Influence of south Atlantic sea surface temperatures on rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa

It is generally agreed that changing climate variability, and the associated change in climate extremes, may have a greater impact on environmentally vulnerable regions than a changing mean. This research investigates rainfall variability, rainfall extremes, and their associations with atmospheric and oceanic circulations over southern Africa, a region that is considered particularly vulnerable to extreme events because of numerous environmental, social, and economic pressures. Because rainfall variability is a function of scale, high-resolution data are needed to identify extreme events. Thus, this research uses remotely sensed rainfall data and climate model experiments at high spatial and temporal resolution, with the overall aim being to investigate the ways in which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. Extreme rainfall identification is achieved by the high-resolution microwave/infrared rainfall algorithm dataset. This comprises satellite-derived daily rainfall from 1993 to 2002 and covers southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° latitude–longitude. Extremes are extracted and used with reanalysis data to study possible circulation anomalies associated with extreme rainfall. Anomalously cold SSTs in the central South Atlantic and warm SSTs off the coast of southwestern Africa seem to be statistically related to rainfall extremes. Further, through a number of idealized climate model experiments, it would appear that both decreasing SSTs in the central South Atlantic and increasing SSTs off the coast of southwestern Africa lead to a demonstrable increase in daily rainfall and rainfall extremes over southern Africa, via local effects such as increased convection and remote effects such as an adjustment of the Walker-type circulation.

Evaluating the efficacy of planktonic foraminifer calcite and 18O data for sea surface temperature reconstruction for the Late Miocene

This study examines the efficacy of published δ18O data from the calcite of Late Miocene surface dwelling planktonic foraminifer shells, for sea surface temperature estimates for the pre-Quaternary. The data are from 33 Late Miocene (Messinian) marine sites from a modern latitudinal gradient of 64°N to 48°S. They give estimates of SSTs in the tropics/subtropics (to 30°N and S) that are mostly cooler than present. Possible causes of this temperature discrepancy are ecological factors (e.g. calcification of shells at levels below the ocean mixed layer), taphonomic effects (e.g. diagenesis or dissolution), inaccurate estimation of Late Miocene seawater oxygen isotope composition, or a real Late Miocene cool climate. The scale of apparent cooling in the tropics suggests that the SST signal of the foraminifer calcite has been reset, at least in part, by early diagenetic calcite with higher δ18O, formed in the foraminifer shells in cool sea bottom pore waters, probably coupled with the effects of calcite formed below the mixed layer during the life of the foraminifera. This hypothesis is supported by the markedly cooler SST estimates from low latitudes—in some cases more than 9 °C cooler than present—where the gradients of temperature and the δ18O composition of seawater between sea surface and sea bottom are most marked, and where ocean surface stratification is high. At higher latitudes, particularly N and S of 30°, the temperature signal is still cooler, though maximum temperature estimates overlap with modern SSTs N and S of 40°. Comparison of SST estimates for the Late Miocene from alkenone unsaturation analysis from the eastern tropical Atlantic at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 958—which suggest a warmer sea surface by 2–4 °C, with estimates from oxygen isotopes at Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 366 and ODP Site 959, indicating cooler than present SSTs, also suggest a significant impact on the δ18O signal. Nevertheless, much of the original SST variation is clearly preserved in the primary calcite formed in the mixed layer, and records secular and temporal oceanographic changes at the sea surface, such as movement of the Antarctic Polar Front in the Southern Ocean. Cooler SSTs in the tropics and sub-tropics are also consistent with the Late Miocene latitude reduction in the coral reef belt and with interrupted reef growth on the Queensland Plateau of eastern Australia, though it is not possible to quantify absolute SSTs with the existing oxygen isotope data. Reconstruction of an accurate global SST dataset for Neogene time-slices from the existing published DSDP/ODP isotope data, for use in general circulation models, may require a detailed re-assessment of taphonomy at many sites.

Evaluating the efficacy of planktonic foraminifer calcite and 18O data for sea surface temperature reconstruction for the Late Miocene

This study examines the efficacy of published δ18O data from the calcite of Late Miocene surface dwelling planktonic foraminifer shells, for sea surface temperature estimates for the pre-Quaternary. The data are from 33 Late Miocene (Messinian) marine sites from a modern latitudinal gradient of 64°N to 48°S. They give estimates of SSTs in the tropics/subtropics (to 30°N and S) that are mostly cooler than present. Possible causes of this temperature discrepancy are ecological factors (e.g. calcification of shells at levels below the ocean mixed layer), taphonomic effects (e.g. diagenesis or dissolution), inaccurate estimation of Late Miocene seawater oxygen isotope composition, or a real Late Miocene cool climate. The scale of apparent cooling in the tropics suggests that the SST signal of the foraminifer calcite has been reset, at least in part, by early diagenetic calcite with higher δ18O, formed in the foraminifer shells in cool sea bottom pore waters, probably coupled with the effects of calcite formed below the mixed layer during the life of the foraminifera. This hypothesis is supported by the markedly cooler SST estimates from low latitudes—in some cases more than 9 °C cooler than present—where the gradients of temperature and the δ18O composition of seawater between sea surface and sea bottom are most marked, and where ocean surface stratification is high. At higher latitudes, particularly N and S of 30°, the temperature signal is still cooler, though maximum temperature estimates overlap with modern SSTs N and S of 40°. Comparison of SST estimates for the Late Miocene from alkenone unsaturation analysis from the eastern tropical Atlantic at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 958—which suggest a warmer sea surface by 2–4 °C, with estimates from oxygen isotopes at Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 366 and ODP Site 959, indicating cooler than present SSTs, also suggest a significant impact on the δ18O signal. Nevertheless, much of the original SST variation is clearly preserved in the primary calcite formed in the mixed layer, and records secular and temporal oceanographic changes at the sea surface, such as movement of the Antarctic Polar Front in the Southern Ocean. Cooler SSTs in the tropics and sub-tropics are also consistent with the Late Miocene latitude reduction in the coral reef belt and with interrupted reef growth on the Queensland Plateau of eastern Australia, though it is not possible to quantify absolute SSTs with the existing oxygen isotope data. Reconstruction of an accurate global SST dataset for Neogene time-slices from the existing published DSDP/ODP isotope data, for use in general circulation models, may require a detailed re-assessment of taphonomy at many sites.

Multidecadal modulation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variance by Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures

Observations suggest a possible link between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, with the warm AMO phase being related to weaker ENSO variability. A coupled ocean-atmosphere model is used to investigate this relationship and to elucidate mechanisms responsible for it. Anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with the positive AMO lead to change in the basic state in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This basic state change is associated with a deepened thermocline and reduced vertical stratification of the equatorial Pacific ocean, which in turn leads to weakened ENSO variability. We suggest a role for an atmospheric bridge that rapidly conveys the influence of the Atlantic Ocean to the tropical Pacific. The results suggest a non-local mechanism for changes in ENSO statistics and imply that anomalous Atlantic ocean SSTs can modulate both mean climate and climate variability over the Pacific.

Dependence of Indian monsoon rainfall on moisture fluxes across the Arabian Sea and the impact of coupled model sea surface temperature biases

The Arabian Sea is an important moisture source for Indian monsoon rainfall. The skill of climate models in simulating the monsoon and its variability varies widely, while Arabian Sea cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases are common in coupled models and may therefore influence the monsoon and its sensitivity to climate change. We examine the relationship between monsoon rainfall, moisture fluxes and Arabian Sea SST in observations and climate model simulations. Observational analysis shows strong monsoons depend on moisture fluxes across the Arabian Sea, however detecting consistent signals with contemporaneous summer SST anomalies is complicated in the observed system by air/sea coupling and large-scale induced variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation feeding back onto the monsoon through development of the Somali Jet. Comparison of HadGEM3 coupled and atmosphere-only configurations suggests coupled model cold SST biases significantly reduce monsoon rainfall. Idealised atmosphere-only experiments show that the weakened monsoon can be mainly attributed to systematic Arabian Sea cold SST biases during summer and their impact on the monsoon-moisture relationship. The impact of large cold SST biases on atmospheric moisture content over the Arabian Sea, and also the subsequent reduced latent heat release over India, dominates over any enhancement in the land-sea temperature gradient and results in changes to the mean state. We hypothesize that a cold base state will result in underestimation of the impact of larger projected Arabian Sea SST changes in future climate, suggesting that Arabian Sea biases should be a clear target for model development.

Sea-surface temperature records of Termination 1 in the Gulf of California: Challenges for seasonal and interannual analogues of tropical Pacific climate change

Centennial-scale records of sea-surface temperature and opal composition spanning the Last Glacial Maximum and Termination 1 (circa 25–6 ka) are presented here from Guaymas Basin in the Gulf of California. Through the application of two organic geochemistry proxies, the U37K′ index and the TEX86H index, we present evidence for rapid, stepped changes in temperatures during deglaciation. These occur in both temperature proxies at 13 ka (∼3°C increase in 270 years), 10.0 ka (∼2°C decrease over ∼250 years) and at 8.2 ka (3°C increase in <200 years). An additional rapid warming step is also observed in TEX86H at 11.5 ka. In comparing the two temperature proxies and opal content, we consider the potential for upwelling intensity to be recorded and link this millennial-scale variability to shifting Intertropical Convergence Zone position and variations in the strength of the Subtropical High. The onset of the deglacial warming from 17 to 18 ka is comparable to a “southern hemisphere” signal, although the opal record mimics the ice-rafting events of the north Atlantic (Heinrich events). Neither the modern seasonal cycle nor El Niño/Southern Oscillation patterns provide valid analogues for the trends we observe in comparison with other regional records. Fully coupled climate model simulations confirm this result, and in combination we question whether the seasonal or interannual climate variations of the modern climate are valid analogues for the glacial and deglacial tropical Pacific.

THE SOUTHERN BRAZILIAN SHELF: GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS, QUATERNARY EVOLUTION AND SEDIMENT DISTRIBUTION

Extending from latitude 34 degrees S to 22 degrees S the Southern Brazilian shelf constitutes the only part of the Brazilian shelf with a subtropical to temperate environment. The studies on the different geological aspects of the area began in the 1960`s and have recently been reassessed after studies related to the determination of the Economic Exclusive Zone. In terms of morphology, the Southern Brazilian shelf may be divided into three sectors, the Sao Paulo Bight, the Florianopolis-Mostardas Sector and the Rio Grande Cone, characterized by conspicuous differences in terms of geological determining factors, bathymetry, declivities and the presence of canyons and channels. Despite the existence of hundreds of radiocarbon datings the sea level changes curve of southern Brazil during the Last Glacial Cycle is still a matter of debate. A recent controversy on the Middle and late Holocene sea level changes curve raised the question of the amplitude of the oscillations which occurred in the period. Also, a few but relatively consistent radiocarbon datings suggest the occurrence of a high sea level during Isotope Stage 3. In terms of sedimentary cover the Southern Brazilian shelf exhibits a very strong hydrodynamic control, both latitudinal and bathymetrical. The sector southward from 25 degrees S is characterized by the influence of the plume of water carrying sediments originating from the Rio de La Plata. Actually its presence is conspicuous up to 28 degrees S, with the area between this latitude and 25 degrees S constituting a transitional zone. In terms of bathymetry the outer shelf is marked by the ""floor-polisher"" effect of the Brazil Current, which is responsible for the maintenance of a relict facies in areas deeper than 100 meters.

The effect of Antarctic sea ice on the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere during the southern summer

This study examines the influence of Antarctic sea ice distribution on the large scale circulation of the Southern Hemisphere using a fully coupled GCM where the sea ice submodel is replaced by a climatology of observed extremes in sea ice concentration. Three 150-year simulations were completed for maximum, minimum and average sea ice concentrations and the results for the austral summer (January-March) were compared using the surface temperatures forced by the sea ice distributions as a filter for creating the composite differences. The results indicate that in the austral summer the polar cell expands (contracts) under minimum (maximum) sea ice conditions with corresponding shifts in the midlatitude Ferrell cell. We suggest that this response occurs because sea ice lies in the margin between the polar and midlatitude cells. The polarity of the Southern Hemisphere Annular (SAM) mode is also influenced such that when sea ice is at a minimum (maximum) the polarity of the SAM tends to be negative (positive).

Validating NCAR-CCSM last glacial maximum sea surface temperature in the tropical and South Atlantic with proxy-data

Last Glacial Maximum simulated sea surface temperature from the Paleo-Climate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Coupled Climate Model (NCAR-CCSM) are compared with available reconstructions and data-based products in the tropical and south Atlantic region. Model results are compared to data proxies based on the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean surface product (MARGO). Results show that the model sea surface temperature is not consistent with the proxy-data in all of the region of interest. Discrepancies are found in the eastern, equatorial and in the high-latitude South Atlantic. The model overestimates the cooling in the southern South Atlantic (near 50 degrees S) shown by the proxy-data. Near the equator, model and proxies are in better agreement. In the eastern part of the equatorial basin the model underestimates the cooling shown by all proxies. A northward shift in the position of the subtropical convergence zone in the simulation suggests a compression or/and an equatorward shift of the subtropical gyre at the surface, consistent with what is observed in the proxy reconstruction. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Spatial Patterns in Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Chlorophyll and Sea Surface Temperature in the California Current

Physical forcing and biological response within the California Current System (CCS) are highly variable over a wide range of scales. Satellite remote sensing offers the only feasible means of quantifying this variability over the full extent of the CCS. Using six years (1997-2003) of daily SST and chlorophyll imagery, we map the spatial dependence of dominant temporal variability at resolutions sufficient to identify recurrent mesoscale circulation and local pattern associated with coastal topography. Here we describe mean seasonal cycles and interannual variation; intraseasonal variability is left to a companion paper ( K. R. Legaard and A. C. Thomas, manuscript in preparation, 2006). Coastal upwelling dictates seasonality along north-central California, where weak cycles of SST fluctuate between spring minima and late summer maxima and chlorophyll peaks in early summer. Off northern California, chlorophyll maxima are bounded offshore by the seasonally recurrent upwelling jet. Seasonal cycles differ across higher latitudes and in the midlatitude Southern California Bight, where upwelling winds are less vigorous and/or persistent. Seasonality along south-central Baja is strongly affected by processes other than upwelling, despite year-round upwelling-favorable winds. Interannual variation is generally dominated by El Nino and La Nina conditions. Interannual SST variance is greatest along south-central Baja, although interannual variability constitutes a greater fraction of total variance inshore along southern Oregon and much of California. Patterns of interannual chlorophyll variance are consistent with dominant forcing through the widespread depression and elevation of the nutricline during El Nino and La Nina, respectively. Interannual variability constitutes a greater fraction of total chlorophyll variance offshore.

Satellite-Derived Variability in Chlorophyll, Wind Stress, Sea Surface Height, and Temperature in the Northern California Current System

Satellite-derived data provide the temporal means and seasonal and nonseasonal variability of four physical and biological parameters off Oregon and Washington ( 41 degrees - 48.5 degrees N). Eight years of data ( 1998 - 2005) are available for surface chlorophyll concentrations, sea surface temperature ( SST), and sea surface height, while six years of data ( 2000 - 2005) are available for surface wind stress. Strong cross-shelf and alongshore variability is apparent in the temporal mean and seasonal climatology of all four variables. Two latitudinal regions are identified and separated at 44 degrees - 46 degrees N, where the coastal ocean experiences a change in the direction of the mean alongshore wind stress, is influenced by topographic features, and has differing exposure to the Columbia River Plume. All these factors may play a part in defining the distinct regimes in the northern and southern regions. Nonseasonal signals account for similar to 60 - 75% of the dynamical variables. An empirical orthogonal function analysis shows stronger intra-annual variability for alongshore wind, coastal SST, and surface chlorophyll, with stronger interannual variability for surface height. Interannual variability can be caused by distant forcing from equatorial and basin-scale changes in circulation, or by more localized changes in regional winds, all of which can be found in the time series. Correlations are mostly as expected for upwelling systems on intra-annual timescales. Correlations of the interannual timescales are complicated by residual quasi-annual signals created by changes in the timing and strength of the seasonal cycles. Examination of the interannual time series, however, provides a convincing picture of the covariability of chlorophyll, surface temperature, and surface height, with some evidence of regional wind forcing.

Spatial Patterns of Intraseasonal Variability of Chlorophyll and Sea Surface Temperature in the California Current

Six years of daily satellite data are used to quantify and map intraseasonal variability of chlorophyll and sea surface temperature (SST) in the California Current. We define intraseasonal variability as temporal variation remaining after removal of interannual variability and stationary seasonal cycles. Semivariograms are used to quantify the temporal structure of residual time series. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of semivariograms calculated across the region isolate dominant scales and corresponding spatial patterns of intraseasonal variability. The mode 1 EOFs for both chlorophyll and SST semivariograms indicate a dominant timescale of similar to 60 days. Spatial amplitudes and patterns of intraseasonal variance derived from mode 1 suggest dominant forcing of intraseasonal variability through distortion of large scale chlorophyll and SST gradients by mesoscale circulation. Intraseasonal SST variance is greatest off southern Baja and along southern Oregon and northern California. Chlorophyll variance is greatest over the shelf and slope, with elevated values closely confined to the Baja shelf and extending farthest from shore off California and the Pacific Northwest. Intraseasonal contributions to total SST variability are strongest near upwelling centers off southern Oregon and northern California, where seasonal contributions are weak. Intraseasonal variability accounts for the majority of total chlorophyll variance in most inshore areas save for southern Baja, where seasonal cycles dominate. Contributions of higher EOF modes to semivariogram structure indicate the degree to which intraseasonal variability is shifted to shorter timescales in certain areas. Comparisons of satellite-derived SST semivariograms to those calculated from co-located and concurrent buoy SST time series show similar features.

Relative abundance and ranges of selected diatoms from Pliocene-Pleistocene sections of ODP Leg 177, Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean

During Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 177, seven sites were drilled aligned on a transect across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. The primary scientific objective of Leg 177 was the study of the Cenozoic paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic history of the southern high latitudes and its relationship with the Antarctic cryosphere development. Of special emphasis was the recovery of Pliocene-Pleistocene sections, allowing paleoceanographic studies at millennial or higher time resolution, and the establishment of refined biostratigraphic zonations tied to the geomagnetic polarity record and stable isotope records. At most sites, multiple holes were drilled to ensure complete recovery of the section. A description of the recovered sections and the construction of a multihole splice for the establishment of a continuous composite is presented in the Leg 177 Initial Reports volume for each of the sites (Gersonde, Hodell, Blum, et al., 1999). Here we present the relative abundance pattern and the stratigraphic ranges of diatom taxa encountered from shore-based light microscope studies completed on the Pliocene-Pleistocene sequences from six of the drilled sites (Sites 1089-1094). No shore-based diatom studies have been conducted on the Pliocene-Pleistocene sediments obtained at Site 1088, located on the northern crest of the Agulhas Ridge, because of the scattered occurrence and poor preservation of diatoms in these sections (Shipboard Scientific Party, 1999b). The data included in our report present the baseline of a diatom biostratigraphic study of Zielinski and Gersonde (2002), which (1) includes a refinement of the southern high-latitude Pliocene-Pleistocene diatom zonation, in particular for the middle and late Pleistocene, and (2) presents a biostratigraphic framework for the establishment of age models of the recovered sediment sections. Zielinski and Gersonde (2002) correlated the diatom ranges with the geomagnetic polarity record established shipboard (Sites 1090 and 1092) (Shipboard Scientific Party, 1999c, 1999d) and on shore (Sites 1089, 1091, 1093, and 1094) by Channell and Stoner (2002). The Pliocene-Pleistocene diatom zonation proposed by Zielinski and Gersonde (2002) relies on a diatom zonation from Gersonde and Bárcena (1998) for the northern belt of the Southern Ocean. Because of latitudinal differentiation of sea-surface temperature, nutrients, and salinity between Antarctic and Subantarctic/subtropical water masses, the Pliocene-Pleistocene stratigraphic marker diatoms are not uniformly distributed in the Southern Ocean (Fenner, 1991; Gersonde and Bárcena, 1998). As a consequence, Zielinski and Gersonde (2002) propose two diatom zonations for application in the Antarctic Zone south of the Polar Front (Southern Zonation, Sites 1094 and 1093) and the area encompassing the Polar Front Zone (PFZ) and the Subantarctic Zone (Northern Zonation, Sites 1089-1092). This accounts especially for the Pleistocene zonation where Hemidiscus karstenii, whose first abundant occurrence datum and last occurrence datum defines the subzonation of the northern Thalassiosira lentiginosa Zone, occurs only sporadically in the cold-water realm south of the PFZ and thus is not applicable in sections from this area. However, newly established marker species assigned to the genus Rouxia (Rouxia leventerae and Rouxia constricta) are more related to cold-water environments and allow a refinement of the Pleistocene stratigraphic zonation for the southern cold areas. A study relying on quantitative counts of both Rouxia species confirms the utility of these stratigraphic markers for the identification of sequences attributed to marine isotope Stages 6 and 8 in the southern Southern Ocean (Zielinski et al., 2002).

Foraminifer counts in core JM01-1199, and review of radiocarbon ages in the Norwegian-Barents Sea-Svalbard margin

We compare six high-resolution Holocene, sediment cores along a S-N transect on the Norwegian-Svalbard continental margin from ca 60°N to 77.4°N, northern North Atlantic. Planktonic foraminifera in the cores were investigated to show the changes in upper surface and subsurface water mass distribution and properties, including summer sea-surface temperatures (SST). The cores are located below the axis of the Norwegian Current and the West Spitsbergen Current, which today transport warm Atlantic Water to the Arctic. Sediment accumulation rates are generally high at all the core sites, allowing for a temporal resolution of 10-102 years. SST is reconstructed using different types of transfer functions, resulting in very similar SST trends, with deviations of no more than +- 1.0/1.5 °C. A transfer function based on the maximum likelihood statistical approach is found to be most relevant. The reconstruction documents an abrupt change in planktonic foraminiferal faunal composition and an associated warming at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition. The earliest part of the Holocene was characterized by large temperature variability, including the Preboreal Oscillations and the 8.2 k event. In general, the early Holocene was characterized by SSTs similar to those of today in the south and warmer than today in the north, and a smaller S-N temperature gradient (0.23 °C/°N) compared to the present temperature gradient (0.46 °C/°N). The southern proxy records (60-69°N) were more strongly influenced by slightly cooler subsurface water probably due to the seasonality of the orbital forcing and increased stratification due to freshening. The northern records (72-77.4°N) display a millennial-scale change associated with reduced insolation and a gradual weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The observed northwards amplification of the early Holocene warming is comparable to the pattern of recent global warming and future climate modelling, which predicts greater warming at higher latitudes. The overall trend during mid and late Holocene was a cooling in the north, stable or weak warming in the south, and a maximum S-N SST gradient of ca 0.7 °C/°N at 5000 cal. years BP. Superimposed on this trend were several abrupt temperature shifts. Four of these shifts, dated to 9000-8000, 5500-3000 and 1000 and ~400 cal. years BP, appear to be global, as they correlate with periods of global climate change. In general, there is a good correlation between the northern North Atlantic temperature records and climate records from Norway and Svalbard.

Age models of sediment cores from the Southern Ocean

Recent geochemical models invoke ocean alkalinity changes, particularly in the surface Southern Ocean, to explain glacial age pCO2 reduction. In such models, alkalinity increases in glacial periods are driven by reductions in North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) supply, which lead to increases in deep-water nutrients and dissolution of carbonate sediments, and to increased alkalinity of Circumpolar Deep Water upwelling in the surface Southern Ocean. We use cores from the Southeast Indian Ridge and from the deep Cape Basin in the South Atlantic to show that carbonate dissolution was enhanced during glacial stages in areas now bathed by Circumpolar Deep Water. This suggests that deep Southern Ocean carbonate ion concentrations were lower in glacial stages than in interglacials, rather than higher as suggested by the polar alkalinity model [Broecker and Peng, 1989, doi:10.1029/GB001i001p00015]. Our observations show that changes in Southern Ocean CaCO3 preservation are coherent with changes in the relative flux of NADW, suggesting that Southern Ocean carbonate chemistry is closely linked to changes in deepwater circulation. The pattern of enhanced dissolution in glacials is consistent with a reduction in the supply of nutrient-depleted water (NADW) to the Southern Ocean and with an increase of nutrients in deep water masses. Carbonate mass accumulation rates on the Southeast Indian Ridge (3200-3800 m), and in relatively shallow cores (<3000 m) from the Kerguelen Plateau and the South Pacific were significantly reduced during glacial stages, by about 50%. The reduced carbonate mass accumulation rates and enhanced dissolution during glacials may be partly due to decreases in CaCO3:Corg flux ratios, acting as another mechanism which would raise the alkalinity of Southern Ocean surface waters. The polar alkalinity model assumes that the ratio of organic carbon to carbonate production on surface alkalinity is constant. Even if overall productivity in the Southern Ocean were held constant, a decrease in the CaCO3:Corg ratio would result in increased alkalinity and reduced pCO2 in Southern Ocean surface waters during glacials. This ecologically driven surface alkalinity change may enhance deepwater-mediated changes in alkalinity, and amplify rapid changes in pCO2.