution responsibility of Spain both from production and consumption perspectives. The empirical results show that Spain is a net importer of CO2 emissions which is equivalent to 29% of its emission due to production. Even though the leading partner with regard to import values are countries such as Germany, France, Italy and Great Britain, the CO2 embodied due to trade with China takes the largest share. This is mainly due to the importation of energy intensive products from China coupled with Chinese poor energy mix which is dominated by coal-power plant. The largest portion (67%) of the global imported CO2 emissions is due to intermediate demand requirements by production sectors. Products such as Motor vehicles, chemicals, a variety of machineries and equipments, textile and leather products, construction materials are the key imports that drive the emissions due to their production in the respective exporting countries. Being at its peak in 2005, the Construction sector is the most responsible activity behind both domestic and imported emissions.

Direct and indirect root defences of milkweed (Asclepias syriaca): trophic cascades, trade-offs and novel methods for studying subterranean herbivory

P>1. Entomopathogenic nematodes can function as indirect defence for plants that are attacked by root herbivores. By releasing volatile organic compounds (VOCs), plants signal the presence of host insects and thereby attract nematodes.2. Nonetheless, how roots deploy indirect defences, how indirect defences relate to direct defences, and the ecological consequences of root defence allocation for herbivores and plant biomass are essentially unknown.3. We investigate a natural below-ground tritrophic system, involving common milkweed, a specialist root-boring beetle and entomopathogenic nematodes, and asked whether there is a negative genetic correlation between direct defences (root cardenolides) and indirect defences (emission of volatiles in the roots and nematode attraction), and between constitutive and inducible defences.4. Volatiles of roots were analysed using two distinct sampling methods. First, we collected emissions from living Asclepias syriaca roots by dynamic headspace sampling. This method showed that attacked A. syriaca plants emit five times higher levels of volatiles than control plants. Secondly, we used a solid phase micro-extraction (SPME) method to sample the full pool of volatiles in roots for genetic correlations of volatile biosynthesis.5. Field experiments showed that entomopathogenic nematodes prevent the loss of biomass to root herbivory. Additionally, suppression of root herbivores was mediated directly by cardenolides and indirectly by the attraction of nematodes. Genetic families of plants with high cardenolides benefited less from nematodes compared to low-cardenolide families, suggesting that direct and indirect defences may be redundant. Although constitutive and induced root defences traded off within each strategy (for both direct and indirect defence, cardenolides and VOCs, respectively), we found no trade-off between the two strategies.6. Synthesis. Constitutive expression and inducibility of defences may trade off because of resource limitation or because they are redundant. Direct and indirect defences do not trade off, likely because they may not share a limiting resource and because independently they may promote defence across the patchiness of herbivore attack and nematode presence in the field. Indeed, some redundancy in strategies may be necessary to increase effective defence, but for each strategy, an economy of deployment reduces overall costs.

Adipose tissue integrity as a prerequisite for systemic energy balance: a critical role for peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma.

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARgamma) is an essential regulator of adipocyte differentiation, maintenance, and survival. Deregulations of its functions are associated with metabolic diseases. We show here that deletion of one PPARgamma allele not only affected lipid storage but, more surprisingly, also the expression of genes involved in glucose uptake and utilization, the pentose phosphate pathway, fatty acid synthesis, lipolysis, and glycerol export as well as in IR/IGF-1 signaling. These deregulations led to reduced circulating adiponectin levels and an energy crisis in the WAT, reflected in a decrease to nearly half of its intracellular ATP content. In addition, there was a decrease in the metabolic rate and physical activity of the PPARgamma(+/-) mice, which was abolished by thiazolidinedione treatment, thereby linking regulation of the metabolic rate and physical activity to PPARgamma. It is likely that the PPARgamma(+/-) phenotype was due to the observed WAT dysfunction, since the gene expression profiles associated with metabolic pathways were not affected either in the liver or the skeletal muscle. These findings highlight novel roles of PPARgamma in the adipose tissue and underscore the multifaceted action of this receptor in the functional fine tuning of a tissue that is crucial for maintaining the organism in good health.

Multilateral Trade and Agricultural Policy Reforms in Sugar Markets, September 2005

We analyze the impact of trade liberalization, removal of production subsidies, and elimination of consumption distortions in world sugar markets using a partial-equilibrium international sugar model calibrated on 2002 market data and current policies. The removal of trade distortions alone induces a 27% price increase while the removal of all trade and production distortions induces a 48% increase by 2011/12 relative to the baseline. Aggregate trade expands moderately, but location of production and trade patterns change substantially. Protectionist OECD countries (the EU, Japan, the US) experience an import expansion or export reduction and significant contraction in production in unfettered markets. Competitive producers in both OECD countries (Australia) and non-OECD countries (Brazil, Cuba), and even some protected producers (Indonesia, Turkey), expand production when all distortions are removed. Consumption distortions have marginal impacts on world markets and location of production. We discuss the significance of these results in the context of mounting pressures to increase market access in highly protected OECD countries and the impact on non-OECD countries.

I-35 Corridor Trade Study Newsletter, Winter 1998

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA)and the Departments of Transportation in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota combined their efforts to conduct The I-35 Trade Corridor Study.

I-35 Corridor Trade Study - Final Executive Summary, 2005

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and the Departments of Transportation in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota combined their efforts to conduct a study of Interstate Highway 35 (I-35) from Laredo, Texas to Duluth, Minnesota. The purpose of the study was to assess the need for improved local, intrastate, interstate, and international service on I-35 and to clearly define a general feasible improvement plan to address those needs