Convergence time to equilibrium distributions of autonomous and periodic non-autonomous graphs

We present some estimates of the time of convergence to the equilibrium distribution in autonomous and periodic non-autonomous graphs, with ergodic stochastic adjacency matrices, using the eigenvalues of these matrices. On this way we generalize previous results from several authors, that only considered reversible matrices.

Strategie produttive e di marketing nell'industria cinematografica e televisiva: i casi di Mr. Robot e No Time to Die

La tesi si occupa di delineare una panoramica sul sistema dell'industria dei media e in particolare delle tendenze contemporanee produttive e di marketing volte ad attirare il maggior numero di consumatori. Si prende in esame il prodotto cinematografico dal punto di vista economico e di marketing delineandone i diversi processi: dal marketing mix alle tecniche di segmentazione, targeting e posizionamento fino alle diverse componenti del prodotto stesso che influenzano le scelte dei fruitori. Quest'ultimi esprimono esigenze diverse ed è per questo che è importante che si conosca la domanda a cui rivolgersi e saper comunicare nel modo più adeguato possibile. Nella contemporaneità lo spettatore è sempre più attivo e coinvolto poiché con la sovrabbondanza di offerta si cerca di produrre contenuti più complessi, serializzati e high concept proprio con l'obiettivo di attrarre. Nell'era della convergenza, come definita da Henry Jenkins, si parla di prosumer, ovvero di soggetti che partecipano attivamente al consumo dei prodotti producendo a loro volta contenuti. A queste dinamiche, il marketing contemporaneo risponde a sua volta con forme esperienziali e a forme virali che possano attirare l'attenzione. Analizzo a tal proposito la campagna marketing della serie tv Mr. Robot in quanto si inserisce all'interno della complessità produttiva e della transmedialità e il caso cinematografico della campagna di No Time to Die, l'ultimo film del franchise di 007, in era pandemica.

A general hazard model for lifetime data in the presence of cure rate

Historically, the cure rate model has been used for modeling time-to-event data within which a significant proportion of patients are assumed to be cured of illnesses, including breast cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, leukemia, prostate cancer, melanoma, and head and neck cancer. Perhaps the most popular type of cure rate model is the mixture model introduced by Berkson and Gage [1]. In this model, it is assumed that a certain proportion of the patients are cured, in the sense that they do not present the event of interest during a long period of time and can found to be immune to the cause of failure under study. In this paper, we propose a general hazard model which accommodates comprehensive families of cure rate models as particular cases, including the model proposed by Berkson and Gage. The maximum-likelihood-estimation procedure is discussed. A simulation study analyzes the coverage probabilities of the asymptotic confidence intervals for the parameters. A real data set on children exposed to HIV by vertical transmission illustrates the methodology.

Phase II study of weekly plitidepsin as second-line therapy for small cell lung cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the antitumor activity and safety profile of plitidepsin administered as a 1h weekly intravenous (i.v.) infusion of 3.2mg/m(2) to patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC) who relapsed or progressed after one line of chemotherapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a multicenter, open-label, single-arm, exploratory, phase II clinical trial. Treatment lasted until disease progression, unacceptable toxicity, patient refusal or treatment delay for >2 weeks. Objective response rate (primary efficacy endpoint) was evaluated according to response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (RECIST). The rate of stable disease (SD) lasting for at least 6 months and time-to-event variables were secondary endpoints of efficacy. Toxicity was assessed using National Cancer Institute Common Toxicity Criteria (NCI-CTC) version 2.0. RESULTS: Twenty pretreated SCLC patients (median age, 60 years) with extensive (n=13) or limited-stage disease (n=7) received a total of 24 treatment cycles (median, one cycle per patient; range, 1-2). Objective tumor responses were not observed and only one of the 17 evaluable patients had SD. With a median follow-up of 11.8 months, the progression-free survival and the median overall survival were 1.3 months and 4.8 months, respectively. The most troubling or common toxicities were fatigue, muscle weakness, lymphopenia, anemia (no patients showed neutropenia), and asymptomatic, non-cumulative increase of transaminases levels and alkaline phosphatase. CONCLUSION: This clinical trial shows that a cycle of 1h weekly i.v. infusion of plitidepsin (3.2mg/m(2)) was generally well tolerated other than fatigue and muscle weakness in patients with pretreated SCLC. One patient died due to multi-organ failure. The absence of antitumor activity found here precludes further studies of this plitidepsin schedule as second-line single-agent treatment of SCLC.

A human MYBPC3 mutation appearing about 10 centuries ago results in a hypertrophic cardiomyopathy with delayed onset, moderate evolution but with a risk of sudden death.

BACKGROUND: Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a genetically heterogeneous disease. One specific mutation in the MYBPC3 gene is highly prevalent in center east of France giving an opportunity to define the clinical profile of this specific mutation. METHODS: HCM probands were screened for mutation in the MYH7, MYBPC3, TNNT2 and TNNI3 genes. Carriers of the MYBPC3 IVS20-2A>G mutation were genotyped with 8 microsatellites flanking this gene. The age of this MYBPC3 mutation was inferred with the software ESTIAGE. The age at first symptom, diagnosis, first complication, first severe complication and the rate of sudden death were compared between carriers of the IVS20-2 mutation (group A) and carriers of all other mutations (group B) using time to event curves and log rank test. RESULTS: Out of 107 HCM probands, 45 had a single heterozygous mutation in one of the 4 tested sarcomeric genes including 9 patients with the MYBPC3 IVS20-2A>G mutation. The IVS20-2 mutation in these 9 patients and their 25 mutation carrier relatives was embedded in a common haplotype defined after genotyping 4 polymorphic markers on each side of the MYBPC3 gene. This result supports the hypothesis of a common ancestor. Furthermore, we evaluated that the mutation occurred about 47 generations ago, approximately at the 10th century.We then compared the clinical profile of the IVS20-2 mutation carriers (group A) and the carriers of all other mutations (group B). Age at onset of symptoms was similar in the 34 group A cases and the 73 group B cases but group A cases were diagnosed on average 15 years later (log rank test p = 0.022). Age of first complication and first severe complication was delayed in group A vs group B cases but the prevalence of sudden death and age at death was similar in both groups. CONCLUSION: A founder mutation arising at about the 10th century in the MYBPC3 gene accounts for 8.4% of all HCM in center east France and results in a cardiomyopathy starting late and evolving slowly but with an apparent risk of sudden death similar to other sarcomeric mutations.

Phase 3 randomized trial on larynx preservation comparing sequential vs alternating chemotherapy and radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Both induction chemotherapy followed by irradiation and concurrent chemotherapy and radiotherapy have been reported as valuable alternatives to total laryngectomy in patients with advanced larynx or hypopharynx cancer. We report results of the randomized phase 3 trial 24954 from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer. METHODS: Patients with resectable advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx (tumor stage T3-T4) or hypopharynx (T2-T4), with regional lymph nodes in the neck staged as N0-N2 and with no metastasis, were randomly assigned to treatment in the sequential (or control) or the alternating (or experimental) arm. In the sequential arm, patients with a 50% or more reduction in primary tumor size after two cycles of cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil received another two cycles, followed by radiotherapy (70 Gy total). In the alternating arm, a total of four cycles of cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil (in weeks 1, 4, 7, and 10) were alternated with radiotherapy with 20 Gy during the three 2-week intervals between chemotherapy cycles (60 Gy total). All nonresponders underwent salvage surgery and postoperative radiotherapy. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to obtain time-to-event data. RESULTS: The 450 patients were randomly assigned to treatment (224 to the sequential arm and 226 to the alternating arm). Median follow-up was 6.5 years. Survival with a functional larynx was similar in sequential and alternating arms (hazard ratio of death and/or event = 0.85, 95% confidence interval = 0.68 to 1.06), as were median overall survival (4.4 and 5.1 years, respectively) and median progression-free interval (3.0 and 3.1 years, respectively). Grade 3 or 4 mucositis occurred in 64 (32%) of the 200 patients in the sequential arm who received radiotherapy and in 47 (21%) of the 220 patients in the alternating arm. Late severe edema and/or fibrosis was observed in 32 (16%) patients in the sequential arm and in 25 (11%) in the alternating arm. CONCLUSIONS: Larynx preservation, progression-free interval, and overall survival were similar in both arms, as were acute and late toxic effects.

Clinically significant bleeding in incurable cancer patients: effectiveness of hemostatic radiotherapy

Background This study was performed to evaluate the outcome after hemostatic radiotherapy (RT) of significant bleeding in incurable cancer patients. Methods Patients treated by hemostatic RT between November 2006 and February 2010 were retrospectively analyzed. Bleeding was assessed according to the World Health Organization (WHO) scale (grade 0 = no bleeding, 1 = petechial bleeding, 2 = clinically significant bleeding, 3 = bleeding requiring transfusion, 4 = bleeding associated with fatality). The primary endpoint was bleeding at the end of RT. Key secondary endpoints included overall survival (OS) and acute toxicity. The bleeding score before and after RT were compared using the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Time to event endpoints were estimated using the Kaplan Meier method. Results Overall 62 patients were analyzed including 1 patient whose benign cause of bleeding was pseudomyxoma peritonei. Median age was 66 (range, 37–93) years. Before RT, bleeding was graded as 2 and 3 in 24 (39%) and 38 (61%) patients, respectively. A median dose of 20 (range, 5–45) Gy of hemostatic RT was applied to the bleeding site. At the end of RT, there was a statistically significant difference in bleeding (p < 0.001); it was graded as 0 (n = 39), 1 (n = 12), 2 (n = 6), 3 (n = 4) and 4 (n = 1). With a median follow-up of 19.3 (range, 0.3-19.3) months, the 6-month OS rate was 43%. Forty patients died (65%); 5 due to bleeding. No grade 3 or above acute toxicity was observed. Conclusions Hemostatic RT seems to be a safe and effective treatment for clinically and statistically significantly reducing bleeding in incurable cancer patients.

Statins and myasthenia gravis

Introduction. 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl CoA reductase inhibitor ("statin") have been widely used for hypercholesteroremia and Statin induced myopathy is well known. Whether Statins contribute to exacerbation of Myasthenia Gravis (MG) requiring hospitalization is not well known. ^ Objectives. To determine the frequency of statin use in patients with MG seen at the neuromuscular division at University of Alabama in Birmingham (UAB) and to evaluate any association between use of statins and MG exacerbations requiring hospitalization in patients with an established diagnosis of Myasthenia Gravis. ^ Methods. We reviewed records of all current MG patients at the UAB neuromuscular department to obtain details on use of statins and any hospitalizations due to exacerbation of MG over the period from January 1, 2003 to December 31, 2006. ^ Results. Of the 113 MG patients on whom information was available for this period, 40 were on statins during at least one clinic visit. Statin users were more likely to be older (mean age 60.2 vs 53.8, p = 0.029), male (70.0% vs 43.8%, p = 0.008), and had a later onset of myasthenia gravis (mean age in years at onset 49.8 versus 42.9, p = 0.051). The total number of hospitalizations or the proportion of subjects who had at least one hospitalization during the study period did not differ in the statin versus no-statin group. However, when hospitalizations which occurred from a suspected precipitant were excluded ("event"), the proportion of subjects who had at least one such event during the study period was higher in the group using statins. In the final Cox proportional hazard model for cumulative time to event, statin use (OR = 6.44, p <0.01) and baseline immunosuppression (OR = 3.03, p = 0.07) were found to increase the odds of event. ^ Conclusions. Statin use may increase the rate of hospitalizations due to MG exacerbation, when excluding exacerbations precipitated by other suspected factors.^

A multivariate frailty model for disease recurrences and survival

A multivariate frailty hazard model is developed for joint-modeling of three correlated time-to-event outcomes: (1) local recurrence, (2) distant recurrence, and (3) overall survival. The term frailty is introduced to model population heterogeneity. The dependence is modeled by conditioning on a shared frailty that is included in the three hazard functions. Independent variables can be included in the model as covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the posterior distributions of model parameters. The algorithm used in present application is the hybrid Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, which simultaneously updates all parameters with evaluations of gradient of log posterior density. The performance of this approach is examined based on simulation studies using Exponential and Weibull distributions. We apply the proposed methods to a study of patients with soft tissue sarcoma, which motivated this research. Our results indicate that patients with chemotherapy had better overall survival with hazard ratio of 0.242 (95% CI: 0.094 - 0.564) and lower risk of distant recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.636 (95% CI: 0.487 - 0.860), but not significantly better in local recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.799 (95% CI: 0.575 - 1.054). The advantages and limitations of the proposed models, and future research directions are discussed. ^

Bayesian adaptive designs for drug combinations in early phase clinical trials

Treating patients with combined agents is a growing trend in cancer clinical trials. Evaluating the synergism of multiple drugs is often the primary motivation for such drug-combination studies. Focusing on the drug combination study in the early phase clinical trials, our research is composed of three parts: (1) We conduct a comprehensive comparison of four dose-finding designs in the two-dimensional toxicity probability space and propose using the Bayesian model averaging method to overcome the arbitrariness of the model specification and enhance the robustness of the design; (2) Motivated by a recent drug-combination trial at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a continuous-dose standard of care agent and a discrete-dose investigational agent, we propose a two-stage Bayesian adaptive dose-finding design based on an extended continual reassessment method; (3) By combining phase I and phase II clinical trials, we propose an extension of a single agent dose-finding design. We model the time-to-event toxicity and efficacy to direct dose finding in two-dimensional drug-combination studies. We conduct extensive simulation studies to examine the operating characteristics of the aforementioned designs and demonstrate the designs' good performances in various practical scenarios.^

Avaliação e correções de testes de hipóteses em modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura

Survival models deals with the modelling of time to event data. In certain situations, a share of the population can no longer be subjected to the event occurrence. In this context, the cure fraction models emerged. Among the models that incorporate a fraction of cured one of the most known is the promotion time model. In the present study we discuss hypothesis testing in the promotion time model with Weibull distribution for the failure times of susceptible individuals. Hypothesis testing in this model may be performed based on likelihood ratio, gradient, score or Wald statistics. The critical values are obtained from asymptotic approximations, which may result in size distortions in nite sample sizes. This study proposes bootstrap corrections to the aforementioned tests and Bartlett bootstrap to the likelihood ratio statistic in Weibull promotion time model. Using Monte Carlo simulations we compared the nite sample performances of the proposed corrections in contrast with the usual tests. The numerical evidence favors the proposed corrected tests. At the end of the work an empirical application is presented.

Methods for Hypothesis Testing in Animal Carcinogenicity Experiments

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Cluster analysis of behavioural and event-related potentials during a contingent negative variation paradigm in remitting-relapsing and benign forms of multiple sclerosis

Background: Event-related potentials (ERPs) may be used as a highly sensitive way of detecting subtle degrees of cognitive dysfunction. On the other hand, impairment of cognitive skills is increasingly recognised as a hallmark of patients suffering from multiple sclerosis (MS). We sought to determine the psychophysiological pattern of information processing among MS patients with the relapsing-remitting form of the disease and low physical disability considered as two subtypes: 'typical relapsing-remitting' (RRMS) and 'benign MS' (BMS). Furthermore, we subjected our data to a cluster analysis to determine whether MS patients and healthy controls could be differentiated in terms of their psychophysiological profile.Methods: We investigated MS patients with RRMS and BMS subtypes using event-related potentials (ERPs) acquired in the context of a Posner visual-spatial cueing paradigm. Specifically, our study aimed to assess ERP brain activity in response preparation (contingent negative variation -CNV) and stimuli processing in MS patients. Latency and amplitude of different ERP components (P1, eN1, N1, P2, N2, P3 and late negativity -LN) as well as behavioural responses (reaction time -RT; correct responses -CRs; and number of errors) were analyzed and then subjected to cluster analysis. Results: Both MS groups showed delayed behavioural responses and enhanced latency for long-latency ERP components (P2, N2, P3) as well as relatively preserved ERP amplitude, but BMS patients obtained more important performance deficits (lower CRs and higher RTs) and abnormalities related to the latency (N1, P3) and amplitude of ERPs (eCNV, eN1, LN). However, RRMS patients also demonstrated abnormally high amplitudes related to the preparation performance period of CNV (cCNV) and post-processing phase (LN). Cluster analyses revealed that RRMS patients appear to make up a relatively homogeneous group with moderate deficits mainly related to ERP latencies, whereas BMS patients appear to make up a rather more heterogeneous group with more severe information processing and attentional deficits. Conclusions: Our findings are suggestive of a slowing of information processing for MS patients that may be a consequence of demyelination and axonal degeneration, which also seems to occur in MS patients that show little or no progression in the physical severity of the disease over time.

Modelling and Analysis of Recurrent Event Data with Multiple Causes

This thesis Entitled “modelling and analysis of recurrent event data with multiple causes.Survival data is a term used for describing data that measures the time to occurrence of an event.In survival studies, the time to occurrence of an event is generally referred to as lifetime.Recurrent event data are commonly encountered in longitudinal studies when individuals are followed to observe the repeated occurrences of certain events. In many practical situations, individuals under study are exposed to the failure due to more than one causes and the eventual failure can be attributed to exactly one of these causes.The proposed model was useful in real life situations to study the effect of covariates on recurrences of certain events due to different causes.In Chapter 3, an additive hazards model for gap time distributions of recurrent event data with multiple causes was introduced. The parameter estimation and asymptotic properties were discussed .In Chapter 4, a shared frailty model for the analysis of bivariate competing risks data was presented and the estimation procedures for shared gamma frailty model, without covariates and with covariates, using EM algorithm were discussed. In Chapter 6, two nonparametric estimators for bivariate survivor function of paired recurrent event data were developed. The asymptotic properties of the estimators were studied. The proposed estimators were applied to a real life data set. Simulation studies were carried out to find the efficiency of the proposed estimators.